UK’S BREXIT AND USA’S ELECTION

So it really happened. A very divided United Kingdom divided from the European Union,(EU). The decision is inviting uncertainty bordering on chaos. As opposed to dealing with the known positives and negatives of the EU which to say the least is far from perfect, the majority have elected a new go it alone alternative in the hope that it will return the UK to it’s old glory. On it’s face, in a world that is becoming more and more globalized the decision is counter intuitive. (Blog: Apocalyptic BREXIT and The USA). What is emerging is that the BREXIT leader, Boris Johnson, who has a hairstyle uncannily similar to that of Donald Trump and that is not the only similarity, for all his high sounding patriotic and nativist rhetoric is clueless as to how proceed. In fact, since BREXIT, he has only been seen once in public while leaving his house, where he maintained that the markets and the pound had stabilized! In the midst of the leaderless pandemonium, the British Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party, David Cameron, has resigned while Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labor Party, who looks and behaves uncannily like Bernie Sanders, refuses to resign in spite of a growing Labor Party insurrection and an impending vote of no confidence. The basis of the discontent being that his leadership was less than half hearted in campaigning against BREXIT,

Furthermore the antagonists and protagonists of BREXIT defied the usual political breakdowns. There was no major Party split, with both the Conservatives and Labor hierarchies generally in favor. (This revolution of the British electorate mirrored the response of the American electorate to a major extent where the Republican hierarchy have been totally ignored in favor of Trump and Bernie Sanders gave the Democratic Establishment a run for their money.) 

While the UK and Wales voted against Scotland and Ireland voted for remaining in the EU thereby creating another major headache that could result in a split up of the United Kingdom which ironically is the last outcome that those that voted for the EU disintegration would want. So the UK Parliamentary leadership, UK and International Corporations, organizations such as The World Bank and International and British Commonwealth leaders, (excepting Trump), all opted for retention of the EU while the British voters in sum didn’t. Put another way a distinct chunk of the electorate rebelled against the status quo and were totally oblivious to all prophesies of financial doom or what the consequences of their actions might be. They rather believed their leaders who promised nirvana. 

Who are these people who followed their demagogic leaders?

BREXIT  AND TRUMP VOTERS?

Well it is obvious from the above demographics who they are not. They are also not from the major Financial Capitol of London and big cities generally. The voters, and remember they are still the majority, are those that are totally disenchanted and distrustful of government regardless of any argument. Remember the only really prominent world leader to date to back the BREXIT crowd is Donald Trump who claims to share the same disregard of representative government and has done as little preparation as to the impact of his economic and policy positions as has Johnson and the BREXIT protagonists have. 

While the BREXIT and the Trump constituencies across the pond would argue vociferously that they are not the same they certainly share plenty of values. In addition to distrust of the established order there is the issue of immigration. Both have as an article of faith that the “other” is the cause of all their woes real or imagined. To the UK and Trump voters the interlopers are taking their jobs and eating up their resources through entitlement benefits. This argument is particularly shallow in the American context which owes its prosperity to wave after wave of immigration. The UK  has seen a net inflow of over half a million immigrants in the past two years and there has been a job creation in 2014 and 2015 of over 700,000. Both the UK and the USA have their lowest unemployment figures in decades - around about 5 percent or lower. So the immigrant economic argument is a myth. It is more of a xenophobia than it is an economic reality. The feeling of being powerless and ignored by a their elected representatives in both countries however is very very real.

THE ECONOMICS AND FUTURE OF BREXIT

The reports slowly trickling out of the UK as to who voted for BREXIT show that many were not even aware of the full consequences. A County in Cornwall which voted to leave are demanding that the 60 million pound annual subsidy that they received  from the EU be paid for by the British government. This is a story that will be repeated as the bulk of the BREXIT voters were from rural and underserved areas that were entitled to EU subsidies. The hope is that the money the UK paid the EU will, besides propping up the National Health Service and various other priorities, see to these needs. It is generally accepted that the net amount that the UK pays the EU is about 8 billion pounds per annum. The argument is that it could be put to far better use at home. In two days the loss of the UK stock exchange and the value of the pound, which has dropped to its lowest value in thirty - five years, have rendered that sum seem paltry. The FTSE has lost over a 100 billion in a few days and the currency loss is estimated to be about a half of that.  The credit rating agencies have warned that the UK’s high AAA rating is at great risk and two of the agencies have already downgraded it to an AA. 

To put it at it’s kindest the bedlam is just beginning and with Cameron arguing that the new Prime Minister, to be appointed in September, will lead negotiating the exit from the EU the result will be that the financial uncertainty will escalate. Germany’s Angela Merkel who is the de facto leader of the EU has made it clear that their will be no soft landing for the UK and they need to get on with getting out of the EU. 

