TRUMP: ONLY 1360 DAYS TO GO

The omnipotent  President Donald J. Trump, who is obsessed with being the greatest and the the winner of any and everything, has achieved his objective in the first hundred days of his Presidency. He has the lowest approval ratings ever recorded of a new President and has no legislation on any of the policies he promised that would be executed in his very first few days of office. He is thus, at this early stage, a serious candidate for being nominated the worst President in American history. Not bad going by any standards but who would expect anything different from one who believes his victory was by the highest margin ever, who had the largest attendance in history at his Presidential inauguration and is one of the greatest Presidents in history. 

TRUMP’S 100 DAYS - MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING

Whichever way it is viewed it has to be pretty amazing that a Republican elected President with Republican majorities in both houses hasn’t passed one significant piece of legislation in a hundred days. His last minute effort at resuscitating the removal of Obamacare and creating tax reform is maneuvering of an unprecedented nature to create the impression of success. It is a Hail Mary effort too to get a win on day ninety - eight of the Trump presidency.  Trump’s dying effort to produce some memorable achievement prior to his 100 days in office being up, is nothing but a rehash of his well known tax reforms but still bereft of detail. 

He is also cheerfully ready to abandon his base to mollify the Republican Freedom Caucus so as to get the votes to dump Obamacare so as to register at least one victory. No matter that in the process he will betray the promise he made to his base to ensure health care for all. Then having sold what he has of a soul he still would have to persuade the Senate that all that matters in the world is that he has a legislative victory. The upshot of all this might become evident in the Georgia bye election and in the 2018 mid term elections. 

Then the Courts have hobbled his unconstitutional moves to Make America Great Again. His Muslim ban is set to linger in the courts till kingdom come. His careful attempt at correcting his first Executive order, has met a similar fate - he is found to be discriminating on the basis of religion. His threat to withhold money from “sanctuary cities”, those that refuse to assist his thus far abortive effort to expel eleven million “illegals”, too has been ruled unconstitutional. The response to these setbacks is for him and his quaint head of the Justice Department to heap abuse on the respective judges. (At least he isn’t attacking them racially anymore).

Added to these “remarkable” achievements is the ever threatening menace to his very Presidency manifested by the mounting evidence of the Russian assistance to his election and the direct contacts his operatives had with them. All this is ominously pointing to collusion with the Russians on their assault on the American democratic process which could threaten the very existence of his reign. The latter fact, even to someone like Trump ,who operates in his alternate reality has to be looming over his head like a dark cloud.  Finally, his first 100 days resemble more the script of a Gilbert and Sullivan opera than a coherent effort at Governance, so MAZELTOV!

THE TRUE BELIEVERS HANG IN WAITING FOR GODOT

The good news for The Donald is that buyer’s remorse has not set in for the majority of his voters - that is why he still has about a forty percent approval rating. They as yet have not given up on the hope that he will conjure up millions of manufacturing jobs, bring all the oversea ventures back to the U S of A, revoke NAFTA, reopen coal mines, stop climate change in its tracks as it doesn’t really exist, unscramble globalization, get the Mexicans to pay for that beautiful wall, give everyone in America cheaper more comprehensive health care, eliminate income tax, undertake massive infrastructure projects, increase the military, sort out the Chinese currency manipulators, bomb the sh.t out of ISIS, stay out of foreign military adventures, move the American Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and on and on. You see they believe that if the media would leave Trump alone and give him a chance to deliver it will all happen. As Jay H. Ell’s grandmother might have said, “They should live so long”.

AMERICA’S WORLD ROLE - ALL BETS ARE OFF

To those that worry about the role on America in the twenty first century nothing Trump has done could have reassured them. Out of the blue and in a sudden fit of compassion he bombed Assad’s installations that had launched chemical weapons. In a single stroke he took on Putin who he has been courting at the expense of abandoning America’s allies. Within a moment the mantra changed from “Wouldn’t it be nice if we were friends with the Russians” to “Our relationship with Russia is at its worst ever”. 

There is just no coherent plan or strategy. Everybody has their say and if there is any overarching blueprint it is to play “good cop bad cop” and act with surprises. Ironically the State Department which is usually the flag bearer in all things international have had the least input. Not so surprisingly and in line with the kleptocracy, daughter Ivanka and son in law Jarred are the most prominent American ambassadors on the world stage.

If there is now certainty as to where he stands with the Russians this certainty does not reassure the NATO allies. Initially the latter were labelled obsolete and or didn’t pay their fair share. Now the stance is at least ambivalent with his Cabinet reassuring our allies and The Donald joining in every so now and then with criticism or praise. His main weapon in his playbook is veering between blowing hot and cold. Then there was the bombing in Afghanistan with the most powerful bomb in the arsenal short of a nuclear weapon. That followed an ill thought attack in Yemen that was apparently decided over dinner. 

