Tom Brokaw, the legendary NBC anchorman, summed up the current frenetic, bizarre, topsy turvy presidential race by exclaiming that he never thought he would live to see a presidential candidate who mouths obscenities and has proposals comparable to Nazi Germany as well as an unabashed socialist leading in the polls. Trump and Sanders have been drawing audiences of tens of thousands in what Brokaw calls a climate of extremes. It is in this milieu that Michael Bloomberg, former Mayor of New York, who is politically an Independent and a billionaire, has confirmed his intention to consider a run in the 2016 POTUS election. He has not denied the salient points of a “reliable report” that maintained that he would only join the race if the candidates were Trump or Cruz versus Sanders and that he would decide by March the first. In this media driven and sometimes scripted presidential circus Bloomberg’s declaration has been largely ignored and more significantly so has the rationale behind it. The media for the moment are concentrated on the issues du jour and are not into in-depth abstract analyses that might detract from the excitement of the horse race and thus interfere with their ratings.
WHO IS BLOOMBERG?
Michael Bloomberg, a former Mayor of New York, is a far more successful businessman but a less flamboyant aspirant than Donald Trump. Bloomberg through his media company is, according to Forbes, the sixth richest man in the world. He is also politically ambitious and comfortable with effecting whatever it takes to reach his ends. He unceremoniously resigned from the Democratic Party and joined the Republican Party to ensure his election as Mayor of New York. He then once ensconced as Mayor became an Independent. Unbelievably this cynical flip flopping has not impacted on his credibility or standing. These party changes of convenience would have a short year ago put paid to any candidates prospects but all Bloomberg would be doing is joining club members Sanders and Trump.
To a large extent his preeminence is due to his success as Mayor of New York where he whittled away a $ 6 billion deficit while generally extending or maintaining social programs and remaining a social liberal. He was criticized from the right by increasing property taxes to pay for it all but generally has emerged unscathed after a three Mayoral term of America’s biggest city where he had consistently had high approval numbers. He has been most prominent in forming a country wide coalition for gun control and unlike Trump has systematically funded philanthropy.
He also has the advantage of not needing any big donor’s money already a big plus in both Trump and Sander’s campaigns. In many ways there are other similarities between a Trump and a Bloomberg candidature. He straddles both party’s policies although he has lost far less of his Democratic credentials than the Donald has.
HOW WILL HE DECIDE?
Now Bloomberg is no fool. He knows the abysmal track record of third party candidates. He is not about to spend a year of his life on a fruitless exercise. He has also been commissioning his own polling. He is aware that he is going to have to make a decision as to whether he is in or out much earlier than he would like to. His decision will be largely based on upcoming primary contests. The next two Primaries in the Democratic race will be the first real test as to whether Bernie’s spell translates to the minorities. Thus on the Dem side the Nevada and South Carolina races include the Trade Unions, the Latinos and African Americans and if they switch from Clinton to Bernie in great numbers then a red flag will be raised. Likewise if Rubio, Bush and Kasich cannot dent the “terrible” GOP twins Bloomberg will go on to red alert. In addition on March the first, Super Tuesday, there is a representative sprinkling of all sections of the electorate that are on display in the Midwest with its blue collar Democratic electorate, the South with its more conservative white Democrats and swing states like Colorado and Virginia. Here Bernie has yet to be tested. In addition Bloomberg will be on he look out as to whether the Trump Cruz lock on the GOP nomination comes unstuck. If, as is likely, the GOP are sticking to Trump or Cruz his sensors will be lighting up all over the show. Hillary winning, unless convincingly, will not totally reassure him as there is a worry about her that will be discussed later, that might influence his decision.
WHAT IS MOTIVATING HIM?
Interestingly enough, notwithstanding Bloomberg’s liberal social agenda, his general fiscal conservatism still allows sections of the desperate GOP establishment to ally with him if they are faced with a Trump, or a Cruz or the possibility that a Sanders could be elected. It is an open secret that both traditional parties and their establishments are more than unhappy about the prospects of a candidate that they perceive could loose the race and in their coattails deliver reverses in the Congress elections. This anxiety is far greater in the Republican Party which already has had its very soul ripped out by Donald J. Trump who has successfully engineered a hostile takeover. The thought of a rampant Cruz has already unleashed the party faithful to unprecedentedly attack him during the Primary run off. The behind the scenes nervousness about a Trump Presidency is leaking out everywhere. There are those that have shared their anxiety with the popular Republican TV show host Joe Scarborough and have confided that if Trump is the candidate they would back Hillary.
