The Party Conventions have concluded to a background of a revolution of societal attitudes and where already one major Party has almost completely changed its identity. This makes it increasingly difficult to predict the outcome in a fluid and evolving scenario. While attempting to adjust the analysis to meet these circumstances, for the large part, the commentary still is framed in terms of the existing political paradigm.
THE CONVENTION GESTALT
It was in stark contrast to Trump’s dark, chaotic Convention, with its boring procession of nonentities, that Clinton’s rousing, optimistic and professionally managed spectacle, with its star studded cast of politicians and entertainers, witnessed her shattering the glass ceiling. While Trump cheerfully midwifed even greater cleavages in the Republican Party in Cleveland simultaneously shutting the dissenters up, Clinton gave the Berners one whole day to let off steam and never stopped acknowledging the contribution of Sanders. The DNC emerged as unified as could be reasonably expected while the Republican Party were split into at least three factions - Trump, Kasich, (who was hosting events in the key swing state, Ohio, in which he is the Governor) and of course Cruz.
The metaphor for the tale of the two conventions was told by the balloons that traditionally joyfully come tumbling down signaling the end of a convention and the beginning of the campaign. In Cleveland the Republican Presidential and Vice Presidential party stood awkwardly awaiting their descent as some or other malfunction was addressed. In Philadelphia they came cascading down on cue in the colors of red, white and blue interspersed with giant blue spheres that were festooned with stars. The latter to chants of patriotic “USA USA” as opposed to lynch mob “Lock her up” incantations that dominated the Republic Party’s convention.
THE KEY SPEAKERS
Clinton’s embarrassment of riches, ranging from Sanders to the Obamas and Biden, with her husband in-between, took the pressure of her dominating the media scene but it was the bit players that too played a crucial role. The significance of this roster will be realized over the next 100 days on the campaign trail. Obama’s approval rate is at its highest and there is no - one, but no-one, better than him on the stump. Michelle Obama has a nearly eighty percent approval rating and has her own constituencies. Husband Bill has the unique skill of reframing events and simplifying complex issues giving him the ability to connect with audiences as no - one else can. Hillary thus is transformed from an Establishment hack to a life long "change - maker". Biden is most popular in the Rust Belt States with blue collared workers where Trump hopes to make his breakthrough. Elizabeth Warren and possibly Bernie himself will look after the DNC revolutionaries while Kaine will connect in fluent Spanish with the Hispanics in case the latter need any encouragement to vote against Trump.
But back to some of the bit players.
THE DNC BENCH - Mr. KHIZR KHAN
Among the few dozen warm up acts at the Convention were a few that will have a lasting impact on this race. Besides electrifying the stadium they had to have influenced the vast home audience. First and foremost was the tribute by Mr. Khizr Khan to his brave deceased son, an American hero, who died defending his charge in Iraq. (The principle reason for the impact of Mr. Khan’s intervention is that the Republican candidate Donald Trump chose, to the embarrassment of the old Republican Party members, to attack him after the convention - The gift to the Democrats that keeps on giving..). Mr. Khan, his wife by his side, by eloquently and poignantly juxtaposing his son’s bravery and patriotism and the family’s sacrifice for America with Trump’s anti - Muslim barrage stirred up the crowd and beyond. He argued that had it been up to Mr. Trump his son would never been able to emigrate to America - “.… he wants to build walls and ban us from this country..”. The most dramatic moment of the speech came when the bereaved father, capitalizing on the fact that Trump’s ignorance of the contents of the American Constitution had already been on display, exclaimed, “..have you even read the Constitution…”, Then theatrically pulling a miniature Constitution out of his inside pocket, he dramatically offered to lend Trump his copy.
As is Trump’s modus operandi it didn’t take long for him to launch the vitriol. In an interview with George Stephanopoulos he maintained that he would have liked to have seen Khan’s wife say something. He added that Mr. Khan’s cry that he,Trump, had "sacrificed nothing and no -one" was his cue for him to inappropriately spout off his resume stating that, “he worked very very hard and created tens of thousands of jobs”. He claimed too that he had made a lot of sacrifices. Then the saga went on and on.
Trump claimed, inter alia, that he had been attacked viciously. He asked whether there was an awareness of 9/11 and Islamic terrorism. He issued a statement which finally acknowledged Captain Khan as a hero, assailed Mr. Khan for maintaining that he had not read the constitution and then blamed Hillary Clinton for destabilizing the Middle East, Benghazi and the rest. The Khan pater familias had the final word arguing that Trump had no moral compass, empathy and was unfit to be President. To Trump’s taunt that Mrs Ghazal Khan had nothing to say, she gave him chapter and verse in an op - ed piece in the Washington Post. Her opening statement must have wrankled, “Without saying a thing all the world felt my pain.”
