Jay H. Ell has already blogged that an explanation of the Trump's and the Sander’s unpredicted colosal following is as a result of the bloodless revolution that has taken place in American politics, particularly in the Republican Party. (Blog: America Spills its Guts in a Bloodless Revolution). This analysis and subsequent blogs have explained that the traditional parties, particularly the GOP, were totally out of sync with their voting base. For example, Trump reached several of the Republican constituencies by reflecting their anger at the threat of losing Social Security and Medicare, the illegal immigrants that were allegedly taking their jobs and keeping wages down, the failure to derail Obamacare, the fact that the “liberal agenda” on social issues prevailed even though the Republicans controlled Congress, the export of jobs, money and the like by the corporation fat cats and the fact that America, on the international scene, was being humiliated by all and sundry while paying their bills and playing the sugar daddy.
The central narrative that Trump and Sanders had in common was that they were for the little man - in Sander’s phraseology the one percent. The fact that they shared overlapping support was commented on by several pundits and provided endless fodder for endless political talk shows. The two were polls apart philosophically and politically yet there was a sizable percentage of both candidates following that maintained that their second choice would be the political polar opposite of their first choice.
Now objectively, by the normal parameters that are utilized as to who might win a Presidential election in the year 2016 both are chanceless. Sanders, notwithstanding his highly credible performance, with all his rationalizations, has been soundly beaten in the Democratic Primaries and as will be argued Trump has systematically set about ensuring his defeat.
GOP’S PROBLEM WITH TRUMP’S ASSESSMENT ON GAINING AN ELECTORAL MAJORITY
Besides being a thin skinned loose canon, a megalomaniac, a bully, a nasty piece of work whose only policies are either one line statements of bigotry or insults, Trump is ignoring the carefully crafted narrative that GOP Republic National Chairman, Reince Priebus, has built these past four years. Following yet another crushing national defeat at the hands of Obama’s Democrats in 2012, Priebus looked at the changing American demographic and their distribution in the States that favored the Democrats. Priebus realized that if they were to ever win another Presidency they had to make headway with the ever increasing minority vote. (Blog: Does Trump Walk on Water?). If the electorate had only been white then Romney would have beaten Obama by twenty percentage points!. The ever growing diverse make up of American citizenry had trumped Romney, only getting seven percent of the African American vote and twenty - seven percent of the Hispanic vote.
So hardworking Reince commissioned a report which would be the blueprint for future success entitled, “The Growth and Opportunity Project”. Inter alia it stated in so many words, “If Hispanic Americans perceive that a GOP nominee does not want them in the United States they will not pay attention to the next sentence….We must embrace comprehensive immigration reform….engage minorities on a full time basis…”. (For a more comprehensive review on the report and Priebus’s dilemma see May 30, Bloomberg Businessweek - “The Hardest Job in America - Reince Priebus and the Remaking of the Republican Party”).
Rebranding a political party has many precedents in America and the last century saw both major Parties do just that. Lyndon Johnson knew that with the Civil Rights Legislation he was kissing the Democratic hold on the South goodbye and that the Democratic Party was redefining itself. So one by one the Southern States became Republican as segregation was dismantled. Conversely Nixon remolded the Republican Party by pandering and recruiting the disaffected segregationist Southern Democrats. Necessity being the mother of invention the GOP now needs to modify its white, mainly male, elitist image and formerly welcome minority voters who might be attracted to the GOP’s philosophy of small government and the like.
It does not take a rocket scientist to realize that the presumptive Presidential nominee, “The Donald”, does not see it the GOP way and he has rather set about in no uncertain terms to increase the GOP’s already disproportionate share of the white electorate. The fact that this is near impossible, bearing in mind that Romney got close on sixty percent and did not have a “woman problem”, has not deterred Trump. However, the manner that he has set about it has definite racial overtones and has the danger of racially polarizing America in a fashion not imagined prior to this election.
Before analyzing what the Republican nominee has effected it might be salutary to point out some of the demographic that the other “working man” candidate, Bernie Sanders, has attracted. The latter interestingly enough has had his strongest success in States where the electorate is mainly white. Where the body politic is more reflective of the current American demographic Hillary wins. While obviously the main thrust of his success has been the youth and the disenchanted left, the possible substantial cross over vote to Trump has to be a white voter similar in make up to Trump’s current constituency or at least not uncomfortable with the racist component of his message.
TRUMP’S RECIPE FOR ELECTORAL DISASTER - HIS GAMBLE ON WHITE BIGOTRY TO VOTE HIM INTO POWER.
So from the word go Trump proceeded to create a foreign them and a white us. First it was the Hispanics that he belittled, although initially not the legal ones. However, just in case this was only an immigration issue that the conservative American Hispanics might excuse, (Romney’s twenty - seven percent share), he doubled down by attacking the race of an American born Federal Judge who was of Mexican descent. He repeatedly claimed that the Judge, who was presiding over litigation which he was involved in, was biased against him, The Donald, (a white man) because he, the Judge was “Mexican”. Just in case his Hispanic prejudices were not blatantly evident enough he castigated the female Hispanic Republican New Mexican Governor who is a rising star in the GOP and is the head of the Governors’ Organization.
