PROTEST TRUMP’S AMERICA.

Suddenly the media narrative switched from Tzar Trump’s non stop outpourings to covering the flood of protests across the country. These have been in evidence since the inauguration when over four million demonstrated in Women’s Protest Marches, in every nook and cranny of America. Even with that in mind the sheer weight of dissent in the week of President’s Day surprised everyone. In the wake of the Trump Presidency a countrywide protest has emerged which promises to influence the behavior of Congress in the short term and possibly its make up in the long term. 

The President, Vice President and the WhiteHouse Press Secretary helped stoke the media interest by belittling the participant citizens as either being bussed in, paid protestors or just activists. In addition George Soros, with no proof whatsoever, was credited as paying the million or so women who poured into Washington for their appearance at the March. Ads appeared in twenty cities entitled “Demand Protest” offering two thousand five hundred dollars for services in Washington. It was subsequently proved that the ad was a hoax. All this hullabaloo focused even more attention on the civil upheavals.

The the sheer volume of turmoil was as a result of Congressmen returning to their constituencies for a week's break. Traditionally, this is the opportunity for Town Hall Meetings for constituents. The voters were packed like sardines at the meeting halls and subjected the Republican lawmakers to incredible pressure. Orchestrating this escalating opposition was a web of integrating and informative entities which have been spawned in the social media in the wake of the election. The enormity of the nation wide groundswell protest is a real historical first for President Trump, both by its very existence this early in a Presidency and by its size and breadth. The outcry has been characterized as being even more widespread than the Vietnam War protests.

AGENDAS OF TOWN HALL MEETINGS 

A wide range of subjects were covered at the boisterous gatherings. The topic that received the most attention was the Affordable Care Act, (ACA), or Obamacare. In meeting after meeting protestors proclaimed its virtue and how their lives had been saved a result. Some argued that their finances had been rescued alluding to the fact that prior to the Act millions of Americans had been forced into bankruptcy by medical bills. The latter being the commonest cause of insolvency. Senator Cotton from Arkansas conceded that it had helped may Arkansians. 

The influential Iowian Senator Grassley, chairman of the Judiciary Committee summed up the impact of the championing of the ACA, “There is a consensus among Republicans now that you have to be more cautious with what your’e going to do. That didn’t mean much to me in November or December but it means a lot now.” Congressman Sanford mused that two key provisions that would most likely have to stay: the provision that mandates coverage regardless of pre existing conditions and the ability to keep children on parents' insurance till they were twenty - six years old. There seemed to be a consensus that the increased coverage by the expansion of Medicaid under Obamacare would not only be not touched but expanded. 

While these Town Halls saw Republicans put space between them and the President on several matters the ACA concessions were the most significant. The latter was the signature policy change of the campaign and ostensibly one that both Trump and the GOP legislators were ad idem on. Both the POTUS and the Vice POTUS, as recently as February twenty - forth, emphasized at the Conservative Political Action Conference that “Repeal and Replace” of the “disastrous” ACA is the legislative the priority.  On the very same day John Boehner, the former Republican Speaker said repeal and replacement was not going to happen and no one should know better than him as he had tried scores of times. There is no doubt that tone deaf Bannon and Trump might still try and replace it with some crummy alternative. If they succeed the consequences in the public place will be deafening.

Other concessions made by Republican legislators to their irate constituents included that the President should produce his tax returns, reservations on the President's behavior, investigations into the Russian scandal, (Darryl Issa even agreeing to an independent Special Prosecutor) and the dangers of the educational philosophy of Betsy De Vos. A number of Republicans ducked out of holding meetings completely resulting in them being held without them.

While the ACA is the issue that is emerging as the one that might impact elections the most, the Russian connection is the one with the most traction among GOP legislators at the moment. 

PROTEST ENTITIES 

While there are several established progressive organizations, who are waging opposition,three new protest organizations have hit the scene with a resounding impact: The Women’s March, Indivisible Movement and Michael Moore’s Resistance Calendar. 