To put it at its kindest his initiatives in relation to the North Korean threat do not inspire confidence. It provides very little comfort to know that Kim Jun Un is by far a bigger fruit cake than The Donald. On the contrary The Donald’s usual modus operandi of threats and bullying just feed into the paranoid North Korean leader’s fantasy that the world is out to get him. Helped by Vice President Pence, who should know better, the response is warlike noises and warships that just make the situation worse. One alternative on the table is all out war. The fact that the North Korean nuclear arsenal is all over the show, underground and even under water make that not such a good option. The other alternative is negotiating by diplomatic means and giving concessions to China for their cooperation. A bitter pill for The Donald to swallow but there is really no other option.

To add to the mix are the bizarre messages of goodwill to the pariahs of the world such as Marine Le Pen who hankers for the days of the Third Reich and President Erdogan who has just been declared Dictator of Turkey. 

CONFLICT OF INTEREST.

Absolutely nothing has been done to allay concerns that the Trump Presidency and Trump Inc are not one and the same operation. The State Department on its website declares Mar a Lago, the winter WhiteHouse. The former is a private club owned by Trump Inc that has just increased its membership fees from a $100,000 to $200,000. (Jay H. Ell supposes Trump can claim this as an achievement of his first 100 days in office). Trump to date has charged his official accounts with expenditure at his venues. Any bets that he is hosting the whole Government entourage for free at what the travel sites used to describe as a “posh club”? By the way where would you stay if you had business in Washington? Jay H. Ell would register at the Trump International "because of its proximity to the WhiteHouse". All this is peanuts compared to the other potential conflicts of interest.

 Now it is common knowledge that he has massive business interests in Turkey so it certainly does no harm to be onsides with Erdogan. But that is not where it begins and ends. The internet swirls with rumors and “fake news” about business connections and loans everywhere not to mention the conventional media who have run story after story. Jarred has just featured as conniving with corrupt types who were bribing the Guinea government. Some of this could be put to rest by revealing his income tax returns which apparently are under life long audit. But The Donald insists that no one is interested in them so he is not going to produce them.

How big a story this will become no one knows and one never knows either if and when the cookie will crumble.

SO WHERE FROM HERE?

The Donald will backtrack and argue that a 100 days is just an artificial metric but that begs the question as to what he is going to do the next 1360 days. He has internal disputes within his administration, he has a ton more appointments to make and he faces a countrywide organized campaign to protest his every move. He has mobilized the Mayors of nearly every city in America not to assist him and his support really is dependent on delivering promises he just cannot. He has no clue how to work with the separate branches of power, particularly Congress and his abuse of the Courts every time they rule against him will not win him many friends. So to put it kindly he has his work cut out to convince anyone that there is just going to be more of the same. 

Unless the ship gets righted the Republicans will pay the price for his folly in the 1918 elections. His election from nowhere merely delayed the painful choices the Republican Party have to make as to their future. It is obvious that their electorate have had it with the Old Guard. The days of the Bushes is over. The electorate don’t really identify with the financial conservatism of Ryan. They want their Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and yes even their Obamacare as long it is called something else. So what is the Republican position? 

Meanwhile there still could be1360 days to go that the world has to face with Trump at the helm. One thing is for certain he will see to it that he is the main event each and every day so hold tight. On day 99 we have his one page policy on the new Tax Code which is going to replace the over 2000 page current mess. But as his army of explainers explain, "The details still have to be worked out"

Perhaps we could all go into group therapy.

ZUMA PLUNGES SOUTH AFRICA INTO A FINANCIAL CRISIS .

As Donald Trump’s woes inexorably grind on, in Southern Africa another drama is rapidly unfolding which too holds the fate of a Presidency. What both Presidential sagas appear to have in common are the drummers that they are marching to have very little interest in the well being of their respective countries. Trump appears to have colluded with the Russians to destroy American democracy and weaken its NATO Alliance while Jacob Zuma, it is argued, is selling out the South African economy to meet the needs of himself and three shady brothers who have a stranglehold on him. Trump’s future depends on what a few Republicans in the Senate might decide and or whether the 2018 midterm elections will show enough disillusionment in him to cut loose his support. Zuma has a healthier back up as he has inherited the party of Mandela, the African National Congress, (ANC), with it a fat legislative majority. He is relying on the fact that enough of them are too beholden to him to switch allegiance. Seventy votes need to abandon ship for a vote of no confidence to succeed. The latter would bring down the Zuma Government.

