THOSE IOWA CAUCUSES (CIRCUSES) EXPLAINED

The circus tents have all folded and they have all moved on to the next venue. This was the greatest rendition ever of the quadrennial Presidential Primary event that is presented in the State of Iowa in the United States of America. Even when the cast and the show itself is not as outlandish and off the charts as this one was, it is a road show that garners world wide attention as it is the official start of the ongoing unique reality show, the winner of which will be the leader of the most powerful and rich country in the world. 

The chief takeaway messages of the show is that Donald Trump was dished out a brutal first lesson in politics 101 - you need a ground game in politics and his omnipotent bubble has burst. From now on he needs to adapt or die. The  biggest loser on the night was the Establishment GOP who had taken the unusual step of supporting way out Trump rather than Cruz. Hillary has to be satisfied in sneaking a win. This, particularly, bearing in mind that Iowa has a disproportionate number of young Democratic students and the fact that forty - three percent of the Democratic electorate profess to be Democratic Socialists. Iowa was Clinton’s nemesis last time when Obama and Edwards from the left  thrashed her into third place. She now knows that she will go into South Carolina where the race really starts, won 1 and lost 1 rather than 0 and 2. Sanders signaled that he was in this for the long haul and if anyone has any memory of the “Occupy Wall Street” movement engineered by students this is the continuation.

Iowa once again confirmed that it was the representative of the extremes of political opinions in the USA. The GOP traditional candidates Bush, Kasich and Christie combined registered seven percent of the Republican vote. This fact emphasizes the significance of Hillary’s effort in garnering fifty percent of the Democratic vote. The GOP Primary was dominated by outliers Cruz and Trump with Rubio who is yet to make up his mind where he stands, third placed.

Before actually analyzing the results it is useful to look at the freak show that is the Iowa caucus.

WHERE IS THE REALITY SHOW AND WHO ARE THE AUDIENCE

The theater itself is a nondescript Mid Western State with a population of three million of whom only a few hundred thousand are the participants in the quaint form of democracy that Iowa utilizes in selecting its nominees for the Commander in Chief. The process is not the traditional ballot box affair but rather plays out in the form of “caucuses”, in close on 2,000 precincts. There the faithful gather and make their choice. The Democrats sit and debate the issue for hours while the GOP after cheerleading speeches just record a vote. The latter count up all the votes in the state in the normal fashion and he has the most votes wins. The Dems don’t use that obvious method of deciding who wins rather they have a complicated system called “delegate equivalents” where the precincts share out the delegates apportioned to them. To illustrate the oddity of it all was an example featured on TV  - Hillary won a big victory in one precinct by fifty - three percent to forty - eight percent and yet both candidates received the same number of delegates. How many times this happened and to whom who knows?

The make up of the Iowan population is a throw back to the mid twentieth century demographics of the country - ninety percent white and as such, in and of itself, the result is usually a poor predictor of who will ultimately emerge as the leader of the “Free World”. However it can have profound consequences as to the outcome of the nominees of the respective parties. The demographic itself does a disservice to both parties. The Dems have a far left constituency to contend with. The Republican Party suffer as the body politic is not representative of the American population. The latter has a decidedly different makeup and  have a sizeable body of non caucasion souls who are pivotal in the outcome of the race.

Fairly or unfairly the media turns the world inside out on the basis of the Iowa caucuses with its few hundred thousand voters. The mythology of its significance was ramped up a million notches when it heralded the start which turned Obama from a celebrity to the subsequent American President.

So onto the review and whether expectations were met and most importantly the significance of what transpired in this rural outpost of the great American continent.  

IMPORTANCE TO CLINTON

As powerful as the Obama appeal was in 2008 the consensus in both the Clinton and the President’s camps was that it was organization and getting the players to the caucuses that played the major role in his success rather than his  charisma per se.  Hillary chose to pump flesh and go from diner to diner while Bernie relied more on the movement. Hillary as a result of bitter experience produced a ground campaign that was more comprehensive then Obama’s. She had a captain in all eighteen hundred of the precincts whereas Barak only had twelve hundred. She needed too as the Iowan Democratic demographics did no favor her campaign in 2016 anymore than it favored her in 2008.

Hillary also has had to deal with the problem that the more you are around the more they will find something to have a go at you. Even more frustrating for a reformer politician is to counter the radical rhetoric from an opponent that you know has no chance in effecting what he claims.  She has avoided the temptation to get paternalistic and rather cheered on the enthusiasm Sanders has engendered. (Oh for the Westminster model for selecting the party leader).

Even though her win was razor thin, barring a bizarre Federal indictment, Hillary has to still be the odds on favorite to win the nomination and then the Presidency. Ironically and this whole scenario is full of irony at the end of the day the outcome mattered least to Clinton. Her firewall after New Hampshire is almost impenetrable. In the words of David Axelrod, the zen master behind the Obama era, Democratic primary voters can afford the luxury of voting for Bernie in the full knowledge that he cannot ultimately cannot win the nomination. Hillary has to be happy that she escaped the bullet that was flying at her and can move to South Carolina with the primaries at least split.