The Women’s March

The organizers of the Women’s March on Washington have set up a countrywide network of groups. A visit to their website will give a roadmap of how far they have gone in expanding their operation. Although their initial march was hastily organized they were still able to collaborate with four hundred and three organizations. They proudly proclaim that they have graduated into a world wide movement - “Hear our Voice” is their cri de guerre.  Their organization is vast and extensive whether it be providing maps, coordinating transport, legal advice, fund collecting, exhorting activism and integrating with other protest movements.

They have planned Ten Actions For The First 100 Days. Their presence was in full force on President’s Day Week and probably was one of the driving forces in canvassing constituents to attend the Congressional Legislators meetings. The next major event, which is being planned like a military operation, is on International Women’s Day - “A Day Without a Woman” on March 8.

As the first Trump Protest Movement to take root they are now collaborating with twenty other organizations that range from the Indivisible group, who have produced the handbook for forming pressure factions, to Women’s Rights bodies throughout the world. 

Indivisible Movement

There is little doubt that the operation that has had the most impact at getting opposition mobilized is the Indivisible Movement. This movement was dreamed up by a few former staffers to legislators who created a manual as to how to influence Congress members. Ezra Levin, a co founder, detailed the philosophy behind the organization. He argued that Trump’s agenda depended on whether Congress backed it up or not. The twenty six page guide has been downloaded over a million times and a half times and six thousand protest groups have registered on line in all fifty states. Sixty thousand activists have called in for advice and two hundred thousand individuals have signed on to be “active”. There are seventy volunteers running the outfit with only one being paid. The fact that there have been massive turnouts at the Congressional Town Halls and legislators have been swamped like never before has to be largely due to their efforts. 

The comparison between Indivisible and the Tea Party is obvious. The latter revolutionized the Republican Party but were more involved in internally changing the GOP rather then taking on the opposition party, as is Indivisible. Also it took some time post Bush and into Obama's first term for the Tea Party movement to form while Indivisible was established two months before theTrump inauguration. The challenge will be to see whether this organization’s outcomes are translated into ballot box success.

Michael Moore’s Resistance Calendar.

The Academy winning documentary film maker is rallying the troops to the hustings. He has introduced a website which features a Calendar which gives details of any meetings or events, throughout the country, which provide an opportunity for “resistance”.  He has released “The Michael Moore Easy To Follow Ten Point Plan To Stop Trump”. Here he outlines tactics and has suggested the formation of “Rapid Response Teams” to lead the struggle. He wants Democrats to run for every possible office and says he is beginning to see results in that “it is raining candidates”. The plan exhorts citizens to call their Congressmen daily - he even has a smart phone application that helps facilitate the objective. The latter pressure should be accompanied by a visit to your legislator’s office every month. He spurs his followers on to “become the media” by piling on the activism on the internet. 

Faxes

According to a piece on the FiveThirtyEight website a popular method of pressurizing legislators is by fax. This is in addition to phone messages, which have jammed most offices and e mails. The article lists twenty Republicans that have received over a thousand faxes over about a month. The leader of the pack is Senator Patrick Toomey who barely won the key state of Pennsylvania. He has been credited with being the recipient of twenty thousand faxes. The reason there are stats on this metric is that Congress faxes are tracked by a company called Faxzero. Of the twenty - five legislators most faxed there are only a few Democrats. Apparently faxing is considered an effective way to get the representatives' attention and sites such as The Daily Kos give detailed instructions on how to get this done.

WILL THE PRESSURE HAVE AN IMPACT?

Jay H. Ell has only focussed on new additions to the progressive upsurge. While these show no signs of flagging, in fact their impact seems to be increasing daily, the question is will they make any difference to the balance of political power. Bannon and Trump in outlining “the final solution” have not fully taken into account the checks and balances that exist in the courts, the media, the citizenry, leaks from Governmental agencies and last, but most important, Congress. It would appear that at least some of the Republican legislators are giving the Trump agenda a long hard look. For starters Trump should get ready to rant and a rave on the expected tardiness and failure to produce a replacement for Obamacare. Maybe he will get some "repair" but whatever happens he is going to have blame someone for non deliverance of a key campaign promise. 

