TRUMP: THE UNRAVELING CONTINUES.

This last week saw further far reaching revelations of the Russian interference into the American way of life which fairly and squarely were placed at the door of Trump and his campaign team of Russian operatives. Paul Manafort, former Trump Campaign Manager and the man credited with guiding him into and through the Republican nomination process, being the latest to be found to be knee deep in Russian collusion.  The Republican legislators’ negative responses to the Trump Whitehouse revelations prompted The Donald to counter with his usual bizarre diversionary tactics and “alternative truths” which have thus far sustained him in his brief sojourn into the political world. 

While only sixty days into his term Trump’s faced a new variable - open defiance, at the highest levels from Republican leaders. The latter, in the face of incontrovertible evidence contradicting his questionable behavior towards Obama coupled with pressure from their constituents, reluctantly abandoned their rock solid unconditional backing of the POTUS. His erratic behavior has resulted in the topic of impeachment being discussed more and more.

All this was a backdrop to FBI Director Comey officially negating Trump’s bizarre allegations of Obama wiretapping Trump Tower. He also dramatically confirmed the fact that the current investigation of the Russian illegal intervention into America’s Presidential election included whether there was any criminal collusion between the Trump campaign and Putin. 

 THE CENTRAL ISSUES

Front and central to the Donald’s woes is the Russian connection. Every day brings forth another sordid saga of his or his team’s involvement with America’s despotic adversary, Russia and its dictator Putin. The recent bohaai occasioned by the exposure of his chief political ally, Attorney General Jeff Sessions, lying about encounters with the Russian Ambassador created first a national then an international crisis. His diversion to the Sessions cause celeb was to accuse President Obama of personally ordering a wiretapping on him and Trump Tower. When that was treated as the theater of the absurd he blamed the British spy agency for the eavesdropping. More recently he stuck to his delusional guns by involving a bemused Angela Merkel into the conspiracy. The completion of the trifecta of his major woes resulted from him jumping, boots and all, to support the Republican’s new health care plan “Ryancare”. The latter an ill thought out amoral repeal and replacement of “Obamacare” was then labelled “Trumpcare”.

TRUMP’S  MANAGERIAL PROBLEM

Trump still hasn’t adjusted from the CEO mode to political leadership management. It is one skill surrounding yourself with loyal unquestioning and obedient nonentities which he has done all his life – it is another to collaborate and compromise with a slew of independent political legislators whose authority is not dependent on his patronage. Added to this inconvenience is his inability to dictate to the middle management bureaucracies that run the various governmental departments. It is a piece of cake to out manoeuvre the “dishonest fake press” and turn all publicity into a triumph. It is another challenge to bully and cajole legislators whose pay checks he does not sign and whose jobs are dependent on their constituents.

In short investigations have been initiated into “his business” that he has no control over other than to try and influence the participants, most of whom he has abused. For the first time in his seventy years he cannot call on his father to bail him out or bully, bullshit, bluff and bluster with a team of lawyers to frustrate his opponents. His mentor was Roy Cohn, Eugene McCarthy’s lawyer who taught him never to apologize and to respond by double downing on the ante when challenged.

TRUMP’S DEFENSES.

In addition to tweets, refusing to answer questions and doubling down, he can and does return to his hero worshiping, strident and angry following who swoon, froth at the mouth and cheer every populist statement he utters. Then there are the neophyte loyalist sycophants that he surrounds himself with who provide implausible explanations and rationalizations for his tripe. His diversionary tactics are well known where he focuses attention away from an uncomfortable subject by some outlandish accusation or remark.

A common approach of his is the alternative facts production and interpretation of statistics a la Trump mode. For example, candidate Trump claimed you could not trust the Labor Department statistics. He exclaimed when “they” say there is five percent unemployment it can really be up to forty two percent. He now agrees with the Labor Department numbers, claiming credit for them and his sycophants think it is one big joke. Another bizarre diversionary tactic was said to be in the form of an anonymous leak of two pages of his 2005 tax returns that provided little of the detail demanded as to his business affairs. In fact the leak reflected on him favorably. He commented on the tax forms before the media did leading the recipient of the forms, a famous Trump biographer, to allege that it was Trump that leaked them.    

In short he creates a new reality and the question is to how this can help him in his current predicament.

WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW?

Currently both Houses of Congress have ongoing investigations into Russia and Trump's involvement and his allegation that Obama wiretapped his campaign. There are also statutory investigations by bodies such as the FBI.  In addition Trump is conducting a full press support of the Republican effort to remove and replace Obamacare. With regard to the alleged Obama wiretap both Republican controlled committees have taken the unprecedented step to accept that no evidence exists to back these claims.

The big elephant in the Trump Whitehouse is the Russian 

connection. On its face the situation for Trump is pretty serious. 

To start with Russia is America’s adversary and

currently the USA have sanctions in place against it.  (Sanctions which the Republicans don’t think are strong enough). It has been  confirmed by Comey– Russia intervened in the American Presidential election in favour of Trump’s candidacy. The campaign was strewn with Trump’s professed love and admiration for Putin at the expense of America’s NATO allies. Several of Trump’s campaign were involved with Russian operatives. The issue now remains as to whether Trump and or his organization criminally colluded with Russia.

