OBAMA LEARNS THE GAME

Barack Obama who hasn’t been known for his adept political skills is belatedly getting it. There is little doubt that whatever he is doing he is doing it right. His approval rating is at its highest for years, over fifty percent, which is about the same as Ronald Reagan the Republican G-D was in his eighth year. This eventuality is extremely important as the Republicans desperately wanted to make this election a referendum on Obama - why Jay H. Ell is not quite sure as they have lost two of those already. Hillary of course read it right and has been running for Obama’s third term from the get go. (Blog: Why Hillary is Running for Obama’s Third Term). All this by way of digression as the GOP are in total disarray and if there is going to be referendum about anyone it is going to be about The Donald. The question is why Obama is gaining in the electorate’s esteem at this lame duck point in time and what is his number one priority?

OBAMA’S OBJECTIVE  

Obama, at this stage has a principle objective and that is to build on his legacy. In order to effect this he needs Hillary in the White House and at least the Senate back in Democratic control. Thanks to Trump and the unravelling of the GOP he is halfway there already. However with a couple of deft moves on the political scene he has improved his chances of a Democratic President and at least the Senate becoming Democratic. His nomination of Justice Merrick Garland to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court created by the unexpected death of Justice Scalia has precipitated further chaos amongst the already helter skelter Republicans. His capitalizing on the business coalition that has formed against the GOP with their sterile financial stance is another point that he is hammering home. Also a fresh Obama has served notice that he is about to take over the 2016 election cycle. All this while he sucks up media oxygen with his historic visit to Cuba.

SUPREME COURT NOMINATION - OBAMA’S BIG GAMBLE

 The POTUS faced a recalcitrant  GOP leader McConnell who, on the announcement of the death of Justice Scalia, axed all his options by declaring that there is no way that he will allow the Senate to consider any Obama Supreme Court nomination. The next appointment has to await the outcome of the Presidential election. Obama then pondered his options. The Obama of yore would have used this opportunity to bolster up the base in the full knowledge that this was an exercise in futility anyway. This was the safe way to go. May as well play to the home base. He had any number of credible candidates that could have served the purpose. There was the female African American Attorney General Loretta Lynch who would have been a historic first whose nomination would have put pay to those that believed that he really hasn’t done enough for his African American base. Then there was Judge Sri Srinivasan who would have been the first South Asian to be on the Supreme Court bench a canny pick to juice up all the minorities. A name toted by the faithful was Senator Elizabeth Warren who would be just the business for the base that has become more and more liberal. Warren is a standard bearer of the constituency represented by Bernie Sanders who feel deserted by the Democratic establishment. Such a nomination would give credibility to a Obama/ Clinton team. 

However, Obama ignored the temptation to go that way and instead he took a gamble. By nominating a highly respected apolitical jurist, Judge Merrick Garland he put the Republican Senators in a quandary. While Garland was far from a Scalia, there was not a jot of judicial evidence that he would break the Supreme Court in a liberal direction. Here was an opportunity for McConnell to at least block a flaming liberal nomination and not hand the Court over to the liberal faction . But McConnell had already committed and recommitted himself. The base he was playing to is the sterile Trump and the Cruz base and the expected knee jerk reaction to anything Obama puts forward which has been his trade mark form of governing these past 8 years. In no time the vulnerable GOP Senators, particularly from Illinois and Pennsylvania were at odds with him. Eight to ten GOP Senators have indicated that they at least wanted to meet Garland. 

What made this whole issue even more prescient was the fact that the Supreme Court’s Chief Justice Roberts, two weeks before Scalia’s death, slammed the present confirmation process that focussed on politics. Roberts has been battling for some time to break the perception that the Court is a political institution. He argued forcibly that the criterion for elevation to the highest bench should be merit. In this regard the Chief Justice shares the same consensus opinion of Garland’s ability. He served on the same Court of Appeals as Roberts. Roberts in fact when asked about an opinion of his where Garland dissented commented to the effect that if Garland is in dissent against you you better be at the top of your game. There is speculation that Roberts may speak out on the Republican attitude to the process itself and specifically at their treatment of a fellow member of the bar who epitomizes judicial restraint. 

