MANDELA’S SOUTH AFRICA - ONE MINUTE BEFORE MIDNIGHT

South Africa is on the cusp of joining the sad club of third world basket cases. A steady diet of corruption and cronyism has heartbreakingly eroded the inheritance bequeathed by Mandela. The desperate plight of the new democracy has come to the fore as a result of President Zuma firing a Minister of Finance who disagreed with what appeared to be ridiculous proposals for Government expenditures in a cash strapped fiscal situation. Mercifully President Zuma only entered the scene five years ago and cannot undo the vast post apartheid progress which resulted in the creation of an embryo black professional, business and middle class and a boundless tourist industry. However the remarkable fairy tale ending to apartheid has been systematically obliterated by policies that smack of the cynicism, crookedness and abuses of power reminiscent of Robert Mugabe, Zuma’s role model. Mugabe who has appointed himself President for life in Zimbabwe has laid waste to that country while building a life style reminiscent of the Marcos’s of the Philippines.  Zuma was forced to backtrack on his most recent dictatorial fiat, as a result of the market collapse that his actions precipitated. However following the whole bohaai, in a rare moment of spontaneity, he laid bare his prejudices, paranoia, ignorance and philosophy in a speech which had been ostensibly slated to calm the upheaval that his actions had precipitated. Those who have followed the remarkable redemption saga of South Africa are relying heavily, once again, on forces for change and sanity to intervene.

ZUMA’S CONTINUING MALFESEANCE

 Zuma’s malfeasance is nothing new and had preceded his elevation to power. He barely escaped prosecution for racketeering and corruption following the trial of his financial advisor Schabir Shaik who was sentenced to 15 years for bribery and corruption. It was in that trial that Shaik testified to the effect that he procured a bribe for Zuma of 500,000 rands in order to secure the purchase of frigates for the South African navy. While the whole affair was tinged with political overtones in every direction, the decision of the National Prosecution Agency to drop corruption charges against Zuma was highly controversial to say the least. 

The shadow over Zuma has continued and Shaik’s release from prison after only serving 2 years of his sentence was attributed to Zuma’s interference. In addition allegations of shadiness swirl around his relationship with the Gupta brothers, an Indian entreupeneur family. An infamous incident, referred to as Guptagate, where a government military airport was made available for guests from India who were attending a lavish wedding, brought out allegations that Zuma, whose two sons are employed by the Guptas, was totally in their pockets.  From judicial appointments to spending massive sums on his private residence controversy continues to rage around his Presidency. So the current scandal emanating from his arbitrary dismissal of his Finance Minister is just the latest in a never ending litany of questionable decisions.

ZUMA’S MAN MADE ECONOMIC CRISIS

 The weeks following Zuma’s unceremonious axing of Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene heralded ruinous economic consequences in South Africa including the downgrading of governmental bonds to just above junk bond status by rating agencies Fitch, Standard and Poor, and Moody, a stock market collapse and a thrashing of the rand on international currency markets. These seismic movements followed the firing of the Finance Minister Nene for opposing a shady deal to buy airbuses through a third party middleman. Moreover it was alleged that the promiscuous President was having an affair with the head of South African Airways who had negotiated the deal. The FW De Klerk Foundation further alleged that Nene had vetoed the purchase of a Russian nuclear reactor at a cost of a trillion South African rands.  Zuma then replaced Nene with a sycophantic nonentity with no real financial expertise only to have to backtrack under unprecedented political and business pressure, and supplant him within a few days with a former well respected Minister of Finance, Pravin Gordhan.  Zuma normally a very savvy politician, not even having informed his cabinet of his plan, found himself front and center of a storm that evoked nearly three thousand protests within the country,

INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE

International commentators rightly interpreted this sequence of events not as isolated pique by the narcissistic South African leader, but as a logical outcome of his style and philosophy of governing. The London Economist entitled a piece “Try Again The Beloved Country” a play on the title of Alan Paton’s iconic novel “Cry The Beloved Country” which was just that - a cry for help at the injustices of apartheid that triggered the half century long haul to end the totalitarian regime. The Economist article detailed the worsening economic indicators that have accompanied the Zuma reign. It recalled the initial fiscal discipline of Mandela’s ruling African Nationalist Congress, (ANC), and contrasted it with the current corruption and cronyism which is endemic and takes its lead from the highest echelons of government starting with Zuma himself. The latter scandalized the country when he built himself a palace with public funds. Black empowerment as defined by Zuma turns out to be code for handing out jobs, contracts and favors to party allies. All this translates, the Economist article continues, into nurses stealing from clinics and Union bosses giving jobs to teachers that don’t even show up. It concluded by commenting that, “South Africa deserves better”.

NEW FINANCE MINISTER CALMS THE MARKETS

Gordhan with his acceptance speech did much to restore, for the moment anyway, the jagged and raw nerves of the financial markets and losses were partially reversed. He commented on current officialdom's behavior, “It is time that individuals or groups of individuals stopped playing with governmental entities as if its a personal toy from which you can extract money when you feel like”. He echoed the sentiments of the business and opposition political constituencies when he maintained, “The prime responsibility of public institutions was either to contribute to the economy, provide a service or contribute revenue to the Government. We do require a bit of reflection as to how we want to manage State resources”.