THE PLAYERS AND ENVIRONMENT

While some of the BREXIT voters apparently have buyer’s remorse it is the leadership that should take much of the responsibility for this mess. They have no plan whatsoever to put in their high fallutin promises and rhetoric. In the complex world of politics, economics and trade all they have is old fashioned slogans. All the politicians have this on their hands because they have ignored their electorates creating disillusionment and desperation amongst them. All this is happening in a world where there is instant news and communication. Vast numbers of people can share opinions and whip up support in no time. The legitimate media feed into the demagoguery to increase their ratings and the fourth estate have forsaken their role as a factor in educating the electorate in favor of sensation and entertainment. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

All this adds up to the reality that the politicians need to be more responsive to their electorate’s opinions and also lead responsibly. It is also a lesson that as inefficient as the political process is that revolution produces anarchy. While the parting from the EU was bloodless the results will produce a holy mess. The garbage that the proponents of leave the EU are now spouting is a far cry from what they ran their campaign on. Now they want to be part of Europe. This was not about stopping immigration that could result in hate. If that is what they really wanted they should have run on changing their relationship within the EU rather than exiting it, because they still might want to be part of Europe but the latter don’t want to be part of them. 

One hopes that the USA politicians, especially those within the GOP, recognize that a Trump Presidency will wreek havoc in the USA, and stop it in it’s tracks. The legitimate media too have to tell it as it is and start running features on the outcome of Trump having not spelled out programs to institute his so called policies. 

At the end of the day it is the responsibility of leaders to lead in addition to being sensitive to their electorate’s and society’s needs. To quote just one example how will history judge the GOP who ignored ninety percent of the electorate and society’s well being on gun control when there were thirty thousand gun deaths a year and terrorist suspects on the no fly list able to buy assault weapons? This particularly so when they served the needs of a special interest group, the National Rifle Association, who payroled their election campaigns, rather than society and those who elected them. 

History will be even harsher on the Republican leadership if they do not sabotage a Trump candidacy. 

APOCALYPTIC BREXIT AND THE USA

The United Kingdom and Europe are in the midst of a crisis that can destabilize the region and rock the world. A movement, (BREXIT), is in full flight to take Britain out of the European Union that could have paradigm changing consequences. In this day and age of instant communication the whole potential train smash that is being played out in slow motion has almost been totally ignored by the media in the USA. 

This state of affairs is also indicative of the current place the United Kingdom occupies in the American psyche. Other than in financial circles, the crisis labelled BREXIT, hardly registers on the radar screen. What’s a crucial issue for Britain and Europe no longer seems to fuzz the American populace that till very recently spoke so fondly of their brother nation across the pond. It really does not seem so long ago when George Bush and Tony Blair decided that they would, rather than hang alone, would hang together over Iraq. There are plenty of reasons for the apparent American disinterest but before going there Jay H. Ell better explain what BREXIT is before he loses the bulk of his readership, which is American.

BREXIT

BREXIT, (Britain exit the European Union), is the acronym given to the referendum that the British peoples are holding on June 23, 2016 to decide whether or not to remain in the European Union, (EU). The latter is made up of 28 European nations that form a sort of loose federation. There are four essential areas of cooperation to the Union that allow for a free flow of workers, goods, capital and services. The EU is managed by an independent bureaucracy in Brussels and that is big part of the problem. The British Prime Minister,  David Cameron, recently exacted concessions from the EU but those that want to exit are still not mollified. The concessions related to less benefit payments to migrant workers, the protection of London as a financial service center, the maintenance of the pound sterling and the ability of fifty - five percent of EU nations to block any EU legislation. 

Now the British population are split down the middle on this issue. The hierarchy of the major parties are all in favor of remaining in Europe but there is wide spread resentment at “being told what to do by Brussels”. Much of the opposition to the EU, however, as one might guess relates specifically to immigration issues.

BREXIT AND OBAMA.

As far as the US administration is concerned the UK is far better off in the EU. Obama spelled it out on his recent visit to the country. America has elaborate and comprehensive trade deals with the EU and the POTUS made it quite clear that the US would put the project of renegotiating these with Britain, “at the back of the line” should they exit Europe. There were  reasons for Obama’s out of character intemperate statements. He has high ratings in the UK and maybe he was doing an old friend a favor by backing a position which is obvious in most circles of power throughout the world. Next he has defocussed from Europe period - Blog: “Onward Obama’s Brave New World”. Finally, Obama is the first modern era President who does not have his roots in Europe - his are African and Asian. In short America sees the new world axis being the Pacific Rim and the Americas where all the potential growth is. However, first and foremost, Obama has to be more aware than anyone else of how BREXIT could destabilize the world’s economy. 

