SYRIAN REFUGEES, XENOPHOBIA AND TRUMP

As predicted the Parisian massacre turned out to be a game changer with far reaching consequences, (Blog: Paris and the Future of Terror). A key fallout was the marked hardening of attitude to the plight of the pitiful Syrian refugees. In no time they were swiftly relegated to pariah status. While Western Europe had previously accepted their predicament, in some instances only grudgingly, the body politic of EU countries now spurred on by right wing xenophobia reacted sharply to the Paris carnage. Nowhere was the terrorist blood spattered splurge more exploited than in the United States of America. It became front and center in the 2016 Presidential campaign with the GOP hopefuls finally finding a fear that resonates deep into the soul of the electorate. 

There are two tacks that the politicians are using to fuel the controversy. There is the argument that the vetting process on the refugees is not adequate enough to ensure that jihadist saboteurs will be excluded and more tendentiously that those Muslims currently in America need to be put on file and surveyed as some of them may be traitors.

XENOPHOBIA AND PARANOIA VERSUS REASON

Before continuing there is a very legitimate fear amongst the citizenry that there will be cold blooded murderous mayhem in the USA following the Paris, Beirut, Mali and Russian incidents. These fears are valid and need a rational response. However politically motivated exploitative xenophobia and paranoia is unconscionable and not a substitute for reason. So let us examine the facts as to whether Trump, Carson, Cruz, Rubio and several lesser lights among the GOP candidates, and about 30 GOP Governors who unconstitutionally refuse to allow any Syrian immigrants into their State are substituting xenophobia for reason.

COULD REFUGEES INCLUDE TERRORISTS?

Terrorist infiltration of refugees.

The narrative of those that wish to keep out the Syrian refugees is based on the potential for terrorists to masquerade as political fugitives. The latter theory has two fragments of supportive evidence. The first is in the form of a Syrian passport stamped by the Greeks certifying the bearer to be a refugee, which was found near a slain suicide bomber outside the French football stadium. The passport was found to be fake, The name on the passport was Ahmad Almohammad. The latter was a loyalist soldier in Assad’s Syrian army who had died a few months earlier. A refugee with a passport bearing the exact same name and details was located in a Serbian refugee camp. The German Minister of Interior, Thomas De Maziere, believes that the passport was deliberately left outside the stadium to mislead. The other supportive evidence of Jihadist penetration comes via ISIS themselves who have announced that they are infiltrating the refugees with their fighters. 

The claim ISIS made in regard to refugee infiltration was contemporaneous with the recent acceleration of fugitives onto the Mediterranean shores. The potential American immigrants have been in refugee camps for up to two years and are not being recruited from those just newly arrived in Europe. In any case no reliance can be placed on what ISIS does or does not say and it was fascinating to hear the GOP governors quote this as a rationale.

Further, negating the probability of the new Americans being “freedom fighters” is the fact that of the1600 already admitted half are children, a quarter are over 60 years and according to immigration officials only 2 percent are single males of combat age. In addition it has been emphasized that the easiest way for a terrorist to enter America is as visitor on the visa waver program. Why would they hang around in a refugee camp for 2 years and risk detection?

Back ground checks for Obama’s 10,000 Refugees insufficient.

The gist of the agitation of some of the opponents is not that they are against immigration of the Syrians per se but rather that their background checks are inadequate. National Public Radio recently featured the rigorous vetting that the current immigrants have been subject too.  These include the following steps:

The United Nations High Commission For Refugees, (UNHCR): The screening process starts here as this is where the potential immigrants are first registered. The UNHCR then make recommendations to certain countries on the basis of the applicants suitability to the destination country. They take into account whether the displaced persons have family in America and the like. If the US officials accept the UN assessments they begin their own processes.

US vetting agencies: These include the National Counterterrorism Center, The FBI’s Terrorist Screening Center, The Department of Defense, Homeland Security and Department of State. All pprospective immigrants are finger printed and in view of ISIS those from Syria are subject to even further investigations as to their circumstances prior to fleeing Syria and any possible terrorist connections.

Their final destination in America is decided on by nine non profit groups six of which are faith based. 

This all looks pretty reasonable so why aren’t the fears stilled? This issue is still up and front because the politicians, with Donald Trump, the pacemaker, are not only ignoring the facts in their ongoing onslaught but are inferring that the indigenous Muslim population are terrorists and linking that to the danger of the Syrian refugees gaining immigrant status.

 ATTACKS ON AMERICAN MUSLIMS, BLACKS AND LATINOS LINKING THEM TO REFUGEES AND TERRORISM

The  Donald and his fawning presidential competitors have upped the ante by piggybacking the issue of the Syrian refugees to the alleged danger inherent in the Muslim minority of America. By so doing they are implying that the latter are either terrorists or harbor them. Then when it is politically advantageous the business tycoon links the Muslim “problem” to his initial bogeyman the 12 million undocumented Latino immigrants whom he has labelled as murderers, rapists and drug dealers. Then every so now and then he will add the “blacks” to his menu casting them as “untermenschen”. Of course in each and every instance of these excesses, there are clarifications or subsequent flat out denials often offering, in addition, that “some of his best workers are……” and "that the....... love him".