At the end of the day what really counts is repealing and replacing Trump and the Republicans. There are the 2018 Congressional Elections which are traditionally favorable to the Party not in power. Before that are a string of special elections which are going to be very telling. These will quickly answer whether or not the protests have had any impact or is the situation the way Trump perceives it to be? Is the Bannon strategy that Trump’s less than fifty percent support is still holding therefore no attempt need be made to appeal to anyone other than the faithful? Or are the polls right this time and Trump’s backing is now closer to forty percent with his approval rating even lower then the Media which is the “Enemy of the People”.

PROTEST SUPPRESSION 

There is a dark response to the national outrage. According to the Washington Post seventeen States are introducing legislation to crackdown on protests. The rationales that are offered for all encompassing restrictions on protest thinly disguise their intent. For example, safety legislation, the need to keep traffic flowing or to cut down on the spate of paid full-time provocateurs are examples of the justification argued for the restrictive legislation. Some of the legislation has draconian penalties attached to them such as seizure of assets. A Stanford Professor in Sociology, Douglas McAdam, has noted that this is not the first time in history that widespread protests have inspired a legislative backlash. It is not ironic in Jay H. Ell’s opinion that the last such concerted effort was against the Civil Rights Campaign. Then, like now, the move was racist. The former attack on liberty was to keep America white the latest is to make America white again.

The Supreme Court has again and again maintained that public places are sacred arenas for protest. It is an irony however that the most recent strengthening of those provisions reinforced the right of anti abortion protestors to exercise their first amendment rights to shame and bully women who were seeking reproductive advice. 

America is facing its first major threat of totalitarianism since Joseph McCarthy but this time it is a blanket attack on Democracy and is scarily being lead from the WhiteHouse. As Bannon stated at the Conservative Action Conference, there will be a long hard fight as they, (sic), will not easily give up their country!

TRUMP IS NOT GOING TO IMPLODE ON HIS OWN

With his back to the wall the POTUS turned to the well worn tactic that helped him win the Presidency - a populist harangue at a Press Conference and a campaign rally where he gets out his playbook and gives it a full go. First he has to tell you awful it is in America, then he has to name the “enemies” and finally claim as a man of the people he can fix it all up. He bullies the “enemy” by insult and belittling. The Republican Field were the initial victims. He still finds some solace in hammering Hillary but it is the media now that are “the opposition”. So prior to setting of to Florida for the first campaign rally for the 2020 Presidential election, (seriously that is what it was designated as), he, to the surprise of his aides, set up a Press Conference. The outcome of the latter, according to those who are on the right side of sanity, was that it was a disaster of humongous proportions. Capital Hill legislators are said to be either disgusted, (Democrats) or scared out of their minds, (Republicans). But that is not the way Donald, his groupies and his hard core supporters viewed it.

The Donald claimed he enjoyed the Press Conference exercise, “He loved this, he was having a great time”, and agreed with his immediate inner circle that it was an unmitigated success. “Donald being Donald”, “Trump on top of his game” and “The POTUS showed who was boss”, were some of the comments that were said to emanate from the bunker. So any assessment of the chaotic shambles must take into account that this was the Trump that gained the crucial constituencies to flip the electoral college. It has been proved again and again that this behavior, alone, will not cause him to implode. On the contrary there is no proof that the vey hard core that voted for him are upset that President Trump is the same as candidate Trump. While he is reported to be shedding support the faithful are hanging tough.

Put another way it is going to take more than his infantile behavior, habitual lying and the fact that he lives in an alternate reality, to effect his removal or result in his subsequent defeat. There is no way that, regardless of what happens that Trump would resign. An unconventional approach would be needed to remove this unconventional candidate.

