SOUTH AFRICA:  EMERGING LEADER OR BASKET CASE

Alan Paton captured, in the very beginnings of apartheid, the immoral morass and conflicts that the racist and totalitarian policy was bringing about in his iconic novel Cry the Beloved Country. Nearly fifty years later Nelson Mandela established the Rainbow Nation and together with others that were in the “struggle”, such as Archbishop Desmond Tutu, both of them Nobel Peace winners, began to move forward towards a democratic equitable and forgiving South Africa. Tutu was a key player in moving the healing process by heading the Truth and Conciliation Commission where those apartheid criminals who confessed and asked for forgiveness could be pardoned. Mandela for his part, together with the Afrikaner visionary De Klerk, was busily crafting a democratic society which was epitomized by a far reaching, and even revolutionary Constitution. This latter document would allow jurisdiction on anything and everything to achieve the objectives of the new egalitarian society and never allow South Africa to slip into racism and totalitarianism again. The Constitution would be interpreted by an independent Constitutional Court. Mandela had a touching trust in the judiciary notwithstanding his life time in prison. 

With this as a background who could ever have forecast that twenty - one years into the New South Africa that Archbishop Tutu would proclaim that the government of the African National Congress, (ANC), of Luthuli, Tambo, and Mandela under the leadership of President Jacob Zuma was worse than apartheid. Tutu continued, “I am warning you like I warned the Nationalists…. You are disgraceful….. You represent your own interests…. Watch out…. The Nationalists had a huge majority …They bit the dust…. Watch out ANC. “ 

 THE SEVEN YEAR LEAD UP TO THE CURRENT SOUTH AFRICAN CRISIS

Mandela’s South Africa has been on the slippery slope to hell ever since the election in 2009 of Jacob Zuma to the Presidency. (Blog: Mandela’s South Africa - One Minute Before Midnight). In essence it began two years earlier in 2007 at the ANC conference at Polokwane when Zuma was elected the leader of the ANC replacing President Thabo Mbeki. The latter a remote intellectual who had spent the apartheid years in exile. As his Premiership advanced he had grown more and more remote from the Party representatives and operatives. He had driven all and sundry to distraction with his unbending refusal to recognize the need to treat HIV with the then costly antivirals. His ostensible argument, with some American scientific crazies backing him up, was that there was no proven link between HIV and AIDS. AIDS was in the process of ravaging Africa and very few did not have some connection with a victim. So Zuma although already mired in controversy with a recent well publicized rape trial where he was found not guilty and with his financial advisor in jail for being found guilty of bribing him, emerged triumphant.

What Zuma lacked in vision, integrity, education and principle he more than compensated for in political skill, a canny intuitive sense of decision making and ruthlessness. Following his election in 2009 he had a twofold objective - to eliminate the institutions that investigated and prosecuted corruption and to surround himself with beholden sycophants thereby enriching himself and his cronies. In the process South Africa went steadily downhill. Just some of the sequelae included the fact that her credit rating is now just above junk bond status, the rand has devalued a hundred percent in relation to the dollar since Zuma signed in and the government owned South African Airways has lost money making it unique in relation to the industry whose profits have skyrocketed with the three fold drop in oil prices. The infrastructure has not kept up and electricity shutdowns are the order of the day. The civil service is overburdened with people lining up in the early hours in the morning so as to be one of the relatively few to be able to register for needed documents such as identity and passports. Birth certificate copies never seem to arrive and on and on. The education system has gone to hell in a hand basket as South African students fail to matriculate and score on the lowest level compared to other countries. 

Zuma continues oblivious to scandal after scandal that erupts around him. He has a bizarre relationship with the Gupta family that has enriched itself with State deals and in the process employed many a Zuma relative. The Guptas enjoy such a bond with the Premier that they offer cabinet positions and utilize military airports…. 

Opposition is roughed up even on occasion even in parliament and so it goes. 

