MANDELA’S ANC IS DEAD

At a meeting of their National Executive Committee, (NEC), the African National Congress, (ANC), the proud liberation party of South Africa that fought for and achieved a democratic and non racial South Africa, was declared dead. The ailing Party had been on life support for years with the ghosts of Nobel Peace Laureates Albert Luthuli and Nelson Mandela hovering around in the hope that their Party would continue to midwife a non racial society and in the process raise the standard of living and bring good government to all. There are no other freedom organizations boasting three Nobel Peace Laureates, the third being being Archbishop Tutu, who has publicly prayed for the death of the ANC. (Blog: “Mandela’s South Africa - One Minute Before Midnight”). His prayers have been finally answered. So the passing of the ANC represents the death of idealism that had served as an inspiration to the world. 

This doesn’t mean that democracy in South Africa is dead but it does mean that the ANC in its present form will not be able to salvage it. The party is racked with cronyism, corruption and if it’s leader Jacob Zuma has his way it would degenerate South Africa into a third world basket case. 

ALL HOPES WERE ON THE NEC MEETING

It was at this weekend’s meeting of the National Executive Committee of the ANC that it was hoped that a motion of no confidence would be passed on it’s current leader and President, Jacob Zuma. Hopes were high that the NEC would deliver as they had done in ending the Presidency of Thabo Mbeki. There were pointers that the Zuma opponents had the majority of votes and South Africa’s currency, the rand, had strengthened, in anticipation.  

The ANC top brass gathering was held against the backdrop of widening opposition to the current President. Two of the ANC partners, the Trade Union Organization, COSATU and the South African Communist Party, (SACP), had disavowed the increasingly isolated leader. His axing of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan who was serving as a brake on his moves to bankrupt the country with his dubious schemes which reeked of corruption and kickbacks had precipitated a financial crisis. The aftermath was a countrywide protest of unprecedented proportions that mobilized every corner of the country. The fact that all this had not phased the leader one jot was all the more reason that he had to go. The Gordhan decision resulted in the currency plunging and a downgrade of South African bonds to junk status. (Blog: “Zuma Plunges South African Rand Into Crisis”).

There is of course, in addition to COSATU and the SACP the long suffering SA Council of Churches, that has stood behind the ANC through thick and thin that have finally baled out as have a wide-ranging section of academics.

Zuma has unashamedly run rough shod on the country’s constitution exhibiting, hitherto unwitnessed, cronyism and corruption. His venal ways and in conjunction with a family of thugs  are slowly but surely taking over all the state means of production in a style reminiscent of Putin and his oligarchs. This has made his exit all that more urgent. Had this veto on the State President materialized it would have lead to the scheduled vote of no confidence in Parliament being passed. The latter sanction has now next to no chance of being accepted.

The NEC decision not only didn't back his departure they stated that the attack on Zuma was a thinly veiled assault on the ANC itself thereby allying the ANC with this one man wrecking ball. In so doing they intoned the epitaph on the grave of the once great Party.

ZUMA HAS POPULATED STATE INSTITUTIONS WITH YES MEN

Zuma has been in power for eight years in which time he has slowly but surely recruited yes men onto his gravy train. He has eliminated agencies that investigated crimes and abuses of power. Even his judicial appointments have raised eyebrows. Thus far the only Governmental brakes to his march to dictatorship have been the Judiciary, the Constitution and the Court that interprets it. There are the still the non governmental institutions that rally round the forces of right. The media so instrumental in the crashing of apartheid, though still free, are to a large extent pale shadows of their former selves in exposing and attacking Zuma’s despotism.

The last hope for Zuma’s immediate exit is the parliamentary no confidence debate. To succeed seventy members of the ruling ANC would have to split ranks - an action called by the pitiful ANC as counter revolutionary. (The NEC also resorted to the old canard that much of the opposition to Zuma came from foreign agents). Jay H. Ell would like to pass on some political advice to those in the ANC who have opposed Zuma - defy the ANC hierarchy and vote for the no confidence motion. As a result of your opposition to Baas Zuma you days in the ANC are numbered anyway. In the event that the ANC are voted out in 2019 you could be part of the new dispensation. 