THE SHAMBOLIC PRESS CONFERENCE IS JUST WHAT THE DONALD WANTED

Donald J. Trump, held the Press Conference ostensibly to introduce his latest nomination for Secretary of Labor but hardly mentioned him in his seventy -  five minute disjointed, rambling, embarrassing attack on the designated “enemy” the media, their fake news, hate and dishonesty. Interspersed with the attacks and what passed for content the audience was treated to: the notion that the Russian issue was a ruse - the real news was the criminal leaks of information, his incredible election results, that Michael Flynn was a fine fellow, “crooked” Hillary Clinton and the hopeless court that ruled against him. In the teeth of the reported WhiteHouse chaos he countered that his administration was running like a fine tuned machine and no President has done so much in such a short while. (A short while later his replacement nominee for Security Advisor turned him down because of the dysfunction).The harangue was punctuated by the mandatory lies, non sequiturs, lack of answers and paranoia. He correctly forecasted that the media would report that he had ranted and raved. In fact the reviews were far more harsh with more than one reporter questioning his sanity. At best the critique was that the bedlam was nothing remotely akin to what had even been witnessed.

He also argued that what he was doing at this press conference was exactly what he had done on the campaign trail and he had won. He mocked those assembled who had maintained that he could not reach two hundred and twenty - two electoral votes and he had obtained three hundred and six. He then repeated the absurd lie that this was the greatest electoral victory since Ronald Reagan.  Basically he was arguing that his world was reality as the incredulous assembled sniggered and lapped up each answer which would provide tendentious copy to the hungry readership.

Notwithstanding the fact that his polls are rock bottom there has to be some uneasiness that there was more than a grain of truth in Trump’s assertion that this lunacy had not stopped him winning the Presidency. The polls had proved hopelessly wrong before so why should they now provide the reassurance that this “madman” had to implode sooner rather than later? 

Trump obviously has his smarts. He may not have any insight but he has an uncanny knack to get into the inner dark thoughts of a mob as well as identifying with their legitimate woes. He skillfully flames fears. He then he uses his greatest skill, salesmanship, to persuade the target groups that he can deliver. None of this has changed. He knew what he was doing at that Press Conference. In fact he predicted the participants assessment that they would report that he ranted and raved. Trump argued, “The Public, (more accurately his public), doesn’t believe you…maybe I had something to do with that. I didn’t win because of what you said”. He taunted  that the Press’s favorability was less than that of Congress. The latest Gallup poll shows that only thirty - two percent of Americans trust the Press, the lowest ever. 

The bottom line is that there needs to be a reset by the media as to how to deal with the situation and by the real opposition both at the ballot box and in the community. The Republican Party too have to come to a decision in the near future as to whether they are prepared to sink or swim with him.

MEDIA - GET OUT OF THE BOX

The media have gained ratings galore by slavishly following this publicity seeking megalomaniac around. Imputing the highest motives to them it can be argued that post presidency this is done to inform the public in the hope that the electorate would be turned off by him and more importantly they would shame him. Well, nothing shames him and he thrives and wallows in his fake news. During the election the focus was solely on him and he sucked all the oxygen out of the Primary and most of it out of the Presidential election. (Hillary Clinton did not get a fair shake in more ways than one). 

The media are falling into the same trap again. They need to follow up on decisions like refusing to have Kellyanne Conway on set because she lies and axe his soliloquies and campaign rallies. In addition to Trump’s lying apologists the President should be covered only in relation to his Office. It is senseless feeding into his narrative and continuing with the billions of free publicity that got him elected. Coverage of him should be left where it belongs on the late night comedy shows and Saturday Night Live. The Huffington Post initially refused to cover him on the political pages and put him in the entertainment section. That is where he belongs.

There is a ton of other stuff to cover such as the fact that the country is almost in “status protestus”. The streets are filled daily with one or other protest, the most recent the countrywide outpourings on President’s Day where the peaceful mobs cried, “Not my President”. In addition there is currently scant coverage and information on the actions of the Immigration and Customs officials, the plans of the sanctuary cities, the court challenges and on and on. (Jay H. Ell craves to hear about two of the deportation victims - both who mothers who had American children, had lived here for decades and had minor offenses. Where are they now?  Then the activities of groups like Planned Parenthood, the Civil Rights Groups to mention but two as they face the forthcoming onslaught.Then there is strife in many many constituencies where citizens and actions groups are hammering their representatives The pressure they are under needs to be front and center. There are all manner of crises in this country about which nothing is being reported. What is happening in Flint Michigan? The crippling cost of Health Care which like the NRA have armies of lobbyists to protect their business. Find out what the electorate are really thinking? Did those that voted for Donald Trump ask for Tax Reform and decreased taxes for the wealthy? Do they want to see Medicare and Social Security axed?