It is common knowledge that the FBI have in their possession a report from a former British spy agent that alleges collusion. Some of that report has already proved true. Just to quote one item in the report where the Russian sources claim that Trump would soften the Republican election Platform on Russia as a quid pro quo. At the Republican Conference it is alleged that a Russian operative was negotiating the deal. Trump surprisingly only wanted one change to the Republican election platform, namely softening the position on Russia.  One of the Trump team J. D. Gordon stated that he was responsible for the pro Russian amendments which he executed on Trump’s instructions.  

The Russian story is thus pretty serious stuff.

 HOW LONG CAN TRUMP SURVIVE? WHAT HAPPENED TO NIXON AND CLINTON?

 The question that everyone is asking, in private, is how long can this go on for? How can Trump be axed? The term impeachment is loosely bandied about in these conversations . What will it take to impeach? In short it will take a helluva lot but Trump is a champ and a first at everything - “believe me”. Impeachment proceedings have been started three times in USA history and each time the President and Congress were in different political parties. 

 The most successful effort in living memory at removing a President was the impeachment of Richard Nixon. The Nixon episode  provides a clue as to the overwhelming effort it takes to remove a President. The impeachment of Bill Clinton was a hopelessly partisan affair and was doomed to failure from the word go. It did not get one Democratic legislator in support. In fact Clinton’s approval rating were at a peak during and after  the Republican effort to unseat him.

 So using the Nixon and Clinton precedents let us go ahead with “The Fool’s Guide to Impeach the POTUS”. The Nixon process was painfully slow, transparent with public hearings both in the Senate and the House. Justice was seen to be done. Like the Trump situation there was aggressive media investigation and reporting. Then there were leaks galore. Famously there was the deputy head of the FBI,“Deep Throat”, who tipped off iconic Washington Post reporters Woodward and Bernstein. The two Democratic Chairman of the investigative committees in the Senate and the House were at pains to involve the Republicans in the process so that when push came to shove it was a bipartisan effort. Eventually the minority Republican leaders together with party stalwart Barry Goldwater approached the paranoid Nixon to tell him they never had the votes to prevent impeachment and his eventual dismissal. The subtle process was orchestrated by Chief of Staff Alexander Haig who understood the need for the succession of power to be as smooth as possible. The body politic, unlike the Clinton effort, was totally onside with the process. 

 At the moment the Republican leadership are nowhere ready to take the plunge. If anything they are in diversionary mode. They are waiting for Comey to produce the goods and then maybe…. The media are daily making exposures and just maybe beginning to indent Trump’s support. While his approval rate has dropped from forty eight percent to forty two percent it has been solid. However, if the rebellion in Republican constituencies is anything to go by and “Trump/RyanCare” cannot pass because it has been exposed for the fraud that it is there has to be a danger of losing the House in 2018. The coal miners are not back in the mines, manufacturing jobs have not materialized and his budget does not help the one hundred thousand or so workers that switched to give him the electoral college victory. These factors can well end the Republican reign. There is a hope, if the evidence becomes so overwhelming, that the GOP in a desire to avoid an electoral defeat move for impeachment. Also the antipathy towards Russia by the whole Congress cannot be underestimated. The GOP too are furious at the Russian act of war at interfering in their democracy. If Trump can be conclusively shown to have colluded with Putin there are a number that will put country before party.

 There is another mechanism whereby Trump could be terminated in terms of the 25th Amendment to the Constitution. Here the Vice President and the Cabinet have to deem the President incapable to carry out his duties. There is abundant credible psychiatric evidence emerging daily where literally hundreds of professionals have made diagnoses ranging from narcissistic personality, sociopath, and even delusional and psychotic. However, short of Trump going raving nuts - nothing is going to happen. There is a hope, if the evidence becomes so overwhelming, that the GOP in a desire to avoid an electoral defeat move for impeachment before the 1918 elections. 
 

AT THE END OF THE DAY The noose has to be tightening. The FBI Director has announced that he is conducting a criminal investigation into Trump and his campaign to see if there is any evidence of criminal collusion with the Russians. The Trump campaign have responded by throwing Mike Flynn and Paul Manafort under the bus. That is what Nixon did in the slow process of his dying reign.

 The biggest irony is that Trump trumpets his strong armed tactics

as his main attribute. He, the man whose campaign is being

investigated for what amounts to treason, is the guy to rely on to

keep the country safe. Look what has just happened

in London he is about to scream! Trump may reflect that had the

perpetrator had First Amendment Rights, which he so ardently

champions, there would have been more than four dead.

TRUMP/RYANCARE D. 0. A.?

The rubber has hit the road. Populist Trump, has to deliver on his promise to make health care more affordable and available to everyone while repealing the “disastrous Obamacare”. That has to be effected while, simultaneously, ensuring the passage of a health care act acceptable to the Republican legislature. The disunited GOP, which up till now has been able to paper over its vast divisions, has to cobble together legislation that the differing philosophical wings agree to in order to “repeal and replace”.