Amongst the patricians of both Parties are a significant group who take who becomes the President of America pretty seriously. They really don’t want a bragging, xenophobic, lewd, misogynistic lout being the face of the USA. Nor do they relish the thought of an anachronistic one message ideologue who they believe represents the very antithesis of the leader of the Free World in the White House. Also the Democratic establishment know that Sanders agenda is not going to go anywhere and both sides tremble at the unpredictably and chaos that would be engendered by a Trump Presidency.
It is also well known that there has already been some strategic support of various candidates in order to eliminate competition for the main event. Hillary claims that in the New Hampshire Primary Bernie benefited by at least $6 million GOP Political Action Money. There has to be little doubt that Trump and Cruz must be also getting a boost from the opposition as well as they will be more easily beaten than a Rubio, Kasich or a Bush.
Bearing in mind all these realities can anyone believe that patricians of both parties have not been talking to Michael Bloomberg? He doesn’t need their money as he says he would spend a billion dollars of his own should he run. But that wont stop PACS backing him. The Koch brothers have a billion which they are itching to spend but there is no way they would want a Trump or Cruz in office. Should the choice be between Hillary and Trump, and realistically that is what is staring them in the face, they would probably sit this one out as would several other GOP donors.
CANDIDATES RESPONSES
Generally speaking the Presidential wannabes respond to a Bloomberg challenge in terms of the current status quo with the changes that need to have taken place to allow for his entry not having taken place. Candidate Trump says come over and play in the knowledge that the former Mayor will take more from the Dems than him. Sanders recoils in horror as he needs more competition for liberal votes like a whole in the head - “We don’t need another billionaire in the race. The country is in danger of becoming an oligarchy”. Hillary tells it as it is by arguing that Bloomberg will only step in if she has to step out.
But there are hidden narratives all around. Bernie has not conceded the Hillary e - mail controversy. He says it is a serious matter that is being investigated by the law but he is not making an issue of it. (For the moment that is). Hillary has held back on the Israeli card where Bernie is out of sync with the rest of the country. When the appropriate electorate is listening she will give the emotional topic a full go.
When Bloomberg first made his announcement it was whispered in the media that he did so because he may have heard from his law enforcement contacts that the FBI were going to present a case against Hillary. For the moment this is off the radar as Hillary is sticking to her guns that none of her e - mails were classified when she was the recipient or sender and this post hoc classification is absurd. She backs that up by challenging the investigators to let the world see them. Her claim gained a gigantic leap in credibility when the investigators announced that both Colin Powell and Condy Rice, Bush 43’s Secretaries of State also had their private e mails classified retrospectively. In addition even if the FBI believed there was malfeasance there is no way the Justice Department would indict Clinton. But the whole production may be weighing on Bloomberg’s mind.
COMES DOWN TO REALITY
It really is spoiling to be a Hillary Trump confrontation. Hillary does not engender empathy. With the modern media both social and conventional it is no advantage having been around for a long time. But the demographics favor her and all things being equal the ball should bounce on her side of the court. However, she is fearful that Bernie is beginning to resonate in her constituencies and there is evidence of that particularly in Nevada which too has a quaint caucus system. Adding to the mix is the fact that it seems to be written in stone that there are undying and immovable chunks of support that The Berne and The Donald own. The former’s fans don’t care that his message is impractical increasing the Federal Government by fifty percent and the latter are unmoved that the Donald mouths the most obscene and xenophobic messages and his programs with decreased taxation will run up a fourteen trillion deficit in ten years. Bloomberg will obviously compute all of this in making a decision.
But should Bloomberg enter his persona moves from the abstract to the real and he thus can be assured of a tumultuous welcome and non stop coverage by the media. The latter are rapacious for ratings and a new slant on the proceedings provides no better platform to engender even more endless speculation and punditry. Presumably there would then be a three man race between Trump, Sanders and him. He will start with his nine percent support but the way the cookie will crumble and with the media so skilled at engineering a horse race before long it will look like a statistical three way tie. Jay H. Ell is not sure what this scenario will solve as the country will be split three ways instead of two. It is also difficult to predict the outcome and it would really depend on how large the hardcore immovable Bernie and Trump bases are. Bloomberg would have his work cut out but he, as his reign in New York illustrated, is not easily cowered. Unlike both Trump and Sanders he has successfully managed and led a city with a population bigger than most States in the USA. He also may be able to resonate with his squeaky clean reputation and middle of the road mantra. He has the advantage, if it is still an advantage, to look and sound like an ordinary politician.
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