After all this the Republican Party leaders finally weighed in - Kasich, Ryan and McConnell, all at least saying something. The cause celebre lasting well into the next week past the Convention.
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG
Michael Bloomberg, three time mayor of New York, delivered a devastating attack on Trump which had the potential to have major political consequences. Bloomberg, a fellow New Yorker, is an even more successful businessman than The Donald and is considered the spokesperson of the Independents. In this regard his credentials are impeccable. He contemplated a run at the Oval Office this time round but deferred. He declared Trump to be “A dangerous demagogue who must be stopped”. He savaged The Donald’s business career and responded to Trump’s claim that he would run the government like he ran his business by stating, “God help us”. He said he recognized a con when he saw one. Trump was risky, reckless and radical.
He gave a credible heave to Hillary’s competence as he had worked with her on 9/11 and other New York projects when she was a Senator. Although she had her failings she was the candidate for the job. “Elect someone sane and competent with international experience” he exhorted the delegates. As might have been expected Bloomberg was on the receiving end of Trump’s bile. The latter had already threatened that he was so angry at some of the speakers at the Conference that he would like to hit them so hard that their heads would spin. He called Bloomberg “little” prophesying that he wouldn’t get 10% of the vote if he ran again for Mayor.
Bloomberg together with the “Republicans for Hillary” speakers had the potential of going a long way to persuading the Republicans, orphaned with the death of their party, to pull the lever for Clinton. Obama had already laid the seeds. While the Khan uproar almost monopolized the media post convention Bloomberg and the "Republicans for Hillary" may well be the most substantial outcome of the gathering.
RETIRED GENERAL JOHN ALLEN
As no one from the armed forces or security operations has endorsed Trump, General Allen’s forceful support of Clinton assumes a disproportionate significance as Trump continues to make National Security a key issue in his platform. Allen was a former Deputy Commander of US Central Command. He was accompanied on the stage by several military veterans and in the beginning of his address maintained that he, “Was joined by his fellow Generals and Admirals”. He contended that with Hillary at the helm, “International relations would not be reduced to business transactions nor would the military be instruments of torture, engage in murder and carry out other illegal activities”. He exclaimed that the stakes were enormous and Hillary Clinton could be trusted with the task and to keep the nation together.
Trump’s follow up was that Allen had made a poor job of fighting ISIS resulting in Allen responding that a Trump Presidency would cause a civil military crisis, “The likes of which we have not seen”. This statement was a fleshing out of the consequences of Trump’s oft repeated illegal injunctions that he would instruct the military to carry out.
REVEREND WILLIAM BARBER - HEAD OF THE NAACP
In rhetoric and delivery similar to that of Martin Luther King, Reverend Barber galvanized the riveted delegates with a sweeping overview of the issues facing the nation which he framed morally rather than politically. He touched on the concerns which he felt were at the heart of America’s democracy. These included voting rights, minimum wage, health care, public education, taxes and wealth distribution immigrant and LGBT rights. What might read like a laundry list of all the ills and societal challenges was delivered with a passion, eloquence and honesty that had to have resonated beyond the walls of the stadium. Apparently, according to The Nation, he rarely endorses candidates so his statement that, “… but when I hear Hillary’s voice and positions, I hear and I know she is working to embrace our deepest moral values and we should embrace her”. Used judiciously he would inspire and add strength to the Clinton bench.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
The impact of the Convention, if any, is yet to be seen. It achieved all its objectives both in substance and style in the hall and for the electorate transfixed to the media covering it all. Major issues such as guns and climate control were also featured. Families and representatives of victims as well as the police were all given a chance to air their pain and views in a manner that was persuasive that this was not a choice between supporting the police or Black Lifes Matter, but rather a problem that needed to be resolved with communication, empathy and good will. The immediate knee jerk responses of Trump could not have helped him and had to have reinforced the Clinton campaign message that he has not the temperament to be President. Her observation that he looses his cool at the slightest provocation making it dangerous to entrust him with nuclear weapons was bolstered by The Donald's intemperate responses and has to be considered another plus in the outcome for the Democrats.
The thousand pound gorilla in the room was the angry electorate which was reorganizing itself into new alliances, where the new Republicans were laying claim to the blue collar Union workers and are toting an isolationist nationalist policy and the Democrats are a coaliton of all but with an increasing attraction to surburban Republicans and a commitment to inclusiveness at home and abroad. So who can accurately forecast the outcome?
Finally, what is going to be the overriding factor in this election - fear or hope, walls or bridges, togetherness or divisiveness, or isolationism or American involvement in the world honoring its international obligations and treaties? The next 100 days will tell. The irrestible conclusion is that it will be Hillary, the demographics make it so hard for Trump to turn back the clock to when America was ostensibly great and white. Yet no pundit has got it right yet and therein lies the uncertainty.
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