The ink is barely dry on the page that Reince Priebus penned that Donald J. Trump was the presumptive Republican nominee for President and the reality has shocked the country shuffling the whole political landscape in the most unimaginable way. This is an ongoing unprecedented saga that is changing every minute and it has just begun. The GOP has to take responsibility for the mess they are in. The general uprising of the electorate, which has impacted the Democrats as well, is because nothing has happened in Washington. And who has made it the proud objective to do nothing - the Republicans. The Republicans in the legislature have had only three objectives for the past six years - reverse Obamacare, deny Obama a second term and then not to cooperate with Obama. In American politics that means that there would be no legislation. Most legislation in America is compromise - something in it for everybody. No legislation means that there is nothing for anybody. In a climate where the little man has been screwed and the corporations and the one percent have taken over coupled with the fact that nothing has been done to alleviate the position, the electorate are going to react. And react they have. (Blog: America Spills its Guts in a Bloodless Revolution).
THE ELECTORATE IS ANGRY
Donald Trump’s emergence as the presumptive Republican nominee for the President of the most powerful nation in the world has thus not occurred in a vacuum. It is not a coincidence that his triumph has been accompanied by the amazing resonance a lone unknown geriatric democratic socialist has elicited among the Democratic electorate. There is a commonality in part of their messages. The Republican Party on the one hand has ignored their base in favor of the elite the rich and powerful and on the other the Democratic Party has not been effective in reversing the concentration of wealth and power in the tiny minority. While the majority of the Dems recognize that Hillary’s heart is in the right place, notwithstanding her lucrative lecturing circuit, and her “concessions” are political the Republican faithful have convincingly sent a message that they have been abandoned by their Party. So while there are tremendous policy differences between Hillary/Saunders and Trump they both, on the face of it, are arguing in favor of the American worker, against the Establishment. The problem with Trump of course is Trump. (Blogs: The Revolting Trump Revolution and Enter Lying GOP Nominee Donald Trump).
THE REASON FOR THE ANGER AND THE OUTCOME
The central narrative running through American politics is that there is disillusionment of the establishment on every level. It is not only on the governmental level the man in the street believes that the whole pack of cards is stacked against him. They maintain that the corporations have exploited them and abandoned them. Corporations do what they like fiscally and to their employees. The body politic believe that the government cannot or will not do anything to curtail their behavior even to the extent that they can pack up and leave to a country where labor is cheaper thereby making them jobless. That together with the fact that the one percent don’t pay taxes is central. They also increase their incomes obscenely while the ninety - nine percent's wages are static. They claim is that there is no recourse through the massively expensive judicial system who support the corporations and have conferred upon them powers almost equivalent to those of a nation state. The corporations and institutions have been involved in shady deals at their employees and society’s expense and have brought the nation to its knees with citizens losing their jobs and homes and then they go unpunished.
The Primaries have signaled that the status quo has been dramatically challenged. On the Republican side they have cast aside the whole establishment and on the Democratic notice has been served that the fight needs to be more intense.
Change is always scary and nothing is more scary than having the unstable lying Donald Trump at the helm of the most powerful nation in the world.
IMMEDIATE RESPONSE TO TRUMP’S NOMINATION
It is fair to say that the traditional Republican establishment are in a state of shock at Trump’s ascendency and several have expressed their disgust in no uncertain terms. The most striking commentary comes from the last five Republican Presidential nominees, two of whom were Presidents - Bush 41 and 43. The latter with Romney and McCain have stated that they will not attend the Republican National Convention and Bob Dole, whom Trump has labelled a loser, has said he would only be there for one day. Several Republican legislators and officials have already announced their intention not to attend. The injunction by Ward Baker, who is chief strategist in defending the Republican control of Senate, that candidates needn’t bother to attend the Republican Convention is not exactly helping Trump’s cause either.
Now these Conventions are really love fests where the Presidential nominee gets support, hugs and encouragement from all that matter in the Party. It is the ceremonial and festive launching of the election campaign and the kumbaya of all the factions of the party. Previous Republican nominees are usually the main cheerleaders. The audience consists principally of 2016 delegates and party legislators on all levels and officials. As Jay H. Ell has previously blogged, (Blog: Incompetent Trump’s Victory is at Risk), the delegates are party apparatchiks and are not exactly warm to Trump. In fact they had been worked over, canvassed, chosen and courted by everyone but Trump. Cruz had made massive inroads with this delegate crowd as he had banked his run at the presidential nomination on a second ballot. So Trump’s populist speech and histrionics that pack stadiums to the rafters where he develops his populist themes that anger the Republican conservatives and the centrists alike, for different reasons, may not go down all that well.
Now Jay H. Ell believes it would have been possible for Donald Trump to unify the party but he defiantly stated that it wasn’t necessary nor does he even want to. G-D knows who is advising him. The Donald has made it clear throughout that it is his way or the high way. He met the overture from the current de facto leader of the GOP, House Speaker Paul Ryan, with his traditional counter punching. Ryan to the pundits’ amazement claimed that he was just not ready to support the presumptive candidate. He argued, in effect, that it was Trump’s responsibility to unify the Party and he hoped that this would happen. Trump spat back, "I am not ready to support Speaker Ryan's agenda. Perhaps in the future we can work together and come to an agreement about what is best for the American people. They have been treated so badly for so long that it is about time for politicians to put them first!” To Ryan’s pointed remark about the legacy of the Republican Party, he socked it to him, “I didn’t inherit the Republican Party I won it!”. His campaign spokesperson continuing in the same vein sassed that if Paul Ryan does not support Trump he should resign. It doesn’t need a rocket scientist that the message is that not only is it his way from now on Ryan and his crew screwed up and he,Trump, is there to clean the mess up.
