CAN TRUMP WIN THE PRESIDENCY?

Donald J. Trump has burst on the political scene and strides it like a colossus dwarfing all and demolishing anyone who dares to challenge or criticize. He has dominated the narrative for over six months with outrageous policy statements and verbal abuse, in the process revolutionizing the political scene by trashing any semblance of decency in the public arena. In so doing he has achieved two monumental feats - the destruction of the Grand Old Republican Party and attaining first place, by far, on every National poll. Two questions are foremost in everyone’s mind - why and how did it happen and can Trump win the “Republican” Party nomination and then the Presidency?

WHY? IT’S THE IGNORED GOP BASE STUPID

The why is a relatively easy to answer. In short the base of the Republican Party have finally grown tired of being taken for granted by the GOP Establishment. The latter have only payed lip service and acknowledged token acceptance of their base’s needs and preferences. Before continuing, there is not one GOP base but a number with differing needs. While these overlap they fall into a number of distinct categories depending on how they rank their objectives.

 Firstly, there are the blue collar non college graduate whites, mostly male, who were hardest hit in the recession and whose wages in the recovery have remained stagnant. The patricians have ignored this demographic and pushed their own agenda favoring themselves by prioritizing  low taxes for the rich and otherwise protecting wealth. The GOP  economic theory is trickle down economics. They have done nothing to stop the exporting of jobs nor seen to it that this group get their fair share. Other arrogant disconnects include the fact that the Party line is to, inter alia, get rid of social security and medicare which this group need more than ever. However the GOP white elderly male group can easily be persuaded that their woes are due, in part, to the illegal immigrants and rhetoric against them resonates.

Secondly, there are those who believe in the traditional fiscal view of the GOP which is low on spending and taxation across the board. They believe that the party’s fiscal policy has degenerated into the tax and spend liberal mantra of the Democratic Party. This group reached the end of their tether following George Bush’s drunken spree which included an open ended check book for the pharmaceutical companies in the Medicare prescription entitlement and the financing of his misguided military adventures. This sector coalesced into the Tea Party. They interpret the Constitution like Supreme Court Judges Scalia, Thomas and Alito. They are constructionist and unashamedly believe that America is still in the eighteenth century. They equate money as free speech.

Thirdly, there are the social conservatives who for practical purposes are the Evangelicals plus some others .They are heavily into anti abortions and contraception, are anti gay and pro marriage. Social values are this sector’s priorities and they go hysterical about the government funding of Planned Parenthood, for example, as the latter perform a small number of abortions and dish out tons of contraceptives. 

HOW THE CANDIDATES SHAPE UP TO THE BASE’S NEEDS OR WHY TRUMP IS LEADING IN THE POLLS.

Every indicator or survey points to the fact that the base does not believe it is being represented by the Party. The GOP control Congress and the Governorships yet their supposed agenda is neither being furthered by them or is partially being threatened by them. Thus any representative in Congress or in Government has their work cut out to convince the GOP electorate that they can meet their needs. The apparent failure of the latter objective accounts for the early demise of Governors Walker, Jindall, Pataki and Senator Graham. It is the reason too why Governors, Kasich, Christie and Bush, (he also by being a Bush epitomizes all that the base detest), are battling at the bottom of the pile. It has severely handicapped Senator Rubio and almost totally axed Senator Paul, although both are considered Tea Party appointees. 

So being in government so tars every GOP Presidential wannabe that anyone who has not been elected and therefore cannot be blamed for failing to deliver is at a distinct advantage. So Carson, Trump and Fiorina are the natural pool to draw support at this stage. There is one other wannabe, who although a Senator, that falls into this category and that is Ted Cruz. The Texas Senator from the word go has made it clear that he considered his Senatorial election as the go ahead to chuck the bums out. He has filibustered legislation, called the leader of the Republican Party in the Senate a liar and generally ingratiated himself in with the out crowd. So now we know how this all happened so let Jay H. Ell explain why, for the moment, it is Trump.

WHY TRUMP IS THE CURRENT LEADER

The other factors that are so uniquely American have helped the candidature of The Donald who leads in the national polls on average by twenty points. Trump is an icon - a celebrity in his own right and has been the public eye for decades. In addition to connecting to the hitherto ignored key blue collar white male demographic, he has every other demagogic attribute needed to rally the masses. He exudes reassuring confidence and is the living proof of the axiom that no publicity is bad publicity. He is media savvy to the point of genius - who else could seriously consider charging the media for the free publicity they were giving them. He is an entertainer first and foremost and in America the entertainers are the aristocracy whether on the sports fields, appearing on the screen of any size or garnering the news. Although a patrician himself he has successfully projected the image of being a self-made man who has fulfilled the American dream by sheer handwork, initiative  and guts - so just follow him and you too can do it. The second area that he has genius qualities in is thus salesmanship. To be able to sell his bill of goods you have to have something really special.

 He has demonized the minorities and made them scapegoats of his base’s failure to thrive. His supporters are not losers they are victims. He has the solution to them rising, phoenix - like thereby making America Great again. He will not take away Medicare and Social Security so he is not an ideologue at his electorate’s expense. He will bring the jobs back to America and short of calling the Apples and other manufacturers traitors for outsourcing he will get them back into the States with their high paying jobs. He is able to encapsulate all this into one liners. Simplistic solutions to complex problems are the order of the day. The answer to terrorism is keep the Muslims out! The solution to the job squeeze is deport 11 milion "illegals" and build a wall so they can't come back. In addition he verbalizes what citizens sometimes think in their darkest moments thereby validating them. There is no filter.  He is the antithesis of being politically correct which is code not only for women’s rights but minority rights and affirmative action. 