ZUMA BACKS DOWN

A crack appeared in the Zuma facade as covered in the most recent blog on South Africa’s situation, “Mandela’s South Africa - One Minute Before Midnight”. It related to the Premier’s attempt to replace his Finance Minister with a yes man in order to have no opposition to the acquisition of nuclear power plants from Russia and airplanes for the shockingly managed  South African Airways. All hell broke lose on the financial markets and Zuma uncharacteristically backed off after representations from top ANC officials including Cyril Ramaphosa the Deputy ANC leader. The crack in the Zuma facade is widening as evidenced by the fact that his major benefactor, the Gupta family, are packing up and leaving. All major financial institutions have withdrawn doing business with them perhaps heralding scandals yet to unfold. 

THE NKANDLA HOUSE OF CARDS THAT MIGHT BREAK THE CAMEL’S BACK

There has been a simmering infamy that finally broke this month known as the Nkandla affair. The latter involved the unashamed allocation of two hundred and forty - six million South African Rand for the building of a private residence for the President. The extravagances were astounding - visitor’s centers, accommodation for his several wives, a chicken run, a cattle kraal and an amphitheater. The justification for this outrage was all this was needed for the security of the President. The flagrant abuse was highlighted by the fact that the rural area that Nkandla is situated in is awash with poverty and short of essential services. Tax payer money was diverted from other departments to make this all possible. Needless to say this travesty was under constant attack from all quarters and Zuma’s sycophants produced no less than six investigations clearing their leader of any malfeasance and accepting the canard that the expenditure was justified in the interests of security.

However there are still institutional provisions to address such excesses and more importantly brave souls to see that they still have teeth. One such office is that of Public Protector and one such hero is a soft spoken gutsy woman Thuli Madsonela.

INVESTIGATION BY PUBLIC PROTECTOR MS MADSONELA

Advocate Madsonela, a highly qualified jurist with a number of Doctorates of Law, lead the investigation into Nkandla. Throughout the process of her probe she was harassed and bullied by Zuma’s ministers who told her to stop. The cherry on the top was the threat by the Minister of Police to arrest her if she released her preliminary report in 2013. She ignored his bluster as she maintained that his ranting had no basis in law. Her detailed report was released in 2014 and was met with unprecedented criticism and attack by the Zuma defense cadres. The ANC Youth League called for her resignation, she was accused of being a “counter revolutionary” by a deputy cabinet minister and Zuma’s ANC supporters piled into her.

She remained unmoved and responded to Zuma’s reply to her submission that he repay the treasury for those buildings that were patently not geared to his security by telling him she was dissatisfied with his explanations. Madsonela was gaining more and more national and international support and recognition for her courageous dedication to duty (Time named her one of the 100 most influential people in the world for 2014). The major opposition parties the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters laid a charge against Zuma with the Constitutional Court . They argued that Zuma and Parliament in failing to accept the Public Protector’s findings and recommendations had defied the Constitution.

CONSTITUTIONAL COURT  RULES ON NKANDLA AND ZUMA DEFIES

In an unanimous ruling the Constitutional Court ruled that President Zuma failed to uphold, defend and respect the Constitution and ordered him to repay a large portion of the money back to the State. The Chief Justice Mogoeng praised the Public Protector calling her the biblical David fighting against the Goliath of corruption. Mogoeng called the decision a profound lesson for the young democracy. If nothing else Mandela’s faith in an independent judiciary had prevailed.

Zuma unabashedly declared victory for Democracy and accepted the Court’s decision . In contrast he declined to accept responsibility. He claimed that he had been wrongly legally advised to oppose the Public Protector’s ruling and had acted in good faith. Understandably none other than the Party faithful bought this and the calls for his resignation resonated from every quarter including from ANC stalwarts of the ‘“struggle”. A vote for his impeachment was beaten on straight party lines in Parliament but even the party faithful squirmed as they had to face the question as to whether the Constitution that had been fought for in blood and tears was meaningless.

But at the end of the day politics is about winning elections and that means one of two things Zuma and his cadres are voted out by the ANC or the ANC are voted out by the electorate. 

WHAT MECHANISM CHANGE ?