THE ENDGAME

The NEC by not taking steps to rectify the Zuma delinquency have irretrievably split the Party and its alliances. There is nothing left but a shell manned by party operatives - no trade unions, loss of all those ANC stalwarts that brought about the bloodless revolution, including the Communist Party, abandonment by the academics and a broad swath of its own electorate - as the protests and the recent Municipal and bye elections have shown. According to the latest Bloomberg poll two thirds of ANC members want him to quit. 

Even assuming that in 2018 Zuma’s anointed successor, one of his wives, doesn’t get elected leader of the ANC and Cyril Ramaphosa assumes the mantle, it really is to late. By that stage Ramaphosa would have lost what credibility he still has in a Party that now has none. His best bet, too, would be to vote against Zuma in the no confidence debate and hopefully take other leading lights such as Gordhan with him and form some coalition with the Democratic Alliance’s Mmusi Maimame. It is worthwhile reflecting that the ANC’s share of the vote dropped to 54% in the recent Municipal bye elections and they lost the Mayoral Offices of nearly every big city in South Africa. (Blog: Mandela’s Vision Resurfaces in South African Elections”). Although it has to be unthinkable for many to vote against the Party of Liberation many have already taken the plunge.

Then of course Zuma can win his vote of no confidence and shepherd in his ex good lady, Ms Dlamini Zuma as the future leader of the emasculated ANC and as President of South Africa. He can take up residence in Dubai where his good friends the Guptas through their good offices have obtained him citizenship. From there he can watch from a distance South Africa sink into the swamp of corruption and cronyism that is his legacy.

One crowd that have to be pleased with the outcome of the ANC Meeting have to be the opposition. If they had to chose a candidate to run against it would be Jacob Zuma. And if they had to pick a Party to run against it would be one that claimed that attacks on Jacob Zuma are attacks on the Party itself.

Whichever way you look at it Mandela’s ANC is dead. Also deceased is the giddy idealism and hope that the freedom movement heralded, not only for South Africa but for the world.

 ,

TRUMP - IS THE NARRATIVE CHANGING?

In what should have been Trump’s greatest achievement - an oversea trip where he made no gaffes, stuck to script and was generally well received - disaster after disaster just mounted back home. While he soured it at the end by attacking American allies, juxtaposing his lecturing them while not lecturing the dictators of the Middle East, by the low bar set for him it was a triumph. Ironically, for this President, the headlines were dominated not by him but by escalating problems with Russia-gate, the wheels falling off his Affordable Health Care Act, (AHCA), his sloppy, grossly inaccurate and callous Budget Proposals, which John McCain among other Republicans proclaimed dead on arrival, and worsening poll numbers. The question still remains whether his base will stick by him even though, thus far, he has delivered only circuses and no bread.

NEWT TO THE RESCUE

All this lead to a plaintiff cry by discarded Trump operative Newt Gingrich that the media missed “the first draft of history” by not reporting the earth shattering revelation that Trump had exhorted fifty Muslim countries to take the lead in eradicating terrorism. Newt claimed that not since 1982 had the world witnessed such an earth shattering event when Ronald Reagan stood in the Royal Palace of Westminster and exhorted the West to rally in the defense of freedom and against Communist aggression. Besides talking utter banal tripe Newt, who has finally been rewarded with something - an ambassadorship for his wife Callista to the Vatican no less -  Newt got it right. The headlines, back home were dominated by Trump’s woes and for the most part his oversea visit was relegated to page two. Background pieces were on Watergate rather than Trump foreign policy philosophy. 

Newt omitted that Trump’s simplification of the Israeli - Palestinian dispute and his naive belief that he has the answer is going to just complicate that situation. Then he might have commented on the fact that Trump is far nicer to Russia whom America has sanctioned  and who interfered in the American Presidential elections than he was to his allies in NATO.

EARLY SIGNS OF DISAFFECTION

Up till now Trump was holding the embarrassed Republican legislative team together by his base support standing firm as well as the Republican body politic generally hanging in there. In addition there was always the hope, voiced by House Speaker Ryan, that some meaningful Republican legislation would be passed and signed. Well the polls numbers are beginning to change. While Trump received forty six percent of the electorate’s votes his approval numbers had settled at forty percent come hell or high water. It was reckoned that was enough to be able to control the Republican Primaries. That number is now consistently slipping into the high thirty percent figure. In addition less than eighty percent of the Republicans approve of his Presidency. 

