OBAMA LEARNS THE GAME

Barack Obama who hasn’t been known for his adept political skills is belatedly getting it. There is little doubt that whatever he is doing he is doing it right. His approval rating is at its highest for years, over fifty percent, which is about the same as Ronald Reagan the Republican G-D was in his eighth year. This eventuality is extremely important as the Republicans desperately wanted to make this election a referendum on Obama - why Jay H. Ell is not quite sure as they have lost two of those already. Hillary of course read it right and has been running for Obama’s third term from the get go. (Blog: Why Hillary is Running for Obama’s Third Term). All this by way of digression as the GOP are in total disarray and if there is going to be referendum about anyone it is going to be about The Donald. The question is why Obama is gaining in the electorate’s esteem at this lame duck point in time and what is his number one priority?

OBAMA’S OBJECTIVE  

Obama, at this stage has a principle objective and that is to build on his legacy. In order to effect this he needs Hillary in the White House and at least the Senate back in Democratic control. Thanks to Trump and the unravelling of the GOP he is halfway there already. However with a couple of deft moves on the political scene he has improved his chances of a Democratic President and at least the Senate becoming Democratic. His nomination of Justice Merrick Garland to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court created by the unexpected death of Justice Scalia has precipitated further chaos amongst the already helter skelter Republicans. His capitalizing on the business coalition that has formed against the GOP with their sterile financial stance is another point that he is hammering home. Also a fresh Obama has served notice that he is about to take over the 2016 election cycle. All this while he sucks up media oxygen with his historic visit to Cuba.

SUPREME COURT NOMINATION - OBAMA’S BIG GAMBLE

 The POTUS faced a recalcitrant  GOP leader McConnell who, on the announcement of the death of Justice Scalia, axed all his options by declaring that there is no way that he will allow the Senate to consider any Obama Supreme Court nomination. The next appointment has to await the outcome of the Presidential election. Obama then pondered his options. The Obama of yore would have used this opportunity to bolster up the base in the full knowledge that this was an exercise in futility anyway. This was the safe way to go. May as well play to the home base. He had any number of credible candidates that could have served the purpose. There was the female African American Attorney General Loretta Lynch who would have been a historic first whose nomination would have put pay to those that believed that he really hasn’t done enough for his African American base. Then there was Judge Sri Srinivasan who would have been the first South Asian to be on the Supreme Court bench a canny pick to juice up all the minorities. A name toted by the faithful was Senator Elizabeth Warren who would be just the business for the base that has become more and more liberal. Warren is a standard bearer of the constituency represented by Bernie Sanders who feel deserted by the Democratic establishment. Such a nomination would give credibility to a Obama/ Clinton team. 

However, Obama ignored the temptation to go that way and instead he took a gamble. By nominating a highly respected apolitical jurist, Judge Merrick Garland he put the Republican Senators in a quandary. While Garland was far from a Scalia, there was not a jot of judicial evidence that he would break the Supreme Court in a liberal direction. Here was an opportunity for McConnell to at least block a flaming liberal nomination and not hand the Court over to the liberal faction . But McConnell had already committed and recommitted himself. The base he was playing to is the sterile Trump and the Cruz base and the expected knee jerk reaction to anything Obama puts forward which has been his trade mark form of governing these past 8 years. In no time the vulnerable GOP Senators, particularly from Illinois and Pennsylvania were at odds with him. Eight to ten GOP Senators have indicated that they at least wanted to meet Garland. 

What made this whole issue even more prescient was the fact that the Supreme Court’s Chief Justice Roberts, two weeks before Scalia’s death, slammed the present confirmation process that focussed on politics. Roberts has been battling for some time to break the perception that the Court is a political institution. He argued forcibly that the criterion for elevation to the highest bench should be merit. In this regard the Chief Justice shares the same consensus opinion of Garland’s ability. He served on the same Court of Appeals as Roberts. Roberts in fact when asked about an opinion of his where Garland dissented commented to the effect that if Garland is in dissent against you you better be at the top of your game. There is speculation that Roberts may speak out on the Republican attitude to the process itself and specifically at their treatment of a fellow member of the bar who epitomizes judicial restraint. 

Virtually every Republican commentator has argued that the Senate should proceed with the Presidential nomination. In some cases the criticism of McConnell was code for “Are you guys nuts. Wait till you see who Hillary Clinton nominates?” George Will that doyen of GOP commentators was scathing. Not only did he castigate the McConnell crew for their ludicrous unconstitutional position, he pointed out that Garland’s record is not dissimilar to that of judges appointed by George W. Bush and Reagan. Kasich, the old GOP’s last standing standard bearer, told McConnell to go through the process. He claims that he would nominate Garland for the Supreme Court! McConnell then went even further in his obstinacy when arguing that he would not consider a Supreme Court Judge unless they were acceptable to the National Rifle Association. 

