THE TROUBLE WITH HILLARY

It is fair to say that amongst most non Democrats Hillary Clinton is hated with a passion. It is not a question of whether, it is a question of degree. (Blog: Benghazi - Why the GOP Don’t Care).  Jay H. Ell believes this bile far exceeds the usual political animus. In some ways this vituperation is incongruous because she is a middle of the road Democrat who persuades the party’s left that she is their best bet. Now remember the venom spat towards her is rarely in a vacuum - there is always an argument backing the assertion even if the response is way over the top. 

Why is this? Some of this anger is sheer frustration because as the land lies she is odds on favorite to win the Presidency. No serious political analyst has a doubt that this will be the outcome. It is also fair to say that her adversaries just refuse to accept their reality that such a “bad” person with such “hypocritical” attitudes is such a certainty. The more they think of this the angrier they get. 

Part of their problem in coming to terms with the American world and what politics  - especially American conciliatory politics is really all about. That coupled with the failure to differentiate between the role of an activist versus that of a politician in effecting the political process adds to the confusion and rage. The politician’ s personality plays a role and Hillary, it is fair to say, just does not connect, with the GOP voter. There is also the issue of the composition of the American body politic in the twenty - first century that the anti Hillary club refuses to come to terms with.

AMERICAN POLITICS  AND THEIR POLITICIANS.

American democracy is pretty unique. There is a meaningful dissipation of power. The country’s leader, the President, is elected directly by the body politic and not by the elected legislators. The majority of the legislators in both Houses of Congress need even not be of the same party. Now at the best of times politics is about compromise but even more so in America. The President, who is not the choice of his parties legislators, needs to persuade them as well as those of the opposite party, especially if they control one or both of the legislative bodies, to effect his legislative agenda. 

One doesn’t need a doctorate in politics to realize that the President with the most experience, knowledge and influence of the process and its players will get the most done. Lyndon Johnson, with transformative social legislation such as Medicare and ground breaking Civil Rights legislation requiring Republican support, as his conservative Southern Democrat “Dixiecrats” deserted him, will ultimately be shown to be the most effective President of the modern era. It really is just him and the Roosevelts, since the earlier trail blazing greats, that have got it done on a grand scale. It has to be no coincidence that prior to assuming the Commander in Chief Position he was the most powerful wheeler dealer in Congress, having served decades in leadership positions. Johnson’s major problem was his lack of foreign policy knowledge and it is his Vietnam disaster that has obscured his legacy. Modern day examples of moving the chains of government along are Ronald Reagan and Democratic Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill and Bill Clinton and Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich. 

Now compare Hillary with her 50 years experience starting by leading a Republican student group to be a highly involved First Lady to a Governor and a President, a Senator who worked with and was respected by both sides of the aisle and an individual who effected monumental work as Secretary of State where she worked with every foreign leader imaginable, to the array of crazies, nonentities, mediocrities, and neophytes fighting for the Republican Presidential nomination. There isn’t a comparison and the fear from the opposition is not that she won’t get anything done rather the panic is that with that resume she will move the liberal agenda on guns, climate change, inequality of wealth distribution and the like “deviously” and effectively. Then the dread is that the country will then be changed irreversibly and become a sickly pale shadow of a stagnant European State.

So Hillary has the experience and the where with all to effect legislation. Likewise the electorate haven’t forgotten her husband and the prosperity he brought them in office while simultaneously moving the Democratic agenda. There is a mythology that has been built up about the "teflon" Clintons that they are invincible and that too strikes angst in the hearts of the right.

POLITICIANS AND ACTIVISTS AND HYPOCRITICAL HILLARY

One of the misconceptions when weighing up the merits of prospective political office bearers is confusing activists with politicians. The latter need votes as well as the acceptance of their policies while the former just need a following. While both want to change society for the better the activist can be a purist and the politician needs to compromise and may have to accept just a piece of the pie. Martin Luther King was an activist so he could tell it undiluted. Lyndon Johnson to get King’s civil rights agenda passed wasn’t so lucky. He had to make promises, compromises, twist arms and trade favors to get the Pastor’s agenda through. It is well nigh impossible not to be compromised if you are in politics. There is always a thin line between conceding and even changing one’s position and outright opportunism. Also there is the surrendering on the less significant issues for the good of the grand scheme. That sadly is politics and in the American system this type of “give and take” is more essential due to the way the system functions. To put it less genteely it is very hard to remain a virgin, for long, if you are working in a brothel. 

Just as an aside there are very few activists who can remain purists and then they are designated as statesmen. Churchill was one in so far as he had one mission, fight fascism and eliminate Hitler. Once he had done that he did not have a post war platform and was removed from office with the slogan, “Thank Churchill but vote Labor”. President Mandela was not much interested in political maneuvering once he had achieved a non racial South African Constitution and retired after one term in which he was just a unifier leaving the day to day politics to his Prime Minister. But these are anomalies both in stature and the exceptional circumstances they operated in. 