 As Jay H. Ell has blogged repeatedly, notwithstanding the across the board Republican victories, the Party is far less united than the Democratic Party. The latter are expected to vote en bloc against any Republican proposal. As matters stand there are Republican legislators that are totally against any subsidized health care while there are those that want to hang onto at least the current number insured or even increase the numbers.  Unless a miracle happens the Ryan’s bill, the American Health Care Act, (AHCA), which currently pleases neither Republican faction, is  D. O. A - dead on arrival. Even if it passes the House the Senate objectors seem immutable.

America, like health care, is “very complicated”. There are major constituencies and interest groups that impact a decision of this nature. Obama with all his majorities and a clear mandate ended up with a bastardized plan after eight months of negotiation and compromise. Trump promised an improvement on the status quo and whether the Republican legislators like it or not, implicit in their repeal and replace mantra there is an expectation from the electorate for more health care not less.

So the players are;  the electorate, the Governors of States, the Legislature, the Institutions and Pressure Groups and finally the POTUS himself. But before examining their input the plan itself needs explanation.

THE PLAN AS IT STANDS.

There are two components repeal and replace Obamacare or Affordable Health Act, (ACA). The repeal is easy and the GOP have done the latter sixty times in the Obama era when they never had the responsibility to replace it. If the Conservatives in the GOP had their way that is all that they would do. However, that would negate election promises which in one way or another promised to replace it with something “better”. 

Well, instead, the new plan gets rid of the component that extends Medicaid, the insurance for the poor. It eliminates the monetary subsidies and replaces them with tax credits, for those with lower incomes that don’t qualify for Medicaid. These credits are a complicated process to collect and don’t provide the cash there and then to pay. The analysis is that the whole maneuver will ensure drop outs from insurance cover. Then these tax concessions are based on age rather than income, disadvantaging those with lower incomes. However, the AHCA allows for seniors to be charged up to five times as much as compared to the youth by insurers. The mandate for everyone to enroll is removed so the healthy young will opt out thereby placing a greater onus on the seniors to cover the whole burden, therefore risking skyrocketing premiums. The tax on the rich associated with the Affordable Care Act, (ACA), has been removed so the rich benefit decidedly by the new dispensation.

The Ryan effort lays the ground work to axe Planned Parenthood the organization that provides reproductive health services and other primary care services in six hundred and fifty clinics across the country. It serves close on three million patients and in 2014 performed nearly ten million individual services. The money that it receives from the Government is in return for Medicaid interactions and is not a straight grant. The reason for the anger, which will throw an already dysfunctional health system into greater disarray, is that Planned Parenthood provides abortion services in 3% of it’s clinical activities.

The good news is that the Ryan plan still mandates insurance companies to not exclude patients on the basis of pre existing conditions and still allows children up to the age of twenty six to remain on their parents plans.  Even better news for the Republicans is that the AHCA  is programmed to come into effect in 2020 so that it is unlikely to impact the mid term and the 2020 Presidential election.

THE ELECTORATE AND THE GOVERNORS OF THE STATES:

The recent congressional recess saw pandemonium at the Republican town hall meetings at the threat of removing “Obamacare”. The message was loud and clear - Don’t touch what we have already. The number that are covered to date as a result of Obama’s Affordable Care Act, (ACA), is twenty - million.  The enrollment for 2017 shot up dramatically to six and a half million. The recruitment number is far more than last year which fact has to be indicative that many believe this is their last chance for coverage. 

The Obama ACA increased coverage by two methods - by increasing the pool of Americans eligible for Medicaid which is the entitlement program for those in the lowest income bracket and by creating a program whereby those without insurance could gain acceptance. Some of those lower income groups who didn’t qualify for Medicaid received subsidies. This  was especially attractive for those with preexisting conditions, who previously were excluded from insurance.  With regard to the Medicaid expansion program, thirty - two of the fifty states adapted it. (Some of the eighteen that didn’t are having serious second thoughts on the matter). Several of the States that signed on are Republican controlled. Most significantly the key rust belt States, that swung the Electoral College to Trump, participate. The majority of angry whites who had lost manufacturing and mining jobs are recipients of Obamacare. (Remember they were voting for a replacement that was bigger and better). 

It is obvious where the Dem Governors stand but they have Republican bed fellows. The ACA dished out nearly a hundred billion to the participating States and the Republican Governors still want their share. In addition they don’t want the flack from those that will either lose coverage or pay more for it. John Kasich of Ohio, a crucial State in the populist’s surprise victory, has lead the charge not to alter the status quo. Kasich has advocated that the GOP cooperate with the Democrats to improve Obamacare. Now the Congressional legislators in the affected States also need to give the issue one long hard look and some already have. Senators from Ohio, West Virginia, Alaska, Colorado and Maine have already have signaled that they are not on board. Added to the State opposition a hundred and thirty mayors have signed a letter to register their concerns on the repeal of the ACA.

CONSTITUENCIES WITHIN THE GOP LEGISLATURE

The Congress is the first problem for Ryan’s legislation. The AHCA is ostensibly a compromise between the two viewpoints - repeal and don’t replace and repeal and replace with “something”. Remember there are two mechanisms whereby Americans have obtained insurance under the ACA - Medicaid expansion and the newly created pools for individuals. The proposed legislation faces the biggest challenge in the Senate where there are fixed opinions on both sides of the Republican divide. There are at least five GOP Senators that won’t truck a plan that excludes the Medicaid Extension Plan and a similar number who want no replacement entitlement component whatsoever. There are reports that potentially there are up to twenty Republican Senators that for different reasons might vote against the Ryan plan or what Senator Schumer calls “Trumpcare”. Only three Republicans need to switch to defeat the Bill. Even if the bill survives the House, as matters stand at the moment it would take a major shift in positions for it to pass the Senate.