This failure to fill the court is going to play out long and hard in this election cycle and will be to the Democrat’s advantage. There are campaigns, ads and Political Action Committees taking position. Polls indicate at about two to one in favor of nominating Justice Garland and the Democrats are making this an election issue. Some including the highly regarded Huffington Post already believe with Trump the House of Representatives is in play as well.

Now if this vacancy is around when Hillary gets there one doubts if she will renominate Garland. And if Trump is the President the Judge that he puts forward will not be vetted by anyone but him and he is to say the least unreliable. All this makes the McConnell line more and more self destructive but more significantly it epitomizes Obama’s new political smarts.

THE BUDGET, RYAN and the POTUS

Meanwhile in the House of Representatives GOP House Speaker Paul Ryan is quietly trying to rewrite American budgetary policy. He wants to cut spending in order to be able to lower the debt ceiling - that is the amount of money the Administration is able to borrow. Americans see this as a big damper on the economy. Polls show that the electorate are dead against the concept. In addition they oppose the tactic where the House of Representatives holds the budgetary process hostage. A coalition has been formed that is dead against the Ryan program. This  includes the Chamber of Commerce and Business Roundtable. According to MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow Obama is linking with business executives and even some Congressional Republicans to oppose the Ryan plan. To add insult to injury Maddow reports that the Koch brothers, a financial backbone of the Party, are against the Ryan plan as well. (Incidentally there is no news of whether a cent of the billion dollars the Kochs collected to support a Republican candidate has been spent). Maybe they like everyone else in the GOP are standing around waiting for a miracle. 

Not much public focus has been on this issue to date but it illustrates that there is not a faction of what was once the Republican Party that is not under siege. If Ryan and McConnell are still ideologues in a vacuum who on earth are actually representing what the Republican faithful really want. Trump has greatest claim at the moment. At this stage he has received roughly about 10 million votes out of an electorate of about 130 million and he is the frontrunner and therefore the de facto leader of the GOP.

Obama has played this potentially explosive monetary issue quietly. By so doing he has allowed a bipartisan coalition to evolve which wouldn’t have if he had been screaming from the rooftops. He has associated himself with new allies. Who would have ever thought that he would be on the same side as the Kochs? 

OBAMA TO RETURN TO THE STUMP

A reinvigorated Obama has come to terms with the fact that change can take place not only by grand gestures but progress sometime requires a slow and steady slog. While the Republican campaign screams inter alia that America needs to be made great again he has already decreased unemployment from ten percent to under five percent. He salvaged the car industry. In short he has delivered economically. His foreign policy may be controversial among the Washington elite but the electorate have no longer a stomach for adventures notwithstanding Trump’s grandstanding. 

He thus is in a strong position to help a Democratic candidate especially with the floundering GOP both in Congress and on the Presidential trail he represents the only stability in town.

There are stories doing the rounds that the POTUS is going to play a very active role in the 2016 election. Now the stump is his strong suit and he has not been there for sometime. There was a story, since denied, that at a Democratic meeting of donors he indicated that Bernie should cool it and concentrate on the opposition. It really has to be a matter of time before Obama comes out in favor of Hillary. He is more likely to do it if Bernie’s results cannot match his enthusiastic bluster. 

Obama has come a long way. It is hardly likely that he is going to allow his legacy to evaporate at the hands of an activist that has to remind him of his own good self. It is as unlikely that he is going to allow Bernie to do to Hillary would he did to her in 2008. It is after all his legacy that is at stake. He has learned that symbolism and activism is one thing but there comes a time but one has to deliver and it is the results that matter.

OBAMA's BRAVE NEW WORLD

There is a need for a break from the nauseating Presidential Primaries which will drag on forever on the Republican side as Donald tries to reach the magic number of delegates and millions are spent to deny him. On the Democratic side Bernie has endless funds to carry on with his message till past June. Notwithstanding the fact that mathematically he cannot win the nomination he will receive partial reinforcement as he wins caucuses and the occasional open State. 

So onto Obama and his brave new world.

A fascinating, if rambled, review of Obama’s foreign policy has appeared in the prestigious Atlantic magazine.  It is unique in that one rarely gets such insights into the workings of a Presidential mind while he is still in office. It is fair to say that he has broken from the well worn US pattern of foreign relations. Obama is unapologetic as to his approach which on its face is concentrated on the Middle East, (Blog: Obama and the Middle East Mess), but in truth Obama has all but given up hope of resolving that region’s chaos which has worsened exponentially since he made his famed Cairo speech in 2008. He still maintains some priorities in that cauldron including Israel’s safety, Iran’s denuclearization and of course ISIS. He believes that America’s future lies more in Asia, specifically China, and Latin America than it does in the Middle East and Europe.