It is common cause that Trump is America’s greatest entertainer and can evoke interest and excitement more than anyone else and his signature message in this campaign is dehumanizing and scapegoating minority groups. Apparently he believes this is the pathway to making America great again.

LIES, LIES AND MORE LIES

As outlined above there is next to no evidence to back up Trump’s campaign so he resorts to lies in addition to attacking by smear as evidenced above.

Syrian Refugee Lies

The mogul Presidential wannabe's first sally into the Syrian refugee crises was asserting that Obama had sanctioned 250,000 Syrian immigrants which lie he has repeated ad nauseam. This was the beginning of ongoing lying on this issue. This inexactitude was coupled with the revelation that the Syrian refugees were pouring into the country at this very moment. He then claimed “We don’t know who they are” knowing full well that the authorities did. He then fantasized that the refugees were being sent to Republican controlled States and not Democratic States. Finally, he forewarned all potential Syrian immigrants that they were going back if he was elected - a promise he could not legally fulfill. He interspersed his venom with a false tweet that 8 Syrian refugees, not terrorists mark you, tried to penetrate our Southern border, and that this justified his wall. 

Muslim Lies and Guilt by Association Lies

He then started making the connection between the terrorists, refugees and the American Muslims. Amongst this all was his tweet after Paris, “Everyone is saying how right I am with illegal immigration and the wall. After Paris they are all on the bandwagon”. Most recently Trump has steadfastly confirmed that after 9/11 he saw thousands of Arabs in New Jersey cheering the flaming twin towers. Now no one can corroborate this story and the police have maintained that this is nonsense. He has amidst an outcry moved for a registry of all Muslims in this country something that even Cruz would not acquiesce to. The task was not impossible it was just a question of good management he replied to the dumbfounded reporter.

Black Lies

The Donald tweeted, correction retweeted, to 5 million followers that Blacks where responsible for 81 percent of white murders. He argued in his defense that he, the Presidential wannabe, could not keep tabs on all these statistics. He did not even bother to apologize when it was pointed out to him that in fact 80 percent of white murders were perpetrated by whites.

For a comprehensive review of Trump’s most recent lies Jay H. Ell recommends a piece in The Fiscal Times by Rob Garver.

TRUMP NOT ALONE IN XENOPHOBIA

Now if Trump was an isolated voice it would be one thing but as he correctly observes “everyone is on the bandwagon”. The whole GOP Presidential cabal except Kasich and to a lesser extent Bush have followed like lemmings.  Carson has likened the refugees to rabid dogs and does not believe a Muslim is eligible to be President. Cruz believes that bringing in tens of thousands of Syrians into the US is lunacy and will be bringing in a bill to halt any immigrants. Rubio is so compromised on the issue it is irrelevant what he says. The Republican Governors fell into line pretending they have a constitutional say as to who can and who cannot enter the USA. Implicit in their stand is that if someone is legally in the USA they can prevent them from entering their State. They will need a wall! Chris Christie Governor of New Jersey and a no hoper in the GOP Presidential Race maintained that he wouldn’t accept a five year old orphan Syrian refugee. The latter response more or less epitomizes the Republican Governors spineless acquiescence to the Trump line. Finally, to their dying shame, 47 Democrats joined the House GOP to insist on impossible vetting processes where heads of Agencies would personally have to sign off on each and every prospective fugitive. In addition at least half of the GOP, probably twenty percent of the electorate are joining in the Trump jamboree and hysterically cheering him on. 

All in all this behavior with its degradation and scapegoating of a group, lying in the process, creates an unreasonable suspicion, fear and hate that adds up to xenophobia and paranoia. It is up there with the attitude to Jewish immigration in the 20’s and 30’s which culminated with the turning back of the passenger ship St. Louis, whose passengers were jews fleeing from Nazi Germany. The sad parallel has not escaped 11 major Jewish groups and organizations that have outright condemned this dehumanization of the Syrian refugees. 

The media have largely abandoned their role as “The Fourth Estate” as Jay H. Ell has blogged again and again. Their priority is ratings and what can command a greater viewership - a Trump rave or explanations as to the vetting process for refugees?

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Jay H. Ell, forever the optimist, believes that this xenophobia could create a ceiling on the support Trump can garner. If he remains around 28% it is not enough to beat a single GOP hopeful - if it ever gets down to that. Also as we speak Carson is unravelling. Cruz who is right of Genghis Khan could replace The Donald and he is the conservative with the best chance to win a majority of Primary Republican voters. In the event of Jeb of not coming out of hibernation - at least he has made a start by labelling Trump a fascist - the establishment may be forced to back Rubio. Karl Rove has declared war on Trump and is placing his hopes on Christie - phew those guys are really hoping for a miracle. For those with reasonable memories just two short years ago, Cruz, Paul and Rubio were regarded as the Tea Party darlings and nothing has changed other than Cruz has outrighted the other two. If Cruz does in fact assume the lead that will not guarantee the departure of The Donald who again reaffirmed, in spite of his pledge to support the winner of the Primary process, that he has not excluded a third party run. They just have to be high fiving back in Hillary’s headquarters as the Republicans settle in for a long hard year.