Virtually every Republican commentator has argued that the Senate should proceed with the Presidential nomination. In some cases the criticism of McConnell was code for “Are you guys nuts. Wait till you see who Hillary Clinton nominates?” George Will that doyen of GOP commentators was scathing. Not only did he castigate the McConnell crew for their ludicrous unconstitutional position, he pointed out that Garland’s record is not dissimilar to that of judges appointed by George W. Bush and Reagan. Kasich, the old GOP’s last standing standard bearer, told McConnell to go through the process. He claims that he would nominate Garland for the Supreme Court! McConnell then went even further in his obstinacy when arguing that he would not consider a Supreme Court Judge unless they were acceptable to the National Rifle Association. 

This failure to fill the court is going to play out long and hard in this election cycle and will be to the Democrat’s advantage. There are campaigns, ads and Political Action Committees taking position. Polls indicate at about two to one in favor of nominating Justice Garland and the Democrats are making this an election issue. Some including the highly regarded Huffington Post already believe with Trump the House of Representatives is in play as well.

Now if this vacancy is around when Hillary gets there one doubts if she will renominate Garland. And if Trump is the President the Judge that he puts forward will not be vetted by anyone but him and he is to say the least unreliable. All this makes the McConnell line more and more self destructive but more significantly it epitomizes Obama’s new political smarts.

THE BUDGET, RYAN and the POTUS

Meanwhile in the House of Representatives GOP House Speaker Paul Ryan is quietly trying to rewrite American budgetary policy. He wants to cut spending in order to be able to lower the debt ceiling - that is the amount of money the Administration is able to borrow. Americans see this as a big damper on the economy. Polls show that the electorate are dead against the concept. In addition they oppose the tactic where the House of Representatives holds the budgetary process hostage. A coalition has been formed that is dead against the Ryan program. This  includes the Chamber of Commerce and Business Roundtable. According to MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow Obama is linking with business executives and even some Congressional Republicans to oppose the Ryan plan. To add insult to injury Maddow reports that the Koch brothers, a financial backbone of the Party, are against the Ryan plan as well. (Incidentally there is no news of whether a cent of the billion dollars the Kochs collected to support a Republican candidate has been spent). Maybe they like everyone else in the GOP are standing around waiting for a miracle. 

Not much public focus has been on this issue to date but it illustrates that there is not a faction of what was once the Republican Party that is not under siege. If Ryan and McConnell are still ideologues in a vacuum who on earth are actually representing what the Republican faithful really want. Trump has greatest claim at the moment. At this stage he has received roughly about 10 million votes out of an electorate of about 130 million and he is the frontrunner and therefore the de facto leader of the GOP.

Obama has played this potentially explosive monetary issue quietly. By so doing he has allowed a bipartisan coalition to evolve which wouldn’t have if he had been screaming from the rooftops. He has associated himself with new allies. Who would have ever thought that he would be on the same side as the Kochs? 

OBAMA TO RETURN TO THE STUMP

A reinvigorated Obama has come to terms with the fact that change can take place not only by grand gestures but progress sometime requires a slow and steady slog. While the Republican campaign screams inter alia that America needs to be made great again he has already decreased unemployment from ten percent to under five percent. He salvaged the car industry. In short he has delivered economically. His foreign policy may be controversial among the Washington elite but the electorate have no longer a stomach for adventures notwithstanding Trump’s grandstanding. 

He thus is in a strong position to help a Democratic candidate especially with the floundering GOP both in Congress and on the Presidential trail he represents the only stability in town.

There are stories doing the rounds that the POTUS is going to play a very active role in the 2016 election. Now the stump is his strong suit and he has not been there for sometime. There was a story, since denied, that at a Democratic meeting of donors he indicated that Bernie should cool it and concentrate on the opposition. It really has to be a matter of time before Obama comes out in favor of Hillary. He is more likely to do it if Bernie’s results cannot match his enthusiastic bluster. 

Obama has come a long way. It is hardly likely that he is going to allow his legacy to evaporate at the hands of an activist that has to remind him of his own good self. It is as unlikely that he is going to allow Bernie to do to Hillary would he did to her in 2008. It is after all his legacy that is at stake. He has learned that symbolism and activism is one thing but there comes a time but one has to deliver and it is the results that matter.