In general his approach was epitomized by the following declaration “I want a president who has the sense that you can’t fix everything. But on the other hand, if we don’t set the agenda, it doesn’t happen.” So America has to take the lead otherwise nothing gets done. The POTUS’s gripe was that other nations should be involved in taking action in their own interest especially the Muslim countries. He maintained “For all of our warts, the United States has clearly been a force for good in the world.”

ISRAEL IRAN NETANYAHU AND OBAMA

He has made clear in private and public that he has Israel’s back and considers it his moral duty to defend Israel which bearing in mind the public perception of his position should reassure the doubtful. (Even Netanyahu grudgingly thanks him from time to time for defense help including the dome). The major problem seems to be the personal animosity that exits between him and the Israeli Premier. The most recent incident in this ongoing saga is Bibi’s inexplicable snub to an invitation to the WhiteHouse.

This vendetta dates back to the very beginning of his presidency, in 2008, when after the Cairo speech the POTUS did not include Israel in his agenda. Of course this had been preceded by extensive reports from Bill Clinton and his people that Netanyahu believes he can dictate American foreign policy. Even so David Axelrod, Obama’s chief advisor, recognized that not including Israel was a mistake. From then on it has been downhill. On one occasion Obama complained to Bibi alleging that Bibi was lecturing him that he didn’t understand. He countered, “Bibi, you have to understand something,” he said. “I’m the African American son of a single mother, and I live here, in this house. I live in the White House. I managed to get elected president of the United States. You think I don’t understand what you’re talking about, but I do.” What had to be the last straw was when Netanyahu maneuvered with the GOP against Obama’s Iranian deal attacking it in the US Congress.

Obama believes, mistakenly Jay H. Ell opines, that Bibi could have effected a two state deal. While it can be argued that Bibi didn’t even bother to go through the motions and persisted with settlements which at the very least gave the Palestinians the high ground in the propaganda war - Hamas and an impotent Abbas have given no indication that they are ready for a meaningful solution to the decades long impasse. 

The POTUS further links the Iran deal with the security of Israel and maintains that he was ready to take out Iran if they would have continued on a nuclear path. He argues that he had Israel uppermost in his mind with the Iranian deal and that its conclusion is of great benefit to the Jewish State . Incidentally this is the conclusion of a large number of the Israeli security establishment. 

Now there is not too much new in the revelations as to Israel but he his feelings towards the Muslim states is another matter. 

OBAMA AND THE MIDDLE EAST MUSLIM STATES

In general Obama claimed, “That he was tired of watching Washington unthinkingly drift toward war in Muslim countries and the USA carrying the can”. Obama was particularly critical of Saudi Arabia, America’s longstanding traditional ally. According to the piece's author Goldberg, he is clearly irritated that foreign-policy orthodoxy compels him to treat Saudi Arabia as an ally. “The Saudis and other Gulf Arabs have funneled money, and large numbers of imams and teachers, into Indonesia. In the 1990s, the Saudis heavily funded Wahhabist madrassas, seminaries that teach the fundamentalist version of Islam favored by the Saudi ruling family”. He also is highly dismissive of that Arab State as a result of its policy on women.Obama has the advantage of the USA becoming energy independent and therefore is able to tell it as it is. 

His overall critique continued, “There is also the need for Islam as a whole to challenge that interpretation of Islam, to isolate it, and to undergo a vigorous discussion within their community about how Islam works as part of a peaceful, modern society,” he said. But he added, “I do not persuade peaceful, tolerant Muslims to engage in that debate if I’m not sensitive to their concern that they are being tagged with a broad brush.”

SYRIA

Obama feels that not getting involved in Syria’s civil war is one of his crowning achievements. While many advocated, particularly in the early days, that he support and arm the “reliable” rebels he was not going there to any meaningful extent. While one will never know who is right and who is wrong on that score the flood of criticism was reserved for his failure to live up to his line in the sand threat when Assad used chemical weapons. Goldberg outlines many reasons for his refusal to act upon his threat. Jay H. Ell has criticized this behavior of Obama before, particularly in relation to his 2008 Cairo address. He maintained that the POTUS should follow the Ted Roosevelt dictum - don’t preach unless you are able to follow through. Obama broke away from tradition by not delivering on his threat. The reasons for failing to do so included the impracticability of hitting the chemical weapons target and the carnage that would follow bombing chemical weapons. He unlike Hillary Clinton and the rest did not believe that just because he had threatened he needed to go ahead to show that you don’t mess with America. 