The good news is that more and more Islamic groups are condemning the violent interpretation of Islam. Some in Islamic leadership positions consider it demeaning that they should have to assert the obvious anymore than, let us say, the Baptists should be responsible for an outrage perpetrated by one of their number. Jay H. Ell believes that if any group acts in your name and besmirches it the obvious response is to condemn their behavior and discredit them. (This is as opposed to an individual committing a crime who happens to be a jew, for example, where making a statement on behalf of the jewish position on the crime would indeed be uncalled for.)

Finally, there is a need for education to allay fears as to the refugee vetting process and to hear the stories of the victims of Assad and ISIS. “Time” has an excellent feature, “A Syrian Refugee Story - Inside One Family’s Odyssey from Daraa to Dallas”. (Must have somehow jumped over Trump’s wall and ran past the Texas Governor).

PARIS AND THE FUTURE OF TERROR

The volcanic explosion of hate, death, slaughter of the innocents, sadism, guts and gore erupted and spilled out onto the streets of Gay Paris to the accompaniment of the ISIS manifesto spewing out its paranoid rationale for its psychopathic, seemingly inexplicable behavior, namely France’s leadership role in the “Crusader Campaign” against the Islamic State and daring “to curse our prophet”. The bare measurable statistics - over 130 dead and 350 wounded and a city defiled by those who purport to be holy. The immeasurable sequela of this abomination are vast and it  will be regarded as a watershed event in world politics, comparable only to the 9/11 evil in America. The cold reality of terrorism is that relatively tiny numbers of individuals in this asymmetric digital social media saturated computerized shrunken planet can wreak havoc on communities. The French attack will result in far reaching consequences and assumptions as to the threat ISIS proposes. It will also result in hysteria which the media will heighten in their own unique irresponsible way.

ISIS - A WORLD POWER?

The first consequence of the Paris attack especially in the wake of the crashing of the Russian passenger jet in the Sinai and the Beirut suicide bombing is that the new world power kid on the block is ISIS. The assumption is that the newly found Caliphate, with about 30,000 soldiers in its army, loosely made up of ever changing chunks of Iraq and Syria is akin to the Soviet Union, America, Europe and China. That they have a plan to takeover the world which has been masterminded in their capitol Raqqua that is slowly being put into motion by their operatives in Western States and other Shia and Arab Gulf States. 

The talk of the integrity of the USA, for example, being in peril is really such nonsense and no evidence for this hypothesis exists anywhere. Firstly, in terms of conventional war ISIS haven’t one plane, one warhead and their arena of action is where it is  - the Middle East. Israel has not considered it to be part of the existential threat against it and heavens knows Netanyahu doesn’t hold back. Bibi is not dreaming of mixing in the fight that is essentially an internecine struggle for the hearts and minds of the Muslim world. ISIS outside of the theater of war in the Middle East is pure and simply a terrorist organization that can effect the most dastardly destructive disruptive cowardly deeds but in spite of the Paris massacre and tragedy the French Parliament are not going to hand over power to them anymore than the American Congress told Al Qaeda they were calling it quits as they had the U. S of A beat following 9/11.

ISIS would love to gain status by an on the ground fight with the USA and or Russia so it can truly carry out its fantasy of taking on the infidels. Thus far in spite of the hawks screaming at him Obama has wisely kept his distance. Real world power foot soldiers will give ISIS the prestige it craves to establish itself as The Muslim power.

So ISIS is not a world power. It has however two areas of operations - its central headquarters the new Caliphate and the terrorists that ally themselves to the movement on the international scene.

ISIS IN MIDDLE EAST - ISIS CENTRAL-  THE CALIPHATE

ISIS is unlike Al Qaeda that had an infrastructure, a hierarchical chain of command and initially the protecsia of the Taliban, and inhabited Afghanistan where they were not under constant attack by countries in the region and world powers. Al Qaeda was a firmly established group that had won a war throwing the Soviets out of Afghanistan with the help of the West.  None of this reality pertains to ISIS. What ISIS has got going for it is that it operates in vulnerable weak and/or despotic countries and has a radical brutal philosophy to give it an identity and a purpose. Their manifesto is carved out of a bloodthirsty interpretation of Islam and receives a worldwide circulation through the social media which as it can reach everybody and anybody anywhere anytime is its greatest recruiting tool. The one arena that ISIS has mastered and manipulated is the internet via social media and YouTube. The grotesque videos, that it professionally produces and that outrage the world, hone into the minuscule audience that it is aimed at. It does need to recruit millions it just needs thousands from a pool of 1.6 billion Muslims. Their priority at the moment, as a fledgling country, is immigrant recruits who will fight for their cause and their chunk of land. 

