THE TRUMP TRAIN SMASH CONTINUES

The week that followed a catastrophic opening weekend of the Trump Presidency gathered more tumult as it progressed. The Trump train was seemingly hellbent in destroying America’s hard earned international reputation as being the upholder of liberal values and as a sanctuary for the repressed and those fleeing for their lives. In addition Trump managed to be at odds with several of America’s traditional allies. To top it all one of The Donald’s ill thought out amateurishly conceived Executive Actions provoked outrage and mass protest in several cities. Like in all the POTUS’s crises he upped the ante by firing the Acting Attorney General and the Head of Immigration Control. (He is never wrong you know).

Trump appeared to be making no attempt to unite the country resulting in opposition against him  galvanizing. At present America’s liberal reputation is being kept afloat by its citizens flooding into the streets. Trump has presented the terrorists their biggest propaganda scoop - the final showdown between the believers and unbelievers has been declared by no lesser personage than the POTUS. 

TRUMP’S BAD WEEK IN THE REAL WORLD

On the international front nothing seemed to go right. Trump after trotting out his usual bullying statement that Mexico would pay for his ludicrous wall was told to take a running jump at himself by el Presidente. The latter informed The Donald he would not be coming to their planned meeting. This forced a hasty face saving telephone call where inter alia our savior promised not to mention Mexican payment for the wall again. Then at a Joint Press Conference with long time ally’s Prime Minister, United Kingdom’s, Teresa May the latter flatly disagreed with him on the lifting of sanctions on Russia. America’s other neighbor Canada felt comfortable enough to let Trump know that they would accept all those Muslims that he was about to chuck out. Then his controversial executive order received vocal opposition from the leadership of traditional allies including the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Norway. Of course there were the Muslim allies including the Gulf States and on and on who chimed in. Protests are growing in oversea nations and over a million have already signed a petition urging the UK Government to withdraw their invitation to the POTUS visit. To add to his discomfort his noble allies, the Russians, started up their war mongering activity in Ukraine again. Then he suddenly became coy about moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem explaining that there were two sides to the story.

An attack in the Yemen went awry with the WhiteHouse covering up the details. (Hint - blame it on Obama).

ROUTINE TRUMP DISASTERS

Before getting into the disaster de jour, the Muslim travel ban from seven countries, just a word on his top advisor Stephen Bannon calling The New York Times and telling them and the rest of the media to shut up. Then there was his public backdown on water boarding and other torture - not really a backdown just an acceptance that all the military personnel believe that it is unlawful as well as being unhelpful. Although he who knows better than the Generals, would still not get his way. His announcement as to who should make up the crucial National Security Council provoked disbelief. He excluded the Joint Chief of Staff and the Director of Intelligence and replaced them with his ideological guru, the self same Stephen Bannon who has no experience in security matters at all. The crackpot decision was criticized in military and intelligence quarters and evoked a comment from Obama’s outgoing National Security Advisor as being “stone cold crazy”. 

TRUMP’S REFUGEE AND TRAVEL BANS

Chaos ensued this weekend as Trump introduced two Executive Orders. Ostensibly he was following up on his populist campaign war cry, “Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown on Muslims entering the United States until our country’s representatives can figure what the hell is going on”. Only Trump, realizing that on its’s face that objective was unconstitutional, dressed up the orders to make them appear more in line with security objectives than religious exclusion. 

The most far reaching Trump order challenged the   American atonement for refusing to accept a boatload of refugees of German Jews, who subsequently succumbed in the holocaust. Trump’s ban on all refugees from anywhere for a hundred and twenty days, received very little attention. The reason for this was that his second order produced so much pandemonium that the former edict was ignored. Trump’s representatives have now an opportunity, as we speak, “to find out what the hell is going on”. 

What sparked off another round of country wide protests, which are beginning to become a way of American life, was Trump’s broad sweeping ban on any travel of anyone who was a citizen of seven Middle East Muslim countries. This ban included those with permanent residency of America as well as those with legitimate visas to enter America. Even those with dual citizenship - American as well as their passport of birth were impacted. The immediate enforcement of this created havoc at the airports in America and across the world as legitimate travelers were denied admission on to planes or detained at airports. Children were separated from parents and American residents were not allowed back into the country. Iraqi heroes who had helped Americans in their war against Saddam and ISIS, after almost decades of waiting and vetting, were detained as well.