The House of Representatives most vocal opponents are those that were elected under the Tea Party banner. They now refer to themselves as the Freedom Caucus. These are not exactly middle of the road players open to compromise. Their position is that there should be no entitlement component, period. There are forty of them and they generally move as a pack. There are several other Congressmen who object to the Bill as it stands, a few of them objecting to the loss of coverage. It is not for nothing that Ryan labels his effort as “conservative” as that is the constituency he has to convince to go with him to hustle this through the House. Twenty House Republicans voting against are enough to kibosh the whole venture.

According to Fox News the non partisan Congressional Budget Office analysis has declared the AHCA more expensive and will cover fewer. Fox stated that their sources believed that this will make Ryan’s and Trump’s task that much harder. The Secretary of Health Tom Price has attempted to reassure by claiming the draft bill can be amended -“It is a work in progress”. The Brooking’s Institute’s projections are that with the AHCA fifteen of the twenty  - million who gained insurance on the ACA will lose it within ten years.

THE INSTITUTIONS AND PRESSURE GROUPS.

The Republican conservative think tanks have been unequivocal in condemning the plan as a sell out. Terms like Obamacare Light have been bandied about to characterize the offering. The influential Heritage Foundation labelled the AHCA, Obamacare 2, bad politics and bad policy. The Club for Growth have sarcastically dubbed the effort “Ryancare”. Joe Antos of the American Institute, the Cato Institute as well as The Tea Party Patriots slammed the operation claiming that the Republicans are reneging on their commitment for full repeal of Obamacare. The influential mega donors, The Koch Brothers, who have literally poured tens of billions of dollars into electing candidates so that this day would arrive, are screaming fowl.

The real pressure groups who can line up citizen votes are basically on the “adequate replacement” side of the divide. The American Association of Retired Persons who have a membership of nearly forty million have unequivocally panned the new health care act. They maintain that senior citizens come out very badly especially as the insurance companies have been given the green light to charge fees up to five times more than the young subscribers. To add insult to injury the elderly tax credits are relatively far less than their younger counterparts.The American Hospital Association say that with the reduction of Medicaid enrollees they will be providing more free care. They claim that rural hospitals are at risk and may have to close as most are barely covering costs at the moment. The American Medical Association, (doctors), and the American Nursing Association have expressed alarm and have declined to support the prospective legislation on the basis that it would result in the decline in insurance coverage and the harm it would cause to the most vulnerable populations.  The celebrated Kaiser Foundation medical think tank have added its findings to the mass of research that indicates a negative impact on health care. The  American Medical Insurance Association objections to the AHCA leaves the Ryan/Trump endeavor with no organized medical administrative support. 

Then the Academic bodies of medicine of virtually every major discipline have weighed in. These include the Association of American Colleges, Family Medicine, Internal Medicine, Pediatrics and Osteopathy. Medscape a site that provides information to the profession reports that the American Public Health Association put forward that the bill would jeopardize the health and lives of millions of America people. They point to the eradication of a key component of the ACA that provides twelve percent of the funding for the Center of Disease Control and Prevention, is dropped. 

So from both ends of the political spectrum there are the flood of lobbyists and activists that are against the bill and none on the record as supporting it.

THE POTUS

Trump after initially being blasé about the whole process has committed himself holus bolus to the Ryan endeavor. In supporting the AHCA he has broken a key campaign pledge to increase medical coverage to every American, making it more affordable and of a higher standard. (This type of betrayal doesn’t worry The Donald because when the time comes he will go into the bullshit mode and lie his way around it). His stated objective is to persuade the conservative non believers to go along with the AHCA in what will be a crucial test for his Presidency. If he can’t pull the Party together he will have failed as its leader. While the velcro Trump has proved everyone wrong time and again, he seems to have his work cut out this time. However he is already tweeting that if the bill doesn’t pass it will be the Democrats fault!

The fact that the Republican Congressional leaders of the “repeal only” group have already come out in opposition rather than wait to negotiate and speak with Trump does not augur well for his ability to persuade them to go along for the greater good of the Party. Maybe he wasn’t around for the Tea Party takeover of the GOP. They got in before him and they have enough votes to dictate the direction of the Republican Party. Ask former House Speaker Boehner who lived through it all till his position became untenable. He has predicted that repeal and replacement is not going to happen.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

For Trump the defeat would be a major set back which will put him on a path of tweeting and accusing. He owns it whether he likes it or not. It is not for nothing that the Democrats insist on calling the AHCA, “Trumpcare”. Who knows what pressure he will apply to “Seal the Deal”.