IMPORTANCE TO SANDERS

Jay H. Ell believes that an Iowa victory was far more important to The Berne than Hillary. It would have given him a head of steam to add to his expected victory in New Hampshire which is in his backyard. But how on earth can he win enough delegates thereafter is a mystery. He has to imagine that if you take on the role similar to Obama it is written in the wind that your fate will be the same as his. As he didn’t win Iowa the magic spell has been broken and the reality of hard politics is soon to be upon him.

Even if he had had a really big win Jay H. Ell does not rate his chances to be the Democratic nominee. His frustration is palpable as he cannot understand why any progressive would want to support Hillary when he is offering so much more. Why would the labor unions support her and not him? Why don’t the minorities recognize that his message is universal and in the long run offers more then Hillary’s measured manifesto? His message that Clinton is in the pocket of Wall Street is not really resonating. His argument that she isn't progressive is also a hard sell when Obama maintained she was the one person who was able to translate progressive policies into reality. 

Even at this late stage he cannot comprehend how politics works and the difference between being an activist and a politician. Never the less the Democratic Party owes him a debt of gratitude for focussing the party platform on the economic inequity issues that are central to the American debate. He will be around for the duration as he has the money and support to continue and his presence is of inestimable value in framing the debate.

IMPORTANCE TO CRUZ.

Cruz had he lost would have been in a far worse boat politically than a losing Sanders. He has staked out the Republican Conservative position. He worked the state as hard as Hillary did and his organization has produced results. He has laid it on a line that he is the Conservative hope for all to see and hear. However, where does he go from here? He has the full weight of the Republican establishment against him. They may not be able to anoint a nominee but can certainly block one. His future begins or ends in South Carolina.

Never the less his beating of the bombastic billionaire, defying the polls, has to be the story of the night. This only marred by the allegations against him for "dirty tricks" by claiming that Ben Carson was leaving the race and the votes should go to him.

IMPORTANCE TO THE DONALD

Trump has been the focus of the script of the 2016 Presidential elections. He has demagogued his way to the forefront of every media medium. He has insulted and made outrageous xenophobic statements appealing to the lowest common denominator in the party. He has deviated from the Party Line in economic areas that jive with the blue collared base of the faithful. Social security and Medicare he has labeled sacrosanct and he will take on the corporations in their outsourcing of jobs and the drug companies on their monopoly on drug pricing. He has shown an uncanny empathy for where the electorate is at and in effect has refashioned the GOP to his message.

So ironically the candidate who is leading the national Republican race by double digits had the most to win or lose in these caucuses. With his loss the spell of his omnipotence has been broken. He is a loser by his own definition although he will spin it as if he had won.

So this race was very important to Trump. He now has to redefine his candidature in terms of “you win some you lose some” rather than “the polls show that the whole of America wants him”. In fact the polls show he is the candidate with the largest negatives.

IMPORTANCE TO RUBIO

Rubio made more than a respectable showing giving him a credible chance to win the Republican nomination. In another world the nomination fight would have been between him and Jeb or him and Kasich or Christie. The latter three establishment governors are all hoping to become the  party nominee after New Hampshire.  The good Rubio showing in Iowa will give him a bump there and he could become the Romney of 2016 who hung around, in second place, till the others all dropped out. The money will now pour in for Rubio.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

So the elephants, the clowns, the ringmasters and the crew have packed up and moved on to New Hampshire. Tiny white New Hampshire, Bernie’s neighbor, has to be soundly in his column. Hillary has a good ground game and her objective is just to be competitive. While Bernie gets a bit more negative Hillary cheers him on as she needs the youth if she becomes the nominee. 

The contest is far far more important to the GOP which is in a shambles. There is a last gasp effort by the Christie, Bush and Kacish, the middle of the road GOP crowd. Trump has another chance to translate his poll numbers into reality and this race is far more important to him then he begins to realize. Another loss and even he can't argue that he is not a loser. Cruz and Rubio have got to consolidate so as not to confirm that Iowa is the freak show everyone accepts that it is. White New Hampshire also has its craziness where it does not matter which party a citizen is in as you can chose either primary to vote in. Nearly half of the State’s voters are in fact officially independent. Traditionally this primary has produced surprises.

South Carolina, Nevada and Super Tuesday then follow and after that it could be all over bar the shouting. Bernie is not a Barak and his appeal has to be limited. The only impediment to a Hillary Presidency lies outside of the political field. On the Republican side no candidate has produced a manifesto that could appeal to the changing demographic of America and it is a wide open. 

The presidential election production, after a short run in the off Broadway, whites only, venues of Iowa and New Hampshire, finally gets into Broadway prime time and that is where the rubber hits the road.