So Hillary’s long path is strewn with compromising “adjustments” she has had to make either through the changing of her convictions, (Republican to Democrat and in her perception as to the merits of the Iraqi war), the changing circumstances surrounding an issue, (Trans Pacific Trade deal or Keystone pipeline), or those that she rationalizes as being necessary for the greater good for the moderate philosophy she claims to represent. In fifty years there has to be a stack of these “adjustments”. These inconsistencies and anything else that can be dumped on her are the rationale for the merciless hammering from the opposition that she is subject to. Benghazi and all that has been dredged up related to that fateful event, and there has been a ton as there has been 20 million dollars spent in investigations into her, is the topic du jour. A field day is being enjoyed by her tormentors with the massacre itself, her e- mails, her server, her friends’ e- mails and on and on. There have been mistakes related to that episode but these pale into insignificance when juxtaposed with the Republicans naked misuse of power “to bring down her poll numbers”.

So far her well prepared, logical and dignified response to the criticism heaped on her has merely given her an opportunity to demonstrate how well fitted she is for the job. The body politic recognize, albeit unconsciously, the way politics works and are giving her the thumbs up. Hence her poll numbers have increased rather than plummeted . There are the smears that she is ambitious  - show Jay H. Ell a politician who isn’t and that she is mean and bitchy. The latter jabs are sexist and resound to her favor particularly among women. It is ok for a male to be tough but a woman is a bitch apparently. There is also is a certain sector who harbor a complete aversion to a woman as Commander in Chief. It is true too that for a large part of her career she has appeared to lack the common touch but there has been an improvement.

So all in all her compromising political persona has done her more good than harm even against the neophyte trio of Rubio, Cruz and Paul who have not been around long enough to be too “inconsistent”. Obviously the perception that politico Hillary’s career “adjustments” are a fertile ground for attack is not shared by the electorate even though her opponents still persist that this disqualifies her from the Presidency, Still the whole concept of living up to an activist’s standard must still give her nightmares as Barack Obama basically beat her running as an activist pointing out her political mistakes.

 THE AMERICAN ELECTORATE COMPOSITION AND THE MISLEADING MEDIA

The fact that the current election is taking place in the rapidly changing demographic of the American electorate is conveniently denied by the media as it has been since 2008. There is a failure to come to terms, to this day, that first McCain and then Romney could never have won, given their stance on immigration and that applies even more to today’s GOP hopefuls. Romney received twenty -  seven percent of the Hispanic vote. It is estimated that for the anti Hillary candidate to move into the WhiteHouse double that number is needed. This would exclude every Republican challenger starting from the current leader in the polls, Donald Trump. The possible exception could be the highly talented Marc Rubio, who is an Hispanic and who has one foot equally plonked in the GOP Establishment camp and the other in the Tea Party conference. He has quite a few problems but the relevant one here is that he has sold out the Hispanics in order to be competitive in the GOP Primary. He has ditched the compromise Immigration Bill that he co sponsored in 2013 and even the most conservative Hispanics have gone on record to say that they are not interested in any Republican Presidential nominee who changes his or her line for the General Election. It is a gateway issue for them.

To a certain extent one cannot blame the Republican electorate for not coming to terms with the demographic real world as they are aided and abetted in their denial by the media. In order to keep viewership and ratings up the media need to create an ongoing horse race with all its excitement and alleged uncertainty with regard to the Presidential election. Jay H. Ell has blogged extensively about this practice the latest piece being, “Trump, The Media, Ratings and Reality”. This circumstance occurs across the media political board and the proponents also include the sources that the GOP electorate gain their news from, the Rush Limbaughs of this world and even the Fox News crew from O’Reilly to Hannity to the latest craze, Megyn Kelly all of whom weigh the chances of the candidates and parties, ad nauseam, in a vacuum far from the American demographic real world. 

The upshot of this as it has played out in the last two elections is frustration and animosity that was deflected towards Obama in 2008 and 2012 and now on Hillary in 2016. More so on Hillary as she is an unashamed politico whereas Obama was an activist and everyone still had hope that he might save the world. Put another way they think that Hillary is an out an out opportunist and does not really care about the Hispanics and just is cynically championing them for political gain. So that the demographic is an issue thatis really her fault and they hope against hope that the Hispanic electorate will see through her and back the Republican nominee, all of whom in one way or another will have told the Hispanics to go jump across the border, but at least is sincere!

So the demographic reality is blamed on Hillary as she is exploiting it instead of agreeing to the rational responsible Republican view that they should be deported.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

All this adds up to Hillary being the favorite to be the 45th President of the United States of America. If the GOP are serious about challenging her they need a candidate who takes into account the current American political realities instead of just trying to bring her down. Now neophyte Rubio has the brains. Maybe he should redevelop his immigration policy and put forward some rational policies on taxation and spending. Smartarse putting down of moribund Jeb coupled with an unbelievable arrogant attitude to doing the people’s work and claiming that he is bored in the Senate is not going to cut it. If there was one glaring deficiency in Obama’s tenure it was that he was a neophyte with no hill connections or real experience in governing leaving him to learn on the job. The country does not need another one of those so that leaves Christie, Kasich, Bush, if he is still interested, and Lindsey Graham. Of the latter Graham and Kasich are the only ones not in la-la land but they both have a long long way to go.

So the trouble with Hillary as far as the GOP are concerned is that she has fooled the American electorate into believing in her, her invincibility and the inevitability of her Presidency. The real trouble, however, lies with those who think they can win an election just by attacking her. This is not working because the electorate have computed all the above variables and are choosing her with all her warts in the absence of any Republican candidate meeting the requirements to become President.