If the bill fails the deficiencies of Obamacare must be immediately addressed. In a sane world it would also present an opportunity to revamp the most costly inefficient healthcare service in the world. It chews up one out of every six dollars, sixteen percent of GDP, far more than in comparative countries. The administrative costs are an unholy thirty percent of that total - about a trillion dollars. Hospital and Health System CEO’S earn millions. Health care costs are the commonest cause of individual bankruptcy. Ironically more and more of those who can afford it leave the country for elective medical procedures. There is an incredible imbalance in the distribution of medical specialties making the country dependent on internationally trained doctors to fill in the gap for Primary Care and rural services. (This would be exacerbated in Planned Parenthood got the chop). Trump’s projected Muslim ban left a big gap in some Residency Programs even though it involved only a few Middle East countries.  Malpractice litigation increases costs dramatically as Doctors practice defensive medicine ordering test after test. Just to highlight some of the issues. 

Ironically, Hillary Clinton’s 1990’s plan came the closest to addressing the American health care problem that involves educational institutions as well. 

TRUMP: WHY LIE ABOUT OBAMA?

Donald Trump after a brief break from lying, ( The Washington Post Fact Checker noted that for the first time in memory it didn’t have to fact check Trump for a whole twenty - four hour period), tweeted that Barack Obama,“Bad or Sick Guy”, personally ordered a wiretap on Trump Towers. He wailed McCarthyism, Nixon/Watergate and “Tapp, (sic), during very sacred election process”. The next day he followed it up demanding an enquiry into Obama's alleged felony.

Why would he do something so outrageous and easily provable as that lie? The answer is simple - it suddenly halted the discussion on the Trump Russian connection. 

TRUMP’S DIVERSIONARY TACTIC - OBAMA BUGGED TRUMP TOWERS!

Trump knows the conventional media still don’t know how to handle his unashamed lying as the Sunday talk shows proved. Their discussions ranged from outright shock, to how to prove Trump wrong, to whether it was justifiable to ouright call this garbage lies. “Maybe one should wait and see?”,  “Are the FBI entitled to acknowledge this?” or “How does one know that he doesn’t really believe it?” were common contributions to the Trump debate. Then the politicians promised to investigate and Lindsey Graham threatened that the world would come to an end if Obama indeed did do this. Some Republicans in Congress want to send this matter to the Intelligence Committees. In fairness the consensus among the sane is that Trump has gone off the rails.

Trump also knows that his base will believe it or at least agree on the Obama probe. To the fawning sane around him he can always grudgingly concede much later, “Barack Obama didn’t wire tap me - period”. Some in the press will  then herald this as a sign that the much awaited transformation in the POTUS has finally begun, again!

The fact that the former Director of Intelligence James Clapper has categorically denied that the Intelligence Agencies that he oversaw did not wiretap Donald Trump nor did the FBI seek a warrant to do so will not put a stop to this madness. In a futile last ditch effort to save the President from himself FBI Director Comey asked the Justice Department to reassure Trump that there had been no wire tap. However Trump may rant there is no reason that Jay H. Ell will be sidetracked. So onto the real deal - Russia.

WHERE WERE WE MARCH 2? OH YES IN RUSSIA

So let us get back to the Russian connection which amongst all the chaos surrounding Trump stands out. Let us get back to where the debate was on March the Second following the revelation that yet another member of the Trump camp, the Chief Cop to be, Jeff Sessions, at his confirmation hearing as Attorney General had lied, or should Jay H. Ell say misspoke.  He initially claimed that he had had no conversations with the Russian Ambassador. His explanations as to why he waited for the Washington Post to jog his memory before recalling the meetings with Putin's representative were facile. He had extremely good recall in some areas of the interactions but where it mattered no recollection whatsoever. He claimed he  had met the Russian Ambassador at the Trump Republican Convention as a Senate Member of the Armed Committee although the Senate account is not where his expenses for the meeting were paid from.

But Sessions is just one more strand in what is building up to be scandal of monumental proportions. At least he had the good grace to kinda recuse himself from some of the possible related investigations. This as opposed to resigning and having himself charged with perjury.

THE RUSSIAN CONNECTION

• It is incontrovertible that Russia hacked, spread false news and the like in an attempt to subvert the American Electoral Process. Let that sink in - seventeen American Intelligence Agencies came to that conclusion and Obama instituted sanctions as a result. They didn’t wage conventional war to change the political process or influence hearts and minds in America they waged cyber warfare. They didn’t physically break into the Democratic National Committee’s headquarters, they hacked it electronically. John McCain has outright called the Putin behavior an act of war. The Russian Tzar did this with two objectives in mind - to weaken the American Democratic Process and to favor one candidate over another, namely Donald J. Trump. 

• It is fair to say that Russia and America, while not in a declared war are at opposite sides of the world political divide. Without going into too much detail Russia are threatening NATO, America’s major military alliance. Most recently they invaded Ukraine, a country that desires to join NATO, and seized Crimea which is a strategic chunk of the Ukraine. As a result America initiated sanctions. Putin and Obama have been on opposite sides in the Syrian Civil War - the former backing the dictator Assad and America supporting the rebel factions. 

• In his campaign, while the ongoing hacking and release of documents to Wikileaks was going on Trump praised and supported Putin. The Donald even called on Putin to hack Hillary’s e mails. Trump denied to the bitter end of the campaign that it was Putin that was behind the hacking. He cheerfully used the Wikileaks releases, that have been credibly linked to Putin, to attack Clinton mercilessly. In short Trump capitilized on Putin's actions.