These lowering approval numbers are more significant relating to issues surrounding the Trump Presidency. Sixty percent, according to a Fox poll, believe he axed Comey to stop the Russian investigation. A similar percentage support Obamacare rather than Trumpcare. The pressure against his AHCA is widespread with only thirty percent of Americans approving of it. Besides the Democrats shouting the odds there hasn’t been a Republican TownHall meeting where the legislator hasn't been  hammered for his support of it. The Republican Senate have served notice that they are starting health care legislation over again. 

At the end of the day all the exposes and the beating of breasts at the Trump incompetence, lies and backtracking mean nothing if the electorate don't reflect their discontent at the hustings. So every indicator to the latter possibility is analyzed and reanalyzed. For what it is worth two profoundly Republican State Legislature seats in New York and New Hampshire swung Democrat, the latter for the first time since 1913. A House of Representative bye election in Kansas, where Trump had won by thirty percent, was narrowly retained by the Republicans. The Montana bye election showed that even though the Trump majority was slashed by more than half there were enough diehards to re elect the Republican to Congress.

For what it is worth Fox News has been third in ratings this past week losing first place, to MSNBC, for the first time in over a decade and the top newscaster now is MSNBC’S liberal, Rachel Maddow .

RUSSIA - GATE IS ESCALATING

What dominated the news was ongoing revelations on the impact that the Russians had on the Presidential election and the liaisons team Trump had with the Russian saboteurs. This was made all the worse by Trump’s damning statement, in the Oval Office, to the Russian Foreign Minister and Ambassador Kislyak that he had axed the “nut job” FBI Director Comey who was a great pressure on him. He was now free to negotiate with Russia. All that in the context of what was revealed in the week that he was “making history” in the Middle East.

If the fired Assistant Attorney General Sally Yates riveted the nation’s attention to the Trump Administration’s disregard to the security threat posed by the Russians vis a vis his National Security Advisor Mike Flynn, the former CIA Director John Brennan upped the anti as to the perfidy and threat posed by Trump’s newest best friends. (The ones he fired Comey for). Once again the intelligence chief confirmed that Russia attempted to influence the US Presidential elections in Trump’s favor. Brennan made it quite clear that the Russians continuously targeted and connected with members of the Trump campaign as well as spreading disinformation. One of their objectives was to make targets, wittingly or unwittingly, their proxies in their operation. 

The former CIA Director’s testimony gained increased significance when it was leaked a day or to later that two of their specific targets were Paul Manafort, the early campaign manager, and good old Mike Flynn. The jolt became that much greater when another report stated that what precipitated Comey’s inappropriate public intervention in the Clinton e mail investigation was “fake” intelligence planted by the Russians. The narrative was hitting closer and closer to home as it is widely accepted by the Clinton camp, that it was the former FBI Director’s injudicious intrusions into the campaign that lost her the Presidency. 

Adding fuel to the Russiagate fire was the growing pressure being exerted on Flynn to provide documentation of his activities. His companies were subpoenaed for relevant paperwork. It was argued that the corporations could not plead the fifth amendment as Flynn had. Flynn’s attorney, in asking earlier for immunity, offered that he had a great story to tell. Then another report surfaced that Jared Kushner was being investigated by the FBI. Kushner, unlike Manafort and Flynn, had offered to tell the Congress investigating committees all he knew about Russia. However, it has to be very telling that the person closest to Trump has already been labelled by special counsel Mueller within a few days of his appointment as a person of interest.

All this was happening with the talk of Trump connections to Russian oligarchs growing louder and louder in concert with the echoing of the Watergate mantra - “Follow the Money”. Trump is not helping his cause by appointing his personal lawyer to act for him in relation to possible impeachment proceedings, thereby reminding everyone that his counsel also represents a key Russian oligarch who is very close to Putin. 

While every day leaks emerge which add to the grim picture. Also hanging over Trump is the knowledge that fired Director Comey is scheduled to testify to Congress. The memos Comey created after each interaction with the President and other Trump actors will not be offered to Congress on the instructions of Special Counsel Mueller. This has to be jolting to Trump because the probable reason for this is an investigation for obstruction of justice. 

