As Donald Trump’s woes inexorably grind on, in Southern Africa another drama is rapidly unfolding which too holds the fate of a Presidency. What both Presidential sagas appear to have in common are the drummers that they are marching to have very little interest in the well being of their respective countries. Trump appears to have colluded with the Russians to destroy American democracy and weaken its NATO Alliance while Jacob Zuma, it is argued, is selling out the South African economy to meet the needs of himself and three shady brothers who have a stranglehold on him. Trump’s future depends on what a
few Republicans in the Senate might decide and or whether the 2018 midterm
elections will show enough disillusionment in him to cut loose his support.
Zuma has a healthier back up as he has inherited the party of Mandela, the
African National Congress, (ANC), with it a fat legislative majority. He is relying
on the fact that enough of them are too beholden to him to switch allegiance.
Seventy votes need to abandon ship for a vote of no confidence to succeed. The
latter would bring down the Zuma Government.
South Africa with all its
wealth and promise is getting closer and closer to midnight as the erratic
behaviour of the President careers on.
WHAT PRECIPITATED THE
CRISIS
Zuma precipitated a major
economic crisis with his recent decision to sack five cabinet ministers and six
deputy ministers. The crucial axing was of his Finance Minister Gordhan and his
Deputy. Zuma has desperately been trying to control his treasury for some time
and has been through this exercise before when he terminated his then Minister
of Finance, Nene, in December 2015. Like this time the action caused a run on
the South African currency - the Rand. The latter in spite of reported Reserve
Bank support has lost ten percent in a few days. On the first occasion Zuma
recanted within days and appointed Gordhan as Finance Minister who he has now
given the chop. This time his decision is for good.
The beleaguered President
has made it quite clear that he is not going back even though Standard and Poor
and Fitch have responded to his decision by downgrading South African bonds to
junk status. Moodie’s rating group have put South Africa on notice in that they
have three months to get their act in order. Zuma has thus signalled that he is
prepared to live or die by this cabinet switch barefacedly giving inane reasons
for it. Where he differs from The Donald is that is where his explanations end.
There are no inane tweets or pathetic pleas of victimization. This is his
Constitutional right and that is that.
THE STORY BEHIND IT ALL
The South African media -
formal and social has been awash for years over the influence a family have had
over Zuma. The Guptas are said to run the country to the extent that
individuals are offered Cabinet posts by them. The oft repeated claim is that
Zuma and his cabal are in the Guptas’ pockets. Currently the Guptas’ bank
accounts have been suspended by the four major banks in South Africa who have
claimed that their financial dealings have been “reckless”. At the time of Gordhan’s
departure there was ongoing litigation between him and the Guptas’ who wanted
to force the then Finance Minister to intercede with the recalcitrant banks on
their behalf.
Besides all the stories
of graft, cronyism and corruption that have plagued Zuma’s administration there
are two major expenditures that Gordhan’s Treasury would not accede to. These
are the purchase of aeroplanes and most importantly the creation of three
nuclear plants with good old Putin’s Russia. The latter deal runs into billions
of dollars and would devastate the country’s economy. The social media buzz is
that there are astronomically fat commissions involved.
THE LINE UP AGAINST ZUMA.
The opposition against
Zuma is growing exponentially by the day. However, like all democratic politics,
change boils down to simple math. You have to have more votes where it matters
and in this instance it is Parliament. About seventy ANC members need to
switch. There are a number of highly influential power blocks that have come
out against the rogue President as well as religious groups, non - governmental
agencies and activist societies. But actually getting shot of him is a very tall
order.
The Founding Fathers of the
New South Africa.
Whatever old guard
Mandela support Zuma might have had has publicly vanished. As it so happened
the week of the long knifes saw the death of one of Mandela’s life long cadres
and friends, Mohammed Kathrada. The latter
spent all twenty - six years as Mandela’s cell mate, was in his government and
remained a close friend and confidant. Everyone loved Kathy who was regarded as
a gentle soul. Just prior to his death he had written Zuma a very public letter
telling him to step down for the good of the country. Kathrada also left
instructions that he didn’t want the South African President at his funeral. The
former interim South African President Molantehe eulogized the old ANC warrior
and read this letter at his funeral.
Anyone who was anyone in “the struggle”
formerly assembled in front of TV cameras and berated Zuma for his disrespect
to Kathrada’s memory and neglect of his widow who also served ten years prison
time. This constituency – the fathers and mothers of the nation still are held
in the highest esteem but none of them have any of the seventy votes needed.
Mandela the great
conciliator formed his government with two other major groups who were
instrumental in change – the Communist Party of South Africa, (CPSA), and the
trade group organization COSATU.
The other alliance members –
COSATU and the CPSA
COSATU, which was in the
forefront of the struggle within South Africa at the time of the apartheid
breakdown, has roundly condemned Zuma. He did not consult them as the original
terms of the alliance dictated. The special meeting on the crisis had no qualms
in blurting out that Zuma’s motives were not in the best interests of the
country. In his cabinet reshuffle they claim he kept incompetents as well as
appointing a few more. The CPSA who are in this triumvirate for historical
reasons as during the dark decades of apartheid it was the old USSR that backed
the ANC while the West acquiesced with the repressive apartheid regime, They sailed
into Zuma for betraying the revolution. Between the two groups much sound and
fury but few votes.