ISIS INTERNATIONAL

Almost as a byproduct there are going to be supporters and recruits that are nationals of other countries. Here the numbers in the “army divisions” can be in the single digits. They can effect deeds that they claim are in support of ISIS and more importantly the ISIS Central leadership can claim ownership of their obscenities such as the Parisian attack.

While exact details are still unclear there were reported to be seven terrorists involved in the Parisian attacks and a further nine that were involved in a shoot out with French security a few days later. One might have been a refugee from Syria as a passport, which the CIA believes is fake, seems to indicate this. There are a number of French and Belgian nationals where the attack is thought to have been masterminded. The Belgian authorities believe that the brain behind the attack is Abdel Hamid Abaaoud who was one of the leaders of a cell of returned Jihadi fighters from Syria which was largely smashed by the Belgian Security police in a shoot out some time back. It is uncertain whether he was killed in the subsequent shoot out.

So that is the full extent of the ISIS army in Paris, plus a couple of thugs who may still be on the run, who have declared war on France! There is no evidence that this was orchestrated from ISIS Central. The incendiaries may have won the first battle but Jay. H. Ell hardly thinks they will win the war. This has not stopped the media hyperbole as to the strengths of ISIS in all the world capitols - nowhere more is this more evident than in the USA where it is election season. Moreover it allows ISIS Central to feed on the fanciful descriptions of its newly attained power. They have just threatened to attack, yes to attack, Washington.

THE COUNTER TO ISIS

ISIS Central

So there are really two distinct conflicts - one in the Middle East, ISIS Central, and another in the rest of the world, ISIS International. Of course they are linked but mainly by the internet. If ISIS is removed as a power in the Middle East that will not stop the terrorist phenomenon in the world. There are apparently a tiny but nevertheless tremendously significant number of disaffected deranged individuals who will latch onto the terrorist movement du jour that have morphed as fighters for ISIS.

In the Middle East in the struggle against ISIS Central the allied plan should not deviate from providing air cover and logistical support for the locals. Now if Jay H. Ell was the Commander in Chief, the Kurds would be getting far more support than they are getting. Take the line from Israel who are in the area and if Bibi isn’t sending ground troops no one else should. Essentially this is a Muslim battle which the Gulf States and Egypt should be bearing the bulk of the fighting as should be Iran who have the most to lose. Obviously the issue is complicated what with Syria unraveling. However, the line is the same there - nothing will be achieved by mixing in with ground troops. This lesson does not need to relearned at the cost of lives.

The hell that is going to ascend on ISIS Central will make them wish that they had never claimed the Paris branch of ISIS International as their own. This attack is just too big to let go much as 9/11 sowed the seeds of Al Qaeda’s destruction, who were by far a tougher nut to crack than will be ISIS Central. Also taking on Russia in the same month will bring down the gates of hell on them.

The prognosis for the new Islamic State sucks and whatever time it takes they will be reduced to bands of marauding terrorists. As Obama keeps cautioning eradicating this bunch totally will be a long long process. Their scary videos of them marching around hugging each other, teaching children how to kill, shooting ammunition into the air and savagely executing infidels in jump suits will not get them past the radar surrounding sovereign countries.

ISIS International

Now ISIS International is an internal security problem for each country and for intelligence cooperation between nations. The objective here is to flush out some hundreds of  fundamentalist Jihardi thugs and for the profilers who think this is a piece of cake there are over a billion and a half Muslims. It is hard to believe that the Paris massacre participants were missed by the internal and international intelligence. It has to be getting harder and harder for these miscreants to escape detection. In the wake of Paris the world needs to prepare itself for more intrusions into privacy. 

The Muslim community itself has been hammered. They are being asked to take a much more active role in the detection of these angels of death. The social media is awash with Islamic condemnation of the events yet the perception remains that there isn’t a concerted enough effort by religious groups to denounce and ferret out these cells. Particularly there are allegations against radical clerics. Rightly or wrongly the Muslim leadership, political, religious and the NGO’s have to get a coordinated act together. Till this is done the xenophobia will continue apace. If they don’t act they make the task of the rational voices harder and harder to curb the excesses of the naysayers.

HUMANITARIAN AND POLITICAL SEQUELS

The immediate casualty of the Parisian apocalypse is the plight of the Syrian refugees. In a mixture of anger, fear, xenophobia and prejudice the stop button has been pressed. Already a hot button issue in European countries the contagion has spread to the USA where Governor after Governor has refused to accept them. To date Obama has been extremely conservative in his approach only offering to accept 10,000 and these have been slowly filtering in. 