Obama points to the diplomatic efforts that lead the Syrian dictator to disassemble his chemical arsenal under the direction of Putin. According to Goldberg, “The arrangement won the president praise from, of all people, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister. The removal of Syria’s chemical-weapons stockpiles represented ‘the one ray of light in a very dark region,’ Netanyahu told me not long after the deal was announced”. The current position of Syria is that peace could be breaking out. Putin has removed most of his air force that bolstered Assad’s hold of Syria. All this in the wake of millions of refugees, hundred of thousands of deaths and ISIS still occupying a large chunk of Syria. 

Only history has a chance to sort out the merits of the Obama Doctrine in Syria.

MORE OF THE DOCTRINE IN ACTION

Obama besides breaking with the conventional foreign policy establishment has dumped American’s usual obsession with the Middle East and gone for broke on Iran. Not that he is starry eyed on internal policy changes as a result of the nuclear accords in fact he initiated sanctions when Iran sent off missiles. He is prepared to do America’s bit on ISIS in the Middle East but there is not even a whisper of sending ground troops. He again defies popular convention that blowing out ISIS in the Middle East will make the fatherland safer. In fact he does not regard the Islamic terrorist fundamentalist group as an internal existential threat. He scoffs at the suggestion having been quoted in the past as arguing that a few terrorists in a pick up truck are not going to take over the country. To the chagrin of the hawks he rates climate change a far greater threat.

What has passed unnoticed is his escalation of drones as an effective method to wage war against the terrorists. America’s armed forces have developed a coherent policy to weigh the risk of collateral damage versus the benefit of the attacks. He has risked plenty when the highest political and collateral risk is left up to him to make the decision. Again knocking out Osama was a gutsy ploy for which history will give him a lot more credit than he is receiving now. Al Qaeda has never been the same since.

He has not hesitated to break with closest of traditional ties telling David Cameron that he needs to increase his defense spending to at least two percent of the U. K.’s budget as America expected its NATO allies to do their bit. 

Then, out of the blue, came the rapprochement with Cuba. Reading that the political hysteria, that the anti Castro lobby normally generated, was subsiding he made moves to normalization. A grand gesture that fitted in with his ranking Latin America a higher priority than it has been afforded in recent history. His landmark trade deal with the Pacific rim, the Trans Pacific Partnership, highlights his focus on that area. He regards it as the most progressive trade deal in history and makes America a key player in the region to China’s chagrin. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY 

 Obama has quietly succeeded to break from the stereotypes of American foreign policy. It remains to be seen whether the next American President will continue the thrust or return to the Washington establishment’s perception of how America should run world affairs. Much is also dependent on factors outside the President’s control such as an attack on Israel by Iran. That would return the spotlight on the issue most Americans regard as their number one international priority. Putin too is a variable that can change the landscape. Although Obama has labelled Russia a regional power its Premier is determined to make his country relevant and a key player in the world scene. What happens if he has yet one more Eastern European territorial ambition?

G-D help us if it is unpredictable Trump at the helm. This alone should sway the election in favor of dull Hillary. But a flood of water is yet to flow under that bridge before a new President is inaugurated. 

AMERICA SPILLS ITS GUTS IN A BLOODLESS REVOLUTION

Nobody in the political hierarchies are fully getting it. The electorate has finally had enough. They are sick to death with the do nothing politicians. This far far more so on the Republican side than on the Democratic. With the qualified exception of Hillary and to a much much lesser extent Rubio and Kasich the citizenry are not remotely interested in the party hacks. The road up till now is likewise littered with political Presidential wannabes who have been kicked off the freak show that is passing for an electoral campaign. How much more proof is needed that this ship is not going to right itself on its own? It is on the trajectory that the voters are propelling it. If Trump goes Cruz will step in. His manifesto blasts the same message that government is useless. He was elected with that program. Bernie is still unlikely to beat Hillary but whatever happens he has a big enough anti incumbent groundswell support for him to continue right up to the convention and influence the Party platform. 

There is a revolution going on and the two that have tapped into it the deepest thus far are Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.

THE GRIEVANCES

The underlying message is the same - the little man is being played for a sucker and government is for the billionaires. There are barriers to the American dream such as class, race, minority status, gender itself and gender preference. Bernie and Donald are connecting with the white working class electorate in both political camps on the same vibration. The latter believe they can get nowhere as all the best jobs have been exported so that the corporation fat cats can make even greater profits and not even pay tax. The country is flooded with illegal immigrants that keep down pay rises. Trade agreements are made where the perception is that America is being shortchanged at the man in the street’s expense. Bernie wants to solve this by getting the jobs back and Donald’s priority solution is first kicking and then keeping the Hispanics out.