BREXIT AND THE US FINANCIAL CIRCLES

The American financial circles are extremely agitated about BREXIT and the impact of a vote to leave the EU. In the short term they are virtually unanimous that there will be a convulsion on the US and World financial markets. An exit will result in a precipitous drop initially. In the long term the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen who has been positive about the US economy has forecast that the that the shock will have profound effects and this would be one of the factors that her Board would take into account whether to raise interest rates or not. It would be hard to imagine BREXIT not creating a chain reaction as the financial markets are so linked in the global economy. Much of the USA business activity would leave the UK. For example, J. P. Morgan has indicated that they will scale down their London operation markedly in the event. J. P. Morgan is not alone according to The Washington Post. US companies employ a million people in the UK and the US is it’s largest investor of over a half a trillion dollars a year. The corporations otherwise operating in London are doing so as the UK are in the EU. American corporations are donating heavily to fight BREXIT. 

There is a minority view however who maintain the US, in particular New York stand to gain from BREXIT. London is a world financial center but BREXIT will reduce it’s influence and the business will end up in New York. Finally, there are those that believe when it all washes out and it will take a few years to do so the whole hullabaloo will turn out to have zero impact on the USA.

BREXIT AND THE US BODY POLITIC

The fact that Trump has not tweeted about it means that the media have not focussed on the issue. ( No further commentary is needed to the extent the media have sold its soul to ratings). In fact Trump has been so all absorbing that the citizenry and its media have all but ignored Obama’s reorientation  of American foreign policy towards the East let alone his attitude to BREXIT. Trump’s neglect is incomprehensible in a way as the controversy is so much bound up on the question of immigration and immigration largely means “you know who” to “you know who”. Plenty of squealing is emanating from the BREXIT crowd on the immigration numbers and in many ways it has fueled their whole campaign. Cameron promised to cut immigration in 2015 to a net of a 100,000 but the figure was closer to 350,000. 

One of the reasons Trump is not exploiting an event that is so much part of his narrative and one that his base can identify with is that he made such an idiot of himself on the London Mayoral issue that at end of the day he will just trade on the local xenophobia and miss out on any that might just be floating around in the United Kingdom. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Although the Brussels bureaucracy has to be driving British society to distraction, in this day and age of globalization and breaking down of boundaries, Britain would be ill served going it alone. Also they will take a financial hit all over the show. With the efflux alone of the multinationals, who are in London because it is central to the financial world, the UK populace would take a knock. Local business, trade and the like not to mention the potential drop in property prices and in sterling would all be sequelae of the BREXIT decision. So while Britannia no longer rules the waves it should not waive goodbye to the EU. The International Monetary Fund, reflecting world wide concern believes that BREXIT would be “negative and substantial”. That is a masterpiece of understatement. It would be a disaster.

One can only hope sanity will prevail on Thursday. In fact the polls are turning and the bookmakers have dramatically shortened their odds on BREXIT triumphing. However, it is scant comfort to learn that the USA has not the monopoly on self destructive and insane constituencies.

TRUMP: AMERICAN VALUES AND NATIONAL SOCIALISM

Donald J. Trump has facilitated this election cycle morphing it into an assault on the very integrity of what America has stood for from the time Jefferson enunciated his vision that, “All men were created equal”. This hope was fleshed out through the past nearly four centuries by the likes of Lincoln, Elizabeth Stanton and Luther King who advanced the American Founding father’s belief into reality. The nation was founded as the world’s first true Democracy where a covenant was formed between those that govern and the governed who had elected them. In order to feed the gargantuan appetite of progress that catapulted America into the most powerful nation in the world there were waves of immigrants - “Give me your tired and poor, Your huddled masses ….”. The proud boast was that within a generation or two members of this flotsam and jetsam could become the movers and shakers of this sub continent as they were rapidly integrated into the melting pot. 

As a backdrop to what is happening in America there is, throughout the world, a rejection across the political spectrum of current Western values by extremists.  Lord Rabbi Sack’s in his acceptance speech when receiving the Templeton prize, the equivalent of a Nobel in the field of spirituality, referred to the cynical abandonment of the ethical values of the Age of Enlightenment where responsibility for life has been replaced by, greed, entitlement and self promotion. He argues that the political arena has been taken over by four groups - the far right that seek a golden past that never was; the far left that seek a utopian future that will never be; religious extremists that believe salvation lies in violence and aggressive secularism who argue that with religion there never can be peace. The threat of the religious extremists on the fabric of modern society is in essence the issue of our time but before it can be rationally attacked the forces of sanity have to get their act together.

In America, (as in other Judea - Christian democracies), the immediate threat is the reintroduction of racism and xenophobia by a plausible populist demagogue who has, in addition, tapped into the great current social issue of our time - the growing obscene disparity of wealth between a tiny section of the citizenry and the body politic. The racial hatred engendered by Trump is fueled by the emergence of an outrageously violent sub culture of Islam that has no respect for life or decency to the extent that one wonders what they are fighting for other than to control the world. In addition the old scape goat antisemitism is gaining ground as a means to rally support and create a victimhood and a simplistic solution to the problems of life.  