Ironically they have all been vetted up the ying yang as most have been in refugee camps for years. However this is election season and with the confrontations in the Middle East and the recent terrorist atrocities their status will become a front and center issue. Maybe The Donald will want to build a wall to keep them out. It is sobering to note that since 9/11 three quarters of a million refugee immigrants have come to America and according to CNN very few if any have been involved in terror. The Boston bomber brothers incidentally came to the USA as tots and were radicalized here and as Americans citizens. However reason is not going to dictate behavior as fear and xenophobia are the order of the day. 

For practical purposes the issue of refugees is of far greater import in Europe where Angela Merkel’s go ahead for a total of 800,000 fugitives has just received a rejuvenated heft to be halted. Many are forecasting that the whole Paris incident has now hastened her political demise with the newly formed group, Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the Occident, organizing a mass  protest meeting in Germany. 

The same angry sentiments are felt everywhere in Europe - France’s far right leader Marine Le Pen has careered in and upped her anti immigrant rhetoric that has been on the boil since the Charlie Hebdo incident. With the French elections only three weeks away she has called for an immediate halt on the influx of the refugees. She reminds all that one of the gunmen, Ahmed Al -Mohammed was purportedly, “among the mass of immigrants who flow into Europe each day”. A fuming French Premier Hollande needs no spurring on and is already forecasting that France’s borders face a return to barbed wire. The EU’s plan to divvy up 160,000 displaced is lying in tatters, facing outright rejection and court challenges while the UK has the same refrain to call a halt till there can be security checks.

Netanyahu was not slow to point out the double standard that exists between the world response to their own home grown terrorism and their, at best, disinterest to what the Israelis go through almost on a day to day basis. Sweden and the South African government were quick to couple their condemnation of the event with the Palestinian plight making one wonder if the world’s problems can ever be solved with this selective morality. 

The thread running through this all is a ninety degree turn to the right as a food fest of xenophobia spreads like a contagion. The extreme right wing are becoming main stream. Al Jazeera, an Arab media company that is considered to have a voice of moderation, pointed out that all religions have biblical texts exhorting violence and that crimes committed in the name of Jesus are so vast and heinous that it would take volumes just to highlight them and that the Jews are responsible for the world’s most longest and brutal occupation. However, this tack is not going to win friends and influence people in this climate. They also point out that the biggest victims of all this violence are Muslims themselves and the Hindus in India are responsible for the largest scale discrimination and massacres in the modern day.  

The only focus at the moment is the savagery and brutality evinced in the name of Allah which is then coupled with women abuse and other Sharia law barbarism that Islam ostensibly supports. Any ifs, ands and buts merely anger the critics. While Al Jazeera may be ringing their hands in frustration none of this will cut any ice till those associated with Islam, across the board, move determinedly so that it is obvious to all but the bigots that the Islamist Jihardi terrorism is to them what Nazi Germany was to the World. Invoking the Crusades and simplifying the Israeli situation thereby exhibiting bias will not help the cause of normalizing relations and attitudes between civilizations of all persuasions. 

FUTURE OF TERRORISM

State sponsored terrorism will eventually die on the vine. Al Qaeda under the Taliban has been reduced to a pale shadow as will eventually the whole caliphate of ISIS. There sources of income will be cut off as they are systematically bombed. 

As far as countries where the international arm of ISIS is supposedly operating these acts will continue as there will sadly always be the deranged and estranged to effect them. Paris is likely to be followed by copycat attempts and ongoing scares in the near future. (The media are keeping this all going by highlighting threats that are on the internet every other day as if they are part and parcel of the great tide of ISIS frontal assault on the world). There are unhinged in every society that turn their anger outward in the most dastardly and cowardly way. When ISIS collapses those who wish to alienate themselves with the terrorist moment du jour will do so and obviously they will be embraced as army members of the new psychopathic group they purport to represent. 

Ironically the country that feels they have the external threats under control, the USA, are not much fussed by the almost weekly terrorist carnage in schools, malls and cinemas, unleashed by the unstable, who have unhindered access to arsenals, as they are not considered to be external acts of terrorism. The same crowd who are screaming for screening in depth of the refugees don't believe that simple background checks are necessary for those that purchase arsenals in the USA.

So the future of terror seems assured - certainly the homegrown variety. As this piece is written it is alive and well throughout the world. What is beyond doubt is that they will not overturn existing governments.

There are no winners in any of this as essential values such as peace and understanding between all peoples receive yet another setback because of the actions of just a few and the response of many.

RABIN 20 YEARS LATER: SO WHAT IS NETANYAHU’S END GAME?

With the twentieth anniversary of Yizhak Rabin’s assassination evoking so much debate and speculation about what might have happened had he lived it is as good a time as any to reflect on the future of Israel in the Middle East and the hope for peace in this conflict torn area. There are so many ways to look at it all. On the one hand Israel have in the past two decades become a power to be reckoned within the Middle East. (Blog: Powerful Israel Needs A Paradigm Change). But on the other hand they are as far away from the establishment of a two State solution as they have ever been. 