Then he attacked the Muslim community by proposing a ban on all Muslims from entering America. In the process he was riling up the community with the threat Muslims posed to the American way of life. While the Mexicans were rapists, murderers and thieves all Muslims were terrorists till otherwise proved. “Make America Great Again” was the backdrop to all of this and it was becoming more and more evident that this was code for “Make America White Again”. This campaign initiative was directed to two objectives - whip up increasing number of whites and usher them into the Trump lager and secondly cast the minorities as "unter menschen" and a threat to the American way of life.
Just in case their were any Native Americans in the Republican column he made it quite clear that he didn’t want them either. He mocked Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has some native American blood, and kept calling her Pocohantas. He was corralling the white vote into the pens at the expense of all those that were different.
With his birther attacks he had already offended, among everyone else, the African American minority so he never waisted too much time smearing them.
Perhaps most scary of all was welcome of any and every white into the fold. When David Duke and his Neo Nazi, Klu Klux Klan, openly supported him he flagrantly refused to disassociate himself from their endorsement. He even pretended that how was he to know what they all stood for and who David Duke was. Failing to condemn Duke and the KKK he subsequently maintained was because he had a bad ear piece and couldn’t hear the reporter properly. Duke had got the message however maintaining that Trump was their man and he understood why he publicly couldn’t acknowledge this. The Anti Defamation League demanded that Trump make clear his condemnation of the KKK, Duke and anti semitism. Trump finally issued a statement that anti semitism had no place in “our society” but failed to mention the KKK.
This disgraceful incident and others have raised eyebrows of some who believe, notwithstanding his daughter and grandchildren, that he is anti semitic. The latter bigotry being the age old ploy to find a villain and then gather all the victims around you to fight the vermin. The evidence of this possibility is mounting to the extent that the staid Times of Israel ran a front page piece listing the anti semitic controversies that The Donald had been involved in. There have been yid like smirks towards the satirist icon, John Liebowicz, “I mean John Stewart”. Trump refused to condemn the virulent anti semitism that was directed at a jewish journalist Julia Ioffe. The latter had written a fairly innocuous article about Melania Trump that the she took umbrage with. The Jewish editor of the New York Times, that The Donald has singled out for bias has been subject to holocaust taunts. One trolled, “God the Trump Emperor sent Nazi iconography of the shitless jew”. Like with Ioffe, Trump has thus far not cautioned his supporters that this is unacceptable racist behavior.
Addressing the Jewish Republican Coalition he told them he didn't want their money, “Your’e not going to support me”. He then made a quip, that some maintained was a stereotypical jab about jewish deal negotiating. His usage of the America First slogan has been hotly criticized in that it was the slogan of anti semite Charles Lindbergh who used it in his crusade not to allow Jewish German refugees into America and to prevent America entering the Second World War.
While Trump has some major influential Jewish support the subject of anti semitism has been raised in great depth by the Times of Israel. At the very least he should heed the advice of the conservative American Spectator, who urged him to take a page from Ronald Reagan’s book and vigorously condemn the KKK and all that it stands for.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
The Donald in his hostile takeover of the Republican Party has reversed their avowed policy to reinvent themselves to be a more inclusive organization. He believes that he can win the election with white votes - a conclusion totally at odds with their own post mortem report following the 2012 election
While Trump has gone exclusively for the white vote he could have effected this without denigrating and belittling minority groups. The irresistible inference is that his racist attacks are being used in order to mobilize the white America Citizens. While the stated objective is to “Make America Great Again”, in this context it has to be code to “Make America White Again”. This has the effect of creating different Americas and risks creating a racist society.
His desire to unite the whites and thereby win the election with their support has resulted in him not outright and roundly condemning the KKK but also being, at best, on the issue of anti semitism, so wishy washy so as to open himself up to attacks of being an anti semite.
It is noteworthy that where a reluctant Paul Ryan did speak up against him it was on racial issues - the ban on all Muslims, his failure to condemn the Klu Klux Klan and recently his attacks on an American born Federal Judge because he was a “Mexican”. In the latter admonition Ryan was joined by Republican House Senate Leader Mitch McConnell. Both these leaders of the Party are affording cover for Republican legislators who will not want to be dragged down by the head of the Republican ticket in the forthcoming election. McConnell likened Trump's behavior to that of Barry Goldwater in 1964 who belittled African American voters thereby ensuring that none of them voted Republican.
Trump’s long shot at trying to increase the white vote to a figure much greater than Romney’s fifty - nine percent is destined for failure and he is sowing the seeds of his own destruction. His hope is to pick up some Bernie votes, (Sanders possibly being the only politician he hasn’t insulted), white blue collar workers in the rust belt, while hanging onto the white men and women that Romney registered. He needs endless numbers to make up for at least a ten percent suburban GOP who will either abstain or vote for some one else. He then must perform with the Hispanics as Romney did. If he did achieve this miracle he will have turned America into a racial cauldron in the process.
So Trump is not just a narcissistic, ignorant buffoon who would be a disaster in the Oval Office he is a retrogressive force in a world where racism and intolerance is on the rise. He can however claim one notch in his belt - the Grand Old Party.
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