TRUMP - IS THE NARRATIVE CHANGING?

In what should have been Trump’s greatest achievement - an oversea trip where he made no gaffes, stuck to script and was generally well received - disaster after disaster just mounted back home. While he soured it at the end by attacking American allies, juxtaposing his lecturing them while not lecturing the dictators of the Middle East, by the low bar set for him it was a triumph. Ironically, for this President, the headlines were dominated not by him but by escalating problems with Russia-gate, the wheels falling off his Affordable Health Care Act, (AHCA), his sloppy, grossly inaccurate and callous Budget Proposals, which John McCain among other Republicans proclaimed dead on arrival, and worsening poll numbers. The question still remains whether his base will stick by him even though, thus far, he has delivered only circuses and no bread.

NEWT TO THE RESCUE

All this lead to a plaintiff cry by discarded Trump operative Newt Gingrich that the media missed “the first draft of history” by not reporting the earth shattering revelation that Trump had exhorted fifty Muslim countries to take the lead in eradicating terrorism. Newt claimed that not since 1982 had the world witnessed such an earth shattering event when Ronald Reagan stood in the Royal Palace of Westminster and exhorted the West to rally in the defense of freedom and against Communist aggression. Besides talking utter banal tripe Newt, who has finally been rewarded with something - an ambassadorship for his wife Callista to the Vatican no less -  Newt got it right. The headlines, back home were dominated by Trump’s woes and for the most part his oversea visit was relegated to page two. Background pieces were on Watergate rather than Trump foreign policy philosophy. 

Newt omitted that Trump’s simplification of the Israeli - Palestinian dispute and his naive belief that he has the answer is going to just complicate that situation. Then he might have commented on the fact that Trump is far nicer to Russia whom America has sanctioned  and who interfered in the American Presidential elections than he was to his allies in NATO.

EARLY SIGNS OF DISAFFECTION

Up till now Trump was holding the embarrassed Republican legislative team together by his base support standing firm as well as the Republican body politic generally hanging in there. In addition there was always the hope, voiced by House Speaker Ryan, that some meaningful Republican legislation would be passed and signed. Well the polls numbers are beginning to change. While Trump received forty six percent of the electorate’s votes his approval numbers had settled at forty percent come hell or high water. It was reckoned that was enough to be able to control the Republican Primaries. That number is now consistently slipping into the high thirty percent figure. In addition less than eighty percent of the Republicans approve of his Presidency. 

These lowering approval numbers are more significant relating to issues surrounding the Trump Presidency. Sixty percent, according to a Fox poll, believe he axed Comey to stop the Russian investigation. A similar percentage support Obamacare rather than Trumpcare. The pressure against his AHCA is widespread with only thirty percent of Americans approving of it. Besides the Democrats shouting the odds there hasn’t been a Republican TownHall meeting where the legislator hasn't been  hammered for his support of it. The Republican Senate have served notice that they are starting health care legislation over again. 

At the end of the day all the exposes and the beating of breasts at the Trump incompetence, lies and backtracking mean nothing if the electorate don't reflect their discontent at the hustings. So every indicator to the latter possibility is analyzed and reanalyzed. For what it is worth two profoundly Republican State Legislature seats in New York and New Hampshire swung Democrat, the latter for the first time since 1913. A House of Representative bye election in Kansas, where Trump had won by thirty percent, was narrowly retained by the Republicans. The Montana bye election showed that even though the Trump majority was slashed by more than half there were enough diehards to re elect the Republican to Congress.

For what it is worth Fox News has been third in ratings this past week losing first place, to MSNBC, for the first time in over a decade and the top newscaster now is MSNBC’S liberal, Rachel Maddow .

RUSSIA - GATE IS ESCALATING

What dominated the news was ongoing revelations on the impact that the Russians had on the Presidential election and the liaisons team Trump had with the Russian saboteurs. This was made all the worse by Trump’s damning statement, in the Oval Office, to the Russian Foreign Minister and Ambassador Kislyak that he had axed the “nut job” FBI Director Comey who was a great pressure on him. He was now free to negotiate with Russia. All that in the context of what was revealed in the week that he was “making history” in the Middle East.