TRUMP - A NATIONAL SOCIALIST

There is much that resonates between Hitler’s movement of National Socialism and Trump’s banal rhetoric. Essential to  propelling Nazism into nearly world dominance, was a  mesmerizing master communicator who tuned into the darkest fears of the population and provided them both with a simplistic racial answer to all their problems while focusing on their economic predicament and the evils of capitalists. While Trump blames the economic straits of the current workers on immigration, mainly Hispanics, as well as outsourcing capialists, Hitler blamed it on the jews. While Hitler saw the main threat to civilization in the Soviets, Trump relies on the tiny group of Islamic religious fanatics and gains traction by lumping 1. 6 billion Muslims with them. Implicit in his message is the authoritarian and totalitarian stamp with which he garnishes his directives. He acts as if there is no separation of powers and has said on occasion that the Speaker of the House will do as he is told. In his repugnant attacks on the “Mexican” judge overseeing his fraud case in California, who has set the trial for November to accommodate Trump’s electoral campaign, he hinted at what it would mean if he was President and the trial proceeded. Commentators believed he was alluding to the power he would have over the judge. His campaign is premised on the narrative of his celebrated sick reality show where in each episode he barked out with sadistic glee, “Your’e fired!”. It is his way or the high way. 

Trump has not openly tied his philosophies, (sic), onto a nationalist socialistic label but has done nothing to prevent the association from being made. His insistence on the slogan America First has stuck in the crawl of those that remember that was the slogan that propelled American icon Charles Lindbergh’s charismatic pro nazi antisemitic campaign to keep America out of World War 11. Lindbergh too drew thousands of cheering glazed mobs. 

Then followed his failure to disavow Klu Klux Klan leader David Duke and his organization. The whole episode involving Duke and the KKK was handled in the manner that has been recognized as his serpentine modus operandi. He feigned ignorance as to who Duke was and what he stood for. He then stretched credibility to the limit when challenged again and again he stated he did not hear the reporter’s questions due to a faulty earpiece. This he did knowing full well and not caring that anyone who viewed the tape of the interview would recognize his explanation as an outright lie. He has been likened to Hitler again and again. Most recently, at Mitt Romney’s annual retreat of Republican donors, Meg Whitman, CEO of Hewlett Packard, called him just that, calling upon the Republican Party to disavow him.

REALLY - PUT AMERICA FIRST

The  GOP

With the emergence of Trump, who is more and more out of control, all bets are off on the other pressing issues facing the nation. Both parties are honing their manifestos in favor of stopping this runaway train that is well on its way to a massive wreck. The Republicans have their knickers in a knot as Trump remains “off message”. Four years of attempting to win over minorities gets trashed day after day by their de facto leader. He is at odds with Speaker Ryan on entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare. He has already alienated key establishment members including previous Presidents with his xenophobia. He has raised eyebrows with his support of a gun ban on those on the terrorist list - the NRA’s agenda is catechism to the Party Establishment. 

In short he is not remotely interested in the policies of the Republicans. By definition he is a National Socialist. He just used the GOP name to further his Presidency ambitions. This begs the question why the Republican hierarchy don’t cut him loose. Is Hillary really worse? At least she is not about to take on our allies and declare World War 111. It is fair to say that there are growing numbers in the Party that have abandoned him. In addition there is agitation to dump him because it is in the interests of the country let alone the GOP. Republican Joe Scarborough, the host of Morning Joe, the highly influential television talk show, is leading a charge for the Republican leadership to disavow Trump. He foresees not only permanent damage to the Republican brand but the loss of the House and the Senate and an irreversible setback to Republican philosophy. However it is fair to say that Scarborough’s principle motivation is that Trump is a disaster for America.

The DEMS

While there is no real split in philosophy in the Democratic Party Bernie Sanders has not as yet endorsed Hillary as he believes he has the muscle to change the Party agenda and is holding out. While the Dem dilemma is mild compared to the chaos of their opponents tempers are shortening as Sanders makes demand after demand. While he states that he will do all in his power to stop Trump he is still campaigning. There are those that argue his influence is receding daily where, in spite of super human efforts in the final Primaries he was smashed. He had widely prophesied that he could win the last six Primaries so he could make demands at the Convention. He lost five. Besides the main plum California where he outspent and out campaigned Clinton, the State of Washington and Washington DC results were salutary. In Washington DC where only he contested, Clinton wiped the floor with him registering nearly eighty percent of the Democratic vote. The State of Washington held a Primary vote which included the Democratic Party nominees. This took place months after the Democratic caucus where Bernie had his largest victory with seventy percent of the vote. With no electioneering in this contest the Democratic voters turned out in the Washington State Primary and reversed the result with Hillary obtaining over seventy percent of the vote. It appears that most of the  Democratic electorate have already made the “hard choice” in the light of the danger of a Trump Presidency. So Bernie better get his act together or otherwise he will not be relevant.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

While heavens knows there are problems in America where greed has run amuck, precedence is given to avert a Trump Presidency. Although his electoral task is logistically daunting anything can happen in a two horse race.Trump a dangerous opportunist has taken advantage of the fact that the GOP have a major disconnect with their voters on several issues. For example, the overwhelming number of Republican voters are in favor of gun control but the NRA still control the Party second amendment agenda. 