AFFORDABLE HEALTH CARE ACT, (AHCA) AKA TRUMPCARE and THE PRESIDENT’S BUDGET PROPOSAL

The AHCA  which has already had been laughed off by the Republican Senate received another major setback with the analysis from the Congressional Budget Office. The latter maintained that twenty three million Americans would lose their insurance. There would be increased premiums for the poorer, the elderly and those with preexisting conditions. Medicaid over ten years would be cut by $834 billion. The only citizens to benefit would be the wealthy who would receive a tax cut with the money saved. This explains Ryan’s urgency to pass the AHCA by the slimmest of majorities before this report saw the light of day as the savings were needed for the budget.

Trump’s budget proposal has been laughed out of court. The most glaring mistake was that in the $4.1 billion budget there was a $2 billion error which distorted the Trump projections favorably. Another assumption was that there would be a three percent growth of the economy - an analysis that very few economists believe possible. So with those faulty assumptions massive tax cuts were proposed for the wealthy. In the process every welfare program is eviscerated as is education. The rationale for the tax deductions for the wealthy was explained by the WhiteHouse Budget Director as affording “compassion” to the tax payer who finances welfare.  

AT THE END OF THE DAY

* Trump who is under massive pressure and investigation over his Russian connections, unashamedly, still is hostile to his NATO  allies.

* The Trump Presidency, in spite of the Republicans controlling both Legislative Houses, has no legislative achievement to date. In addition there is nothing on the horizon to indicate that this will change.

* Trump will survive regardless of investigations unless the GOP legislators’ perceive that their constituencies have abandoned him. The best indicator will be in the Georgia bye election as that constituency is most reflective of urban Republican support. 

* There is no hope for a budget passage before health care legislation is passed. Trump needs the near trillion savings on Medicaid to be available for his tax cuts. Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader has publicly confessed that he doesn’t know he can get fifty votes for a GOP health care proposal.

* What has changed in the world of optics is that Trump no longer can dominate the narrative, his scandals have overtaken him. 

TRUMP: THE ART OF THE SCHLEMIEL

As the sickening predictable train smash of the Trump Presidency thunders on it forces a revisit to the question of how on earth did this mean spirited buffoon and cheat become such a “very very rich” celebrity in the first place let alone the country’s first citizen. His life long behaviors, echoed in the Republican Primary and Presidential campaigns, presaged that once in Office it would be his way or the high way. He served notice from the get go that he either did not understand or care about the separation of powers between the executive, the legislative branch and the judiciary. He would bully, bluff and behave like a thug as he illustrated again and again on the trail. Most important he was the greatest deal maker of all time so he could Make America Great Again. His role model was strongman Vladimir Putin and he would reset American relations with the authoritarian dictatorship. How it would be done was all documented in his story, which was only second in popularity, to the bible - The Art of The Deal.

SIXTY MILLION VOTERS ENABLED TRUMP

In the final analysis is the Trump phenomenon just a reflection of America’s state of mind in that sixty million citizens cast their votes for him to be their President?   Put another way all these voters entrusted him to make life or death decisions on their behalf and accepted his half baked economic plans and unrealistic proposals as to how he would unscramble globalization. More sadly they either supported or ignored his racist and xenophobic message and endorsed his leadership. Then in spite of his unashamed sexist behavior over fifty percent of women voted for him. Most significantly the voters were prepared to overlook his authoritarian tendencies apparently convinced by his sales pitch. 

It can be argued that, in a disillusioned and frightened world, he promised nirvana. For example, in healthcare, he committed to give coverage with lower premiums for all Americans but the legislation he subsequently backed would eliminate over twenty million citizens who currently have medical insurance. He then would bring back millions of manufacturing jobs by several stratagems designed to boost American industry, These included, labeling China a currency manipulator, introducing a trillion dollar infrastructure job program, slapping a border tax on foreign made goods and eliminating the NAFTA trade agreement. He has done none of the latter. He”loved” coal and would reopen the coal mines - all this in the first 100 days. Then of course there is that ”beautiful” wall. He would clean the swamp unlike “Pay for Play” Hillary and on and on. 

What also was apparently so seductive to the masses was  he was his own man - self made he would have you believe. The Establishment shunned him and he shunned The Establishment. He was one of the masses - “The blue collar billionaire”. They just loved the way he told it the way it was - shot his mouth off with the first thing that came to his head! He was self assured so totally in control - a winner.