In the GOP the Evangelicals believe too they have been taken for a ride - they deliver the votes and Roe v Wade and Obamacare still stand. The African Americans are receiving the short end of the stick - the laws, particularly the criminal, are applied unfairly against them and their children are slaughtered by the police. 

THE MILIEU

America is undergoing dramatic change on the demographic front. The reality is that the minorities are becoming a greater percentage of the population. They are steadily gaining enough clout to make their presence grow politically. They are currently over thirty percent of the population and by 2060 they will be well over fifty percent. When Trump longs for “legal” immigrants everyone knows exactly what he means but the white Anglo Saxons have not been coming for a long long time.

Transformations are evident front and center of this very presidential endeavor. The current President is the first African American President in the Republic’s history while the Democratic frontrunner could be the first woman Commander in Chief. The current populist Democratic runner up Bernie Sanders, who has garnered even more Primary votes than Donald Trump, is a jewish socialist and the GOP runners up, Cruz and Rubio are first generation sons of Hispanic immigrants. The populist Donald is an iconoclast businessman and far from a conventional politician. The only other white male on the scene is languishing at the bottom of the GOP pile. So the electorate has already telegraphed the party hierarchies an anti establishment message and this is reflected in the candidates still standing.  

Another major observation is that although the body politic is becoming polarized it is on the whole more liberal. The millenials have made it so. The millenials thus far have not been put off that Bernie is a socialist making a break from the parents' cold war images. The majority of society accept the LBGT community and even the Supreme Court have sanctioned gay marriage. The evangelical influence seems to have decreased. Eighty percent of the electorate are ready to embrace a woman Commander in Chief. Having made these general observations Trump and Cruz are pushing the agenda to the right while Sanders and Clinton are veering to the left.

There is an urgency in this election as the thousand pound gorilla in the room is the fate of the Supreme Court after a half century of Conservative domination. 

All this taking place in a world that is changing by the minute in an America that is ambivalent as to whether they should be involved in the international turmoil. Obama has consciously abandoned America's role as policeman especially in the Middle East. A section of the electorate is responsive to the rhetoric that claims that America has lost its status and that there is a need once again to reinstate their supremacy. Trump is ready to make "America Great Again".

A DOSE OF REALITY

So in spite of the fact that Donald Trump is as phony and as off the wall as they come and Bernie Sanders is as impractical as anyone can imagine their platforms resonate and their core supporters cannot be persuaded to abandon them. In fact their support seems to be growing. Hillary has the advantage, at least in the minority electorate, of having delivered, which gives her the votes of the deciding demographic in this election. However, their youth are for Bernie. The minorities generally are proving to be the most sophisticated constituency understanding the difference between the politics of power and the politics of protest and activism. However, Hillary suffers from the fact that she is by definition part of the reviled political establishment and she has not extricated herself from the trade deals that are considered to be one of the reason for job loss. Her unexpected Michigan defeat has to be a wakeup call for her.

What continues to amaze Jay H. Ell is that Sanders is running on a platform that Obama’s policies are not radical enough. This not withstanding the fact that Obama, who for the first time for years has approval ratings of around fifty percent, was unable to move his agenda in Congress after 2010 and has all but stated that Clinton is the one with the political credentials to ensure progress. Then there is Trump, who has the most bizarre manifesto imaginable and who does not seen to take into account the fact that the GOP who currently control both chambers are unable to influence abortion policy or reverse Obamacare. How he imagines he will get anything done when he has made derogatory statements about the GOP leaders of the House and the Senate and they both have made it clear that they consider him as a liability as the Party nominee. As for Cruz he has declared war on the congressional leadership... 

LESSONS TO BE LEARNED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE

The question remains to be seen as to whether the massive anti Trump movement will prevent him from winning the nomination either in the Primaries or at the Convention. Whatever happens it is irrelevant as the GOP have lost this Presidential race. What is relevant is whether they have learned the lessons of this cycle to have a ghost of a chance to regroup. They have to accept that their electorate are in favor of social security and medicare for example and are singularly unimpressed that the GOP represent the one percent. Their protectionism of corporations as manifested, for example, in the no bid deal for Pharmaceutical companies for Medicare drugs, no longer passes unnoticed. The GOP Congress has done nothing to stop the special interests from exporting jobs and money outside of the country and this rankles. It is not a coincidence, too, that the two candidates gaining the most attention are not running their campaigns on Political Action Committee funds. The Dems, as a Party, have to realize that they are behind their voting constituency.