In addition the urgency to kibosh Trump as Commander in Chief is that the key problem the world faces is the rise of religious inspired homespun terrorism. The fight would be handicapped if Trump forced the 1.6 billion Muslims into supporting ISIS. As it is the tussle will require an international coalition and as Templeton laureate Sacks has outlined a concentrated effort by all three monotheistic religions together with the secular humanists.

ONWARD OBAMA’S BRAVE NEW WORLD.

While the focus in America is still on the ongoing 24/7 “Trump Reality Show” and the never ending Hillary/Sanders saga, even in spite of Obama's endorsement of Clinton, the POTUS  doggedly continues with his revolution of American Foreign Policy. (Blog: Obama’s Brave New World). He, more than most of his predecessors has seen America's principle role on the world stage in the Pacific Rim, as his current seventh sortie into Asia would indicate. In addition he has attended one or both of the meetings of the South East Asian Association and Asian Pacific Economic Conferences in seven of the eight years he has been in office. Obama’s calculation is that the world’s center of gravity is moving inexorably away from the European/American axis to the Pacific Rim/American axis. The main economic and even military challenger to the United States is no longer Europe or Russia but China. 

As far as America’s traditional and closest ally the United Kingdom is concerned, he basically told them on his last international tour that they would be irrelevant outside the European Union. He uncharacteristically commented on the domestic affair du jour in the United Kingdom, the referendum as to whether to remain in the European Union or not. The POTUS cautioned them that should the vote go against the UK remaining in the European Union their favored nation treatment with regard to trade and everything else would be history. As for Russia he has dissed them as being only a regional power and is singularly unimpressed with Putin’s posturing refusing to be taken in by his bluster and bravado.

While there is nothing more that he would like more than to forget about the Middle East the emergence of ISIS and the potential of its influence to destabilize the world means that he cannot ignore them.  America’s commitment to Israel is a priority that he has frequently underlined although his intense irritation with Bibi Netanyahu and his insistence on increasing settlements has soured day to day relationships. For the rest of the region he is disinterested to say the least.This particularly now that America is energy independent and the fact that, too his satisfaction, he has, for at least a decade, rid the world of the Iranian nuclear threat.  He has no desire to mix in the great bloody divide between the Sunnis and the Shia. The Saudis, America’s great post war ally, are all but being snubbed these days. 

Having sorted out some local Western hemisphere housekeeping duties by his overture to Cuba and once again focussing on South America it is all systems go to enter the region where he perceives the threat to American domination exists and where the growth and the action is. By so doing he is following the American multi nationals who hear ching ching as the East opens up. He is more than mindful that in this endeavor his life is going to be made difficult by China who are already provoking him militarily and are not playing fair economically.

PACIFIC RIM HERE WE COME.

The media coverage has been so scant that the Obama’s seven Asian tours in eight years of office has almost gone unnoticed. The focus is in the South Seas around China and it is military as well as economic. In addition to Japan the focus has been on the Association of South East Asian Nations. (ASEAS).  The two countries where most of the attention has been directed are South Korea and the Philippines. The Philippinos recently voted for a return of large American military presence. In addition he has visited six of the remaining ASEAS members, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mynamar, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. 

As recently as February this year Obama hosted the first US - ASEAS Conference in California. In his keynote address he laid it all on a line. He argued that few regions show more opportunity for the twenty - first century than the Asian Pacific. He confirmed that this region would be of ever increasing importance to America as illustrated by the fact that the US had formed a formal strategic partnership with ASEAS as a body and with the nations individually. Trade had increased over fifty percent since Obama took office with the region. Obama claimed that the US exports to the region now supported 500,000 American jobs and that the region’s GDP had increased dramatically while their economies had become more integrated. The Commander in Chief reminded those assembled that America had increased its maritime security assistance in that area thereby facilitating lawful commerce. With China’s imperial objectives being the thousand pound gorilla in the room Obama confirmed the importance of obedience to international law and freedom of navigation.