The media should remember just one point there is only one circumstance that would anger Trump more than the roasting he is receiving now and that would be being ignored.

The real battle is to remove Trump. There is an election in 2018 begin covering it now as there are ongoing election battles between now and 2018. They should be covered as referenda on the Trump Administration.

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY/IES 

Ironically it is not the Democratic Party that are imploding it is the GOP. They are stuck with a President who is not a Republican. He is a populist racist whose ideological agenda is to change the value system of America. The GOP is a spectrum of opinions under one umbrella. There is the Party of long gone which includes the Bush’s and the team of intellectuals, commentators and pundits who have not reconciled with the Trump Party. The Republican Congress is betwixt and between. As the standard bearers of Reagan economics they have very little in common with the Trump electorate. 

The Trump electorate is a coalition of racists and those who have been economically disadvantaged by the unbridled power of the corporations. In addition the latter have suffered as a result of outcomes of orthodox Republican economic policy. The latter have been hoodwinked. Trump has filled his cabinet with representatives of the very company he typified as being at the cause of their woes - Goldman - Sacks. Then he has been silent on core promises he made to in relation to Medicare and Social Security and is removing every protective regulation against the predators that caused the 2008 economic collapse. When push comes to shove how is Trump going to balance his wall costs, tax cuts, increase in cost of living border tax with his hand outs to the rich.

So the Democrats need to get their act together organizationally and unite behind whoever is elected Chairman of the Democratic National Committee and fight every seat. 

DEMOCRATS OPPORTUNITY

The 2018 elections offer the Democrats the biggest opportunity. Traditionally the party in the WhiteHouse take a knock. As it might be imagined the President, even if it’s not Trump, has not delivered on all his/her promises. The elections are thus a referendum on the President. The turn out for the Party in power is always less and the percentage voting is low.  As the Press Conference and subsequent rally indicated Trump is relying on his faithful to vote and making no attempt to attract anyone else.

No lesser group of political pollsters then Five Thirty Eight are cautiously toting the Dems chances. Incidentally, while they, like everyone else forecast Hillary’s victory, warned that it could come unstuck just in the States that it did. Trump received forty - eight percent of the electoral vote in 2016. He is now consistently at forty percent approval rating. If he stays at that figure and the Dems come out to vote then the GOP will loose the House of Representatives. Only twenty four seats need to switch. 

There is a bye election in Georgia to fill a seat vacated by one of the Cabinet picks. While the Republican incumbent won it by thirty percent Trump’s majority in the district was only one and a half points. The outcome here might be a bellwether as to what comes as the Republicans are largely made up the educated suburbanites that had been touted to switch to Hillary.

THE “CAN’T LAST FOUR YEARS” CONSTITUENCY

As the dysfunctional Presidency gathers speed, the conventional wisdom is that this just cannot be sustained. The latest international crisis needed a full court effort to reassure America’s allies that America had not abandoned them or their own values. A large delegation including the Vice President, Cabinet Ministers as well as a Congressional delegation went to the Munich Security Conference and attempted to do what Kellyanne Conway, Sean Spicer and the like do everyday - namely interpret what the President really said or means. The world was reassured, inter alia, that America would stand by NATO and hold Russia accountable. It is one thing to spread jitters within the country but another for the most powerful force for stability in world to go rogue. John McCain spelt it out, on the world stage at Munich, as to what he believed America value system really was which stood in stark contrast to the Trump doctrine. He has also announced that Trump would no longer get a free pass in Congress.