No longer can blue collar workers be taken for granted. The Trump backers were interested in jobs and increased wages and to date the GOP have only been interested in the employers mouthing theoretical platitudes about the negative influences of the minimum wage and the like. This criticism applies to a certain extent to the Democrats who had to have taken note that Hillary has not had the all round automatic endorsements of the Trade Unions. The blue collar workers that they have taken for granted for decades have taken a step back.The GOP need to address all these issues and generate position papers on poverty and the like. Thus far their only policies are to oppose the Democrats, abolish Obamacare and talk about givers and takers. 

Then the GOP has to do what Trump didn’t - treat the Hispanic and African American communities like equal citizens. Each election cycle their numbers grow and they are understandably insulted. Until the GOP right this wrong the Presidency has to be out of their reach.

The Democrats have to convince their blue collar workers that Bernie Sander’s message is not fringe to the party. Both he and Hillary need to tone it down a notch or two. The only way for Bernie to become the nominee is to win Illinois, Ohio and Florida for starters and then go onto win California and New York. In spite of his Michigan win that does not appear likely. In fact now that videos are surfacing with him extolling the virtues of Castro and Noriego the going will be heavier. If Bernie does win these Democratic Primaries he would not only be the nominee he would be the next President. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The American electorate are spilling their guts in a bloodless revolution. The working class in the electorate have said their say and they have used their vote to change the political landscape forever. The minorities have found their voices and are a ever increasing factor. To the Democrats credit at least this transformation has been accompanied by ideas and respectful discourse as opposed to gutter vulgar and insulting dialogue that has passed for debate across the aisle. 

However, at the end of the day, for any real progress to take place in the American legislative forum, cooperation across the aisle has to happen. The Republican Lincoln needed Democratic  Senate votes to abolish slavery and the Democrat Johnson could not have enacted Civil Rights without Republican Senators. More recently Tip O' Neill and Ronald Reagan and Newt Gingrich and Bill Clinton saw to it that the country functioned. 

In this bloodless revolution there is plenty that both sides agree on not the least of which is wealth inequity and the unbridled greed of corporate America at the expense of the working man.  It needs statesmanship and political skills to capitalize on what is happening otherwise no progress will be made and those who have voted for change will once again be disillusioned and angry. Maybe some should explain to them how politics works. (Blog: What Could a Trump, Sanders or Cruz Achieve as President ?).

THE REVOLTING TRUMP REVOLUTION

In July of last year Jay H. Ell blogged that Trump was in this for the long run and that he was facilitating the dissolution of the GOP. (Blog: Trump Comes Up Trumps). In December 2015 he wrote about “Trump’s Hostile Takeover of the GOP” and followed this up by arguing that he still couldn’t win the Presidency - the demographics were against any Republican candidate. Nothing happened in Super Tuesday’s Primary elections to alter these predictions. 

But as Trump does an obscene war dance over the body of the deceased Republican Party trashing their pitiful  standard bearers and proving that the future is no longer what it used to be, the question is whether he has merely rewritten Republican politics or has he shaken up the whole American political scene and the way the body politic reacts? Trump so far has comprehensively confounded conventional wisdom so can any of the past assumptions on his viability be utilized?

So all bets are off for conventional GOP politics forever. The issue is whether they are all off for the whole American political scene.

TRUMP THE UNCONVENTIONAL ALPHA CANDIDATE

There is so much that Trump has done that would have sunk any conventional candidate by his very offensive, and abusive behavior and his discriminatory, racist comments, to his almost total failure to produce coherent and detailed policy. This bizarre behavior has culminated in his tacit acceptance of support from the Klu Klux Klan.  He has played fast and loose with the facts and changes his position, with monotonous regularity, without batting an eyelid. He intersperses his one liners by smears of anyone and everyone who dares to criticize or oppose him, having developed the smear to an art form. Moreover his record of bankruptcies, hypocrisy, fraud and deception is obvious to anyone who scratches the surface. 

He is a one man band. But this one man band has connected with a section of society who are totally in tune with some or other part of his off beat beliefs and behavior. His loyal following is more interested in attitude than they are in substance. He appeals to those who are infatuated by authoritarians in addition to bigots.They see the world as Trump sees it but as other bystanders don’t. For example, the general consensus of the outcome of the pre Super Tuesday debate was that Rubio was the winner and Cruz was second. Trump the pundits agreed was thrashed. However Time Magazine ran a contemporaneous poll and Trump was the winner with a sixty percent vote. Now perception is reality and his supporters can hear or see what others cannot.

WHY THE ESTABLISHMENT FIDDLED WHILE THE GOP BURNED

Now it is common cause that the GOP Establishment did nothing to halt Trump. According to the New York Times of nearly two hundred and forty million dollars spent in the Republican Primary thus far, less than three million was directed towards attacking The Donald. Neither, till recently, have the candidates or Republican leaders done anything to stop what now appears a train hurtling to the nomination. The question is why?

