This last week saw
further far reaching revelations of the Russian interference into the American
way of life which fairly and squarely were placed at the door of Trump and his
campaign team of Russian operatives. Paul Manafort, former Trump Campaign
Manager and the man credited with guiding him into and through the Republican
nomination process, being the latest to be found to be knee deep in Russian collusion. The Republican legislators’ negative responses
to the Trump Whitehouse revelations prompted The Donald to counter with his usual bizarre diversionary
tactics and “alternative truths” which have thus far sustained him in his brief
sojourn into the political world.
While only sixty days into his term Trump’s
faced a new variable - open defiance, at the highest levels from Republican
leaders. The latter, in the face of incontrovertible evidence contradicting his questionable behavior towards Obama coupled with pressure from their
constituents, reluctantly abandoned their rock solid unconditional backing of
the POTUS. His erratic behavior has
resulted in the topic of impeachment being discussed more and more.
All this was a backdrop
to FBI Director Comey officially negating Trump’s bizarre allegations of Obama wiretapping
Trump Tower. He also dramatically confirmed the fact that the current
investigation of the Russian illegal intervention into America’s Presidential election
included whether there was any criminal collusion between the Trump campaign and Putin.
Front and central to the
Donald’s woes is the Russian connection. Every day brings forth another sordid saga
of his or his team’s involvement with America’s despotic adversary, Russia and
its dictator Putin. The recent bohaai occasioned by the exposure of his chief
political ally, Attorney General Jeff Sessions, lying about encounters with the
Russian Ambassador created first a national then an international crisis. His diversion
to the Sessions cause celeb was to accuse President Obama of personally
ordering a wiretapping on him and Trump Tower. When that was treated as the theater of the absurd he blamed the British spy agency for the eavesdropping.
More recently he stuck to his delusional guns by involving a bemused Angela Merkel
into the conspiracy. The completion of the trifecta of his major woes resulted
from him jumping, boots and all, to support the Republican’s new health care
plan “Ryancare”. The latter an ill thought out amoral repeal and replacement of
“Obamacare” was then labelled “Trumpcare”.
TRUMP’S MANAGERIAL PROBLEM
Trump still hasn’t
adjusted from the CEO mode to political leadership management. It is one skill
surrounding yourself with loyal unquestioning and obedient nonentities which he
has done all his life – it is another to collaborate and compromise with a slew
of independent political legislators whose authority is not dependent on his
patronage. Added to this inconvenience is his inability to dictate to the middle
management bureaucracies that run the various governmental departments. It is a piece of
cake to out manoeuvre the “dishonest fake press” and turn all publicity into a
triumph. It is another challenge to bully and cajole legislators whose pay checks he does
not sign and whose jobs are dependent on their constituents.
In short investigations
have been initiated into “his business” that he has no control over other than
to try and influence the participants, most of whom he has abused. For the
first time in his seventy years he cannot call on his father to bail him out or
bully, bullshit, bluff and bluster with a team of lawyers to frustrate his
opponents. His mentor was Roy Cohn, Eugene McCarthy’s lawyer who
taught him never to apologize and to respond by double downing on the ante when
challenged.
TRUMP’S DEFENSES.
In addition to tweets,
refusing to answer questions and doubling down, he can and does return to his
hero worshiping, strident and angry following who swoon, froth at the mouth
and cheer every populist statement he utters. Then there are the neophyte
loyalist sycophants that he surrounds himself with who provide implausible
explanations and rationalizations for his tripe. His diversionary tactics are
well known where he focuses attention away from an uncomfortable subject by
some outlandish accusation or remark.
A common approach of his is
the alternative facts production and interpretation of statistics a la Trump
mode. For example, candidate Trump claimed you could not trust the Labor Department statistics. He exclaimed when “they” say there is five percent
unemployment it can really be up to forty two percent. He now agrees with the Labor Department numbers, claiming credit for them and his sycophants think it
is one big joke. Another bizarre diversionary tactic was said to be in
the form of an anonymous leak of two pages of his 2005 tax returns that
provided little of the detail demanded as to his business affairs. In fact the
leak reflected on him favorably. He commented on the tax forms before the media did
leading the recipient of the forms, a famous Trump biographer, to allege that it was Trump that
leaked them.
In short he creates a new
reality and the question is to how this can help him in his current predicament.
WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW?
Currently both Houses of
Congress have ongoing investigations into Russia and Trump's involvement and his
allegation that Obama wiretapped his campaign. There are also statutory
investigations by bodies such as the FBI. In addition Trump is conducting a full press
support of the Republican effort to remove and replace Obamacare. With regard to the
alleged Obama wiretap both Republican controlled committees have taken the
unprecedented step to accept that no evidence exists to back these claims.
The big elephant in the Trump Whitehouse is the Russian
connection. On its face the situation for Trump is pretty serious.
