From the get go Israel’s Prime Minister, Bibi Netanyahu, was over the moon at Donald Trump’s unexpected Presidential victory. He could barely contain himself when he confided to “Sixty Minutes” that he knew that Trump felt warmly towards Israel. As the weeks have progressed, on its face, the Holy Land's situation has only gottten better. Netanyahu has maintained that the scenario lends itself to “historic changes”. Gone will be the irritating pressures on settlement expansion that were a constant source of friction with the Obama administration.
From Jerusalem’s point of view there have been assurances that the US Embassy will move to Jerusalem and even the suggestion that America may well back the annexation of the Golan Heights, Then there is the unqualified backing of Israel in its ongoing war with Palestine. No more angst as to whether the American administration might not be fully behind Israel at the Security Council. To make matters even more rosy Trump has the same feelings about Iran and the deal as the Israeli leader and has vowed to undo it. So what can go wrong?
Jay H.Ell, however, believes that there are many contradictions in the changing stances that have flowed from Trump’s stream of consciousness that might hinder the Holy Land’s nirvana.
TRUMP’S ELECTION PROMISES CAN BE UNRELIABLE
At the outset if the news hasn’t hit the Jewish State yet, Presidential Advisor, Kellyanne Conway, the chief interpreter of what Trump really means, has warned that what Trump says is not necessarily what he means. Pillars of his winning campaign manifesto, such as that beautiful wall that Mexico was going to pay for and the deportation of eleven million Hispanics are already lying in the dustbin of history. Retractions of his Presidential winning rhetoric are daily occurrences, the latest being his oft repeated line, “I am going to drain the swamp”. According to one of his chief campaign surrogates, Newt Gingrich, he has discarded it because he is now in the real world of Washington politics. Gingrich maintained, “He now says it was cute, but he doesn’t want to use it anymore”.
However, for argument sake let us accept that Israel is very near and dear to his heart. As his American Jewish supporters keep reminding, “He has after all got Jewish grandchildren”. His professed commitment to the tiny Middle East Jewish nation state may just be the real deal. If that is the case what can be the problems?
TRUMP UNAMBIGUOUS ABOUT PUTIN AND WORLD RIGHT WING MOVEMENT
There are foreign policy positions that Trump has been equally totally unambiguous, consistent and transparent about throughout the campaign that may come into conflict with his Israeli position. He is totally committed to Putin and Putin’s mother Russia. In addition,The Donald has gone to lengths to identify with the right wing populism that is sweeping across Europe and Scandinavia. To further consecrate their marriage made in heaven, he and Putin are ad idem in support of the new worldwide nationalistic xenophobic development. Russia, in fact, convened a world wide right wing conference in Saint Petersburg last year. Trump, in an interview to the extreme right wing internet newspaper Breitbart News, where his own Stephen Bannon was editor prior to becoming Trump’s right hand man, proclaimed that he was now the leader of this worldwide populist movement. All of these new groupings have as their centerpiece policy, opposition to Immigration, specifically that from Muslim countries.
Stephen Bannon is Trump’s chief advisor and Senior Counsellor. For argument sake let us accept that he is not an anti semite even though he has a large anti semitic following. However, he is heavily into the agenda of Europe’s far right having, for example, referred to the French National Front politician Marian Marchel - Le Pen as “the new rising star”. Trump’s Security Advisor, Michael Flynn is only second in influence to Bannon in the hierarchy. While he also mouths undying support for the Jewish State, he met the leader of the Austrian Freedom Party which was founded by self confessed neo Nazis. Strache gave the Austrian establishment a shock by gaining the most votes in the first round in the Presidential election. He was beaten in the run off. Strache has signed a formal pact with Russia. Trump himself is very close to Nigel Farage the mastermind behind the British Brexit vote which was considered to be the United Kingdom manifestation of the worldwide right wing populist wave. Farage is an advisor to Trump and the President elect went as far as to suggest to the British Administration that they appoint him as Ambassador to the UK. They declined this interference in their domestic affairs.
So up to time of going into print Trump and his team, allied with Putin, are ready to endorse, ally and lead the new emerging populist right wing European movement.
TRUMP’S RIGHTWING ALLIANCE HAS ALREADY CONFLICTED WITH ISRAELI POLICY.
It is thus not unreasonable to conclude that Trump is in an unholy alliance with Putin to create a new worldwide right wing alliance which Trump hopes to lead. Now most of these European Right Wing populist movements couple their anti Muslim stance with anti semitism and already one such instance has stood in the way of a meeting between Israel and a highly placed member of the Trump transition team. The Times of Israel reported that a meeting had been arranged between Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Tzipi Hotovely, and a group of international lawmakers. When Hotovely learned that the anti semitic Swedish member of the European Parliament, Kristina Winberg, was part of the deputation, she refused to allow her to the briefing. Whereupon the whole group, including Becky Norton Dunlop, Deputy to the Senior Advisor to the Trump transition, team cancelled the meeting in protest.
