UK’S BREXIT AND USA’S ELECTION

So it really happened. A very divided United Kingdom divided from the European Union,(EU). The decision is inviting uncertainty bordering on chaos. As opposed to dealing with the known positives and negatives of the EU which to say the least is far from perfect, the majority have elected a new go it alone alternative in the hope that it will return the UK to it’s old glory. On it’s face, in a world that is becoming more and more globalized the decision is counter intuitive. (Blog: Apocalyptic BREXIT and The USA). What is emerging is that the BREXIT leader, Boris Johnson, who has a hairstyle uncannily similar to that of Donald Trump and that is not the only similarity, for all his high sounding patriotic and nativist rhetoric is clueless as to how proceed. In fact, since BREXIT, he has only been seen once in public while leaving his house, where he maintained that the markets and the pound had stabilized! In the midst of the leaderless pandemonium, the British Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party, David Cameron, has resigned while Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labor Party, who looks and behaves uncannily like Bernie Sanders, refuses to resign in spite of a growing Labor Party insurrection and an impending vote of no confidence. The basis of the discontent being that his leadership was less than half hearted in campaigning against BREXIT,

Furthermore the antagonists and protagonists of BREXIT defied the usual political breakdowns. There was no major Party split, with both the Conservatives and Labor hierarchies generally in favor. (This revolution of the British electorate mirrored the response of the American electorate to a major extent where the Republican hierarchy have been totally ignored in favor of Trump and Bernie Sanders gave the Democratic Establishment a run for their money.) 

While the UK and Wales voted against Scotland and Ireland voted for remaining in the EU thereby creating another major headache that could result in a split up of the United Kingdom which ironically is the last outcome that those that voted for the EU disintegration would want. So the UK Parliamentary leadership, UK and International Corporations, organizations such as The World Bank and International and British Commonwealth leaders, (excepting Trump), all opted for retention of the EU while the British voters in sum didn’t. Put another way a distinct chunk of the electorate rebelled against the status quo and were totally oblivious to all prophesies of financial doom or what the consequences of their actions might be. They rather believed their leaders who promised nirvana. 

Who are these people who followed their demagogic leaders?

BREXIT  AND TRUMP VOTERS?

Well it is obvious from the above demographics who they are not. They are also not from the major Financial Capitol of London and big cities generally. The voters, and remember they are still the majority, are those that are totally disenchanted and distrustful of government regardless of any argument. Remember the only really prominent world leader to date to back the BREXIT crowd is Donald Trump who claims to share the same disregard of representative government and has done as little preparation as to the impact of his economic and policy positions as has Johnson and the BREXIT protagonists have. 

While the BREXIT and the Trump constituencies across the pond would argue vociferously that they are not the same they certainly share plenty of values. In addition to distrust of the established order there is the issue of immigration. Both have as an article of faith that the “other” is the cause of all their woes real or imagined. To the UK and Trump voters the interlopers are taking their jobs and eating up their resources through entitlement benefits. This argument is particularly shallow in the American context which owes its prosperity to wave after wave of immigration. The UK  has seen a net inflow of over half a million immigrants in the past two years and there has been a job creation in 2014 and 2015 of over 700,000. Both the UK and the USA have their lowest unemployment figures in decades - around about 5 percent or lower. So the immigrant economic argument is a myth. It is more of a xenophobia than it is an economic reality. The feeling of being powerless and ignored by a their elected representatives in both countries however is very very real.

THE ECONOMICS AND FUTURE OF BREXIT

The reports slowly trickling out of the UK as to who voted for BREXIT show that many were not even aware of the full consequences. A County in Cornwall which voted to leave are demanding that the 60 million pound annual subsidy that they received  from the EU be paid for by the British government. This is a story that will be repeated as the bulk of the BREXIT voters were from rural and underserved areas that were entitled to EU subsidies. The hope is that the money the UK paid the EU will, besides propping up the National Health Service and various other priorities, see to these needs. It is generally accepted that the net amount that the UK pays the EU is about 8 billion pounds per annum. The argument is that it could be put to far better use at home. In two days the loss of the UK stock exchange and the value of the pound, which has dropped to its lowest value in thirty - five years, have rendered that sum seem paltry. The FTSE has lost over a 100 billion in a few days and the currency loss is estimated to be about a half of that.  The credit rating agencies have warned that the UK’s high AAA rating is at great risk and two of the agencies have already downgraded it to an AA. 

To put it at it’s kindest the bedlam is just beginning and with Cameron arguing that the new Prime Minister, to be appointed in September, will lead negotiating the exit from the EU the result will be that the financial uncertainty will escalate. Germany’s Angela Merkel who is the de facto leader of the EU has made it clear that their will be no soft landing for the UK and they need to get on with getting out of the EU. 

THE PLAYERS AND ENVIRONMENT

While some of the BREXIT voters apparently have buyer’s remorse it is the leadership that should take much of the responsibility for this mess. They have no plan whatsoever to put in their high fallutin promises and rhetoric. In the complex world of politics, economics and trade all they have is old fashioned slogans. All the politicians have this on their hands because they have ignored their electorates creating disillusionment and desperation amongst them. All this is happening in a world where there is instant news and communication. Vast numbers of people can share opinions and whip up support in no time. The legitimate media feed into the demagoguery to increase their ratings and the fourth estate have forsaken their role as a factor in educating the electorate in favor of sensation and entertainment. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

All this adds up to the reality that the politicians need to be more responsive to their electorate’s opinions and also lead responsibly. It is also a lesson that as inefficient as the political process is that revolution produces anarchy. While the parting from the EU was bloodless the results will produce a holy mess. The garbage that the proponents of leave the EU are now spouting is a far cry from what they ran their campaign on. Now they want to be part of Europe. This was not about stopping immigration that could result in hate. If that is what they really wanted they should have run on changing their relationship within the EU rather than exiting it, because they still might want to be part of Europe but the latter don’t want to be part of them. 

One hopes that the USA politicians, especially those within the GOP, recognize that a Trump Presidency will wreek havoc in the USA, and stop it in it’s tracks. The legitimate media too have to tell it as it is and start running features on the outcome of Trump having not spelled out programs to institute his so called policies. 

At the end of the day it is the responsibility of leaders to lead in addition to being sensitive to their electorate’s and society’s needs. To quote just one example how will history judge the GOP who ignored ninety percent of the electorate and society’s well being on gun control when there were thirty thousand gun deaths a year and terrorist suspects on the no fly list able to buy assault weapons? This particularly so when they served the needs of a special interest group, the National Rifle Association, who payroled their election campaigns, rather than society and those who elected them. 

History will be even harsher on the Republican leadership if they do not sabotage a Trump candidacy.