If the fired Assistant Attorney General Sally Yates riveted the nation’s attention to the Trump Administration’s disregard to the security threat posed by the Russians vis a vis his National Security Advisor Mike Flynn, the former CIA Director John Brennan upped the anti as to the perfidy and threat posed by Trump’s newest best friends. (The ones he fired Comey for). Once again the intelligence chief confirmed that Russia attempted to influence the US Presidential elections in Trump’s favor. Brennan made it quite clear that the Russians continuously targeted and connected with members of the Trump campaign as well as spreading disinformation. One of their objectives was to make targets, wittingly or unwittingly, their proxies in their operation. 

The former CIA Director’s testimony gained increased significance when it was leaked a day or to later that two of their specific targets were Paul Manafort, the early campaign manager, and good old Mike Flynn. The jolt became that much greater when another report stated that what precipitated Comey’s inappropriate public intervention in the Clinton e mail investigation was “fake” intelligence planted by the Russians. The narrative was hitting closer and closer to home as it is widely accepted by the Clinton camp, that it was the former FBI Director’s injudicious intrusions into the campaign that lost her the Presidency. 

Adding fuel to the Russiagate fire was the growing pressure being exerted on Flynn to provide documentation of his activities. His companies were subpoenaed for relevant paperwork. It was argued that the corporations could not plead the fifth amendment as Flynn had. Flynn’s attorney, in asking earlier for immunity, offered that he had a great story to tell. Then another report surfaced that Jared Kushner was being investigated by the FBI. Kushner, unlike Manafort and Flynn, had offered to tell the Congress investigating committees all he knew about Russia. However, it has to be very telling that the person closest to Trump has already been labelled by special counsel Mueller within a few days of his appointment as a person of interest.

All this was happening with the talk of Trump connections to Russian oligarchs growing louder and louder in concert with the echoing of the Watergate mantra - “Follow the Money”. Trump is not helping his cause by appointing his personal lawyer to act for him in relation to possible impeachment proceedings, thereby reminding everyone that his counsel also represents a key Russian oligarch who is very close to Putin. 

While every day leaks emerge which add to the grim picture. Also hanging over Trump is the knowledge that fired Director Comey is scheduled to testify to Congress. The memos Comey created after each interaction with the President and other Trump actors will not be offered to Congress on the instructions of Special Counsel Mueller. This has to be jolting to Trump because the probable reason for this is an investigation for obstruction of justice. 

AFFORDABLE HEALTH CARE ACT, (AHCA) AKA TRUMPCARE and THE PRESIDENT’S BUDGET PROPOSAL

The AHCA  which has already had been laughed off by the Republican Senate received another major setback with the analysis from the Congressional Budget Office. The latter maintained that twenty three million Americans would lose their insurance. There would be increased premiums for the poorer, the elderly and those with preexisting conditions. Medicaid over ten years would be cut by $834 billion. The only citizens to benefit would be the wealthy who would receive a tax cut with the money saved. This explains Ryan’s urgency to pass the AHCA by the slimmest of majorities before this report saw the light of day as the savings were needed for the budget.

Trump’s budget proposal has been laughed out of court. The most glaring mistake was that in the $4.1 billion budget there was a $2 billion error which distorted the Trump projections favorably. Another assumption was that there would be a three percent growth of the economy - an analysis that very few economists believe possible. So with those faulty assumptions massive tax cuts were proposed for the wealthy. In the process every welfare program is eviscerated as is education. The rationale for the tax deductions for the wealthy was explained by the WhiteHouse Budget Director as affording “compassion” to the tax payer who finances welfare.  

AT THE END OF THE DAY

* Trump who is under massive pressure and investigation over his Russian connections, unashamedly, still is hostile to his NATO  allies.

* The Trump Presidency, in spite of the Republicans controlling both Legislative Houses, has no legislative achievement to date. In addition there is nothing on the horizon to indicate that this will change.

* Trump will survive regardless of investigations unless the GOP legislators’ perceive that their constituencies have abandoned him. The best indicator will be in the Georgia bye election as that constituency is most reflective of urban Republican support. 

* There is no hope for a budget passage before health care legislation is passed. Trump needs the near trillion savings on Medicaid to be available for his tax cuts. Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader has publicly confessed that he doesn’t know he can get fifty votes for a GOP health care proposal.

* What has changed in the world of optics is that Trump no longer can dominate the narrative, his scandals have overtaken him.