ONWARD OBAMA’S BRAVE NEW WORLD.

While the focus in America is still on the ongoing 24/7 “Trump Reality Show” and the never ending Hillary/Sanders saga, even in spite of Obama's endorsement of Clinton, the POTUS  doggedly continues with his revolution of American Foreign Policy. (Blog: Obama’s Brave New World). He, more than most of his predecessors has seen America's principle role on the world stage in the Pacific Rim, as his current seventh sortie into Asia would indicate. In addition he has attended one or both of the meetings of the South East Asian Association and Asian Pacific Economic Conferences in seven of the eight years he has been in office. Obama’s calculation is that the world’s center of gravity is moving inexorably away from the European/American axis to the Pacific Rim/American axis. The main economic and even military challenger to the United States is no longer Europe or Russia but China. 

As far as America’s traditional and closest ally the United Kingdom is concerned, he basically told them on his last international tour that they would be irrelevant outside the European Union. He uncharacteristically commented on the domestic affair du jour in the United Kingdom, the referendum as to whether to remain in the European Union or not. The POTUS cautioned them that should the vote go against the UK remaining in the European Union their favored nation treatment with regard to trade and everything else would be history. As for Russia he has dissed them as being only a regional power and is singularly unimpressed with Putin’s posturing refusing to be taken in by his bluster and bravado.

While there is nothing more that he would like more than to forget about the Middle East the emergence of ISIS and the potential of its influence to destabilize the world means that he cannot ignore them.  America’s commitment to Israel is a priority that he has frequently underlined although his intense irritation with Bibi Netanyahu and his insistence on increasing settlements has soured day to day relationships. For the rest of the region he is disinterested to say the least.This particularly now that America is energy independent and the fact that, too his satisfaction, he has, for at least a decade, rid the world of the Iranian nuclear threat.  He has no desire to mix in the great bloody divide between the Sunnis and the Shia. The Saudis, America’s great post war ally, are all but being snubbed these days. 

Having sorted out some local Western hemisphere housekeeping duties by his overture to Cuba and once again focussing on South America it is all systems go to enter the region where he perceives the threat to American domination exists and where the growth and the action is. By so doing he is following the American multi nationals who hear ching ching as the East opens up. He is more than mindful that in this endeavor his life is going to be made difficult by China who are already provoking him militarily and are not playing fair economically.

PACIFIC RIM HERE WE COME.

The media coverage has been so scant that the Obama’s seven Asian tours in eight years of office has almost gone unnoticed. The focus is in the South Seas around China and it is military as well as economic. In addition to Japan the focus has been on the Association of South East Asian Nations. (ASEAS).  The two countries where most of the attention has been directed are South Korea and the Philippines. The Philippinos recently voted for a return of large American military presence. In addition he has visited six of the remaining ASEAS members, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mynamar, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. 

As recently as February this year Obama hosted the first US - ASEAS Conference in California. In his keynote address he laid it all on a line. He argued that few regions show more opportunity for the twenty - first century than the Asian Pacific. He confirmed that this region would be of ever increasing importance to America as illustrated by the fact that the US had formed a formal strategic partnership with ASEAS as a body and with the nations individually. Trade had increased over fifty percent since Obama took office with the region. Obama claimed that the US exports to the region now supported 500,000 American jobs and that the region’s GDP had increased dramatically while their economies had become more integrated. The Commander in Chief reminded those assembled that America had increased its maritime security assistance in that area thereby facilitating lawful commerce. With China’s imperial objectives being the thousand pound gorilla in the room Obama confirmed the importance of obedience to international law and freedom of navigation.