South Africa with all its wealth and promise is getting closer and closer to midnight as the erratic behaviour of the President careers on.

WHAT PRECIPITATED THE CRISIS

Zuma precipitated a major economic crisis with his recent decision to sack five cabinet ministers and six deputy ministers. The crucial axing was of his Finance Minister Gordhan and his Deputy. Zuma has desperately been trying to control his treasury for some time and has been through this exercise before when he terminated his then Minister of Finance, Nene, in December 2015. Like this time the action caused a run on the South African currency - the Rand. The latter in spite of reported Reserve Bank support has lost ten percent in a few days. On the first occasion Zuma recanted within days and appointed Gordhan as Finance Minister who he has now given the chop. This time his decision is for good.

The beleaguered President has made it quite clear that he is not going back even though Standard and Poor and Fitch have responded to his decision by downgrading South African bonds to junk status. Moodie’s rating group have put South Africa on notice in that they have three months to get their act in order. Zuma has thus signalled that he is prepared to live or die by this cabinet switch barefacedly giving inane reasons for it. Where he differs from The Donald is that is where his explanations end. There are no inane tweets or pathetic pleas of victimization. This is his Constitutional right and that is that.

THE STORY BEHIND IT ALL

The South African media - formal and social has been awash for years over the influence a family have had over Zuma. The Guptas are said to run the country to the extent that individuals are offered Cabinet posts by them. The oft repeated claim is that Zuma and his cabal are in the Guptas’ pockets. Currently the Guptas’ bank accounts have been suspended by the four major banks in South Africa who have claimed that their financial dealings have been “reckless”. At the time of Gordhan’s departure there was ongoing litigation between him and the Guptas’ who wanted to force the then Finance Minister to intercede with the recalcitrant banks on their behalf.

Besides all the stories of graft, cronyism and corruption that have plagued Zuma’s administration there are two major expenditures that Gordhan’s Treasury would not accede to. These are the purchase of aeroplanes and most importantly the creation of three nuclear plants with good old Putin’s Russia. The latter deal runs into billions of dollars and would devastate the country’s economy. The social media buzz is that there are astronomically fat commissions involved.

THE LINE UP AGAINST ZUMA.

The opposition against Zuma is growing exponentially by the day. However, like all democratic politics, change boils down to simple math. You have to have more votes where it matters and in this instance it is Parliament. About seventy ANC members need to switch. There are a number of highly influential power blocks that have come out against the rogue President as well as religious groups, non - governmental agencies and activist societies. But actually getting shot of him is a very tall order.

The Founding Fathers of the New South Africa.

Whatever old guard Mandela support Zuma might have had has publicly vanished. As it so happened the week of the long knifes saw the death of one of Mandela’s life long cadres and friends, Mohammed Kathrada.  The latter spent all twenty - six years as Mandela’s cell mate, was in his government and remained a close friend and confidant. Everyone loved Kathy who was regarded as a gentle soul. Just prior to his death he had written Zuma a very public letter telling him to step down for the good of the country. Kathrada also left instructions that he didn’t want the South African President at his funeral. The former interim South African President Molantehe eulogized the old ANC warrior and read this letter at his funeral.

 Anyone who was anyone in “the struggle” formerly assembled in front of TV cameras and berated Zuma for his disrespect to Kathrada’s memory and neglect of his widow who also served ten years prison time. This constituency – the fathers and mothers of the nation still are held in the highest esteem but none of them have any of the seventy votes needed.

Mandela the great conciliator formed his government with two other major groups who were instrumental in change – the Communist Party of South Africa, (CPSA), and the trade group organization COSATU.

The other alliance members – COSATU and the CPSA

COSATU, which was in the forefront of the struggle within South Africa at the time of the apartheid breakdown, has roundly condemned Zuma. He did not consult them as the original terms of the alliance dictated. The special meeting on the crisis had no qualms in blurting out that Zuma’s motives were not in the best interests of the country. In his cabinet reshuffle they claim he kept incompetents as well as appointing a few more. The CPSA who are in this triumvirate for historical reasons as during the dark decades of apartheid it was the old USSR that backed the ANC while the West acquiesced with the repressive apartheid regime, They sailed into Zuma for betraying the revolution. Between the two groups much sound and fury but few votes.

The Governing ANC.