DONALD FAILS TO DELIVER TO HIS ENABLERS

Well what has he achieved? There have been his well publicized executive moves to ban Muslims from entering the country. Even this promise, which has been watered down to citizens of six Muslim countries, has been stalled in the courts. His wall has not only not been financed by Mexico, the Republican Congress has as yet not passed a penny for its construction.  As far as the promise to deport the eleven million illegals in the country, all that has been seen on television is the tawdry and shameful expulsion of lawful ‘illegals’ who were going for their mandatory visit with Immigration Authorities to prove that they have not broken the law.

Healthcare “reform” limped through in the House of Representatives but it was not what The Donald promised. (The Donald carries on as if it his vision that was passed). The Senate Republicans, if they ever get round to it, have indicated that there is a long road ahead for “Repeal and Replace Obamacare”. There is literally no hope that 51 out of 52 Republicans in the Senate will agree on any one Bill. There are enough on the left and right implacable to a middle of the road agreement. One major success with which he can be credited - the election of Supreme Court Judge Neil Gorsuch. By so doing he,“the libertine sinner and pussy grabber”, has satisfied the Evangelical faction of the GOP as their only agenda is that Roe v Wade is overturned. 

Now without repeal of Obamacare there is no money for his grand fiscal plans to reduce taxes and the like - not to mention the trillion he wants for infrastructure. And it is his fiscal approach that gives him his flimsy relationship with the Republican Establishment. Without that he is a political hybrid with no overriding philosophy other than meaningless slogans such as “America First” and “Make America Great Again”. His base incidentally has no connect with the Conservative Fiscal Policy of the Ryan Establishment. They want their Medicare and Social Security,                                     

So the only promise he really has delivered on is improving relations with Russia. Needless to say he has delivered nothing to his base.

THE RUSSIAN CONNECTION

The only consistent behavior from The Donald is his touching faith in Russia and it’s leader. What makes this observation so startling was that in the process of his romance it was revealed that Russia had undermined American Democracy by destabilizing the Presidential election. Although all seventeen intelligence agencies in the United States lead by the FBI, CIA and NSA all agreed that Russia had in effect declared war, to this day he still will not accept that it was the Russians that perpetrated the hacking. 

The reportage of his campaign’s contacts with the Russians are legion and just today Reuter’s broke a story which claimed that there had been at least eighteen additional undisclosed contacts between the Russians and the Trump campaign. Six of those were between Ambassador Kislyak and the campaign. One of the latter conversations involved General Flynn and dealt with the creation of a channel outside the regular security forums, who they didn’t trust, for chats between Putin and Trump.

In his dealings with Russia Trump has illustrated all his behaviors that he proudly displayed in the election campaign. He turned America into Trump Inc. He was the new boss and everyone in the Republican Party when asked to jump, answered, “How high?”

Besides his own unashamed fawning of Russia he surrounded himself with fellow travelers that in the real world defy logic. Before even discussing his cabal one myth has to be dispelled that he is loyal to those that are loyal to him. Just witness what happened to the three politicians that unreservedly and continuously gave him a semblance of credibility in the campaign - Rudi Giuliani, who begged to be Attorney General, Chris Christie, who withstood humiliation after humiliation, and Newt Gingrich who with his good lady Callista bowed and scraped.  Following his elevation to the Presidency, The Donald unceremoniously abandoned them. The Family of course is something different as they obviously believe that blood is thicker than water. 

So onto the dramatis personae that make his relationship with Russia that much more questionable.

THE CO CONSPIRATORS, THE RUSSIAN CONNECTION AND THE RESPONSE

The figure that conjures up the most concern is General Michael Flynn, who informed the Trump transition team headed by Vice President Mike Pence, (who is running out of plausible deniability), that he was being investigated by the FBI. President Obama warned Trump not to hire him and Sally Yates, then Deputy Attorney General, repeatedly cautioned that Flynn had lied about his discussions with the Russians to all including Vice President Pence. It was also common knowledge that he failed to report that he was a foreign agent and had received moneys from Russia and Turkey. Then after Yate’s final dire warning Trump inexplicably retained Flynn for another eighteen days. Flynn is ready to sing. He claims he has a big story to tell and will only “come clean” it if he is given immunity from prosecution. He has to be Trump’s biggest nightmare.

 Paul Manafort, Trump’s early campaign advisor has links up the ying yang to Putin’s allies and is also under investigation by the FBI. There are then are at least four other members of Team Trump, including his Attorney General Jeff Sessons, who had contact with the Russians. 