US MILITARY EXPANSION AND GROWTH IN THE WAKE OF CHINESE EXPANSIONISM

While the American society is absorbed with the xenophobic Trump, a silent battle is taking place for dominance in South East Asia between America’s allies, Japan and ASEAS, and China. America has a massive military presence in Japan with fifty thousand personnel. In addition  the Seventh Fleet is hanging around Japan’s shores and on the mainland there are over eighty army, air and navy installations. A Daily Beast piece outlined the ongoing Chinese territorial grabbing in South Seas of China and most recently their attempt to seize Japanese Islands where the US has a significant presence. Beijing has even sent in armed vessels. They have their sights on Okinawa where The US has half its Japanese bases and military personnel. The Chinese have used historical arguments for their predatory behavior. 

Obama’s recent visit to Vietnam where the Chinese have territorial ambitions is another piece in the puzzle that represents Obama’s unfolding foreign policy initiatives. His two visits to the Philippines have also borne fruit. The US military having been unceremoniously kicked out of the Philippines some time ago have now been offered eight military bases. One of these would be on an island that the Chinese claim is theirs.   

Maybe there is someone out there that is taking notice and will understand why the POTUS is so painstakingly moving into the region. His recent visit to Japan had more than symbolic significance. His balanced attitude to the Hiroshima catastrophe won him many friends.

All this is taking place while the US is slowly but surely building, particularly its naval presence, in the South Seas surrounding China. China has registered its protest to US reconnaissance planes in that area. 

THE TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (TPP) AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS

There is an awareness of the TPP on the current election trail. However, it is not in the context of the drama being played out in the South Seas. It is in terms of The Donald’s and The Berne’s narrative that American jobs will be lost. For the moment the membership consists of America, Canada some South American and some ASEAS nations in addition to Australia and New Zealand. The other ASEAS participants have all indicated interest and the potential is unlimited. That treaty which focusses on trade together with the Trans Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and NAFTA would allow America to tie up all sectors in its influence virtually excluding China from the action. 

Whatever the political outcome of the TPP it is as a result of a prolonged painful diplomatic tour de force engineered by the Obama administration. As to the impact on jobs the jury is out and it is fair to say that economists and specialists in this area are at odds. Many economists and trade specialists believe that there are other factors that are responsible for the outsourcing of employment, including tax avoidance and failure to stimulate training in new skills for example. 

OTHER GLOBAL OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES

Obama has had other global priorities which included Climate Change and decreasing the nuclear threat principally in Iran and North Korea. The latter’s situation has worsened while his deal with Iran still has its critics. Notwithstanding the fact that the GOP don’t believe global warning is a reality, 195 nations signed an agreement, in Paris, on a plan to decrease greenhouse emissions. It is no secret that the POTUS regards this as one of his crowning foreign policy achievements. 

The other major policy decision the Commander in Chief made was to extract the US as far as possible from participating in wars via combat troops. There have been no South American adventures. His failure to put boots on the ground in the Syrian debacle and to stop the ISIS march through the Middle East has resonated. His aggression is limited to providing "advisory" support and picking off terrorist leaders with drones. The utilization of the latter have played an ever increasing role in American security. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

All his initiatives represent a profound change in direction from the preceding forty years of American Foreign Policy. Needless to say history will have to be the final judge of the wisdom or lack there off. However, whatever the outcome the whole package does represent a coherent well thought out philosophy and response to the changing universe. 

Finally, whatever the merits or demerits of Obama’s reading of the change of world and his subsequent actions, the question remains whether The Donald is up to speed in meeting the challenges that the new world order presents. Hillary who had to have been part of all this obviously could build on the initiatives. The POTUS has already emphasized that his key message to the electorate is to explainthe difficult and complex problems The President has to face. Trump's number one contender for the Vice President spot, Newt Gingrich, unwittingly backing Obama has charitably labelled The Donald as a "gifted amateur" as well as dubbing his comments on the Federal Judge in Trump's litigation as "inexcusable".

All this is as a prelude to his entry into the US Presidential election where he, with his approval rate climbing steadily over fifty percent, is sure to have a decisive impact. First order of the day will be to massage The Berne’s ego. Obama has plenty riding on this - not the least of which is his legacy and his agendas - including foreign policy.