At the time of Zuma’s midnight coup the ANC appeared divided on the wily President. Three of the six most powerful members of the party were publicly against the President. Most notable of these was Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC Secretary General, Mantasche. The ANC executive are technically a very powerful constituency in the running of the Government. This fact coupled with the fact that several ANC branches have criticized the President and the important ANC Integrity Committee had censored him lead pundits to believe that the impossible might happen – Zuma’s ouster. However after a hastily convened meeting “all the good men rallied round the party”, withdrew their objections and stood united as to what was now defined as an opposition attack on the ANC. The sop that Zuma appeared to throw them would be that the South African energy policy, (a.k.a. nuclear reactors), would proceed at a pace in sync with its needs.

There is growing disillusionment with Cyril Ramaphosa who was once a firebrand in COSATU. Greatly admired by Mandela he was the latter’s choice as his successor. After that defeat he turned into a capitalist deluxe and he is credited as being the richest politician in South Africa. That being no mean feat with the competition around. He was elected as Deputy Premier at the last ANC Convention and has been the hope of the sane. This was the first time he has made a move and in reality, if he was serious at thwarting a Zuma appointed successor in 2018, he had to project an alternative vision. 

Slowly gaining prominence is the ousted Finance Minister Gordhan. He is still a prominent ANC member and his popularity makes it difficult for Zuma to frame him as he attempted to do. The latter claimed that he had an intelligence report that Gordhan and his Deputy were about to sell the country down the river. The ANC Executive rejected that outright in their support of Zuma rather conceding that he had the right to axe Gordhan as he could not relate to him. The elephant in the room in a possible Presidential bid is that Gordhan is of Indian rather than of African origin and as such, in this polarized environment, is unlikely to mount a serious challenge.

However he is the focus within the Party at present articulating the ground roots dissatisfaction. He has roundly condemned incompetence of a Cabinet Minister who nearly left millions without their meagre monthly grants. He also makes no bones that the Guptas run the show pointing to an instance where they offered an ANC member a cabinet position and hundreds of thousands of rands.  

The ANC face serious problems as they are losing support at every turn. At the last municipal election they lost Mayorships in nearly every major city in South Africa.    

      

The Official Opposition

The official opposition is made up of the Democratic Alliance, (DA), which still has a lingering “white” image. They were not helped by recent statements by its former white leader and now Premier of the Western Cape which Province the DA controls. Helen Zillie, who is a remarkably efficient administrator and a revered pioneer of opposition against apartheid, tweeted that everything colonialism did was not all bad. In the current South African political context such a remark is akin to claiming, in America, that slavery was not all that bad.

The ANC pounced on this smearing Zillie as being a paternalistic white saviour. The ANC media led with the Zillie story while Zuma was burning. The DA has responded by dragging the Cape Premier before a disciplinary committee. They are making a serious attempt to gain disaffected ANC supporters and don’t need any reminders that the midwifes of their Party were white. In fairness to the DA their black Africa backing has grown by leaps and bounds in the past few years.

The quixotic Economic Freedom Party, (EEF), a populist Leninist organization completes the opposition. They only represent nine percent of the electorate. They have combined with the DA when it comes to opposing Zuma’s ANC.  Led by an exhibitionist, Julius Malema, they are not taken seriously at the moment.

Suffice to say the motion of no confidence the opposition have proposed is chanceless without ANC support.

Mass Protest   

Friday April 7 was declared a national protest day against Zuma and gatherings were held throughout the country. It was the largest display of public discontent on record. Businesses backed the outpouring of anger with well over half giving their workers paid leave to join in. The upshot is unlikely to sway any of the Parliament’s decision makers which will just add to the general discontent.

THE UPSHOT

Whatever the outcome of the protests South Africa has taken another plunge into banana republic status. Zuma is not going to back off and like Mugabe of Zimbabwe he couldn’t care less what the impact of his perfidy is. Inflation of the currency has little impact on the wealth of those that garner the lion share of money. Nor do the protesters have any votes in the Parliament. 

The massive, broad sweeping national response to Zuma has to have an impact somewhere. Most likely it will weaken Zuma’s hand at appointing a successor as he is curtailed from a future run by term limits. Also the DA have gone into election mode for the 2019 elections already. They appear well organized and funded and are poised to capitalize on their gains made in the recent municipal elections. Ironically they more resemble Mandela’s rainbow nation than do the ANC.

The fact that Pravin Gordhan has not resigned his Parliamentary seat spells trouble for the ANC. He is served notice that he will participate in the No Confidence debate and obviously will vote against Zuma. The ANC will have no alternative other than to throw him out and with him expect a big defection.

All this has brought about murmurings of emigration amongst the minorities. While the ANC radicals will claim good riddance to bad rubbish it cannot be good news. For whatever reason they believe that wealth, know how, skills and tertiary education will magically, automatically be transferred immediately.

PAUSE FOR THOUGHT.

One characteristic both Zuma and Trump have is – they both have no shame!