While the electoral mood seems stacked against the status quo as evidenced by the Republican race, (Blog: Can Trump Win the Presidency?), and the unexpected serious challenge mounted by the outsider in the Democratic Primary, quixotic Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton has wrapped herself around Barak Obama’s record and Presidency. While the GOP candidates are sniggering that she represents the Commander in Chief’s third term she just wallows at the prospect of being just that. At present she is the only leading candidate not advocating a revolution of the legislative process, professing to want to consolidate and advance what Obama has achieved.
The mood of the country is anti incumbent and Obama is now very much part of the established order. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have tapped into the activist mood and in some areas even resonate as one voice. The issue paramount in the minds of the tens of thousands that flock to the rallies of these standard bearers, is to reject “politics as usual”. They are tapping into their respective party bases manifest intense anger at the failure of their elected representatives and their Party leaders to reflect the wishes of the electorate.
OBAMA PART OF THE PROBLEM TO BOTH BASES
Also, in case Hillary needs reminding, Obama’s approval rates hover around the mid forty percent. While Obama has been slammed from the right for changing the direction of the country he obviously appears far too conservative for a large section of the Democratic base. Oh my oh my only eight short years ago he was hailed as a gale of fresh air. There is nothing like a good dollop of elected office, sauteed with the realities of the workings of politics, to bring one back to the field. It is fair to say that the way he has been vilified by the GOP from the word go and their almost indecent hurry to frame their whole campaign message as if they were running against him should frighten any of the Democrats to steer clear of this blast. Not Hillary, however, she is up front and center in the eye of the storm.
All this contradicts rather than explains why Hillary, who is the other half of the most politically savvy team in America, is only too ready to run as a continuation of the Obama era. Why not rather just not appear loyal to the leader while taking pains to nuance all issues so as to be distinct from him thereby getting the best of both worlds?
THE OBAMA COALITION
In spite of all that effort by the GOP in 2008 and then again in 2012, to their disbelief, Obama was elected and re elected. There was a coalition of groups that held firm to deliver and redeliver the Presidency to him. Obama appears at the end of the day to have failed to meet the expectations of one of his coalition constituents, the fired up youth, but that is only one of his constituencies. The chief constituencies to whom he has more than exceeded expectations are the ever more important and growing minorities, the Hispanics and African Americans. They will not desert him or whoever takes over his mantle. The female and LGBT groups have already backed Clinton and have to be more than satisfied with the Obama years. So Hillary just has to keep reassuring them all that she is on message and that is nearly the whole battle won. Remember too that only a minority of white voters supported Obama in both elections. So all the pundits that wax eloquent about the Republican field and their chances need reminding that once again they have totally disregarded the existence of the Hispanics and other minorities. In effect the candidates have ignored the GOP 2012 post election report which recommended tailoring their message to these groups if they wished to win.
BUT WHY CAN’T BERNIE WIN THE NOMINATION?
It is patently obvious both parties underestimated the anger out there. So the Democratic Bernie, against all odds, is challenging in Iowa and will probably win New Hampshire as a result of his undiluted message. Hillary cannot appear genuine by trying to outflank him on his radical solutions. She can and does challenge him on how on earth he can translate his message into legislation and how he will find the money to pay for his programs. To the faithful however, too much of that sounds like the language of a reactionary. But she knows that what plays to the Democratic base in the tiny freak shows of Iowa and New Hampshire will not resonate in the next bunch of Primaries that follow in the South and the South West where her message is more likely to ring true.
Bernie’s message has not been tailored to the minorities needs in the rural minuscule state of Vermont, where he has hung out and operated almost exclusively for decades. The total population of the Commonwealth of Vermont is just over 600,000. In this liberal haven there are about 7,000 Hispanics and a similar number of African Americans. So Bernie has not carved out distinct platforms for the needs of those groups. Jay H. Ell believes Sander’s general appeal cannot be enough to the very specific needs of the Obama coalition constituents. It is no use talking about the needs of the ninety - nine percenters if you are about to be kicked out of the country. “Black Lives Matter” is another movement that has only recently been on “The Berne’s” radar. Again if you believe that your children are at risk of being indiscriminately shot by the cops that has to rank as the priority. Thus each demographic has distinct needs and too much focus to these at this late stage, by Bernie, will smack of opportunism. Vermont is so laid back that Bernie’s support for guns has not been an issue and he his naivety on the significance of the subject on the national scene has underscored his lack of experience in the real world. Hillary has since way back had distinct planks in her manifesto for all the demographics and hence their support.
While opinions are not unanimous as to who won the most recent debate in South Carolina, Hillary must be more than pleased with her performance. The debate was sponsored by the Black Coalition and Obama’s agenda was mentioned by Clinton far more often than usual while Bernie stuck to his general stump speech. While the pundits waxed on the fact that Hillary did not halt The Berne’s march to Iowa and New Hampshire they payed no attention to the National Polls that came out the next day that still put Hillary more than twenty percent points ahead. As Jay H. Ell points out below Clinton can lose these two states and still win comfortably.
NOW WHAT?