• A thirty five page dossier on the Trump Russian connection surfaced which the US Intelligence Services found credible enough to warn both Trump and Obama about. The purpose of the warning was that it contained material that could potentially be used as blackmail against Trump. The high power US intelligence delegation maintained that Trump was at risk of being blackmailed as a result of its salacious contents which detailed behavior and financial allegations. It was compiled by a Christopher Steele a former British MI - 6 agent. The agent is well known to the FBI who offered to pay Steele to continue with his investigation. The FBI have utilized Steele’s services in the FIFA corruption scandal and is regarded as "credible".

• The dossier contained, as yet, uncorroborated explosive material as to the motivation of Russian behavior in their support of tilting the US election in favor Trump. The report alleges that that the Russians believed that had material to blackmail Trump into their bidding.

Arising out of all this is the question as to whether Trump colluded in any of the Russian activity.  An assertion that he vigorously denies. In fact it would constitute treason at the highest and impeachment at the lowest if he had. This charge cannot be confirmed or denied without an exhaustive impartial investigation. As matters stand the evidence at best is circumstantial.

TRUMP AND HIS CAMPAIGN’S STRANGE RELATIONSHIP WITH PUTIN AND RUSSIA

Trump.

It is fair comment that Trump has done nothing to disabuse conspiracy theorists that he is in this up to his neck. He has given so many different stories as to whether he has met Putin or not that it is quite a hoot to watch them being played over and over on TV. He has gone and on as to how wonderful Putin in and how “nice” it would be if America and Russians had good relations. In spite of denials of financial involvement in Russia his son is on record as saying that the Trump organization does a disproportionate amount of business with Russia. 

He has known relationships with Russian oligarchs which he denies. He had documented relationships with a Felix Later who Trump claimed at a deposition that he barely knows him. Felix Later connected him, according to Forbes, with several other oligarchs. More recently courtesy of Russian oligarch, Dmitri Rybolovlev The Donald more than doubled his money within two years when the Rybolovlev paid him ninety - five million dollars for a home in Florida that the Russian has never seen. A report on The Rachel Madow Show put Rybolovlev’s airplane, on a number of occasions, at the same time and place as Trump's as the latter darts around America. The rumor being that old Dmitri is the conduit to Vladimir.

Other stories abound about of Russian business connections.

Trump Campaign Team And Administration

The fact is that Trump’s campaign is littered with operatives that have had extensive contact with Russia and even Putin. (Blog: Trump: Nixon on Steroids - Russiagate?“) With monotonous regularity comrades have fallen off the Trump wagon as a result of their affiliation with Mother Russia, From Paul Mannafort, his partner Roger Stone and Carter Page to Mike Flynn, his former Chief Security Advisor they have all bitten the dust. More significantly there are three Cabinet members with significant ties to Russia. The Secretary of State Tillerson, former CEO of EXON, who has done deals directly with Russia, has opposed sanctions and has been awarded The Friend of Russia medal from Putin himself. Jeff Sessions, his Attorney General most recently had his cover blown when his memory improved for him to recollect meetings with the Russian Ambassador. 

Then there is Wilbur Ross the Secretary of Commerce who is Vice President of the Bank of Cyprus. The other Vice President is a Russian oligarch. The recently appointed CEO of Cyprus Bank is a former disgraced head of the Deutsche Bank. The Deutsche Bank paid a $7.2 billion fine for Russian money laundering. The Bank of Cyprus is the bank where the Russian oligarchs are thought to do most of their money laundering. Bloomberg reported that the Donald owes the Deutsche Bank $300 million. This is one of Trump’s many conflicts of interest that don’t gain too much traction because he has so many other issues.

NOW WHAT?

Trump hasn’t done himself much of a favor by his unbelievably recklessly accusations. It did succeed in the short term, as it always does, in deflecting attention from the main issue - Russiagate. However he might have given the Republicans an out to conduct a wide reaching bi partisan investigation with subpoena powers. They can now agree to investigate both Obama and the Russian connection. They may even find a way to get at Trump’s taxes. He has to come out so badly whatever happens.

Needless to say other issues will hit the fan while Russiagate carries on of its own momentum. There is the retreaded travel ban executive order which however carefully crafted is sure to ignite protest and court challenges, the ACA repeal and replace has to be unveiled sooner or later…and so on. 

Only 199 weeks to go of the Trump Presidency. 

TRUMP: PRESIDENT FOR A NIGHT?

To an audible hour long sigh of relief from the assembled Republicans, Trump delivered a State of the Union speech that was dramatically changed in tone but not to much in substance. Even the style was different. He used some big words and there was not one “believe me” or “sad”. It was also pathetically thin on specifics. The speech was to a large extent a rehash of his campaign efforts with the usual exhortation to Make America Great Again. He was unashamedly contradictory where it was political to do so. The change in tone and style had the effect of appearing to soften the President’s image and agenda. In short he sounded more Presidential but his content raised more questions than it answered. 

