Trump the self declared omnipotent, every time winner, genius and know all needs fifty - eight percent of the remaining six hundred and forty - one Republican delegates still outstanding in the remaining Primaries to become the Republican nominee for President. The loudmouth better get them or be very close otherwise his chances of nomination could recede dramatically. The reason that there is any doubt to the all conquering hero’s crowning is that the Republican electoral process changes dramatically once there is no outright winner in the Primaries. Trump obviously believes that there is a real danger of defeat as he has already threatened that his supporters will riot should he be “robbed” of the right to contend in November’s Presidential election by the Republican Congress. But the fact that his victory is at risk is really as a result of his incompetence, arrogance and boorish behavior. To all this is added the Cruz/Kasich alliance and the Stop Trump campaign.
Let’s deal with his incompetence first.
TRUMP UNPRPEPARED AND INCOMPETENT AS TO HOW BECOME PRESIDENT
How Trump has achieved what he has with only three bankruptcies is a testimony to what as a child one use to characterize by the statement, “Bulls..t baffles brains”. Besides his monumental ignorance of the issues facing America he had no clue, as it turns out, of the GOP process in electing a Presidential nominee. He had no idea and therefore effected no involvement in the canvassing, election or choosing of the Republican Congress delegates. The latter are those at the Convention that vote according to the initial Primary contest results. If there is no outright winner on the first ballot the situation becomes much more complicated. Unbelievably, the guy who claims to be the obvious choice to be the leader of the free world didn’t even know how the presidential electoral process works hence his problem.
Now this unbelievable incompetence would only become significant if he doesn’t reach the magic number of twelve hundred and thirty - seven delegates in the Primaries themselves. The reason that there could be a problem if he doesn’t lies in the byzantine way the GOP then elects its Presidential nominee. The delegates assume an incredible importance if no candidate obtains a majority on the first ballot. The Donald should have known that as after all he is running for President. Cruz and Kasich are fully apprised hence they are still hanging in. Not only are Cruz and Kasich hanging in they have just formed an alliance to prevent The Donald from achieving his goal and thereby force a brokered conference. They will be assisted by the Stop Trump Political Action Committees.
Now each one of the two thousand four hundred and seventy delegates will vote in the first ballot according to the voters choices but even there there are exceptions. If after the first ballot there is no winner anything goes - for practical purposes these delegates can now vote for anyone. So The Donald who has zilch support among the delegates themselves could be heading for a fall.
Not only has the billionaire done feathers to address this key component of being elected, he has gone out of his way to denigrate the delegates themselves as well as the Republican National Committee, (RNC), who have almost total control of the process and therefore can influence the outcome.
TRUMP ON THE RNC AND ITS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTORAL PROCESS
From the outset Trump has made it clear that he was the outsider. The Republican Party better treat him fairly or else he would run as a third party candidate. He tossed off anyone or anybody who was a somebody that was part of the Republican Establishment. It didn’t seem to matter what the latter thought his audience were lapping it all up and that was all that really mattered. The attacks were initially generic but recently he has been concentrating on the electoral process of the RNC Convention. This focus began when the would be leader of the free world clicked as to how the electoral process worked.
He started a daily rant that the election process was “rigged by party operatives with double agent operatives who reject the decisions of the voters”. He would not let up, labelling the Republican Convention as deceptive and a disgrace. He claimed the delegates were bribed, had their hotels paid for and the like. In spite of Trump ostensibly becoming contrite his son repeated the allegations that the RNC process was undemocratic and used the term bribery again on April 24, 2016. The billionaire’s attacks were a feature of his stump and he even threatened to remove the democratically elected Chairman of the RNC, Reince Priebus.
Whatever subsequently happens between the RNC and Trump camps the damage has already been done. The resentment of the everyday GOP delegate at this trashing by this Johnny Come Lately has got to stick. Trump’s fear that the controlling RNC will favor anyone but him is well founded. The last GOP heavily contested convention in 1976 where the Establishment favored Ford they did just that. In addition he cannot undo the canvassing that Cruz and Kasich have already executed.
TRUMP’S DAMAGE CONTROL
Trump at this late stage of the game is courting delegates. He has even mooted entertaining and wining and dining them. He has after all the entertainment infrastructure available. Trump belatedly appointed Paul Manafort Ford’s successful conventional floor manager in the 1976 brokered Republican convention. Manafort has also successively represented Reagan, George H. W. Bush and Bob Dole.
Manafort promptly held a meeting with the RNC to alleviate their fears about the loose canon he was representing. To his embarrassment his presentation to them was recorded and then leaked. Manafort explained that Trump was just playing to the gallery and there was a different Donald who could be Presidential. This recording on the Presidential trail would be as devastatingly negative to Trump as Romney’s division of America into the “givers” and “takers” was.Trump is unashamedly labelling himself as a hypocrite who is hoodwinking his supporters. In any case why would the GOP Establishment be mollified by the revelation that they were just being smeared off the face of the earth to get votes.
BOTTOM LINE
If Donald Trump does not march into Cleveland with the majority of delegates he thus has a grim battle on his hands. Whatever happens the GOP will continue shattering. They would accept Cruz under sufferance as he too has attacked the Party. It is all really getting worse and worse and with the Koch brothers announcing that Hillary is the most qualified candidate for Presidency the GOP are wondering where it is all going to end. One thing is for certain is that the Party and its delegates will stop Trump if they can. Much focus is on the Indiana Primary where the winner receives all fifty - seven delegates. Cruz is thought to be ahead and he is not much in evidence in the five North Eastern States that are at stake this week. He is in Indiana and with Kasich out his chances increase. His objective is to keep The Donald from attaining the fifty - eight percent of the outstanding delegates available. Kasich argues if he can get two hundred and fifty delegates on the first ballot he too is in with a chance. Their newly announced deal not to get in each others way so as not to benefit Trump shows they are serious and exacerbates The Donald’s problem.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Trump of course trumpets on in total denial that it is a result of his incompetence that he is in a position to be losing his hard earned popular vote victory. This is such a basic mistake that one wonders how anyone can have faith in his decision making ability as President.The good news for Trump is that he still has to be the favorite to get the nomination. (If he wins Indiana it is all over bar the shouting). The bad news is that even if he does obtain the nomination there does not appear to be a pathway to the White House. Just to look briefly at three facts: Romney carried twenty - seven percent of the Hispanic vote in addition to a record number of the white vote, (fifty - seven percent) and was trounced. Trump would be lucky to garner fifteen percent of the Latinos and it is estimated for the GOP to win the Presidency they need close to forty percent. Then can you imagine all those denigrated Republican delegates working their hearts out for Trump in their constituencies? Finally, thirty percent of GOP voters in the Primaries have attested that they will not vote for Trump if he is the nominee.
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