Thursday, April 27, 2017

TRUMP: ONLY 1360 DAYS TO GO






The omnipotent  President Donald J. Trump, who is obsessed with being the greatest and the the winner of any and everything, has achieved his objective in the first hundred days of his Presidency. He has the lowest approval ratings ever recorded of a new President and has no legislation on any of the policies he promised that would be executed in his very first few days of office. He is thus, at this early stage, a serious candidate for being nominated the worst President in American history. Not bad going by any standards but who would expect anything different from one who believes his victory was by the highest margin ever, who had the largest attendance in history at his Presidential inauguration and is one of the greatest Presidents in history. 

TRUMP’S 100 DAYS - MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING

Whichever way it is viewed it has to be pretty amazing that a Republican elected President with Republican majorities in both houses hasn’t passed one significant piece of legislation in a hundred days. His last minute effort at resuscitating the removal of Obamacare and creating tax reform is maneuvering of an unprecedented nature to create the impression of success. It is a Hail Mary effort too to get a win on day ninety - eight of the Trump presidency.  Trump’s dying effort to produce some memorable achievement prior to his 100 days in office being up, is nothing but a rehash of his well known tax reforms but still bereft of detail. 

He is also cheerfully ready to abandon his base to mollify the Republican Freedom Caucus so as to get the votes to dump Obamacare so as to register at least one victory. No matter that in the process he will betray the promise he made to his base to ensure health care for all. Then having sold what he has of a soul he still would have to persuade the Senate that all that matters in the world is that he has a legislative victory. The upshot of all this might become evident in the Georgia bye election and in the 2018 mid term elections. 

Then the Courts have hobbled his unconstitutional moves to Make America Great Again. His Muslim ban is set to linger in the courts till kingdom come. His careful attempt at correcting his first Executive order, has met a similar fate - he is found to be discriminating on the basis of religion. His threat to withhold money from “sanctuary cities”, those that refuse to assist his thus far abortive effort to expel eleven million “illegals”, too has been ruled unconstitutional. The response to these setbacks is for him and his quaint head of the Justice Department to heap abuse on the respective judges. (At least he isn’t attacking them racially anymore).

Added to these “remarkable” achievements is the ever threatening menace to his very Presidency manifested by the mounting evidence of the Russian assistance to his election and the direct contacts his operatives had with them. All this is ominously pointing to collusion with the Russians on their assault on the American democratic process which could threaten the very existence of his reign. The latter fact, even to someone like Trump ,who operates in his alternate reality has to be looming over his head like a dark cloud.  Finally, his first 100 days resemble more the script of a Gilbert and Sullivan opera than a coherent effort at Governance, so MAZELTOV!

THE TRUE BELIEVERS HANG IN WAITING FOR GODOT

The good news for The Donald is that buyer’s remorse has not set in for the majority of his voters - that is why he still has about a forty percent approval rating. They as yet have not given up on the hope that he will conjure up millions of manufacturing jobs, bring all the oversea ventures back to the U S of A, revoke NAFTA, reopen coal mines, stop climate change in its tracks as it doesn’t really exist, unscramble globalization, get the Mexicans to pay for that beautiful wall, give everyone in America cheaper more comprehensive health care, eliminate income tax, undertake massive infrastructure projects, increase the military, sort out the Chinese currency manipulators, bomb the sh.t out of ISIS, stay out of foreign military adventures, move the American Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and on and on. You see they believe that if the media would leave Trump alone and give him a chance to deliver it will all happen. As Jay H. Ell’s grandmother might have said, “They should live so long”.

AMERICA’S WORLD ROLE - ALL BETS ARE OFF

To those that worry about the role on America in the twenty first century nothing Trump has done could have reassured them. Out of the blue and in a sudden fit of compassion he bombed Assad’s installations that had launched chemical weapons. In a single stroke he took on Putin who he has been courting at the expense of abandoning America’s allies. Within a moment the mantra changed from “Wouldn’t it be nice if we were friends with the Russians” to “Our relationship with Russia is at its worst ever”. 