Flynn is obviously the key figure. This is evident if one looks at the lengths The Donald has gone  to protect and pander to him including having made him his Chief Security Advisor after learning that he was under FBI investigation. In addition to that:

* He fired Sally Yates.

* He asked FBI Director Comey to lay off investigating Flynn who was a good man.

* He set up the new Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein, to make it appear that it was the Deputy AG’s memorandum that was the cause of his firing Comey. Then the President left Rosenstein and his own WhiteHouse team hanging when he changed the reason he fired Comey from the memorandum on Comey to “The Russian Thing” (aka Flynn). Rosenstein, who was is now overseeing “The Russian Thing” investigation had originally publicly maintained that there was no need for an independent Special Counsel.

So The Donald thought that was that and the day after he met with the Russian Foreign Minister and Ambassador Kislyak, the chief Russian contact with his campaign team. Putin had asked him to hold the meeting was his explanation for this bizarre threesome. The American Press was excluded but Russian Tass was allowed in. They distributed the photo op pictures to the world. He gave his Russian guests top secret classified information, not even afforded to American allies. His explanation was as President he could do what he liked. When all hell broke lose Putin offered to be a character witness for him, having already backed him up on his firing of Comey.

THE AFTERMATH

Trump just didn’t realize, even if he is the President, that you just don’t do things like that when there is supposedly a separation of powers. More to the point there are consequences to his actions. He had offended Comey who has since spilled some of the goods he had on him.  

In the aftermath and revelations following the Comey firing, the Deputy Attorney General changed his mind about a special counsel and nominated one to investigate “Russiagate”. He appointed someone even more distinguished than Comey, the former FBI Director Robert Mueller. While both are considered honest and competent,  Mueller had not been involved in any controversies.

The Republicans in Congress were ecstatic as they were off the hook and suddenly joined the Democrats in saying what a jolly good idea a special counsel was. In addition the Republican Chairs of all the Congress Investigating Committees renewed their resolve to continue their own pursuits for the truth. They didn’t have to defend Trump anymore as the matter was sub judice. So let the chips fall where they must fall. They now could get on with legislation. In so doing they are putting distance between them and The President. What they are forgetting is that they still need Trump to sign into law their efforts and they have angered him big time by their unabashed glee.

Meanwhile Trump carries on interviewing for a new FBI Director. Two Republican politicians took themselves off the shortlist. The Senate, almost ad idem, have insisted that the appointee that they will ratify has to be totally independent. 

Trump has the power to fire Mueller but Jay H. Ell believes that the unfolding of recent events, including the optics and the narrative of the meeting with The Russians would force the GOP to agree to impeachment proceedings for obstruction of justice. 

Trump is screaming foul at the “unprecedented witch hunt” that has been unleashed on him. He can rightly maintain that just because he is paranoid doesn’t mean that everybody isn’t against him.

The current theory is follow the money. Real Estate deals and construction are favored ways for money laundering and corruption and that is the name of The Donald’s game. The pace is not going to slow down as revelations break daily from incredible teams of journalists in both the written and visual media. So watch this space.

Trump’s Art of the Deal tactics that require bullshit, bluff, lies, threats and bullying, but most of all being totally in control of the variables, don’t seem to working so well in this milieu. Come to think of it, they failed at least six times before in the real world and The Donald declared bankruptcy and started all over again. If you are axed from the Presidency there are no reruns.

However, Trump has one ace up his sleeve - his adoring base. This monolith does show early signs of cracking but while it remains in place, impeachment is a non starter. So there is still a long way to go. Trump has to be shown for what he is, an Emperor without clothes and a schlemiel. It can be done but it has to unfold, bit by bit, in the market place. The support of Nixon, who had been elected in a landslide, once he was shown to be a liar and a cheat, melted like ice. And Nixon was a saint when compared to Trump.

COMEY FIRED BY THE APPRENTICE PRESIDENT

The country is facing a historical moment as an investigation into Russian interference into the American democratic process has been allegedly obstructed by the President of the United States. If this is in fact so it is obstruction of justice, an impeachable offense.