There were a few concessions to intense pressure from both within and without the party such as finally condemning anti semitic acts, condemning an act of violence perpetrated by a white extremist and expressing support of NATO. In addition there was an optimistic note with the declaration that a new chapter of American greatness was beginning - largely due to his presence and efforts of course. However he did nothing to dispel the elephant in the chamber, his Chief Advisor Stephen Bannon’s gobblygook, explanation, at the Conservative Political Action Conference, of his anarchistic agenda which spells a message of darkness. 

The POTUS’S preoccupation with the advantages of a rapprochement with his soulmate Putin and his Russia was not mentioned. Ironically in the glow of his successful first State of the Nation speech stories were breaking on the relationship between Trump’s campaign and Russia. The latter will turn his metamorphosis from a frog into a prince to a one night wonder.

LOW BAR

The bar for the POTUS is so low that the consensus was that this was a great speech. The obsequious Marco Rubio said this was the greatest President speech ever. In truth it was not as rabble rousing, crude and shambolic as his campaign efforts. Nor was it as offensive as the stream of unintelligible consciousness that his Press Conferences and Tweets could be. It didn’t descend to the depths of the darkness of hell that he conjured up in his inauguration speech. However it was still premised that America resembled a wasteland that could only be saved by his intervention, with all our help of course. 

DIVISIVE TRUMP AND DIVISIVE GOP

After conducting the most divisive campaign in history and displaying total disregard, up to that very moment, to anyone other than his base he called for cooperation with the Democrats but offered nothing in return. Trump’s offer for collaboration has to be seen in the context of his behavior to date and in the light of the fact that he changes his position on every subject every other day. 

The fact that the Republicans had only two policies the last eight years, namely oppose everything Obama and repeal Obamacare makes his plea that much more hollow. In addition he keeps harping that he inherited a mess. It was Obama that inherited a catastrophe and virtually saved the American economy. Then he brought down unemployment to less than five percent. Obama too proposed an infrastructure plan which the Republicans, like everything else Obama, refused to even discuss. 

THE FOREIGNERS

The compromise on a comprehensive immigration policy that he had floated prior to the speech was discarded. He stuck to the central theme on the campaign that the bogeyman and cause for the American ills were the undocumented immigrants. The media and special interests were hiding the truth. Rather, he reinforced the concept that the undocumented Latinos were “murderers, rapists and drug dealers” by calling on victims that were invited guests. (This in the teeth of the evidence that the Cato Institute that immigrants were less likely to commit crimes than native born Americans).  He reassured the Congress that deportations were taking place while he spoke. Put another way there was nothing to comfort all the undocumented that he wasn’t going to deport all eleven million of them.

THE AFFORDABLE HEALTHCARE ACT (ACA) OBAMACARE

Obamacare still appears to stick in the Republican crawl to the extent that they are prepared to live or die by its successful repeal and replacement. They are unanimous that this should be their first order of business. Trump admitted, following representations from Governors and the widespread support the ACA received in a week long countrywide protest, that he never knew healthcare was so complicated. In spite of the latter fact that he offered a solution without knowing politically how he was going to get there, and how it would all be cobbled together. He gave directives on what to put in this “disastrous” act’s place. He made Speaker Ryan happy by recommending payment for coverage via tax credits and health care saving accounts. He wanted the most popular provision included - coverage for preexisting conditions and to drive down the high cost of drugs. Then he wanted Medicaid to be flexible enough “to make sure no one would be left out”. A national healthcare market which crossed state borders was mooted. This is a practical impossibility as most of the companies operate in local, state or regional markets. Finally, there all this had to be done while having a stable transition of those citizens that were currently on the ACA. He lamely added that his solution would provide better health care and reduce costs.

The only consensus amongst the Republican factions on the ACA is that it has to be the first order of the legislative agenda. The diehard Tea Party faction really just want to repeal. Ryan is focussed on payment via Tax Credits and has offered no comprehensive plans for all the other issues. Those that were grilled at Town Hall meetings represent another viewpoint. To quote Senator Grassley, “There is a consensus among Republicans now that you have to be more cautious with what your’e going to do. That didn’t mean much to me in November or December but it means a lot now”. Senator Collins of Maine will not go along with any plan that rolls back Medicaid while the diehards want to axe the Medicaid provision totally.

Now the Democrats too want this to be the first item for debate. They know the pitfalls, as Obama, with a majority in both houses as well, took well over a year to pass it. He used up all his political capital and in the midterms lost his majorities. Just in case the factions in the GOP aren’t enough to handle there are the interest groups. Health care has more lobbyists by far than other entity. Obama “accommodated” the insurance companies and the American Medical Association to get his legislation through. It is not for nothing that the Dems response to Trump’s State of the Nation speech was given by the seventy - two year old retired Governor of Tennessee, Steve Beshear. Tennessee is a red state that successfully introduced Obamacare. Beshear can speak from firsthand as to its success and the impact of its being repealed.

