TRUMP: PRESIDENT FOR A NIGHT?

To an audible hour long sigh of relief from the assembled Republicans, Trump delivered a State of the Union speech that was dramatically changed in tone but not to much in substance. Even the style was different. He used some big words and there was not one “believe me” or “sad”. It was also pathetically thin on specifics. The speech was to a large extent a rehash of his campaign efforts with the usual exhortation to Make America Great Again. He was unashamedly contradictory where it was political to do so. The change in tone and style had the effect of appearing to soften the President’s image and agenda. In short he sounded more Presidential but his content raised more questions than it answered. 

There were a few concessions to intense pressure from both within and without the party such as finally condemning anti semitic acts, condemning an act of violence perpetrated by a white extremist and expressing support of NATO. In addition there was an optimistic note with the declaration that a new chapter of American greatness was beginning - largely due to his presence and efforts of course. However he did nothing to dispel the elephant in the chamber, his Chief Advisor Stephen Bannon’s gobblygook, explanation, at the Conservative Political Action Conference, of his anarchistic agenda which spells a message of darkness. 

The POTUS’S preoccupation with the advantages of a rapprochement with his soulmate Putin and his Russia was not mentioned. Ironically in the glow of his successful first State of the Nation speech stories were breaking on the relationship between Trump’s campaign and Russia. The latter will turn his metamorphosis from a frog into a prince to a one night wonder.

LOW BAR

The bar for the POTUS is so low that the consensus was that this was a great speech. The obsequious Marco Rubio said this was the greatest President speech ever. In truth it was not as rabble rousing, crude and shambolic as his campaign efforts. Nor was it as offensive as the stream of unintelligible consciousness that his Press Conferences and Tweets could be. It didn’t descend to the depths of the darkness of hell that he conjured up in his inauguration speech. However it was still premised that America resembled a wasteland that could only be saved by his intervention, with all our help of course. 

DIVISIVE TRUMP AND DIVISIVE GOP

After conducting the most divisive campaign in history and displaying total disregard, up to that very moment, to anyone other than his base he called for cooperation with the Democrats but offered nothing in return. Trump’s offer for collaboration has to be seen in the context of his behavior to date and in the light of the fact that he changes his position on every subject every other day. 

The fact that the Republicans had only two policies the last eight years, namely oppose everything Obama and repeal Obamacare makes his plea that much more hollow. In addition he keeps harping that he inherited a mess. It was Obama that inherited a catastrophe and virtually saved the American economy. Then he brought down unemployment to less than five percent. Obama too proposed an infrastructure plan which the Republicans, like everything else Obama, refused to even discuss. 

THE FOREIGNERS

The compromise on a comprehensive immigration policy that he had floated prior to the speech was discarded. He stuck to the central theme on the campaign that the bogeyman and cause for the American ills were the undocumented immigrants. The media and special interests were hiding the truth. Rather, he reinforced the concept that the undocumented Latinos were “murderers, rapists and drug dealers” by calling on victims that were invited guests. (This in the teeth of the evidence that the Cato Institute that immigrants were less likely to commit crimes than native born Americans).  He reassured the Congress that deportations were taking place while he spoke. Put another way there was nothing to comfort all the undocumented that he wasn’t going to deport all eleven million of them.

THE AFFORDABLE HEALTHCARE ACT (ACA) OBAMACARE

Obamacare still appears to stick in the Republican crawl to the extent that they are prepared to live or die by its successful repeal and replacement. They are unanimous that this should be their first order of business. Trump admitted, following representations from Governors and the widespread support the ACA received in a week long countrywide protest, that he never knew healthcare was so complicated. In spite of the latter fact that he offered a solution without knowing politically how he was going to get there, and how it would all be cobbled together. He gave directives on what to put in this “disastrous” act’s place. He made Speaker Ryan happy by recommending payment for coverage via tax credits and health care saving accounts. He wanted the most popular provision included - coverage for preexisting conditions and to drive down the high cost of drugs. Then he wanted Medicaid to be flexible enough “to make sure no one would be left out”. A national healthcare market which crossed state borders was mooted. This is a practical impossibility as most of the companies operate in local, state or regional markets. Finally, there all this had to be done while having a stable transition of those citizens that were currently on the ACA. He lamely added that his solution would provide better health care and reduce costs.

The only consensus amongst the Republican factions on the ACA is that it has to be the first order of the legislative agenda. The diehard Tea Party faction really just want to repeal. Ryan is focussed on payment via Tax Credits and has offered no comprehensive plans for all the other issues. Those that were grilled at Town Hall meetings represent another viewpoint. To quote Senator Grassley, “There is a consensus among Republicans now that you have to be more cautious with what your’e going to do. That didn’t mean much to me in November or December but it means a lot now”. Senator Collins of Maine will not go along with any plan that rolls back Medicaid while the diehards want to axe the Medicaid provision totally.

Now the Democrats too want this to be the first item for debate. They know the pitfalls, as Obama, with a majority in both houses as well, took well over a year to pass it. He used up all his political capital and in the midterms lost his majorities. Just in case the factions in the GOP aren’t enough to handle there are the interest groups. Health care has more lobbyists by far than other entity. Obama “accommodated” the insurance companies and the American Medical Association to get his legislation through. It is not for nothing that the Dems response to Trump’s State of the Nation speech was given by the seventy - two year old retired Governor of Tennessee, Steve Beshear. Tennessee is a red state that successfully introduced Obamacare. Beshear can speak from firsthand as to its success and the impact of its being repealed.