It is scary that Ms Norton stuck to her alliance with Ms. Winberg at the expense of Trump’s number one ally. It is impossible that this issue and others similar and even more significant will not arise again and again. The European groups are in several instances overtly anti semitic and are sickening reminders of holocaust Europe.
Trump has not thought through the implications of several of his other policy stances that impact Israel.
IRAN, TRUMP AND PUTIN
Trump blazed away that the Iranian accord was the worst deal imaginable and told AIPAC, the influential Israel lobby group, “My number one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran… this deal is catastrophic for America, for Israel and for the whole of the Middle East….we’ve rewarded the world’s leading state sponsor of terror with a $150 billion and we received absolutely nothing in return…believe me. Oh believe me….” The Donald then spent a large part of his speech outlining the evils of Iran and what he was going to do about it.
There are very few American politicians including antagonists to the Iran Pact that believe that Trump will carry out his “number one priority”. In addition the EU is shouting the odds warning against tampering with the arrangement. Then his newest best friend, Vladimir V. Putin is joined at the hip with Iran. Russia and Iran are solely responsible for propping up Assad and for the deplorable human tragedy that Syria has degenerated into. Putin wants Iran in a new Euroasian and Russian trading alliance. He refers to Iran as “Russia’s long time partner”.
The Russian dictator left no doubt as to where he stood on the Iranian nuclear deal of which he was a co signatory. “We believe that bilateral relations will benefit from the reduction of tensions around Iran following the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear program.” Putin has loaned Iran $2.5 billion for infrastructure improvement. Russia and Iran are involved in extensive cooperation and deals. So there is no way that Putin is going to go along with weakening his most powerful ally in his ambition to become a real contender on the world stage.
As far as Jay H. Ell is concerned it is just a question of how Trump rationalizes his disengagement from his promise to AIPAC and his “number one priority”.
TRUMP’S ISRAELI AMBASSADOR
Israel needs Trump’s Ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, like a hole in the head. He is right of Ghengis Khan and Netanyahu does not need his right wing to get anymore encouragement, ostensibly from someone representing the policy of Israel’s most powerful ally and patron. Friedman, already a player in Israeli politics, has served notice that he is going to be active in the day to day Israeli controversies. More important to Netanyahu is that Friedman has declared war on the majority of American jews. He has smeared the liberal group, most of whom voted for Hillary, as worse than the despised jewish Nazi colloborators, the kapos, thereby unleashing a storm. He has labelled Obama an antisemite. If Trump is really serious about a two state solution then he can kiss it good bye with Friedman because he is obviously dead against it and he hardly engenders confidence in the “Palestinian other side”.
So Friedman, if his nomination holds, could land Netanyahu in unenviable dilemmas. He is slap bang on the wrong side of an American Jewish split as seventy five percent of them voted for Hillary. Bennett and Lieberman just to mention a few of the right wing Knesset members will have more grease to their elbow with Friedman sounding off and Netanyahu’s coalition is very brittle to say the least. Maybe Bibi can whisper in Sheldon Adelson’s ear to tell Trump to find someone less disruptive to his task of governing Israel.
ALL MUSLIMS ARE NOT THE SAME
Trump’s position that regards Muslims as a homogenous entity is unbelievably naive. He, apparently, has no idea of the gross cleavages, religious and political, that exist amongst the over one billion Muslims. He regards them all, including those residing in America, as potential terrorists. Nor does he have a clue as to the way the 132 Muslim nations line up. Netanyahu is heavily in with the Sunni Arab Gulf bloc in addition to Egypt and Jordan. Then countries in the Pacific rim and in Africa with Muslim populations are moving closer and closer to the Israeli nation. Overtures have been muted for diplomatic relations with the country with the biggest Muslim population in the world, Indonesia. India, which has the second most Muslims in a nation, is improving its relations with Israel daily. Then Netanyahu’s much publicized visits to oil rich Muslim central Asia countries Azerbaijan and Kazakstan have opened up yet another vista of Muslim cooperation. So to say the least Bibi's opinion of the Muslim community is much more nuanced.
All this contrasts with Trump’s populist racist grandstanding against Muslims. Jerusalem will have to keep its distance to hang on to its hard earned diplomatic successes which are obviously based on trust built over many years. The only Muslim entity to welcome the blue collar billionaire’s bombast is ISIS who is using the Trumpian outbursts as a recruiting tool. Their giddiest dream is that Trump by declaring war on all the Muslims will drive them into the ISIS camp. To coin a phrase, “What will they have to lose”?
AT THE END OF THE DAY…
Clumsy Trump may not turn out to be the political windfall some of the Israelis believe that he will be. Israel has long maintained that it is the pillar of democracy, free speech, judicial independence and tolerance in the Middle East. They should not for a moment desert those values for the questionable short term gain of a Trump Presidency.
Israel should get ready for the Trump roller coaster ride that the Americans have buttoned down for.
Trump has not as yet indicated how he is going to cope with his conflicting foreign policy positions.
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