No reasonable person could expect such an eventuality with Hamas not remotely interested threatening death and destruction. While Abbas would have to be dragged screaming into a settlement as his behavior has shown.  Since Rabin’s death the hope of peace appears to have been abandoned by Palestinian regimes, if they were ever there, but they have been provided with more than enough plausible assistance from the Israeli side to appear as the victims. Netanyahu seems only too comfortable in the cycle of insurgency and insurgency crushed and in the process giving Hamas and Arafat the public relations victories they seek. So the realities that Israel face twenty years after the tragic demise of Rabin are:

* Israel’s existence and role in the Middle East is as secure as ever with the Jewish State being a key partner with the fundamentalist Gulf Sunnis and Egypt against Iran and its Shia allies and radical ISIS.

* Israel faces a conflict against mainly Hamas and with its over riding fire power and impeccable intelligence raises it to the ground each and very time. Hamas has two objectives - periodically making life very uncomfortable for the Israeli population and by the way it fights its wars to see to it that there are enough of its own young dead amongst the rubble photographed for the world to see.

* For the Israelis this means living in constant fear of terrorism punctuated by periodic wars with peace and normalcy an ever distant hope. Mothers still have to send their sons and daughters off to war and far to often nobody can venture out of home. Rabin’s hope for peace is all but forgotten and the Netanyahu administration barely pays lip service to the concept.

So no one argues with Israel’s right to exist and their right to defend themselves. The question on the mind of many is what has been done to bring to peace? 

IT MAY BE UNFAIR BUT THE TERRORISTS ARE THE CLEAR WINNERS OF THE PROPAGANDA BATTLE

So much has happened since that fateful bloody day giving justification to both sides of the Israeli political divide. Whatever the two sides may argue there is one clear winner - the Palestinian terrorists. Twenty years later when they have no conceivable hope of winning a conventional war they are garnering increasing world wide and political support from a coalition who are condoning their obscenities in view of their plight and the mistaken belief that Israel is solely responsible for it. It has now become fashionable in intellectual and even political circles to boycott, disinvest and sanction Israel. Something even Abbas feels uncomfortable about as he recently asked the activists to just apply this to settlements. While Abbas can do whatever he believes is tactically the best for his cause the fact that the International Court of Justice can seriously weigh charges against Israel for its war conduct when put plain and simply the charges are directly related to the manner the Palestinians conduct war with women and children first - first to be bombed that is - is outrageous.

So while Hamas quietly and systematically prepare for the next bout of terrorism and Israel do nought to counter this propaganda surge by attempting to change the perception among everyday Palestinians, the purveyors of death gain more and more traction in the public relations battle. No one in the Netanyahu administration is out there making initiatives for peace. No Netanyahu operatives are thinking outside the box to make inroads to change the ever worsening status quo. Who is encouraging NGO's to make contact and form liasons for example? There are private initiatives and poignantly the most visible is the group of Palestinian and Israeli parents who have lost a child in the conflict. The anti Rabinians just bluster along while Hamas and Abbas bide their time believing that if they stick it out forever they must win.

That so many of the verbal attacks and abuses laid on the Jewish State are hypocritical and biased is reflected by the fact that half the motions that the United Nations Committee on Human Rights have ever passed have been condemnations of Israel’s abrogation of Human Rights. This while the world has seen unholy genocide, widespread torture and real abrogation of human rights and the rule of law and violence towards woman and children on an unheard of scale. That it is all based on double standards and is not fair is not the argument. Firstly, Israel proudly claims that it is a transparent democracy and that is the way it should hope to be judged. Secondly, it is the reality and the onus, rightly or wrongly, is for Israel to change the paradigm of its current approach to the problem.

WHAT WAS RABIN’S OPPONENTS  GAME AND ITS OUTCOME?

As an ardent believer and supporter of Israel with the firm conviction that Israel has never been the aggressor and have had an ongoing battle to survive bloody onslaughts, first from the surrounding Arab States and subsequently and to this day by terrorist organizations, Jay H. Ell is still more than uneasy about what the end game is of those that opposed the Oslo Accords then and to this day. Put another way what have those, who pilloried Rabin as a traitor, done in the past two decades to resolve the Israeli Palestinian crisis?

Now before Jay H. Ell is jumped on everyone take a deep breath and firstly analyze what the objectives were of those that opposed the deal. One does not have to speculate too much as the guy who was Rabin’s chief opponent and has been in power almost continuously since, Bibi Netanyahu, is still around and calling the shots. While Rabin’s assassin was a loner and no sane person condoned the behavior it is fair to say that the opposition and the environment surrounding Rabin’s deal was toxic and BIbi was the cheerleader in chief. It can be even argued that the opponents did not trust Abbas but what was their alternative? Well, they have had twenty years to put it forward and it is hard not to argue that whatever they have done has been counterproductive to peace and the two state solution that Israel signed onto seventy years ago. Netanyahu can hardly take credit for Barak and Sharon’s efforts although he can argue that they went nowhere. The alternative policy has been to build settlements. Rabin’s opponents cannot contend that by building and defending settlements they have contributed to peace. It is nonsense in this day and age's weaponry and assymetric warfare to believe any longer that it actually contributes to security.