The media once again focussed full time on yet another Trump made disaster. Following up on last weekend’s country wide protests, crowds gathered at every international airport in the country to stake their opposition to this inhumane, unAmerican and unconstitutional action by Trump. Urgent court hearings lead to some alleviation of the situation. The Government’s lawyers admitted that the order had not been thought through. Sixteen State’s attorneys declared the instruction unconstitutional as every religious group in the country registered their fury. Some Republicans and their supporters including the Koch Brothers added to the opprobrium. 

TRUMP’S ATTEMPTS AT DAMAGE CONTROL

Soon rationalizations, defenses, denials and the like started to dribble out of the WhiteHouse. Number one assertion was that this was not a Muslim ban but a security precaution. This cover was blown by no lesser Trump apologist than ex Mayor Rudy Giuliani who baldly stated that he had received a call from The Donald. The fearless leader had told him that he was ready to fulfill his promise on a Muslim ban and could he provide input. Just in case there was any doubt that this was  about Muslims Trump included in this order the provision that the Christians in these countries would be given preference as refugees when the ban is lifted. Then the Cato Institute, a Conservative think tank, indicated that the immigrants from the seven Muslim countries affected by the ban had not been responsible for one American death in fifty years as opposed to Saudi Arabians for example that had killed nearly three and a half thousand citizens. Cynics then commented that the only parameter separating those Muslim countries that had been named versus those that hadn’t was the presence of a Trump enterprise in their countries.

Then it was all Obama’s fault. Trump was just following up on Obama’s policies. A simple examination of the facts gives the lie to yet another Trump lie. The seven countries that Trump named were indeed the same that Obama removed from the visa waiver program in 2016. The latter program allowed visitors from certain countries to enter America for ninety days without a visa. Obama’s decision resulted in visitors from those nations having to apply for a visa. Bringing Obama into the equation resulted in Obama entering into it. The former POTUS attacked the edict claiming it was against American values. He also supported the protestors. What Trump doesn’t need now is a unifying figure like Obama whose approval rating is at over sixty percent, leading opposition against him. Trump by contrast has within eight days had his approval ratings, such as they were, tank.

Then that the whole thing was overblown became the mantra from Trump and his echo chamber. It wasn’t meant to impact on the green card holders who were residents. The fact that no one was informed about this, even the Homeland Security people let alone the officials at the airports was not his incompetence but rather not to give the heads up to the bad guys, who were presumably in procession of visas and residency permits ready to sneak in before such an order was enacted! Anyhow all was well at the airports they opined.

OPPOSITION GROWING AND ORGANIZING.

For starters the Attorney General was fired because she felt that Trump’s edict was unlawful and was not prepared to defend it. This arbitrary dismissal added fuel to the fire. There have been five Federal courts that have ruled against Trump on his Executive order. It appears that it will not stand legal scrutiny. Any rate there is a ton of litigation pending on this issue alone including one from the Attorney General in the State of Washington which would put the kibosh on the action across the country.

The legal challenges to Trump are growing but perhaps the greatest will be when he takes on the Mayors of America. Not surprisingly every major City and Town in America has a majority that is supportive of values of inclusion and non bigotry. Almost without exception the cities have declared themselves “sanctuary cities”. They have vowed to protect the so called “illegal immigrants” and not round them up for the Feds. Trump’s threat to the cities to withhold Federal funds if they defy him, again, is on shaky legal grounds. There are precedents against the right of the Federal government to enforce their will in such a situation. There are  States that have openly challenged Trump. Governor Brown from California, which has the sixth largest economy in the world, has already briefed Counsellor, Eric Holder who was Obama’s Attorney General, to take Trump on should the need arise.

The non stop protest movement is growing. There is also organization taking place to challenge the current political order. The interesting point to note is that the Trump supporters have not taken to the streets.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

All bets are off. This is a scary situation and this amateur operation which appears to be lead by self confessed Leninite Steve Bannon who believes in chaos, a new world order of populism, nationalism, being at war with Islam and a Russian alliance and who has no time for the rule of law. In a long ranging article in The Daily Beast his obsession with wars was detailed. Now he is chief advisor to the most powerful man on the planet. His voice on National Security is apparently more important than that of the Director of Intelligence and the head of all America’s armed forces.