This brings Jay H. Ell to the central point about impeachment which is one way Trump could not see out his four years. Another mechanism for the political process to axe Trump is the twenty -fifth Amendment to the Constitution. It needs the Republicans to sign onto both of these alternatives and there is not an iota of evidence to support that at the moment. Speaker Ryan, in particular, is not prepared to let this opportunity pass to enact his economic agenda. He has to be praying that Trump would just go to Mar a Lago and stay there. However every day is a challenge. 

The one issue that could bring Trump down is the Russian connection. That is one act of perfidy that would reach the status of treason which the GOP could not tolerate - conspiring with that regime is the very antithesis of what America claims to stand for. The fear is that the GOP is in the position to control the extent of the Congress investigations and what comes out of it. Even more worrying is that the new Attorney General Jeff Sessons the doyen of the Trump campaign  has refused to recuse himself from any outcomes of investigations of the FBI.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Trump got all intellectual and quoted Thomas Jefferson castigating the media at his impromptu press conference. Like in previous circumstances the information dished out was a distortion of reality. Chris Wallace of Fox news argued that Trump maintaining that the media was the enemy of the American people had  “crossed the line”. He completed Jefferson’s assessment of the Press, “And if it were left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers or newspapers without a Government, I should not hesitate for a moment to choose the latter”

Jay H. Ell believes that the President should stop watching television and tweeting as his full time job while visiting Mar a Lago and campaigning for 2020 for a break.

Only two hundred and four weeks to go.

TRUMP: NIXON ON STEROIDS - RUSSIAGATE?

It is not an exaggeration to label the current crisis caused by Russian intervention in the 2016 Presidential election and the relationship of the Trump team to them as the greatest threat to American Democracy since Watergate. This circumstance has been accompanied by Trump’s attack on the independent Judiciary, bias against peoples of color and certain religions  and threats to the media adding to the belief that America’s traditional form of constitutional government is under siege.

The reported contacts during the election between Trump surrogates and Russian intelligence as well as the disgraced National Security Advisor Michael Flynn’s discussions with the Russian Ambassador on sanctions have been highlighted by reported leaks by the Washington Post and New York Times. In addition Trump has been outspoken supporter and admirer of Vladimir Putin and at least four of his campaign team had extensive connections with Russia. All this was accompanied by Russia’s ongoing attempts to back Trump’s candidature via hacking, leaking e mails to Wikileaks and fake news. 

The irresistible inference is that there may well have been collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians. There are repeated allusions to the 1970’s Watergate scandal which historians and commentators believe was a similar attack on the America value system. (Crisply, Watergate was an illegal attempt to support Nixon’s reelection by breaking into Democratic National Committee Headquarters with a subsequent cover up that further involved lies, deceptions and law breaking - sound familiar!).

THE ALLEGATIONS IN RUSSIAGATE

It is common knowledge that the Russians hacked the DNC and provided Wikileaks with material to discredit Hillary Clinton in an attempt to assist Donald Trump’s Presidential bid. That adds up to an illegal attempt to interfere with the American democratic electoral presidential process. They also provided fake news and other misinformation. All this by a foreign rogue power that is currently a strategic enemy magnifies the threat to the very basis of the Republic. 

The question is “What did Trump know about it and when did he know it?” Another more testy allegation is knocking around, “Was there any quid pro quo offered in return for this ‘help’?”

Russiagate has proceeded at a far greater pace than the Watergate scandal. There it took a long while to definitively state that the burglary and bugging of the Democratic Party Headquarters at the Watergate office complex was even connected to Nixon’s reelection. It took over a year before the first Nixon administrative officials were fired and to initiate a Senate Committee investigation. It was over three years after the bungled burglary that Nixon was forced to resign. Within one month of Trump’s Presidency Trump has already fired his Chief Security Advisor Michael Flynn and the Senate has already ordered an investigation into the Russian interference in the Presidential election. In Watergate there was an open inquiry that had total bipartisan support and wall to wall television coverage. Thus far the Republicans will only back Intelligence Committee enquiries that are held in private with the Republicans controlling what will be released.