NOW WHAT AND WHERE ARE WE NOW ?

All this begs the question as to what in the past twenty years has Netanyahu put forward to resolve this conflict and what does he propose doing in the next twenty? If the narrative is accepted that, “What can anyone do with such savages”, then let it be said once and for all. Then the solution is an ongoing fight to the death with the Palestinians so get on with it. But that is not what Netanyahu is saying nor has he ever said that. Instead he has added to the argument of those that believe that the Palestinians are the sufferers as he has allowed and encouraged settlements to be built by those who opposed Rabin’s two state peace talks and answered the attacks on them and Israel never convincing anyone that the Israelis are the sole victims. The retaliatory measures, viewed on every medium, of blowing up the homes of Palestinian terrorists as the pathetic families stand by with their few pathetic belongings has not helped and just provided more prime time footage for a press hungry to portray the Israelis as the barbarians. Likewise the flattening of Gaza after each war is welcomed by Hamas who are standing on the rubble next to the dead bodies for photo ops with the Associated Press.

WHERE TO NOW?

So Netanyahu and his followers answer to the Palestinian “problem” is settle on the land that could reasonably be argued that should have been ceded in a two state solution so that it can never be part of a solution. For argument sake let us assume that the opponents of Rabin’s initiative believe they have enough settlements what do they advise next? 

Do they advise a one party state where the Palestinians will be in the majority in no time? If all they are doing is legitimizing and institutionalizing the status quo they then support a one party state with no rights for Palestinians? If this is the end game it would lend even more support to those who are cynically calling Israel an apartheid state. 

Or do they believe, while every so now and then reaffirming the concept of the two State Solution, as Netanyahu has just done at his meeting with Obama, that the status quo should continue and they will just wing it? Nothing that Netanyahu and the inheritors of the opposition to Rabin do give any reassurance that the policy is anything other than to increase the settlements and remain in constant war. Put another way unless this policy changes the inheritors of the Rabin opposition are committing their own children and grandchildren with the children and grandchildren of others that do not support this policy to permanent war and death. If the belief is on the basis of a biblical injunction, it cannot be from My God. Ironically, the Israeli political leaders that have been war heroes and have kept Israel safe are those that have made the peace moves. They have been opposed inter alia by those who don’t get drafted for religious reasons as well as ideologues like Netanyahu. 

WHAT NOW

In this new Middle East that Netanyahu and the opponents of Rabin find themselves where Israel has garnered Gulf Arab support and is flourishing economically what can be done? It is fair to say that for the moment a two state solution is out. What needs to be done for now is set into motion policies to change the hearts and minds of the Palestinians. Netanyahu is doing just the opposite with regard to the Palestinians that are Israeli citizens and nothing for those that are not. Netanyahu has done nothing to deny his settler class any of their demands. They need to compromise within the Israeli context. 

True to his twenty year bull in a china shop style he has appointed a Press Secretary that has called Obama an anti semite. What is he trying to do? In case no -one has told him over fifty percent of the American Jewish population agreed with Obama on the Iran deal and that by his arrogant, intrusive, aggressive approach to the nuclear talks he has turned Israel into a bipartisan issue. The President still has a large Jewish following and this will not sit well with them. Netanyahu still needs Obama otherwise he would not have gone off to Washington with his begging bowl in hand. Seriously, maybe it is time for Bibi to call it quits or show some bold initiatives that may in the years to come change the dynamics of the Middle East.

For the moment the Israeli Premier’s end game is the same game he has played for twenty years and Israel on a day to day basis does not sleep any easier than it did on the day Rabin was murdered. So all those cynics who shrug their shoulders and say there is no hope should stop complaining that there is no hope. The onus is on the Jews and Israel in this situation like it or not. It would be a long long process to change attitudes and for those looking for a biblical, philosophical and ethical explanation as to why they should, read Rabbi Jonathan Sacks’s paradigm changing blockbuster “Not in God’s Name”. This giant intellect has put forward a rationale for regarding us all as one human family and more significantly in this context shown hope for peace. To simplify his message - We should all reach out to someone who is different and start a dialogue. 

KOCH BROTHERS $889 MILLION PROBLEM

Charles and David Koch have a problem - a real problem. They announced in January of this year that they had nearly $900 million to spend on the 2016 Presidential election and they just can’t find anyone to spend it on. Any Republican that is. Jay H. Ell feels their pain as in spite of all those candidates he would be at loss as to where he might spend $900 let alone the millions. Charles Koch in an interview with MSNBC”s Morning Joe Scarborough that brought tears to one’s eyes, bemoaned the fact that with all the money he has spent thus far in American Presidential politics he has achieved very little positive. Jay H. Ell would agree with him on that. But Koch’s frustration is mounting with an awareness that he can’t take it with him and he is now in his eighties and in 2020 he will be closing in on the nineties.  