To a large extent the American Constitution and it’s way of life is under siege. Standing in the way of Trump totalitarianism is the opposition from Mayors and Governors, the citizenry, the media, the courts and a couple of Republican lawmakers. 

THE WOBBLY TRUMP SHOW HITS THE ROAD

The POTUS inaugural weekend has come and gone amidst drama that had it been scripted it would have been laughed off as being off the wall. The ritual passing of power on the Mall, where Trump made no attempt to enjoin the many that hadn’t supported him, was not the most noteworthy event. What followed the next day in the same historical arena, in the shadow of the Capital, was the emergence of an unprecedented sized crowd of women protestors - a circumstance that was mimicked, simultaneously, in nearly a hundred towns in the United States. 

Trump then visited the CIA headquarters ostensibly to make peace with the agency having mercilessly attacked their findings that the Russians had hacked the election to his advantage. He falsely blamed his conflict with the CIA on the media using the occasion to declare that he was, “In a running war with the media and they were the most dishonest people”. He illustrated his point by spending most of his speech arguing that that they had deliberately fabricated the lower attendance at his induction. His visit was labelled a disgrace by the outgoing director of the CIA. His Press Secretary then hastily called a briefing which was characterized by the Press Core as a succession of blatant lies to back up The Donald’s claims that he had been sold short on the crowd estimation. 

Just in case you thought amateur night was over Kellyanne Conway, who is also up for the 2017 Goebel’s Prize, claimed that there were “alternate” facts about the crowd size at the inauguration. Then she argued, in the teeth of polls that reflect that seventy - four percent of Americans believe that Trump should reveal his taxes, that he needn’t fulfill his promise to release them as that was not what the people wanted.

Trump also signed a number of executive orders one of which supported the repeal of Obamacare without putting anything in its place. Others followed in the next week which were in sync with his campaign message to create American jobs.

DONALD ASKED NOT THAT HE BE CRITICIZED 

In his brief inauguration speech the Donald, true to form dispensed with no sophistication, and told it the way he told on the trail - America had gone to hell in a hand basket but, “believe me” he was going to set it straight again. His America was only vaguely recognizable to the group that had lost manufacturing or mining jobs and had changed sides to give him the Presidency. They were those who had worked in coal mines, in factories whose jobs had been automated or had been outsourced oversea. But for the rest of the population his America was unrecognizable as, unemployment was at record lows, public companies had seen their profits rise to the accompaniment of a soaring Obama stock market, inflation was non existent, interests rates were low, twenty million more had medical insurance, the LBGT group were gaining more and more equality, to list just some of what America appeared to be most of the electorate.

So while the speech was dark, in tune with the campaign dirge, it did temporarily dispense with the immigrant scapegoats. It resonated with the public perception as to how the fat cats of Washington were feathering their own beds at the expense of “We the people”.  Regardless of where the populace was in life there was a belief that their elected officials were blind to their needs and subservient to the greed and avarice of the one percenters. 

Making no sense was the fact that his cabinet picks were not in line with his populist message. To add to the POTUS confusion was rather than draining the swamp he was filling it with financiers - several from Goldman Sachs whom he had attacked daily on the campaign, other one percenters who wanted to eliminate Medicare and public education for example and some generals. 

THE REAL CROWDS WERE THE WOMEN PROTESTORS

The next day saw protest crowds which had been heralded as the Women’s March on Washington. The vast numbers in Washington were akin to those that The Donald had fantasized for himself. In fact Donald can claim one historical first - the largest protest against an elected President ever. The total participants of the over a hundred gatherings, which included those throughout  the world, from Zimbabwe to London, from Serbia to Iceland and from Melbourne to Tel Aviv, was close on three million. No one had expected the depth of the anger to the Trump Presidency as hundreds of thousands descended on Washington just a day too late to hear the message. The media, who had given the protest scant coverage, were taken back at the numbers. Trump snarkily queried as to where these ladies were in November and missed yet another opportunity to let this mostly women assembly know that he was their President too. But the extent and intensity of the antagonists emphasized the narrowness of the Trump victory making his insistence on just rah rahing to his base, that were numerically three million less than garnered by his opponent, incomprehensible.