FINANCES

Now Trump whose life has been spent on borrowing, leveraging and then not paying if necessary indicated that he wants to spend like a drunken sailor - one trillion on infrastructure and lowering taxes for everyone and the corporations. The he suggests an increase in defense spending of $64 billion. This will be paid for by drastically cutting back on discretionary spending. He wants to decapitate the State Department’s budget. This lead Republican Senator Lindsay Graham to comment that doing the latter will make his budget dead on arrival. Although not featured in his blockbuster State of the Nation he does not want to touch Medicare and Social Security. (Ryan has been on and on about axing these two entitlements since time immemorial). In mentioning that “beautiful wall” he omitted to detail how the twenty - one billion dollar tag will be met. An analysis of his potential Budget and the dissension it will cause in the fiscally conservative ranks of the Republican Party almost makes one understand why Obamacare must come first. Just keep calling it Obamacare not the ACA because they literally hate him

Jay H. Ell nearly forgot, how he proposes to pay for it all. All the prosperity that all the above will engender will bring the bacon home apparently and that will balance the budget and not add to the deficit.

JOBS: 

Now this is what Trump is supposedly all about and this is where he told the biggest lie of the evening. (According to the Washington Post Fact Checker there were thirteen false claims and or inaccuracies in the speech). Trump claimed that there are ninety - four million Americans not in the labor force - one out of five people. Ninety -  three million of those according to the Post don’t want to work as they are either retired, disabled, or studying. Currently the unemployment rate is at lowest for decades at 4.8% which translates to about seven million looking for work. 

The list of companies that he maintained that he had “persuaded” to remain in America and thereby create jobs included Ford, Fiat Chrysler and Soft Bank all of whom have publicly denied that their decision had anything to do with Trump. Then Trump claimed that by okaying the Keystone and the Dakota Pipelines he was creating tens of thousands of jobs. The Keystone pipeline will in fact only acquire three thousand eight hundred jobs. Added to all this baloney is the jobs he will create by his immigration policy. The only jobs he will add are the additional 15,000 that are needed to carry out it out.

He forgot to mention all those mining and manufacturing jobs he was going to create - all those coal mines he is going to reopen. He better get all those factories back as well by 2018 otherwise the very people that gave him his surprise victory may either stay at home or vote against him.  

Incidentally if the Labor Department are correct and that there are only seven million people looking for jobs then he is going to have large scale immigration to get all of this done. Mexico is right next to the wall. Maybe he can employ some of them - legally of course. 

SEAN, CARRYN AND WILLIAM RYAN

Undoubtedly the most moving scene of the evening was the reaction of the distraught widow of Seal Ryan Owens who was killed on the abortive Seals raid in Yemen. In retrospect, bearing in mind the controversy surrounding that exercise, it may well appear inappropriate to have focussed on this tragedy. It is likely to return the floodlights back onto the POTUS’S role in the misadventure which also killed twenty - five civilians including children and resulted in the loss of military hardware costing seventy - five million dollars. When confronted with the fact that he made the life or death decision casually, over dinner, he immediately claimed that the incursion had been sanctioned by the Obama administration. When that was proven to be a lie he intimated that it was the Generals. Someone should tell him that he is President and that is where the buck stops.

Following a classified briefing Senator John McCain, Head of the Senate Armed Services Committee declared the mission a failure. He claimed that the POTUS had been warned of the dangers of it and that the enemy had been tipped off. McCain added that it was Committee’s objective that this wouldn’t happen again. This resulted in a back and forth between McCain, Press Secretary Spicer and off course The Donald. 

Trump comforted the distraught Carryn Owens by reassuring her that valuable intelligence had been gleaned that would save other lives. This fact too is disputed with conflicting reports emanating from officials. Ryan’s father Mr. William Owens questioned the necessity of the raid arguing that for years the sorties on Yemen were with missiles and drones and Trump after one week sends in ground troops “ Now all of a sudden we had to make this grand display”. Mr. Owens refused to shake the President’s hand on the occasion of the return of his son’s remains.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

• There is little doubt by sticking to the script the POTUS saved himself from falling over the political precipice. The expectations were so low that he only needed a D to pass. He got an A for presentation and an E for content.  His base will still stick with him and maybe those in the middle will give him another chance. 
• Jay H. Ell is not reassured as to what his policy was last night. For example, what is going to be the position on NATO tomorrow. Yesterday he was supportive, The day before he wasn’t. Then a major campaign promise was health care for all and now, with Ryan, it is access to health care for all… Same with so many other promises and issues.  
• His team only took his tweeting phone away from him for the night so it cannot be long before he is back in campaign mode. 
• The  State of the Nation address is a short term panacea because it can’t paper up the divisions in the Republican Party and between him and the Republican Party.
• His immediate problem is the ACA. The medium term trouble is the continuing revelations of the Putin Russian connection. That is really serious and the one issue that the Republicans cannot ignore. In the longer term the failure to deliver the jobs he promised in the rust belt will be the issue.. 
• He once again surprised everyone and with his speech pulled another rabbit out of his hat. If the Russian connection would just go away, if he can finally get an administration in place, doesn’t thrust America into WW111, forget about Bannon and his bizarre anarchistic political theories and can govern with responsibility, maybe he will continue to surprise.  
• Don’t tell The Donald that his audience was ten million less than Obama’s was at the latter’s first State of the Nation because he is guaranteed to undo all the good he did with his “historical” speech. 
• The speech is forgotten with the new revelations on Russia putting the spotlight on the collusion with them and Trump's taxes.