To start with
Russia is America’s adversary and
currently the USA have sanctions
in place against it. (Sanctions which
the Republicans don’t think are strong enough). It has been confirmed by Comey– Russia
intervened in the American Presidential election in favour of Trump’s
candidacy. The campaign was strewn with Trump’s professed love and admiration
for Putin at the expense of America’s NATO allies. Several of Trump’s campaign
were involved with Russian operatives. The issue now remains as to whether Trump
and or his organization criminally colluded with Russia.
It is common knowledge
that the FBI have in their possession a report from a former British spy agent
that alleges collusion. Some of that report has already proved true. Just to
quote one item in the report where the Russian sources claim that Trump would soften the Republican election Platform on Russia as a quid pro quo. At the
Republican Conference it is alleged that a Russian operative was negotiating
the deal. Trump surprisingly only wanted one change to the Republican election platform,
namely softening the position on Russia. One of the Trump team J. D. Gordon
stated that he was responsible for the pro Russian amendments which he executed
on Trump’s instructions.
The Russian story is thus pretty serious stuff.
The question that everyone is asking, in private, is how long can this go on for? How can Trump be axed? The term impeachment is loosely bandied about in these conversations . What will it take to impeach? In short it will take a helluva lot but Trump is a champ and a first at everything - “believe me”. Impeachment proceedings have been started three times in USA history and each time the President and Congress were in different political parties.
The most successful effort in living memory at removing a President was the impeachment of Richard Nixon. The Nixon episode provides a clue as to the overwhelming effort it takes to remove a President. The impeachment of Bill Clinton was a hopelessly partisan affair and was doomed to failure from the word go. It did not get one Democratic legislator in support. In fact Clinton’s approval rating were at a peak during and after the Republican effort to unseat him.
So using the Nixon and Clinton precedents let us go ahead with “The Fool’s Guide to Impeach the POTUS”. The Nixon process was painfully slow, transparent with public hearings both in the Senate and the House. Justice was seen to be done. Like the Trump situation there was aggressive media investigation and reporting. Then there were leaks galore. Famously there was the deputy head of the FBI,“Deep Throat”, who tipped off iconic Washington Post reporters Woodward and Bernstein. The two Democratic Chairman of the investigative committees in the Senate and the House were at pains to involve the Republicans in the process so that when push came to shove it was a bipartisan effort. Eventually the minority Republican leaders together with party stalwart Barry Goldwater approached the paranoid Nixon to tell him they never had the votes to prevent impeachment and his eventual dismissal. The subtle process was orchestrated by Chief of Staff Alexander Haig who understood the need for the succession of power to be as smooth as possible. The body politic, unlike the Clinton effort, was totally onside with the process.
At the moment the Republican leadership are nowhere ready to take the plunge. If anything they are in diversionary mode. They are waiting for Comey to produce the goods and then maybe…. The media are daily making exposures and just maybe beginning to indent Trump’s support. While his approval rate has dropped from forty eight percent to forty two percent it has been solid. However, if the rebellion in Republican constituencies is anything to go by and “Trump/RyanCare” cannot pass because it has been exposed for the fraud that it is there has to be a danger of losing the House in 2018. The coal miners are not back in the mines, manufacturing jobs have not materialized and his budget does not help the one hundred thousand or so workers that switched to give him the electoral college victory. These factors can well end the Republican reign. There is a hope, if the evidence becomes so overwhelming, that the GOP in a desire to avoid an electoral defeat move for impeachment. Also the antipathy towards Russia by the whole Congress cannot be underestimated. The GOP too are furious at the Russian act of war at interfering in their democracy. If Trump can be conclusively shown to have colluded with Putin there are a number that will put country before party.
There is another mechanism whereby Trump could be terminated in terms of the 25th Amendment to the Constitution. Here the Vice President and the Cabinet have to deem the President incapable to carry out his duties. There is abundant credible psychiatric evidence emerging daily where literally hundreds of professionals have made diagnoses ranging from narcissistic personality, sociopath, and even delusional and psychotic. However, short of Trump going raving nuts - nothing is going to happen. There is a hope, if the evidence becomes so overwhelming, that the GOP in a desire to avoid an electoral defeat move for impeachment before the 1918 elections.
AT THE END OF THE DAY The noose has to be tightening. The FBI
Director has announced that he is conducting a criminal investigation into
Trump and his campaign to see if there is any evidence of criminal collusion with the
Russians. The Trump campaign have responded by throwing Mike Flynn and Paul
Manafort under the bus. That is what Nixon did in the slow process of his dying
reign.
as his main attribute. He, the man whose campaign is being
investigated
for what amounts to treason, is the guy to rely on to
keep the country safe.
Look what has just happened
in London he is about to scream! Trump may reflect that had the
perpetrator had First Amendment Rights, which he so ardently
champions, there would have been more than four dead.
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