FINANCES

Now Trump whose life has been spent on borrowing, leveraging and then not paying if necessary indicated that he wants to spend like a drunken sailor - one trillion on infrastructure and lowering taxes for everyone and the corporations. The he suggests an increase in defense spending of $64 billion. This will be paid for by drastically cutting back on discretionary spending. He wants to decapitate the State Department’s budget. This lead Republican Senator Lindsay Graham to comment that doing the latter will make his budget dead on arrival. Although not featured in his blockbuster State of the Nation he does not want to touch Medicare and Social Security. (Ryan has been on and on about axing these two entitlements since time immemorial). In mentioning that “beautiful wall” he omitted to detail how the twenty - one billion dollar tag will be met. An analysis of his potential Budget and the dissension it will cause in the fiscally conservative ranks of the Republican Party almost makes one understand why Obamacare must come first. Just keep calling it Obamacare not the ACA because they literally hate him

Jay H. Ell nearly forgot, how he proposes to pay for it all. All the prosperity that all the above will engender will bring the bacon home apparently and that will balance the budget and not add to the deficit.

JOBS: 

Now this is what Trump is supposedly all about and this is where he told the biggest lie of the evening. (According to the Washington Post Fact Checker there were thirteen false claims and or inaccuracies in the speech). Trump claimed that there are ninety - four million Americans not in the labor force - one out of five people. Ninety -  three million of those according to the Post don’t want to work as they are either retired, disabled, or studying. Currently the unemployment rate is at lowest for decades at 4.8% which translates to about seven million looking for work. 

The list of companies that he maintained that he had “persuaded” to remain in America and thereby create jobs included Ford, Fiat Chrysler and Soft Bank all of whom have publicly denied that their decision had anything to do with Trump. Then Trump claimed that by okaying the Keystone and the Dakota Pipelines he was creating tens of thousands of jobs. The Keystone pipeline will in fact only acquire three thousand eight hundred jobs. Added to all this baloney is the jobs he will create by his immigration policy. The only jobs he will add are the additional 15,000 that are needed to carry out it out.

He forgot to mention all those mining and manufacturing jobs he was going to create - all those coal mines he is going to reopen. He better get all those factories back as well by 2018 otherwise the very people that gave him his surprise victory may either stay at home or vote against him.  

Incidentally if the Labor Department are correct and that there are only seven million people looking for jobs then he is going to have large scale immigration to get all of this done. Mexico is right next to the wall. Maybe he can employ some of them - legally of course. 

SEAN, CARRYN AND WILLIAM RYAN

Undoubtedly the most moving scene of the evening was the reaction of the distraught widow of Seal Ryan Owens who was killed on the abortive Seals raid in Yemen. In retrospect, bearing in mind the controversy surrounding that exercise, it may well appear inappropriate to have focussed on this tragedy. It is likely to return the floodlights back onto the POTUS’S role in the misadventure which also killed twenty - five civilians including children and resulted in the loss of military hardware costing seventy - five million dollars. When confronted with the fact that he made the life or death decision casually, over dinner, he immediately claimed that the incursion had been sanctioned by the Obama administration. When that was proven to be a lie he intimated that it was the Generals. Someone should tell him that he is President and that is where the buck stops.

Following a classified briefing Senator John McCain, Head of the Senate Armed Services Committee declared the mission a failure. He claimed that the POTUS had been warned of the dangers of it and that the enemy had been tipped off. McCain added that it was Committee’s objective that this wouldn’t happen again. This resulted in a back and forth between McCain, Press Secretary Spicer and off course The Donald. 

Trump comforted the distraught Carryn Owens by reassuring her that valuable intelligence had been gleaned that would save other lives. This fact too is disputed with conflicting reports emanating from officials. Ryan’s father Mr. William Owens questioned the necessity of the raid arguing that for years the sorties on Yemen were with missiles and drones and Trump after one week sends in ground troops “ Now all of a sudden we had to make this grand display”. Mr. Owens refused to shake the President’s hand on the occasion of the return of his son’s remains.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

• There is little doubt by sticking to the script the POTUS saved himself from falling over the political precipice. The expectations were so low that he only needed a D to pass. He got an A for presentation and an E for content.  His base will still stick with him and maybe those in the middle will give him another chance. 
• Jay H. Ell is not reassured as to what his policy was last night. For example, what is going to be the position on NATO tomorrow. Yesterday he was supportive, The day before he wasn’t. Then a major campaign promise was health care for all and now, with Ryan, it is access to health care for all… Same with so many other promises and issues.  
• His team only took his tweeting phone away from him for the night so it cannot be long before he is back in campaign mode. 
• The  State of the Nation address is a short term panacea because it can’t paper up the divisions in the Republican Party and between him and the Republican Party.
• His immediate problem is the ACA. The medium term trouble is the continuing revelations of the Putin Russian connection. That is really serious and the one issue that the Republicans cannot ignore. In the longer term the failure to deliver the jobs he promised in the rust belt will be the issue.. 
• He once again surprised everyone and with his speech pulled another rabbit out of his hat. If the Russian connection would just go away, if he can finally get an administration in place, doesn’t thrust America into WW111, forget about Bannon and his bizarre anarchistic political theories and can govern with responsibility, maybe he will continue to surprise.  
• Don’t tell The Donald that his audience was ten million less than Obama’s was at the latter’s first State of the Nation because he is guaranteed to undo all the good he did with his “historical” speech. 
• The speech is forgotten with the new revelations on Russia putting the spotlight on the collusion with them and Trump's taxes.