TRUMP’S CENTRAL FOCUS IS WAR AGAINST THE MEDIA

For whatever reason the Trump team elected to make the issue of the weekend an attack on the media. Rather than celebrate the fact that he had, after all, won the presidency and had been given an opportunity to “Make America Great Again”, war was declared against the “dishonest” media. The issue de jour was that the media had misled the world as to the fact that The Donald’s “historical” inaugural  address had not been witnessed by the greatest audience ever, as Trump had predicted. 

What really upset the media was that at the first briefing called by Press Secretary Sean Spicer the latter angrily backed up what was accepted as the tissue of lies spewed by Trump on the size of the crowd. Insightful of the process and pressure on Spicer was Arie Fleischer, George Bush 43’s Press Secretary. He had the distinct impression that he had been instructed by Trump to parade out the garbage. Fleischer stated that a Press Secretary’s only currency was credibility and he now had his work cut out to gain trust. 

For whatever reason the media went ballistic over this tissue of lies on crowd size and the allegation that they had created the division between Trump and the CIA. You might have thought they were immune by now to eighteen months of lie after lie. Somehow a threshold had been passed as panel after panel sat and discussed the gravity of Presidential lying. He now could lie on anything including whether there had been hacks or not or what Kim Jung Un was saying or not saying were typical laments. There was resolve to stick to their ethical guns and report accurately the Presidency wherever that might take them.

It is an irony that without the media Trump wouldn’t have been President. They unashamedly covered every word he spouted for eighteen months. The other sixteen candidates for the Republican nomination were virtually starved of oxygen and then in the Presidential election they dutifully followed him around lapping up the ratings that his unconventional behavior generated. So they have a responsibility to set the record straight. At the end of the day the First Amendment will  protect them from Trump’s desire to legislate against them.

THE CIA VISIT

This unscripted appearance to the CIA where Trump waxed incoherently, in front of the wall honoring those operatives who had died for their country, was a disaster. There he played to the small crowd that obviously had preselected themselves as attendance on that Saturday afternoon was voluntary. Having compared the CIA assessments to that of Nazi Germany the agency needed to hear a lot more than his usual campaign conscious streaming of thought. The discussion devolved about his good self and how he had been victimized by the dishonest media. "His estimation of the crowd was a million to a million and a half" - and on and on. Outgoing CIA Head Brennan, who had served both Republican and Democratic Presidents, showed an unaccustomed lack of restraint in criticizing the POTUS.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Then he was conducting foreign affairs with American allies United Kingdom and Israel. The latter is going to turn out to be a big hassle as he is dealing with a leader whose ego is up there with Trump’s. Netanyahu is not really interested in the POTUS’s sop to create a Jerusalem Embassy he wants the Iran deal reversed. Its just not going to happen and Trump, regardless of his meaningless promises is not going to deliver even if he could. His number one ally in the world Russia has indicated that Iran is their partner and Trump has far to much invested in that liaison to fight Comrade Putin on this issue. The rationalization, will be is that Iran is needed to wipe ISIS out.

In case G-d forbid one area would not be tainted by insanity The Donald once again put his foot in his mouth. He opined that the winner was entitled to the spoils of war and maybe there would still be an opportunity to go and claim the Iraqui oil. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

* Nobody knows where this is all going. There are of course islands of normality where, for example, he meets with the captains of industry and promises to promote their American operations. Even that doesn’t create too much excitement because most of these companies are multinationals and don’t need their foreign operations taxed to oblivion. These islands are short lived as next on the agenda he is arguing patently ridiculously to the leaders of both parties that he would have won the popular vote had not five million illegals voted for Hillary. 

* As far as Jay H. Ell is concerned he seriously wonders how this dysfunction can continue for four years. However like everyone else his predictions on Trump have been way off the mark so stick around and watch this space. 

* There are movements growing to oppose him, some of them offshoots from the Womens’ Marches. There is also serious litigation under the emoluments provision in the Constitution. There has to be an extensive infrastructure in the social world that has vowed to organize and continue the struggle. Evidence of this grass roots opposition is the fact that three million people just don’t pitch up, in concert, without extensive preperation. Whether this is all translated into political change remains the question. Both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are two recognized leaders who could channel this into the ballot box and were in evidence on the day. Whichever way you look at it the Women’s March movement is the story of the Trump Administration thus far. 

CAN TRUMP’S REVOLUTION SUCCEED?