Now there is a movement amongst the GOP for a third candidate who truly represents the GOP principles, (sic). At this stage there is an increasing number of GOP legislators who are not endorsing their leader. According to Peter King Republican Congressmen there are at least forty in the House who are dead against him. Respected GOP commentators like George Will, Jennifer Rubin, Eric Erickson and Billy Crystal believe that it is better to loose an election than the Party. There is a plan in the works that aims for a third party candidate to win six States that will deny both nominees 270 electoral delegates and the House of Representatives will elect the President. The notion of a third Party candidate is gaining steam. Among those advocating this in the Senate is Senator Sasse of Nebraska. He has argued for an “adult” third party candidate. Many feel it should be him but Romney is being mentioned as a strong possibility.
Mary Matalin a respected, even iconic, GOP operative dramatically announced that she has joined the Libertarian Party. Also there is an awareness among Congressional Republican candidates that Trump’s nomination is going to make their lives much more difficult in the forthcoming election. Chief among these is veteran John McCain who was taped at a fund raising meeting saying that the Trump situation will result in his reelection to the Senate, “the greatest challenge ever”. Several GOP donors are considering diverting their funds to Hillary. Chief among these are the heavyweight Koch brothers who control a billion dollars. The Democrats are looking at a Republicans for Hillary movement. The GOP Convention has seen a marked drop in sponsorship. And on and on the litany of backlashes continues and it has just begun. Good luck to the Chairman of the RNP, Reince Priebus to put Humpty Dumpty together again.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
It is fair to say that the jury is out as to how this will all end. On the one hand the Party might grudgingly stand together and nominally back Trump and on the other these divisions might grow deeper and deeper.Some of the damage has to be irreversible. Much depends on Trump. He still has to learn that the GOP is not his personal company. The members of all its constituencies are not his employees to hire or fire. The party legislators don't have to listen to him whether he rants or raves. The Constitution, with its separation of powers, that allowed him this almost independent run for Presidency is really a pain for dictators. There is so much division of power and cooperation needed to get anything done as The Donald would find out if somehow he was elected Commander in Chief.
Whichever the scenario as looked at it does not bode well for the billionaire. He is way behind Hillary in the polls and the key demographics, women and minorities’ overwhelming support for the Secretary of State brings States into play states like Arizona, Virginia and Colorado. Trump believes that white blue collared males will leave the Dems in droves. This will open the rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin to end up in his column. According to former Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania Ed Rendell this cross over may well occur but for each blue collar worker that switches at least two suburban Republicans will vote for Hillary. This viewpoint was reinforced by former New Jersey Republican Governor Christie Whitman who stated she was being overwhelmed by Republicans who cannot support Trump. She herself is going to write in Kasich.
Jay H. Ell has consistently maintained from the word go that, firstly, The Donald would stand and then that he could well win the nomination. He also has blogged that The Donald had no chance to win the Presidency. So his advice to the GOP antagonists is not to play games because at the end of the day Trump did win the Primary. He defeated many of the concepts that represent Ryan’s GOP policy. They all would be better served to study why this happened and adjust their antediluvian financial policies and then take what is left of the Republican Party off life support. Trump has threatened that there would be violence if he was robbed of the nomination by the establishment. It is interesting to note even though he is the presumptive nominee he still is addressing crowds of primary voters that he no longer needs - “I want the Primaries to continue”. This is his strength while he has not the discipline, the temperament or the support to do what he really has to do secure the back up of the Party. He simply won’t accept that he doesn’t own the Party just because he won the Primary.
Ironically, Hillary who is not the presumptive nominee as yet has opted out of the Primaries and is already running against Trump. The characteristic that Bernie, who cannot win the Democratic nomination, shares with Trump, besides populism, is denial. He too believes that if he gets forty percent of the delegates he owns forty percent of the Democratic Party and if they don’t give it to him he will raise all hell at the Convention. Unlike The Donald, Hillary is ignoring Bernie and must hope against hope that, sooner or later, he will realize who the fight is against. Bernie Sanders still, at this late stage even though he cannot win the Democratic nomination, concentrates his fight more towards Hillary. (Blog: What is it about politics that Bernie does not understand?).
As matters stand at the moment Trump will go down spectacularly bringing the Senate with him with the GOP losing a ton of House Seats. He will be officially a loser. But before that happens there is a long long way to go. The Donald will not fade easily and anything goes. The Berne will turn the world upside down on his way out. He will see his defeat as a loss of a battle and that the war will continue. Watch this space for comment on the twists and turns that are still to come.
At the end of the day change has to be effected and in America that requires both sides. Jay H. Ell has little doubt that, on balance. Clinton 45 has the know how, experience and smarts to get it done.
No comments:
Post a Comment