According to political scientist Daniel Drezner it was the opinion of everyone that Trump would fizzle out sooner or later if left alone. It was inconceivable that he would march on. In addition in such a crowded field it was in no specific candidate’s interest to go for him. The GOP leadership was following their own written playbook namely that the “party insiders exercised significant control over the nomination process”. (What they seemed to have forgotten is that Trump had taken over the Party!). Their misplaced confidence in their own influence overrode commonsense as Trump dominated poll after poll and spoke to raucous humungous crowds. Maybe it was denial but if it was they were supported by the political scientists. No lesser group than the Five Thirty Eight, who have forecast election results with uncanny accuracy, rated Trump’s chances of winning the nomination less than him playing in the National Basketball Association Finals.

Now Drezner argues that the pundits across the board may not have been flawed in their analysis because their hypotheses were not fully tested since the GOP Establishment did nothing to stop Trump - i.e. did not exercise their supposed power. But as Jay H. Ell has been blogging the GOP were moribund anyway and all the charismatic media savvy super salesmanTrump was doing was filling the void. 

Any rate the panic is on and it is all systems go to stop The Donald.

STOP DONALD AT ALL COSTS!

According to the NY Times a meeting of the GOP Establishment met in New York in mid February to discuss how to stop Trump’s inexorable march to the nomination. There was every reason for panic as the conventional wisdom now was that he would be massacred by Hillary Clinton and even Bernie Sanders. He is considered such a liability and embarrassment that Mitch McConnell, in an effort to keep the Senate controlled by the Republicans, discussed the possibility of running negative ads against him. It was also suggested at this meeting that the GOP Governors should write a letter stating their opposition to Trump. The central thrust of the meeting was to try and unite behind a single candidate and the flawed Rubio was the obvious choice. However Kasich was not budging he was hanging on until Ohio. Nearly every GOP strategist worth his or her salt chipped in at this doleful Establishment meeting chaired by none other than Bush’s brain, Karl Rove.

Rubio and Cruz were obviously told that the Establishment would run cover for them if they attacked the frontrunner at the GOP’s pre Super Tuesday’s debate. That strategy added to the unedifying mess the GOP were in as insults and undignified gutter behavior became the mantra in the GOP debate and thereafter. Trump’s obscenities were now countered with allegations of him peeing in his pants. Trump was labelled the “con man”, Rubio “the croker” and Cruz, “the liar and cheat” - you pays your money and you takes your choice. Obviously Cruz had been given a reprieve as in Iowa the Establishment publicly came out against him. But in those days the unshakeable dogma was that Trump would die a natural death. 

Soon after the meeting the conservative American Future Fund apparently took a decision to run ads against the billionaire frontrunner focussing on his fraud in the Trump University debacle. Surfacing contemporaneously was his disastrous venture into the mortgage business that not only lost average Americans money it showed very poor business sense.

 Mitt Romney the 2012 Republican Presidential standard bearer, who has taken the lead in the stop Trump project ,hit the media querying Trump’s tax returns. He followed this up with a devastating all embracing attack on Trump labelling him a phony and a fraud whose promises were on a par with a worthless degree from Trump University. He summed it all up by adding that the billionaire has not the temperament or judgement to be President and his foreign policies would make America and the world a less safe place to live in.

Speaker Ryan, in the aftermath of Super Tuesday and Trump’s flirtation with KKK’s David Duke, announced that the GOP Congress was against white supremacy and that their nominee cannot pray on bigotry. He continued that the Republican Congressional members would run on well founded principles regardless of any other election races.

According to MSNBC, one day after Super Tuesday, more than thirty key Republican legislators, strategists or commentators had made strongly worded statements against Trump.

PLAN B

Now as the GOP could not unite behind one candidate Plan B has been put into operation. As there is no way they can stop Trump from winning the Primaries the objective would be to stop him getting fifty percent of the delegates and then unite at the Convention to defeat him. They are aiming for a brokered convention. Twenty - five percent of delegates to the GOP Convention are not elected by the “people” giving the Establishment a large say at the end of the day. So if Trump has not attained 1237 delegates of the 1800 or so available to the electorate before convention time there is going to be maneuvering to beat the band. In order to block him A Stop Trump Political Action Committee is actively going to run ads against him educating the Republicans as to what a bad businessman he is, the number of victims that lie in his wake from shady deals and that he is not a true conservative tra la la. Jay H. Ell believes if they are ultimately successful at electing an alternative candidate Trump’s supporters would go ballistic. At the very least they won’t vote. So the end result is the same - the Trump Revolution has succeeded and who knows what will follow.