CIRCUMSTANTIAL EVIDENCE: TRUMP AND HIS TEAM’S RUSSIAN CONNECTION

Trump:

From the word go Trump has evidenced an inexplicable admiration for  the Russian Premier Vladimir Putin. This almost worship has continued to this day. In a February interview with Fox’s Bill O’ Reilly, who was cuing him to lay off this indefensible position, he affirmed his esteem of the former KGB Officer. The Donald went as far as to say the Americans were no better than the Putin Russians who killed people. While Trump changed positions on most topics throughout the campaign he stuck to his guns on Putin. What has angered politicians, the intelligence and the military is that this support for this totalitarian warmonger is apparently at the expense of America’s traditional allies such as the NATO  Alliance.

According to a Forbes’s report in October 2016 Donald Trump had extensive business involvement with a Russian, Felix Sater. Trump subsequently lied that he was not familiar with him. The Forbes’s piece highlighted too a trio of Kazakh oligarchs who drove Trump deals. Now it has long been argued that Trump has extensive business interests in Russia and the belief is that only his tax returns would confirm or deny this allegation. Trump has flat out refused to release these after promising in the campaign that he eventually would. Trump has made numerous trips to Moscow, took his International Pageant show to that city and according to the Daily Kos has made numerous appearances on Russian media.

At kindest there is a big question mark as to Trump’s behavior in relation to a country that has demonstrated scant regard for international norms. He even denied, till the bitter end, repeated intelligence reports that Russia was responsible for interfering in the 2018 election.

Trump’s Russian Team

There is no question as to the close relationship four key members of the Trump campaign team and Russia and Jay H. Ell has a question about a fifth. Paul Manafort was brought in as Trump’s campaign manager in March 2016. He was reported to be advising and assisting the Russian land grab of Crimea being a paid operative in this regard. As all this became public knowledge and Manafort, who in addition, was said to be a lobbyist for foreign interests, finally resigned in August 2016. Carter Page was a foreign advisor to campaign Trump. He was a regular on Russian media and an advocate of dropping the sanctions on Russia. He stood to make a fortune in the event that the sanctions were eliminated. As his involvement became obvious he too disappeared of the scene about the same time as did Manafort. Michael Flynn who occupied the key position in the Administration as National Security Advisor worked on Russian TV and was seated next to Putin at a function. He gave paid talks criticizing US policy. On January 15, 2017 the Acting Attorney General Sally Yates informed the WhiteHouse that he had discussed the Russian sanctions, that Obama had just enforced, with the Russian Ambassador. She gave the POTUS an out distancing him from the crime scene, merely pointing out that because of Flynn’s discussions he may be subject to “blackmail”. 

Roger Stone, a former partner of Paul Manafort, is said to have connections with Julian Assange of Wikileaks, and who tweeted prophetically about the future release of the Clinton camp's Russian hacked e mails and the damage that they would wreak. He too was an advisor to the Trump campaign leaving about the time Manafort and Page left. 

Finally, Jay H. Ell cannot share the excitement of the appointment of Rex Tillerson, the former CEO of EXON, as Secretary of State. He too is a friend of Putin, has cut big oil deals with him that would reap great benefit after the removal of sanctions which he has spoken against. For his efforts in Russia he was awarded The Friend of Russia medal by Putin himself. Tillerson is regarded as one of the stabilizing figures in the Trump regime - G-d save us.

EVENTS THAT QUESTION TRUMP’S RELATIONSHIP TO RUSSIA

Just to look at two recent events which cause concern as to Trump’s judgement, veracity and his attitude to the current attention swirling around the Russian connection and Mike Flynn.

December 28, 2016: Obama announces sanctions on Russia 

December 29, 2016: Putin threatens retaliation and Flynn calls Russian Ambassador and discusses sanctions.

December 30, 2016: Putin announces he will not retaliate and POTUS elect Trump tweets that he knew Putin was smart.

January 15, 2017: Vice POTUS  Pence denies that Flynn discussed sanctions in his conversation with the Russian Ambassador.