All this is taking place in Donald Trump’s Presidency which is a thrill a minute. There is never enough time to fully analyze a Trump catastrophe as he rapidly catapults into the next one. So while everyone was digesting the stunning impact that, fired, Acting Attorney General Sally Yates had on revealing the incompetence of his Presidency, he fired FBI Director Comey thereby evincing even greater gasps of shock from a hardened body politic. The latter had been convinced, prior to that, there was nothing that el Presidente could ever do to surprise them again. Hopefully they have finally learned never to underestimate the ‘greatest President ever’s’ ability to outdo his latest outrageous act. 

It is salutary to reflect the subject matter of Counsellor Yates’s testimony - Trump’s incomprehensible delay at firing his Security Advisor General Flynn who had been found to have fraternized with the Russians. To add insult to injury Obama had warned him, months before, not to hire Flynn in the first place. But this was all hastily put down, by the Trump echo chamber. They spun that as Obama had ‘a thing’ about Flynn and couldn’t get on with him, he fired him. Simultaneously they argued that it was Obama that issued Flynn with a security clearance to be Trump’s chief security advisor! Yates of course was a Clinton partisan so what could you expect from her was the explicit argument on her damning evidence to the Senate Intelligence Committee hearing. 

TRUMP’S HILLARY EXPLANATION JUST DOESN’T CUT IT

It is difficult to comprehend the President’s political assessment of his axing of Comey, who was in the midst of investigating his campaign’s relationship with Russia. Trump claimed that the reason for his decision was Comey’s unfair treatment of Hillary. Trump believed he convinced everyone that it had nothing to do with his own possible collusion with the Russians as, in his letter of termination to Comey, he thanked the former Director for telling him no less than three times that he, The Donald, was not a target of an investigation. One can only assume that Comey had to do it thrice as The Donald needed constant reassurance. One can also be reassured that Comey who might be testifying again will, for sure, back off from his previous non committal stance on this subject. The President has to be more than mildly angered that Comey again and again refused to back him up on his still standing claim that Barack Obama wire tapped Trump Towers. Also Trump and company wanted Comey to focus on the leaks that have given this whole story legs rather than the Russian attack on the Presidential election. 

IT HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH RUSSIA -  IT WAS BECAUSE OF HILLARY

The fact that since the word go, in spite of mounting evidence and general acceptance that the Russians were involved in subverting American Democracy, Trump has claimed, to this day, that it could have been the Chinese or some 400 pound man sitting on a bed that did the hacking. It is all Fake News! Now Comey was heading up the team that had concluded that it was the Russians in an investigation that Trump claimed was a waste of tax payer money and a massive “hoax”. 

Not only did this have nothing to do with Russia, Trump claimed, it had everything to do with defending ‘crooked, lock her up Hillary’ whom Comey had done the dirt. Trump didn’t have to explain why he had previously congratulated the FBI Director for impugning Clinton’s character on her e mails and then for his courage for re opening his investigation into her e mails a few days before the election. 

Everyone had to know that the electioneering comments were just politics. Trump was now no longer candidate Trump but had the gravitas of being President Trump, who had a responsibility to act on Comey’s “atrocities”. He did not believe that anyone would give a hoot about that self opinionated pompous ass Comey. The Democrats were just a bunch of hypocrites as they had been whining a few days before that Comey had given Trump the Presidency. Any rate he was only acting on the recommendation of his Attorney General, Jeff Sessons, who unrecused himself, especially, for this important task. He, the President, had acted within his lawful powers and even Vladimir Putin had agreed. The Russian Premier told CBS news in Moscow that Trump, “was acting according to his competence, in accordance with his law”. Putin confirmed that, “We had nothing to do with it”. Putin had been backed up earlier in the day by his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who just happened to be visiting Trump that day. When a reporter asked whether Comey was axed because of the Russian connection, Lavrov answered, “Are you are kidding?” He was accompanied by Russian Ambassador Kislyak who is central in the investigation as the contact man for the Trump campaign.

Did Trump not give a thought of the optics of meeting two Russian operatives who were allegedly directly involved in the attack of the integrity of the American way of life, the day after he had fired the investigator of the Russian interference? 

 BANANA REPUBLIC LA LA LAND

There are three things that The Donald does not seem to get as he orbits in his own la la land. (He really has not changed his world view that he can get away with anything whether it be shooting some - one on Fifth Avenue or grabbing any dolly's pussy.) The firing in of itself is not congruent with “Making America Great Again”. It is in line with the behavior of the banana Republics, “South of the Border”. You just don’t fire the police just because they are investigating crimes that you might be involved in. Of course there is a lot else he does that is in sync with those totalitarian entities - making money from your political position, appointing family in top political positions and letting them make money too, just for starters. 