ZUMA HANDLES THE PRESSURE

It is exceedingly unlikely that Gordhan has the will or power to change the direction of Zuma’s projectory. Broad based and influential appeals to the central governing body of the ANC to remove Zuma were met by blank refusal and laudatory affirmations of his leadership. It is naive to believe that a hierarchy so beholden to him would dare make a move. If Zuma is ultimately to go it will need a concerted behind the scenes effort to garner a majority of the 400 delegates that make up the ultimate decision making component of the governing party.

He has to have lost ground as according to the South African media the pressure from within was exerted by Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, Secretary General of the ANC, Swede Mantashe and three other senior members of the ANC establishment. They were responding to senior bank executives which industry took the brunt of Zuma’s folly - the bank index dropping nearly twenty percent in a day.   

Meanwhile everything Zuma has said or done in relation to the current crisis and the circumstances leading up to it that has provided naught for anyone's comfort. At the time of axing Nene he inexplicably paid tribute to Mugabe who is the poster child for graft, crime and brutality on the continent. That obsequiousness would have passed by unnoticed had he not produced a rant following the appointment of Gordhan that shook the nation and those in the world that were interested.

ZUMA’S RUBICON SPEECH

Much like in 1985 when former apartheid Prime Minister P. W. Botha was scheduled to make a speech which had been billed as a turning point in South Africa’s race relations to be coupled with an announcement of the release of Nelson Mandela, Jacob Zuma was also en route to sooth frayed nerves arising out of the crises that he had precipitated. While Zuma’s audience was tiny the state sponsored television was there to slavishly broadcast every word. Botha basically told the world to go to hell and the current South African President did likewise departing from his prepared script to go into a long diatribe on his world view. Both these Presidential pontifications have come to be known as Rubicon speeches signifying the fact that their unambiguousness pointed to there being no return. While Botha displayed his arrogance and his defiance that nobody could pressure him, Zuma rambled on mainly incomprehensibly to deliver the same message. Where he could be understood his ignorance was astounding and his philosophy of life scary. He opined that Africa was the largest continent in the world in which all the other continents could fit in. Having completed the geography lesson he went onto history where he claimed that this is where civilization started. “Paul was an African that wrote the bible in Turkey” he continued. 

Zuma then detailed the slave and colonial past of the continent and how “We decided to fight for our freedom”. He mentioned that he was part of the “struggle” which indeed he was having spent ten years on Robben Island with Mandela. Having established his credentials he then went on to explain his economic theories and more or less maintained that the colonialists were still controlling the show through economics. Continuing with this theme he argued that, “Those with economic power would kill you”. To add credence to the fact that several of his advisors are still card carrying members of the now quaint Communist Party he explained that the value of a commodity had nothing to do with supply and demand but rather it was related to the amount of labor time. 

SOUTH AFICA’S FUTURE - THERE HAS TO BE HOPE!

There is every indication that Zuma and his cronies are committed to go the way of Mugabe and it will take a determined effort to stop him. Armed with massive Constitutional powers it is going to take a firm resolve and effort to oust him. There are high expectations vested in Mandela’s choice as his successor, Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa. The latter was elected to that position by the 400 delegates to the ANC Congress so he is not without support. In addition South Africa has a tradition of opposition and fighting for civil rights. Apartheid did not just go away on its own. So many of the activists that caused it to collapse are still in the vanguard of opposition. The Democratic Alliance a political party that is steadily gaining black support controls the Cape Province and could well make further inroads, particularly in the towns, in the upcoming municipal elections. A left wing Marxist Leninist group known as the Economic Freedom Fighters, who up till recently were regarded as fringe, now represent about seven percent of the electorate, claim that they are benefiting by the Zuma meltdown. They too have to be factored into the equation. 

There is also a vast network of non governmental organizations, some a hangover from the apartheid days such as the Institute of Race Relations, others more recent such as De Klerk’s Foundation and a vigorous internet opposition, for example, all that have a vested interest in not allowing South Africa’s hard-earned venture into democracy to fail. The far reaching internal protests in response to Zuma's behavior also illustrate the mood.

It also has to be recognized that South Africa has a sophisticated first world banking, financial and mining infrastructure. It's promise to be Africa's breadbasket can still be fufilled. In spite of a steady bleeding of talent it still has more university graduates than the whole of Africa put together. So there is hope.

Matters have really deteriorated since December 2012 when Jay H. Ell blogged, “Exit Mandela: Cry the Beloved Country Part 2”. South Africa’s standing in the world was still high even though Zuma was three years into his rampage. Zuma, unhappily, like Mugabe does not seem to care what anyone thinks. Mugabe has still enriched himself even though Zimbabwe has seen inflation of thousands of percentage points. So if you define black empowerment and advancement on the basis of how rich and powerful you and your friends are who cares about the rest of society and whether the world thinks your bonds are junk or not? 

 All in all a tense situation and indeed a Rubicon moment for both sides. It was best epitomized by Nobel Laureate Archbishop Tutu’s plaintiff cry when the Zuma government, at the behest of a new paymaster China, denied the Dalai Lama a visa to visit the country - “I never dreamed that I would pray for the defeat of the ANC”.