The surprise POTUS election of Donald Trump is indicative of a revolt on the inequity of wealth distribution, coupled with xenophobia amongst certain sections of the electorate. However, the agenda of the majority Republican Legislatures differs in many aspects from the populist Trump campaign swagger and it remains to be seen whether The Donald will be able to deliver. While the chasms in the Republican Party have been papered over in the post election euphoria, there is no evidence that the long standing differences between their factions have been bridged. 

THE REVOLUTION OF THE UNDERDOG

It should not be difficult to recognize revolution when one is slap bang right in the middle of one. The current political convulsion, in what the sixties economist Lady Barbara Ward Jackson called the "North Atlantics",is just that. While blood is not flowing in the streets and armies are all safely in their barracks, conventional politics as we all understand them to be has been turned upside down. Whether this cataclysmic event will be a passing phenomenon like the Arab Spring or result in paradigm changes in government is yet to be seen. 

Like all transformations it doesn't take a majority of the population to effect the shift, just a key group within society that successfully agitates and voila!  Like in all revolutions the actions taken by the frustrated aggrieved may be irrational and in the end will not redress their perceived injustices. 

Currently sweeping through Europe and North America is a concerted revolt against what has been labelled the one percent who have garnered or plundered the riches that globalization has wrought. The belief of the agitators is the this group is aided and abetted by government who represent their and not the electorate’s interests.

THE ONE PERCENTERS

Those who control companies and their and everyone else's wages earn obscene sums of money - some 300 times the amount of the median wage of their employees. They  have achieved this disproportionate share of the gains at the expense of the ninety-nine percent who in the process have either lost their jobs, are earning less or have had stagnant wages throughout. To add salt to the wounds the one percenters as represented by the bankers and financiers and the like have been responsible for devastating losses of the plebs as witnessed by the housing crisis in the USA. The perpetrators for the large part have got off scot free and even been made whole by the powers that be. (It is irrelevant that some of the governmental actions avoided even more pain of the workers).

THE LEADERS OF THE REVOLUTION

In the normal cause of events in modern democracies the politicians respond to the needs of their electorate. The reality is that the gap of individual countries' societal needs and the elected policymakers has widened to such an extent that there is now open revolt at the ballot box. The two starkest examples resulted in Britain exiting the European Union and in the United States the election of Donald Trump.

All these insurrections require charismatic leaders. While Trump sees this as a worldwide movement of which is the natural leader he fails to recognize that the rhetoric of protagonists vary markedly. For example, several of the European parties, in seeking the scapegoat to blame for the mess, because there has to be one for the movement to offer a solution, have returned to the time honored traditional pariahs  - the Jews as well as the immigrants. Trump has rather concentrated on the immigrants and Muslims even though the anti semites flocked to him. All the "revolutionaries" including  Trump are the champions of the "disenfranchised" workers. 

 THE RESPONSE TO AMERICAN DISCONTENT

Now in America there have been more than rumblings against the status quo as represented by the established political parties. Eight years ago the Tea Party was formed whose philosophy has spit the Republican Party. The Democrats as their Presidential pick opted for change candidate Obama over Hillary in 2008.  So the Democratic Party have not escaped this upheaval unscathed but their Establishment has been more adept in keeping in touch with these changes and that is why the Party Establishment’s candidate Clinton ultimately got the nod. 

In the 2016 Presidential election of the three candidates that had a major following, Trump and  Sanders were openly anti establishment. Hillary the only traditional candidate also made major adaptations to adapt to the fury of sections of the electorate. All three for example, against bipartisan political wisdom, went against the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement as the perception was that this trade pact would result on job loss. 

Trump, in spite of disasters that would normally sink a political campaign convinced vital sections of the electorate that he would right all wrongs. The charismatic icon and master salesman produced a number of disconnected populist positions that did enough to switch key voters in the traditionally mining and industrialized Mid West that has been hardest hit by globalization, automation and climate change. It is interesting to note that both he and Sanders the "revolutionary" candidates did not form new parties but rather utilized the bizarre rules in American politics whereby anyone can run for a Party Presidential nomination regardless of whether they adhere to current Party policy.

(Clinton was axed as she was successfully smeared as being the epitome of the accursed Establishment, first by Bernie Sanders and then Donald Trump. Ironically as a seasoned politician and representative of the Democratic Party she would have been most likely to be able to effect change).