The Obama coalition will hold for a general election but even he needed more support. Hillary would eventually have to win back the activists that have propelled the erstwhile Sanders to prominence. She has moved to the left as a result of his candidacy. It is fair to say that there is not the same level of acrimony between the Democratic contenders that has been evidenced by their Republican counterparts and should she emerge victorious Bernie’s supporters will back her.
Clinton can argue that she represents the practical application of the shared ideals of the Democratic Party, is on message and moreover she can deliver. Clinton is in a better position to prevent a chunk of the whites, who whatever they represent, are always called “Reagan Democrats” from not switching to the GOP. To a certain extent her Secretary of State experience and the fact that she is considered more of a hawk than most Democrats will help cut down the bleeding if there is any.
But then too there is Bill. It is undisputed that he is associated with the only period of prosperity in America since Reagan and for those who want to play the Monica card it didn't work when the issue was hot twenty years ago so why should it have any traction now. She is gradually introducing hime into the campaign and nobody will argue that he still is adored by a broad section of the electorate.
Finally, Hillary has unprecedented support and endorsements from nearly all the Democratic legislators, Governors and Party officials. She has close on five hundred in her column and Sanders has less than five. Although that does not make much difference early on it will later in the nomination process and will ensure that the party’s organization is well greased to bring out the vote in the Presidential election.
SO WHAT IF BERNIE…..?
Jay H. Ell could be totally wrong and after rousing wins in Iowa and New Hampshire “The Berne” can set the primary process on fire and move triumphantly to the nomination. There are several pundits who believe that Sanders will win the Dem nomination. Their argument is really that this is a replay of the Obama Clinton race in 2008 where Hillary was also odds on favorite to win and Obama just blast passed her with a more progressive agenda. They believe lightning can strike Hillary twice.
There are many differences to the 2008 scenario that are being ignored by the pundits who are crying de ja vu. Not the least of the contrasts are reflected in the Bernie and Barak distinct personae. To liken the two as peas in a pod is a bit of a stretch. (Blog: Can Bernie be Another Barak?”) Hillary’s organization was weak then and even though she suffered devastating blows early on, including South Carolina, she strengthened as the campaign went on and had Michigan and Florida been given their full weight of delegates the race could well have taken a turn in her favor. At the end of the day Obama had fifty - two percent of the Democratic delegates to Clinton’s forty - eight percent. Also Obama had double the “super delegates” thereby giving him more party establishment support than her and putting him over the top. The latter gravitated to Barak when it appeared that he would win. Obama’s organization and ground game was far better than Hillary’s. None of this applies to the current race.
But still what if….
The current polls show that Sanders will beat any of the GOP potentials. However nobody accepts these as reality nor do any of the GOP candidates regard him seriously. At the recent GOP debate Kasich burst into laughter at the suggestion and his prophesy was the Republicans would win all fifty states against him. Democratic Party operatives have finally conceded the presence of the socialist elephant in the room. Led by Senator Claire McCaskill they have warned that the Republicans are ready with their hammer and sickle ads should Sanders win the nomination. And they have well over a billion dollars available for the Presidential campaign. According to another Democratic legislator the only constituencies he would resonate with are the liberal universities. Should Bernie be the candidate the full wrath of attack adds against socialism, as it is defined in political philosophy, not by him, will descend upon his head. It will be merciless and his honeymoon in Russia will be featured among other morsels. It is hard to imagine him getting passed it all. The conventional wisdom among the Democratic establishment is that his candidature would not only lose them the Presidency it would kibosh the current trajectory to winning back the Senate and making deep inroads in the House of Representatives.
Hence the Democratic establishment are nearly as anxious about Sanders as the GOP are about Trump, (or even worse Cruz). There is no guarantee that Sanders could mobilize the Obama coalition who have fully committed to Clinton. They just may stay at home. Incidentally, if the match up were to be between the Trump and Sanders it would probably be the first time in history that both parties’ nominees were not life long card carrying members .
AT THE END OF THE DAY
So Jay H. Ell will stick to his guns. The concept of an Obama third term seems the safe way for Hillary to go and if Bernie’s activist supporters need any reminding Obama was their man not so long ago and Hillary’s mantra fifty years ago, without the labels, was more or less where Bernie is today. Obama was slowed, as all transformers have to be, by the political process. Hillary is in a position to get far more done as she is part of the political culture and her sojourn in the Senate was marked by respect on both sides of the aisle. But hold onto your seats as the media salivate and report both the nomination races to be neck and neck. It is what they aimed for in the first place and they are all about ratings. (Blog: “Trump, the Media, Ratings and Reality”).
There are two probable outcomes in the Democratic nomination race.
- The race will continue well into the year. “The Berne” is not going to go away and Hillary’s firewall becomes thicker and thicker as the race progresses. The Vermont Senator is being reinforced by the exited response he is evoking and the large sums of money that his supporters are donating. His message of the financial and political domination by the one percent and the role big money plays in the electoral process is in many ways the overarching cause celebre of our time.
- This race will reflect whether the Democratic electorate wants to make a definitive statement against the failure of the political process or whether they believe that enough progress has been made and it needs to be consolidated. (The Republicans have already definitely decided that they want to register a protest with no real thought as to how politically the policies they wish to enshrine can be introduced - hence Trump, Cruz, Carson).
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