US MILITARY EXPANSION AND GROWTH IN THE WAKE OF CHINESE EXPANSIONISM

While the American society is absorbed with the xenophobic Trump, a silent battle is taking place for dominance in South East Asia between America’s allies, Japan and ASEAS, and China. America has a massive military presence in Japan with fifty thousand personnel. In addition  the Seventh Fleet is hanging around Japan’s shores and on the mainland there are over eighty army, air and navy installations. A Daily Beast piece outlined the ongoing Chinese territorial grabbing in South Seas of China and most recently their attempt to seize Japanese Islands where the US has a significant presence. Beijing has even sent in armed vessels. They have their sights on Okinawa where The US has half its Japanese bases and military personnel. The Chinese have used historical arguments for their predatory behavior. 

Obama’s recent visit to Vietnam where the Chinese have territorial ambitions is another piece in the puzzle that represents Obama’s unfolding foreign policy initiatives. His two visits to the Philippines have also borne fruit. The US military having been unceremoniously kicked out of the Philippines some time ago have now been offered eight military bases. One of these would be on an island that the Chinese claim is theirs.   

Maybe there is someone out there that is taking notice and will understand why the POTUS is so painstakingly moving into the region. His recent visit to Japan had more than symbolic significance. His balanced attitude to the Hiroshima catastrophe won him many friends.

All this is taking place while the US is slowly but surely building, particularly its naval presence, in the South Seas surrounding China. China has registered its protest to US reconnaissance planes in that area. 

THE TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (TPP) AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS

There is an awareness of the TPP on the current election trail. However, it is not in the context of the drama being played out in the South Seas. It is in terms of The Donald’s and The Berne’s narrative that American jobs will be lost. For the moment the membership consists of America, Canada some South American and some ASEAS nations in addition to Australia and New Zealand. The other ASEAS participants have all indicated interest and the potential is unlimited. That treaty which focusses on trade together with the Trans Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and NAFTA would allow America to tie up all sectors in its influence virtually excluding China from the action. 

Whatever the political outcome of the TPP it is as a result of a prolonged painful diplomatic tour de force engineered by the Obama administration. As to the impact on jobs the jury is out and it is fair to say that economists and specialists in this area are at odds. Many economists and trade specialists believe that there are other factors that are responsible for the outsourcing of employment, including tax avoidance and failure to stimulate training in new skills for example. 

OTHER GLOBAL OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES

Obama has had other global priorities which included Climate Change and decreasing the nuclear threat principally in Iran and North Korea. The latter’s situation has worsened while his deal with Iran still has its critics. Notwithstanding the fact that the GOP don’t believe global warning is a reality, 195 nations signed an agreement, in Paris, on a plan to decrease greenhouse emissions. It is no secret that the POTUS regards this as one of his crowning foreign policy achievements. 

The other major policy decision the Commander in Chief made was to extract the US as far as possible from participating in wars via combat troops. There have been no South American adventures. His failure to put boots on the ground in the Syrian debacle and to stop the ISIS march through the Middle East has resonated. His aggression is limited to providing "advisory" support and picking off terrorist leaders with drones. The utilization of the latter have played an ever increasing role in American security. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

All his initiatives represent a profound change in direction from the preceding forty years of American Foreign Policy. Needless to say history will have to be the final judge of the wisdom or lack there off. However, whatever the outcome the whole package does represent a coherent well thought out philosophy and response to the changing universe. 

Finally, whatever the merits or demerits of Obama’s reading of the change of world and his subsequent actions, the question remains whether The Donald is up to speed in meeting the challenges that the new world order presents. Hillary who had to have been part of all this obviously could build on the initiatives. The POTUS has already emphasized that his key message to the electorate is to explainthe difficult and complex problems The President has to face. Trump's number one contender for the Vice President spot, Newt Gingrich, unwittingly backing Obama has charitably labelled The Donald as a "gifted amateur" as well as dubbing his comments on the Federal Judge in Trump's litigation as "inexcusable".

All this is as a prelude to his entry into the US Presidential election where he, with his approval rate climbing steadily over fifty percent, is sure to have a decisive impact. First order of the day will be to massage The Berne’s ego. Obama has plenty riding on this - not the least of which is his legacy and his agendas - including foreign policy. 

THE DARK RACIST SIDE OF THE TRUMP REVOLUTION

Jay H. Ell has already blogged that an explanation of the Trump's and the Sander’s unpredicted colosal following is as a result of the bloodless revolution that has taken place in American politics, particularly in the Republican Party. (Blog: America Spills its Guts in a Bloodless Revolution). This analysis and subsequent blogs have explained that the traditional parties, particularly the GOP, were totally out of sync with their voting base. For example, Trump reached several of the Republican constituencies by reflecting their anger at the threat of losing Social Security and Medicare, the illegal immigrants that were allegedly taking their jobs and keeping wages down, the failure to derail Obamacare, the fact that the “liberal agenda” on social issues prevailed even though the Republicans controlled Congress, the export of jobs, money and the like by the corporation fat cats and the fact that America, on the international scene, was being humiliated by all and sundry while paying their bills and playing the sugar daddy. 