The ANC has been steadily losing support but still have a majority of the electorate vote. They control sixty - two percent of the four hundred legislative seats. Nine opposition parties share the remaining one hundred and forty - one members with the Democratic Alliance having eighty - nine of those. The opposition represents the spectrum of political philosophy ranging from Trotskyite Leninism to right wing fundamentalist religion. Hardly a recipe for forming a coalition government to topple the ANC.

The electorate’s lingering enchantment with the ANC is understandable. It is the Party of Mandela and the vehicle which brought about change. Periodically the party trot out pictures of the ailing Mandela embracing Zuma just in case they have forgotten. They reinforce that abandoning the savior now is tantamount to treachery and would be the rejection and betrayal of all that the revolution was about. Voting against the ANC is voting for apartheid is the not so hidden message. 

So the hope of those that want to rid the country of this venal cabal lies with reclaiming the ANC. The ostensible main protagonist for this task is Cyril Ramaphosa the Deputy Leader. He was after all Mandela’s choice as his successor. However having been outmaneuvered by Mbeki he made an untold fortune in business before returning to government. This former Trade Unionist has a dented image and was implicated in a police massacre of striking miners. One of the architects of the Constitution he needs to risk and a make a move. There is little doubt that he was one of the deputation that forced the first dent in Zuma’s facade by compelling him to backtrack on his axing of the Minister of Finance. However, the reality is that there are so many of the ANC leadership that are there because of cronyism and this has to make his task unenviable. Zuma has foreseen the fight for his successor claiming that the time has come for a woman leader - namely one of his ex wives.

The strategy of beating the ANC at the polls is the next best hope. Nkandla is slowly sinking into the country’s consciousness. It cannot be forgotten too that South Africa has a sophisticated first world financial and economic infrastructure. Nothing is impossible as many of the forces that assisted in the axing of apartheid are still around. De Klerk has considerable clout and there are other foundations and non governmental agencies such as the Institute of Race Relations. The media have to a certain extent been overtaken by Zuma forces but that has been more than nullified by the social media. The University students are unhappily more concerned with the past than concentrating their energies on the corruption of their current government. The opposition Democratic Alliance is growing in strength and their new charismatic leader Mmuse Maimane is a rallying point. They are expected to make big gains in the next municipal elections but at the end of the day their nidus are the whites and are so easily prey to the smear that they will bring back apartheid. 

There is one other option. The ANC itself has to have a substantial group who actually believe that the struggle was not to create another despotic Zimbabwean Mugabe surrounded by venal sycophants while the rest of the country rotted into a third world quagmire. If they were to break and join with key opposition elements a majority of the electorate would easily be attainable. The situation is ripe for key negotiations and indabas that preceded the creation of the new South Africa.  There are more than enough credible groups to set this up. 

The failure to rid the country of the current culture of corruption will not mean that that business as usual will continue. The fact that the key financial, educational, infrastructure and civil management parameters are worsening together with an almost twenty - five percent unemployment figure must sooner or later spill into the streets. The years long drought will only add to the misery, frustration and anger. 

ONE FACTOR THAT REMAINS CONSTANT…..

South Africa as Alan Paton wrote over a half century ago in his novel "Ah but your land is beautiful" is as heavenly as ever. On the surface nothing has changed. It is a tourist mecca with its game parks, its rolling mountains and its beaches and oceans. The indescribably dazzling Cape Town with three of the top ten hotels in the world has real estate that has attracted the whose who on the world stage. The Garden Route with its jewel in Plettenberg Bay enchants busloads of gaping visitors who have passed through the wine lands of the Cape where the charming towns of centuries old Stellenbosch and Fransch Hoek offer sophisticated cuisine. The rolling hills of Natal with its beaches and the game parks in Gauteng all add up to the constant refrain, regardless of the political situation, “Ah But Your Land is Beautiful”. One can only pray that the beauty can once again accompany a thriving society that is an example to the world and not another third world basket case. South Africa is after all not one of the G20 nations for nothing