He also plays fast and loose with the facts. He is not embarrassed by obvious lies or incongruence. For example his previous largesse to all political persuasions is explained away that as a businessman he gave money to politicians of every side including the Clintons and they all delivered when he needed favors. He embellishes this theme by explaining that the politicians are all stupid and he was just using  his business savvy. He will employ all these skills to get all Americans rich again and rescue the country from the throes of bankruptcy in the process This non stop vaudeville act is punctuated with smears, bullying and insults to all opposition within and without the Party. His refusal to apologize for blatant lies or patently ridiculous explanations is interpreted as strength.

Now for the hard part. Can the Donald win the nomination and if that the Presidency? 

THE GOP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION - TRUMP A SHOO IN?

As mentioned there are two other components in the GOP base that Trump is not a natural for, namely the true fiscally conservative Tea Party group and the Evangelicals. In order to get over the top he is going to need them. So while some of the Tea Party demographic are attracted to his anti establishment style they cannot be persuaded that he is fiscally sound. Then there are the all important Evangelicals who might not buy his smoke and mirrors approach to their needs. He is a Presbyterian he claims again and again and at a recent meeting in Iowa he read from the bible. All this hardly rings true in relation to his three marriages and beauty pageant businesses. He really will have his work cut out to convince the Evangelicals and the Tea Party faithful that he is the man. At the end of the day, all the pundits believe that when this all shakes out someone or other will cobble together a majority of the bits and pieces of the GOP that Trump has smashed to ribbons and become the GOP candidate. 

For the moment Trump marches on feeding the base red meat and potatoes. But politics is much like entertainment. In the latter you need bums on seats and in politics you need voters at the polls. To get the voters to the polls you need organization and an infrastructure. You need transport to ferry voters to the polls. You need canvassers and organizers to visit the nursing homes to secure the absentee votes. It is a massive slog. It is one achievement to fill the stadium to elicit a ra ra ra but another to arise them out of their slumber and get them to the polls. This is where the rubber hits the road. 

TRUMP SHOWING INSECURITY

Now The Donald is bit short on all of the above and his campaign is based on the message carrying him over the hustings. However with the Primaries around the corner he is exhibiting some unfamiliar insecurity. At his press conference, just prior, to reading the bible in Iowa he elaborated on his latest publicity stunt - attacking Hlllary though Bill’s twenty year old indiscretions. (This is not a good one liner as Clinton’s ratings were at the highest during the impeachment and the good Donald himself is on tape saying how ridiculous the impeachment was.) The Donald also announced that he was going to spend $35 million in ads. He was not sure whether he needed them as he was heading the polls but he argued that he shouldn’t take a chance. He then pointedly repeated again and again not that he would win Iowa but he expected to do “very well”. 

Trump has to be aware that Cruz is better positioned to get  Iowa’s evangelicals and Tea Party to the caucuses. In Iowa you have to sit a whole evening in a caucus room to register your vote. Now losing Iowa is no big deal in the grand scheme of things. However the fear is that it will give momentum to the winner in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Trump has already trashed the editor of the influential New Hampshire Republican newspaper, The Union Leader, for favoring Chris Christie as the Republican nominee. (New Hampshire is the arena where an establishment backed candidate might emerge). 

As things stand at the moment Trump is way ahead everywhere except Iowa and the big unknown is how many of those who support him in the polls are merely sending a message or will they back him to the hilt and if they do will it be enough?  Surveys show that those that are committed to The Donald cannot be budged.  Nevertheless, Jay H. Ell shares Trump’s newly found doubts. The chickens may be coming home to roost. There are all those skeletons such as his cash donations to Hillary who he is currently targeting, the support for Obamacare and abortion rights. Then the unintended consequences of his Muslim rant resulting in recruiting videos for terrorists. It may just become too much. Hence Jay H. Ell believes Trump is preparing the way to back out should he come short. He will still declare victory saying that he smashed the Republican Party, which he did, sacrificing himself in the process. Initially Trump was leaning towards anointing comrade Cruz. A good indicator, however, that he has decided to go the whole hog is that he has begun a birther smear campaign against Cruz who was born in Canada.

So what happens if Trump does become the GOP presidential nominee?

TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT?

This has to be the longest shot in history. The bookmakers rate him a five to one chance to become President. So if this is your conviction call Vegas now and become rich. As Obama showed - you cannot win the Presidency without at least forty percent of the Hispanic vote. The Hispanics after Trump’s xenophobic wail have made this a one issue election. Trump by dragging the Party to the right has hobbled Republicans who have realized the importance of this demographic. Candidates like Rubio and even Bush, who is married to a Hispanic, have hardly been able to lead with this issue. So on that demographic alone he is caput. Romney got twenty - seven percent of the Hispanic vote and it would be a miracle if Trump got ten percent. Bush 43 garnered forty - seven percent. In addition for this election there are going to be at least a million more Hispanic voters registered. And this demographic is only the beginning. There are all the other minorities, the women, the youth and the LGBT’s that he has gratuitously demeaned.

If Trump does win the GOP nomination he has to face the fact that half of America believe he would be an embarrassment. The GOP moneyed Establishment who to date have not spent a penny would carry on holding back or even back Hillary. The GOP machine would hardly go full throttle to elect him and certain conservatives are already disavowing him.

So while it is still an open question who will get the GOP Presidential nomination, Jay H. Ell believes it is not an open questions as to whether The Donald will have to downgrade and move into the WhiteHouse should he be the GOP nominee.