There is just no coherent plan or strategy. Everybody has their say and if there is any overarching blueprint it is to play “good cop bad cop” and act with surprises. Ironically the State Department which is usually the flag bearer in all things international have had the least input. Not so surprisingly and in line with the kleptocracy, daughter Ivanka and son in law Jarred are the most prominent American ambassadors on the world stage.

If there is now certainty as to where he stands with the Russians this certainty does not reassure the NATO allies. Initially the latter were labelled obsolete and or didn’t pay their fair share. Now the stance is at least ambivalent with his Cabinet reassuring our allies and The Donald joining in every so now and then with criticism or praise. His main weapon in his playbook is veering between blowing hot and cold. Then there was the bombing in Afghanistan with the most powerful bomb in the arsenal short of a nuclear weapon. That followed an ill thought attack in Yemen that was apparently decided over dinner. 

To put it at its kindest his initiatives in relation to the North Korean threat do not inspire confidence. It provides very little comfort to know that Kim Jun Un is by far a bigger fruit cake than The Donald. On the contrary The Donald’s usual modus operandi of threats and bullying just feed into the paranoid North Korean leader’s fantasy that the world is out to get him. Helped by Vice President Pence, who should know better, the response is warlike noises and warships that just make the situation worse. One alternative on the table is all out war. The fact that the North Korean nuclear arsenal is all over the show, underground and even under water make that not such a good option. The other alternative is negotiating by diplomatic means and giving concessions to China for their cooperation. A bitter pill for The Donald to swallow but there is really no other option.

To add to the mix are the bizarre messages of goodwill to the pariahs of the world such as Marine Le Pen who hankers for the days of the Third Reich and President Erdogan who has just been declared Dictator of Turkey. 

CONFLICT OF INTEREST.

Absolutely nothing has been done to allay concerns that the Trump Presidency and Trump Inc are not one and the same operation. The State Department on its website declares Mar a Lago, the winter WhiteHouse. The former is a private club owned by Trump Inc that has just increased its membership fees from a $100,000 to $200,000. (Jay H. Ell supposes Trump can claim this as an achievement of his first 100 days in office). Trump to date has charged his official accounts with expenditure at his venues. Any bets that he is hosting the whole Government entourage for free at what the travel sites used to describe as a “posh club”? By the way where would you stay if you had business in Washington? Jay H. Ell would register at the Trump International "because of its proximity to the WhiteHouse". All this is peanuts compared to the other potential conflicts of interest.

 Now it is common knowledge that he has massive business interests in Turkey so it certainly does no harm to be onsides with Erdogan. But that is not where it begins and ends. The internet swirls with rumors and “fake news” about business connections and loans everywhere not to mention the conventional media who have run story after story. Jarred has just featured as conniving with corrupt types who were bribing the Guinea government. Some of this could be put to rest by revealing his income tax returns which apparently are under life long audit. But The Donald insists that no one is interested in them so he is not going to produce them.

How big a story this will become no one knows and one never knows either if and when the cookie will crumble.

SO WHERE FROM HERE?

The Donald will backtrack and argue that a 100 days is just an artificial metric but that begs the question as to what he is going to do the next 1360 days. He has internal disputes within his administration, he has a ton more appointments to make and he faces a countrywide organized campaign to protest his every move. He has mobilized the Mayors of nearly every city in America not to assist him and his support really is dependent on delivering promises he just cannot. He has no clue how to work with the separate branches of power, particularly Congress and his abuse of the Courts every time they rule against him will not win him many friends. So to put it kindly he has his work cut out to convince anyone that there is just going to be more of the same. 

Unless the ship gets righted the Republicans will pay the price for his folly in the 1918 elections. His election from nowhere merely delayed the painful choices the Republican Party have to make as to their future. It is obvious that their electorate have had it with the Old Guard. The days of the Bushes is over. The electorate don’t really identify with the financial conservatism of Ryan. They want their Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and yes even their Obamacare as long it is called something else. So what is the Republican position? 

Meanwhile there still could be1360 days to go that the world has to face with Trump at the helm. One thing is for certain he will see to it that he is the main event each and every day so hold tight. On day 99 we have his one page policy on the new Tax Code which is going to replace the over 2000 page current mess. But as his army of explainers explain, "The details still have to be worked out"


Perhaps we could all go into group therapy.

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