The central narrative that Trump and Sanders had in common was that they were for the little man - in Sander’s phraseology the one percent. The fact that they shared overlapping support was commented on by several pundits and provided endless fodder for endless political talk shows. The two were polls apart philosophically and politically yet there was a sizable percentage of both candidates following that maintained that their second choice would be the political polar opposite of their first choice. 

Now objectively, by the normal parameters that are utilized as to who might win a Presidential election in the year 2016 both are chanceless. Sanders, notwithstanding his highly credible performance, with all his rationalizations, has been soundly beaten in the Democratic Primaries and as will be argued Trump has systematically set about ensuring his defeat. 

GOP’S PROBLEM WITH TRUMP’S ASSESSMENT ON GAINING AN ELECTORAL MAJORITY

Besides being a thin skinned loose canon, a megalomaniac, a bully, a nasty piece of work whose only policies are either one line statements of bigotry or insults, Trump is ignoring the carefully crafted narrative that GOP Republic National Chairman, Reince Priebus, has built these past four years. Following yet another crushing national defeat at the hands of Obama’s Democrats in 2012, Priebus looked at the changing American demographic and their distribution in the States that favored the Democrats. Priebus realized that if they were to ever win another Presidency they had to make headway with the ever increasing minority vote. (Blog: Does Trump Walk on Water?). If the electorate had only been white then Romney would have beaten Obama by twenty percentage points!. The ever growing diverse make up of American citizenry had trumped Romney, only getting seven percent of the African American vote and twenty - seven percent of the Hispanic vote. 

So hardworking Reince commissioned a report which would be the blueprint for future success entitled, “The Growth and Opportunity Project”. Inter alia it stated in so many words, “If Hispanic Americans perceive that a GOP nominee does not want them in the United States they will not pay attention to the next sentence….We must embrace comprehensive immigration reform….engage minorities on a full time basis…”. (For a more comprehensive review on the report and Priebus’s dilemma see May 30, Bloomberg Businessweek - “The Hardest Job in America - Reince Priebus and the Remaking of the Republican Party”).

Rebranding a political party has many precedents in America and the last century saw both major Parties do just that. Lyndon Johnson knew that with the Civil Rights Legislation he was kissing the Democratic hold on the South goodbye and that the Democratic Party was redefining itself. So one by one the Southern States became Republican as segregation was dismantled. Conversely Nixon remolded the Republican Party by pandering and recruiting the disaffected segregationist Southern Democrats. Necessity being the mother of invention the GOP now needs to modify its white, mainly male, elitist image and formerly welcome minority voters who might be attracted to the GOP’s philosophy of small government and the like.

It does not take a rocket scientist to realize that the presumptive Presidential nominee, “The Donald”, does not see it the GOP way and he has rather set about in no uncertain terms to increase the GOP’s already disproportionate share of the white electorate. The fact that this is near impossible, bearing in mind that Romney got close on sixty percent and did not have a “woman problem”, has not deterred Trump. However, the manner that he has set about it has definite racial overtones and has the danger of racially polarizing America in a fashion not imagined prior to this election. 

Before analyzing what the Republican nominee has effected it might be salutary to point out some of the demographic that the other “working man” candidate, Bernie Sanders, has attracted. The latter interestingly enough has had his strongest success in States where the electorate is mainly white. Where the body politic is more reflective of the current American demographic Hillary wins. While obviously the main thrust of his success has been the youth and the disenchanted left, the possible substantial cross over vote to Trump has to be a white voter similar in make up to Trump’s current constituency or at least not uncomfortable with the racist component of his message.  

TRUMP’S RECIPE FOR ELECTORAL DISASTER  - HIS GAMBLE ON WHITE BIGOTRY TO VOTE HIM INTO POWER.

So from the word go Trump proceeded to create a foreign them and a white us. First it was the Hispanics that he belittled, although initially not the legal ones. However, just in case this was only an immigration issue that the conservative American Hispanics might excuse, (Romney’s twenty - seven percent share), he doubled down by attacking the race of an American born Federal Judge who was of Mexican descent. He repeatedly claimed that the Judge, who was presiding over litigation which he was involved in, was biased against him, The Donald, (a white man) because he, the Judge was “Mexican”. Just in case his Hispanic prejudices were not blatantly evident enough he castigated the female Hispanic Republican New Mexican Governor who is a rising star in the GOP and is the head of the Governors’ Organization. 

Then he attacked the Muslim community by proposing a ban on all Muslims from entering America. In the process he was riling up the community with the threat Muslims posed to the American way of life. While the Mexicans were rapists, murderers and thieves all Muslims were terrorists till otherwise proved. “Make America Great Again” was the backdrop to all of this and it was becoming more and more evident that this was code for “Make America White Again”. This campaign initiative was directed to two objectives - whip up increasing number of whites and usher them into the Trump lager and secondly cast the minorities as "unter menschen" and a threat to the American way of life.