Incidentally Trump is responding angrily to the establishment’s more and more overt opposition to his possible coronation. He told CBS News that the Republican Party are. “not treating him right”. He maintained that the GOP had not kept up their end of the bargain. He continued, “They have this lightweight Senator Rubio saying terrible things. As far as I am concerned they are defaulting on their pledge. I want to remind them that I represent millions of people that have voted for me”.

So one does not need to speculate what Trump may do if the establishment tries to maneuver him out of the nomination - he will take them on.

ACCEPTANCE?

There are some in the party that are accepting the inevitable and lining up behind Trump. Chris Christie the forceful Governor from New Jersey who dropped out of the Presidential race has broken ranks from the Party and endorsed him. Although Christie is very weakened and sustained a withering attack as a result of his decision he still represents the inner circle and they had to have been hoping that he would line up behind the Establishment choice. Then the Governor of Maine has done a complete about face on Trump and seconded Christie. Jeff Sessons from Alabama is the first Senator to join team Trump. Newt Gingrich, a former Speaker of the House, who lead a Republican come back in the nineties and was a Presidential frontrunner for a short while in 2012, has counseled the GOP that they had better come to terms with a Trump candidature. 

IS TRUMP REALLY TOAST IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

Now in case anyone has forgotten the selfsame GOP Establishment, the pundits and political scientists that forecast Trump’s premature demise in the Primary nomination contest are predicting his slaughter in a Presidential race. This certainly isn’t Trump’s viewpoint nor that of his supporters so let us examine the evidence for and against his candidature in a Presidential election. Jay H. Ell thus far has regarded him chanceless as a result of the demographics. (Blog: “Can Trump Win the Presidency?”). According to the GOP’s own working papers the Republicans cannot win the Presidency unless they get a sizable chunk of the Hispanic vote. Bush 43 got forty - seven percent and won. Romney garnered twenty - seven and lost even though he had a majority of white votes. Trump has alienated the Latino demographic beyond repair. He would be lucky to register ten percent. Then he has offended every other demographic from women to LGBT’s. He has declared war on the Muslims. The polls show that the Independents are dead against him. He has half the Republic Party retreating. He has an over fifty percent unfavorability rating....

So where is Trump going to get the votes to win a Presidential election?

TRUMP’S POSSIBLE NEW CONSTITUENCIES AND CHALLENGES HE FACES

Trump argues that all the demographics support him, including the Hispanics, but he has to know that he would be up against it.  It is also really impossible to evaluate his claim that the “Reagan Democrats” are returning to him. It appears highly unlikely. He has to lay claim to a new large demographic that will influence the outcome.  Bear in mind too that he would have his work cut out to achieve this as his white vote will have to also make up for the minorities.The only possibility is in the Mid West which has a large population of white males in blue collar occupations, many of them who are unionized. The latter may be seduced that The Donald can really force the Apples of this world to bring home the jobs. 

Then there is all that garbage, of Trump’s inglorious career, that is the hot hands of the Democratic researchers that will hit the fan. The workers and investors that have been victimized in his wake will make poor old Romney’s exposures look like a Sunday walk in the park with George. Trump has only received a taste of the vituperation that is about to follow. Already operatives are forming new Political Action Committees. This activity is springing up all over the place. The owner of the Chicago Cubs baseball team, for example, has donated three million dollars for advertisements to run against him in Illinois. The problem for the Establishment is the only candidate who has a ghost of a chance to beat Trump is Ted Cruz who in the words of Senator Graham, a doyen of the GOP, the choice between Trump and Cruz is between being poisoned or being shot.

Now so much can happen between now and November that could alter the scenario. However, it has hard to make a case for Trump not receiving an historic thrashing. As matters stand the establishment GOP have made it quite clear where they stand on his bigotry and incoherent policy making decisions.

WHITHER THE GOP

There is also the distinct possibility if Trump does not receive 1237 delegates by convention time then the 607 “bonus and Party leadership” delegates out of the total 2,472 votes will weigh in at the brokered convention and havoc will ensue as Trump is replaced. In a way Trump’s best bet is to be robbed by the Establishment and spared the humiliation of being a big time loser. The GOP, as Lindsay Graham has now maintained, could even nominate Cruz and go down with a bigot whose reputation is reasonably intact and the Party will suffer less damage.

Jennifer Rubin, the Washington Post’s prolific columnist and supporter of the GOP, believes that everyone should come to terms with the fact that Trump has already reeked havoc, dump him and start rebuilding the Party. This is really the heavies. Even Goldwater had the Party behind him in his historic defeat.

Whichever way you look at it the Republican Party is brain dead and some - one should turn off the machines.