And therein lies the rub as the  Republican Legislative majorities are hardly ad idem with their new leader. Leaving aside the fact that Trump has disappointed all those that hoped that he would magically metamorphasize from a paranoid, infantile, narcissistic, xenophobic, megalomaniacal, bullying, tweeter into a Presidential leader, can he effect his promises to the electorate who surprisingly delivered him the WhiteHouse? 

TRUMP'S PROMISES VERSUS GOP DOCTRINE.

As Jay H. Ell has blogged both Republican factions are agreed about axing Obamacare. However, Trump, whose opposition is mainly polemical wants to retain all its key features. He also is in favor of maintaining Social Security and Medicare which are key features of Speaker Ryan's chopping block. Trump wants to spend a trillion dollars on infrastructure - a Democratic priority. This with Social Security and Medicare continuation and axing Obamacare will increase the deficit by trillions. Now instead of increasing taxation to pay for these efforts, both Trump and the GOP legislative leadership are agreed that both personal and corporate taxes must be decreased. This will increase the deficit through the roof. This not even to mention the cost of “that beautiful wall”. Trump’s belief is that the whole shortfall will be dramatically increased by the economy stimulation. The GOP Establishment would rather not take such a big chance and dispense with the costly medical goodies and other expenditures.

Then Trump’s isolationist policies on trade is against Republican doctrine not to mention his dictating to companies, the engine of American prosperity, as to what they should or should not do. Trump’s threat to take on the Drug Companies and insist on bulk buying for Medicare and Medicaid is bound to meet massive resistance from the Party faithful who still insist in the teeth of rising Medical costs that the free market will sort it all out. 

Then Trump’s obsession with Putin and Russia does not sit well with Congress and even his Cabinet nominees……… 

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

So all bets are off with regard as to what is really going to come out of the Trump revolution because the Republican Party have yet to sign on. If anything if the Dems get working they can reclaim the populist agenda as they have the votes to deliver it without  the albatrosses of a bizarre foreign policy and xenophobic insanity. 

Of course all this can change starting with the inauguration speech!

OBAMACARE AMIDST TRUMP’S CHAOS

The number one priority of the Republican Congressional caucus is to axe Obamacare. Regardless of the fact that the GOP haven’t got their act together on health care, they are just carrying on with their policy of the past eight years - oppose everything Obama. Within four years of Obamacare introduction they had moved no less than fifty- four times for its repeal. Juxtaposed with this obsession is the fact that Obamacare, for all its deficiencies, has been around almost seven years and has provided up to 30 million uninsured Americans health care. The number of citizens signing up for 2017, with the sword of Damocles hanging over the Affordable Health Care Act, (ACA aka Obamacare), was nearly seven million. All this going on while the Donald marches to his own drummer. 

EVERYONE WHO SHOULD BE THERE IS THERE

The country is prepared for a gigantic struggle as both sides gird themselves for a long drawn out battle. President Obama has taken the unprecedented step of physically going up to Congress to rally the Minority Caucuses to fight the repeal. Simultaneously Vice President elect Mike Spence is up on Capital Hill to keep the unruly House of Representatives in line. It is not so surprising that he needs to get the line straight even on Obamacare. In case one had forgotten the Republican House of Representatives are deeply split and on day one the rebels were forced to back down on their desire to rid themselves of the Ethics Oversight Committee by no lesser personage than the great POTUS elect Donald J. Trump - by tweet of course. Now there’s irony for you!

To get back to Obamacare, with all its problems, many of those who voted for Trump are those that are benefiting from it. So if Trump is true to his populist stance are we on the cusp of a major split between Trump and his Legislative Branch?. What is the replacement? Trump has none and neither has GOP Speaker Ryan nor Senate Majority leader McConnell. So far it appears that it boils down to telling patients to fend for themselves as this is costing too much and the monopolistic market place will sort it out for them. The health care industry have a ton of money riding on keeping the gravy train going so they will lobby to see it that Obamacare in one way or another continues. 

ALL GOP CONSTITUENCIES AGREE ON AXING OBAMACARE BUT THEN WHAT?