Just in case their were any Native Americans in the Republican column he made it quite clear that he didn’t want them either. He mocked Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has some native American blood, and kept calling her Pocohantas. He was corralling the white vote into the pens at the expense of all those that were different.

With his birther attacks he had already offended, among everyone else, the African American minority so he never waisted too much time smearing them. 

Perhaps most scary of all was welcome of any and every white into the fold. When David Duke and his Neo Nazi, Klu Klux Klan, openly supported him he flagrantly refused to disassociate himself from their endorsement. He even pretended that how was he to know what they all stood for and who David Duke was. Failing to condemn Duke and the KKK he subsequently maintained was because he had a bad ear piece and couldn’t hear the reporter properly. Duke had got the message however maintaining that Trump was their man and he understood why he publicly couldn’t acknowledge this. The Anti Defamation League demanded that Trump make clear his condemnation of the KKK, Duke and anti semitism. Trump finally issued a statement that anti semitism had no place in “our society” but failed to mention the KKK. 

This disgraceful incident and others have raised eyebrows of some who believe, notwithstanding his daughter and grandchildren, that he is anti semitic. The latter bigotry being the age old ploy to find a villain and then gather all the victims around you to fight the vermin. The evidence of this possibility is mounting to the extent that the staid Times of Israel ran a front page piece listing the anti semitic controversies that The Donald had been involved in.  There have been yid like smirks towards the satirist icon, John Liebowicz, “I mean John Stewart”. Trump refused to condemn the virulent anti semitism that was directed at a jewish journalist Julia Ioffe. The latter had written a fairly innocuous article about Melania Trump that the she took umbrage with. The Jewish editor of the New York Times, that The Donald has singled out for bias has been subject to holocaust taunts. One trolled, “God the Trump Emperor sent Nazi iconography of the shitless  jew”. Like with Ioffe, Trump has thus far not cautioned his supporters that this is unacceptable racist  behavior. 

Addressing the Jewish Republican Coalition he told them he didn't want their money, “Your’e not going to support me”. He then made a quip, that some maintained was a stereotypical jab about jewish deal negotiating. His usage of the America First slogan has been hotly criticized in that it was the slogan of anti semite Charles Lindbergh who used it in his crusade not to allow Jewish German refugees into America and to prevent America entering the Second World War.

While Trump has some major influential Jewish support the subject of anti semitism has been raised in great depth by the Times of Israel. At the very least he should heed the advice of the conservative American Spectator, who urged him to take a page from Ronald Reagan’s book and vigorously condemn the KKK and all that it stands for. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The Donald in his hostile takeover of the Republican Party has reversed their avowed policy to reinvent themselves to be a more inclusive organization. He believes that he can win the election with white votes - a conclusion totally at odds with their own post mortem report following the 2012 election

While Trump has gone exclusively for the white vote he could have effected this without denigrating and belittling minority groups. The irresistible inference is that his racist attacks are being used in order to mobilize the white America Citizens. While the stated objective is to “Make America Great Again”, in this context it has to be code to “Make America White Again”. This has the effect of creating different Americas and risks creating a racist society. 

His desire to unite the whites and thereby win the election with their support has resulted in him not outright and roundly condemning the KKK but also being, at best, on the issue of anti semitism, so wishy washy so as to open himself up to attacks of being an anti semite.

It is noteworthy that where a reluctant Paul Ryan did speak up against him it was on racial issues - the ban on all Muslims, his failure to condemn the Klu Klux Klan and recently his attacks on an American born Federal Judge because he was a “Mexican”. In the latter admonition Ryan was joined by Republican House Senate Leader Mitch McConnell. Both these leaders of the Party are affording cover for Republican legislators who will not want to be dragged down by the head of the Republican ticket in the forthcoming election. McConnell likened Trump's behavior to that of Barry Goldwater in 1964 who belittled African American voters thereby ensuring that none of them voted Republican. 

Trump’s long shot at trying to increase the white vote to a figure much greater than Romney’s fifty - nine percent is destined for failure and he is sowing the seeds of his own destruction. His hope is to pick up some Bernie votes, (Sanders possibly being the only politician he hasn’t insulted), white blue collar workers in the rust belt, while hanging onto the white men and women that Romney registered. He needs endless numbers to make up for at least a ten percent suburban GOP who will either abstain or vote for some one else. He then must perform with the Hispanics as Romney did. If he did achieve this miracle he will have turned America into a racial cauldron in the process.

So Trump is not just a narcissistic, ignorant buffoon who would be a disaster in the Oval Office he is a retrogressive force in a world where racism and intolerance is on the rise. He can however claim one notch in his belt - the Grand Old Party.