FIRING COMEY WON’T MAKE IT GO AWAY

Then there is the belief that this will all go away because he has fired the top cop. On the contrary he has upped the anti. Even the Conservative media have had a field day. Charles Krauthammer on the Fox News Channel had the following to add to the mix -“If this was so offensive to the Trump Administration , you would have spoken to Comey in the transition and said ‘we are going to let you go’. That’s when a president can easily make a decision to have a change. That is not unprecedented. But to fire him summarily without warning, in the middle of May about something that happened in July is almost inexplicable”. As the Fox News Half Time Report summed it up - “Trump picks a bad time for a melt down”. 

The legislators have upped their call for an independent prosecutor or an independent enquiry. Seven of the Republican Senators have joined in, in one way or another. Even in the House of Representatives, a member of the Freedom Caucus, Justin Amash, has called for an Independent Investigation. Whatever Comey has dug up is still there. He will spill the beans in the classified briefings. Also the fact that just prior to his axing the reasons as to why he asked for more money for his investigation will be canvassed. The new nominee for FBI Chief will be vetted with a vengeance. There will be more and more leaks to the Press as to what is going on. The sub committees will subpoena The Donald’s taxes. As John Dean, who blew the whistle on Watergate opined it won’t go away. 

DON’T FORGET HE HAS TO DELIVER TO THE BASE

Now The Donald has got to get his agenda going. Most importantly he has to get a Health Policy across even though he doesn’t give a hoot what that policy ultimately is. Then there is his tax policy. He maintained in his State of the Union address that he was going to send to Congress a trillion dollar infrastructure bill that would produce millions of jobs. Even his ever loving base is going to want to see results sooner or later. 

The Republican leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, whose wife is a member of Trump’s cabinet, made a sporting attempt to justify the Administration decision and attempted to get on with the business of governing. The Democrats have threatened to go slow and all they have to do is to follow McConnell’s playbook. McConnell must know how easy it is to go slow on legislation. His whole mantra in the Obama years was to allow nothing that Obama suggested to see the light of day. 

WHERE TO FROM HERE?

This story is moving rapidly. The Washington Post, with 30 sources, maintained that Trump grew furious with Comey as his investigation concentrated on the Russian attack on American democracy rather than on the leaks to the Press. Trump’s business dealings have also been brought into focus by investigators. The New York Times are reporting that Comey had confided to an associate that, “Trump was outside the realm of normal and even crazy”. The Wall Street Journal maintains that the Russian investigation had been ramped up by Comey. Instead of weekly briefings there were daily briefings. The Washington Post has just released a report that the newly appointed Deputy Attorney General has threatened to resign because his concerns about Comey’s handling of the Clinton e mail investigation was made the basis of the firing of Director Comey.

There have to be more leaks coming as the Trump administration unravels. 

The Senate Intelligence Committee are subpoenaing Michael Flynn’s documents relevant to the investigation. The last time similar subpoenas were issued was in the 9/11 investigation. Flynn will in all probability refuse pleading the fifth amendment not to incriminate himself.

It has to be obvious that the Russian issue will not go away. As James Clapper, the former Director of the National Intelligence Agency, testified at the end of the devastating Senate Intelligence hearing, the Senators need to focus on the fact that the country and every value it stands for was and is under attack from the Russians.

Trump will have to appoint an FBI Director who will have to pass incredible scrutiny. Ironically Trump would have been better off with Comey. The latter was compromised and far easier to smear than who ever is subsequently appointed.

This whole episode has hardly improved the 2018 Republican electoral position. It is highly unlikely that impeachment proceedings would be instituted with a Republican House so Trump’s ultimate fate is dependent on the outcome of the 2018 elections.. 

The  Russian affair together with Health Care is now the subject of Republican Town Hall meetings of those Congressmen who have the guts to hold them.

All this means that Trump is in deep trouble and it is reported that he has appointed legal representatives. But there is a long way to go. At the end of the day Trump has fired the FBI Director who was investigating his campaign. That could represent obstruction of justice which was the principle reason for the Nixon impeachment.