Now one of the items where all the GOP legislators and the POTUS agendas ostensibly agree on is the repeal and replacement of Obamacare. Ryan, McConnell and Trump were ad idem on this agenda. They are all strong on the repeal part and even after seven years of its existence very weak on its replacement. One of the problems is that the populist Trump is in favor of all the key provisions of the ACA. These include not excluding anyone from insurance on the basis of “previous conditions”, including all children on insurance up till the age of twenty - six, not setting a life long limit for benefits and covering everyone with health care. In addition Trump was against removing Medicare and Social Security which are on the block in the Ryan Republican budget plan together with their putting Obamacare to rest. For Trump opposing Obamacare was just one of his rah rah lines together with the building of THAT BEAUTIFUL wall. However, he has forced himself into a corner so Obamacare will have to go.

THE HEALTH CARE MESS

Now Health Care in America is in the most imaginable mess. The Health Care/Industrial complex has taken over from the Military/Industrial complex as the number one economic powerhouse in America. One in every six dollars, (sixteen percent of GDP), spent in America is on health, or should Jay H. Ell say, sickness care. The number one reason for bankruptcy in the USA is failure to pay health care bills. There are three thousand health care lobbyists in Washington by far the most for any government department. There are thus six lobbyists for each member of Congress on Health matters. So whether Obamacare comes or goes cost is out of control and there is a powerful interest group that want to keep it that way. 

Trump by interfering inherits the mess and takes onus of it. He said he was going to fix it and he can’t. 

AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION

The conservative American Medical Association has taken a determined stand on the matter. In a statement their CEO, Dr. Madura, has urged Congress to take steps not to allow the gains in patient coverage afforded by the ACA to be lost. He urged the GOP to present their replacement policies in reasonable detail. A skeptical Dr. Madura maintains that once the Republicans have produced their plan citizens will be able to compare this with the current ACA and presumably choose! He continues that the AMA would welcome a policy to make plans more affordable, provide greater coverage and enroll even more uninsured. While offering to work with the Administration the AMA have unequivocally backed the principles in Obamacare and are agitating for its improvement.

The AMA is an extremely well funded and a very influential player in this scenario. In fact they were largely responsible for blocking Hillary Clinton’s health care reform efforts in 1992. Together with the health care complex they are going to fight every attempt by the Republicans to cost cut.

THE CONTEXT -, MINORITY RULE AND THE MILLION POUND RUSSIAN BEAR IN THE ROOM.

In addition to the health care mess and all the influential side players, it should not be forgotten that this battle is taking place in an environment where the Administration and Legislature have not the backing of the majority of Americans. Three million more voters voted for Clinton and there was well over a million more Democrats that voted for the legislature. Only the peculiarities of the electoral college and the Republican gerrymandering of the constituencies allowed the Presidency and the Legislature to be in Trump and GOP hands. The reaction to the axing of the ACA could be sharp especially if nothing is put in its place. The protest meetings are already in the wings and petitions are floating across cyberspace. In addition if Trump goes the whole way with the GOP Congress and doesn’t stick to his populist stance on this issue he may well start to unravel following his inauguration.

By way of the deafening background music the split between Trump and the GOP legislature on the Russian hacking is vocal, total and unambiguous. Speaker Ryan expressed the hope that Trump will see reason after his intelligence briefing and McConnell has given up on arguing. Trump has denigrated and smeared the intelligence community in favor of his newest best friend Putin, whom his GOP Legislature regard as a thug and a murderer. The POTUS elect has not a majority in the Senate on this issue, several Republicans including McCain, Graham, Sasse, Sullivan and Rubio have declared themselves categorically against Trump’s mother Russia. Unlike Obamacare there is no wiggle room on this issue. Supporting and quoting Julius Assange who has been called a cyber terrorist by GOP members has to be the last straw.

Maybe all this is why they are going ahead on repealing Obamacare - it is the only issue they all agree on. They will play it by ear thereafter. Maybe just repeal it for show and leave all the provisions intact. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY 

* Where this is all going nobody knows but America is in for one long tweet. 

* Who knows when Trump fatigue will finally set in?

* Jay H. Ell wonders when the GOP deprive thirty million Americans from health care whether they will believe that they, after eight years, finally have done something.

* Trump never backs down, well hardly ever, so what is he going to do with Putin and Russia as his position grows more and more insane? Watch this space. 

* At least the stock market is going up on all those positive financial promises such as lower taxes and no regulations so that the company profits will grow even if they do nothing more.

* Can’t wait to hear the inaugural it just has to be a doosie. Do you think he will lead the crowd in "lock her up"?

* If it wasn’t so serious it would be funny……