January 26, 2017: Acting AG informs WhiteHouse that Flynn could be blackmailed as a result of sanctions content of conversation with Ambassador. Information not shared with Pence due to “attorney - client” privilege. 

January 28, 2017: Flynn sits in on Trump - Putin call.

February 9, 2017: News reports state that Flynn discussed sanctions. Pence finally informed.

February 13, 2017: Flynn “fired” according to Trump and “resigned” according to Conway.

February 14 and 15, 2017: Trump maintains that Flynn, the advisor he fired, is an excellent man hounded by the media and brought down by illegal criminal leaks. Trump stated that this was a media cover up for Hillary Clinton’s loss. The reason afforded for dismissal was because of his misleading of Pence not because he had done anything wrong. The same day Donald claimed, in the same breath, that the report that his operatives had been in contact with Russian intelligent agents was nonsense and that those that leaked the report were criminals.

Not reassuring behavior from the POTUS.

On the afternoon of the fourteenth of February Trump was hit with three investigations. The Government Ethics Committee recommended the WhiteHouse discipline Kellyanne Conway, the House Oversight Republican Chairman announced an investigation into the discussion of classified information in the open at Mar - a - Lago and the intensification of the investigation into the Russian connection was announced by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

WHAT NOW?

The Democrats and most of the media want independent open enquiries into the whole issue. The Republicans thus far are only agreeing to Intelligence Committee meetings. Trump and the Chairman of the House of Representatives Intelligence Committee believe that the central issue is the leaks to the Press. Trump forgets that he cheered on the leaks that the Russians were responsible for in the election - claiming how he loved Wikileaks who published the Russian hacked John Podesta, Hillary’s campaign manager’s, e mails. He even called on Russia to hack Clinton.

The situation is fluid however with Senators John McCain, Lindsay Graham, Rob Blunt, and Bob Corker weighing in heavily against the Administration on the controversy. There is thus an increase in pressure for an open investigation and if more revelations surface it might be hard to resist. Trump’s poll numbers are the worst for any post war President and some legislators have already been hammered at Town Hall meetings. 

The FBI and CIA are obviously continuing with their probes. Obvious too is that certain officials believed it was in the Country’s interest to leak the information. The question is that if they have indictments will the new Attorney General Jeff Sessons follow through with charges. He refused in his confirmation to recuse himself from any investigation. 

The similarities of Russiagate with Watergate are there for all to see. However, the involvement of a foreign power being the party illegally influencing the electoral outcome adds a more serious dimension to the scandal. The POTUS has made no attempt to distance himself from the foreign perpetrators and even more significantly those in his camp that were in contact with the Russians. 

One thing is for certain is that if the quid pro quo was to remove sanctions the Republicans have stated that if there is any Trump move in that direction they will legislatively enshrine them. With that in mind what will be the Russian response? Already Putin has fired off a missile which is in violation of a 1987 treaty and sent a spy ship near the coast of America. It remains to be seen how Trump will react.

The pessimistic view is that Trump is going to turn this into a witch hunt against the media with Jeff Sessons in the Department of Justice leading the charge. This would be a thinly veiled attack on the freedom of the press as well as cleaning house in the intelligence agencies of independent agents. The optimistic outlook is that the massive press corps investigating the saga is sure to come with more revelations and one way or another there has to be an independent enquiry that is sure to spell the end of this scary episode.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Nothing has changed since Jay H. Ell opined in a previous blog, “To a large extent the American Constitution and it’s way of life is under siege. Standing in the way of Trump totalitarianism is the opposition from Mayors and Governors, the citizenry, the media, the courts and a couple of Republican lawmakers”. 

One fact is for certain Bannon’s strategy to create chaos and thereby confuse the opposition has boomeranged back. The shambolic WhiteHouse with only a tiny number of appointments in place cannot cope with the stresses they have created. They are back in Court very soon as the original Federal District Judge in Washington has refused to postpone hearings on placing a permanent ban on Trump’s Travel Executive Order. The protests abound while Mayors offer sanctuary to undocumented workers. All is not lost as Trump is going to hold a ticketed rally in Florida this weekend.