The Governing ANC.
At the time of Zuma’s
midnight coup the ANC appeared divided on the wily President. Three of the six
most powerful members of the party were publicly against the President. Most
notable of these was Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC Secretary General,
Mantasche. The ANC executive are technically a very powerful constituency in
the running of the Government. This fact coupled with the fact that several ANC
branches have criticized the President and the important ANC Integrity
Committee had censored him lead pundits to believe that the impossible might
happen – Zuma’s ouster. However after a hastily convened meeting “all the good
men rallied round the party”, withdrew their objections and stood united as to
what was now defined as an opposition attack on the ANC. The sop that Zuma
appeared to throw them would be that the South African energy policy, (a.k.a. nuclear
reactors), would proceed at a pace in sync with its needs.
There is growing
disillusionment with Cyril Ramaphosa who was once a firebrand in COSATU.
Greatly admired by Mandela he was the latter’s choice as his successor. After
that defeat he turned into a capitalist deluxe and he is credited as being the
richest politician in South Africa. That being no mean feat with the
competition around. He was elected as Deputy Premier at the last ANC Convention
and has been the hope of the sane. This was the first time he has made a move
and in reality, if he was serious at thwarting a Zuma appointed successor in
2018, he had to project an alternative vision.
Slowly gaining prominence
is the ousted Finance Minister Gordhan. He is still a prominent ANC member and
his popularity makes it difficult for Zuma to frame him as he attempted to do.
The latter claimed that he had an intelligence report that Gordhan and his
Deputy were about to sell the country down the river. The ANC Executive
rejected that outright in their support of Zuma rather conceding that he had
the right to axe Gordhan as he could not relate to him. The elephant in the
room in a possible Presidential bid is that Gordhan is of Indian rather than of
African origin and as such, in this polarized environment, is unlikely to mount
a serious challenge.
However he is the focus
within the Party at present articulating the ground roots dissatisfaction. He
has roundly condemned incompetence of a Cabinet Minister who nearly left
millions without their meagre monthly grants. He also makes no bones that the
Guptas run the show pointing to an instance where they offered an ANC member a
cabinet position and hundreds of thousands of rands.
The ANC face serious
problems as they are losing support at every turn. At the last municipal
election they lost Mayorships in nearly every major city in South Africa.
The Official Opposition
The official opposition
is made up of the Democratic Alliance, (DA), which still has a lingering
“white” image. They were not helped by recent statements by its former white
leader and now Premier of the Western Cape which Province the DA controls.
Helen Zillie, who is a remarkably efficient administrator and a revered pioneer
of opposition against apartheid, tweeted that everything colonialism did was
not all bad. In the current South African political context such a remark is
akin to claiming, in America, that slavery was not all that bad.
The ANC pounced on this
smearing Zillie as being a paternalistic white saviour. The ANC media led with
the Zillie story while Zuma was burning. The DA has responded by dragging the
Cape Premier before a disciplinary committee. They are making a serious attempt
to gain disaffected ANC supporters and don’t need any reminders that the
midwifes of their Party were white. In fairness to the DA their black Africa
backing has grown by leaps and bounds in the past few years.
The quixotic Economic Freedom
Party, (EEF), a populist Leninist organization completes the opposition. They
only represent nine percent of the electorate. They have combined with the DA
when it comes to opposing Zuma’s ANC.
Led by an exhibitionist, Julius Malema, they are not taken seriously at
the moment.
Suffice to say the motion
of no confidence the opposition have proposed is chanceless without ANC
support.
Mass Protest
Friday April 7 was declared
a national protest day against Zuma and gatherings were held throughout the country.
It was the largest display of public discontent on record. Businesses backed
the outpouring of anger with well over half giving their workers paid leave to
join in. The upshot is unlikely to sway any of the Parliament’s decision makers
which will just add to the general discontent.
THE UPSHOT
Whatever the outcome of
the protests South Africa has taken another plunge into banana republic status.
Zuma is not going to back off and like Mugabe of Zimbabwe he couldn’t care less
what the impact of his perfidy is. Inflation of the currency has little impact
on the wealth of those that garner the lion share of money. Nor do the
protesters have any votes in the Parliament.
The massive, broad
sweeping national response to Zuma has to have an impact somewhere. Most likely
it will weaken Zuma’s hand at appointing a successor as he is curtailed from a
future run by term limits. Also the DA have gone into election mode for the
2019 elections already. They appear well organized and funded and are poised to
capitalize on their gains made in the recent municipal elections. Ironically
they more resemble Mandela’s rainbow nation than do the ANC.
The fact that Pravin
Gordhan has not resigned his Parliamentary seat spells trouble for the ANC. He
is served notice that he will participate in the No Confidence debate and
obviously will vote against Zuma. The ANC will have no alternative other than
to throw him out and with him expect a big defection.
All this has brought about
murmurings of emigration amongst the minorities. While the ANC radicals will
claim good riddance to bad rubbish it cannot be good news. For whatever reason
they believe that wealth, know how, skills and tertiary education will magically,
automatically be transferred immediately.
PAUSE FOR THOUGHT.
One characteristic both
Zuma and Trump have is – they both have no shame!
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