THE KOCHS ARE THE GODFATHERS THAT WRECKED THE OLD GOP

The Kochs can look back at nearly fifty years of trying to influence the American world with hundreds of million of dollars. In Charles’s therapeutic “pour it all out” session with Morning Joe he lamented the fact that he had made very little impact in the political world but Jay H. Ell believes he was just being modest. He is responsible for think tanks and advocacy organizations that have played the central role in changing the culture and direction of the GOP whether he likes it or not. Declaring war on George W. Bush, 43, was the seminal event that spawned the Tea Party. He has get togethers of the likeminded that Presidential candidates literally die to be invited too. This year round Cruz, Rubio and the departed Scott Walker were in attendance. The brothers were the founders of the most influential Political Action Committee, America For Prosperity and the lists of libertarian and Conservative leaning organizations that they are involved in are legion. 

Softball empathetic counsellor MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough might have enquired, “Do you feel that anything you might have done has created the dilemma you now are in with regard to the direction the country is going and for the present array of candidates for the Republican nomination?”. Because much like with Bush 43, whom the Kochs despised for going into Iraq not only wasting trillions accompanied by the loss of thousands of lives, there are unintended consequences to their interventions as well. Bush has the Middle East chaos on his conscience and the Kochs have the three ringed circus that passes for a Republican nomination contest on theirs. 

Well enough already with the blame game let us look at the Koch dilemma.

WHO WILL IT BE?

Now Governor Walker, who the Kochs were said to favor, is out of the race, retired hurt. So let us move to the hopefuls that the Kochs will never support. Numero uno in this category is the flag bearer of the Bush dynasty, George W’s brother, Jeb. Then there are the no hopers on the B list, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, and Rick Santorum. No sense in wasting all that hard earned cash. In addition there are a list of Tea Party fellow travelers on the original A list that are also chanceless - Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina. There are two candidates that the Kochs are unlikely to live with - Chris Christie and John Kasich. The choice has to come from the remaining four -  the big two, Ben Carson and Donald Trump and the newest white hopes Marc Rubio and Ted Cruz.

WHO FITS THE KOCH’S LIBERTARIAN BILL?

Going over this list you can understand the Koch angst. They all represent anarchy. The lot have disowned the Republican Party and want to negotiate the rules of the debates  on their own.  There is precious little that they agree about the debates either other than they all don’t want to be asked questions that might embarrass them. Trump and Carson are ad idem on one item - keep the debates short so the others cannot get too much exposure. Trump is holding the media to ransom. As the number one attraction, as he so modestly reminds everyone, they are more less negotiating with him with what is a sequel to his “The Apprentice” show.  Their objective is ratings and Trump delivers. Now while Trump is being discussed he does not want Koch money, for the moment, he has enough of his own so that rules him out as a Koch welfare recipient. Anyhow Trump is all over the show - his populist financial stuff must leave the Kochs stone cold. He wants to keep Medicare and Social Security. So no sour grapes that The Donald does not want their pot of gold they wouldn’t pick him anyway!

Now it is conceivable that Chris Christie could be lifted over the hustings with a ton of money but he is flawed in more ways than one. Anyway Fox kicked him off their main debate. More to the point, he, like chanceless Kasich, compromises on welfare and the like. What about Rand Paul he is a Libertarian just like the Kochs but he is at 1 percent and is as crazy as the rest of them. Oh woe is me. Now the Kochs, Jay H. Ell is sure do not want to spend all that money lifting someone from 1% to 10% in the polls so realistically it boils down to choosing between Ben Carson, Marc Rubio and Ted Cruz. Carson has to be too off the wall to garner any type of institutional support - some of his statements like Joseph built the pyramids to store wheat and have to really put his sanity into question. The latter two have been honored by invitations to a Koch rendezvous with the rich and the generous so it has to one of them.

The Kochs, one would imagine, if it gets down to Cruz or Rubio would let the two of them duke it out and then go for the winner. The thought of either of these two neophytes is scary but someone has to do it! So the Kochs will hang on to their money till then. 

This is all moot if Carson and Trump keep to the top of the pile. Then what? Do they sling all this money behind one of them to keep Hillary out? Jay H. Ell’s guess is that they will then concentrate on the legislature elections.

WHAT ABOUT THE GOP ESTABLISHMENT?

Karl Rove and the Establishment cannot fold that easily and Jay H. Ell’s guess is that they have to have a dog in this fight. Secretly, they will never give up on Jeb till Jeb gives up on Jeb. But Daddy Bush has joined Mommy Bush in wanting Jeb out of this race by criticising Dubbaya Bush on Iraq when Jeb had supported him. (If the three Bush's can't be on the same page the GOP are in even more trouble than imagined). They will certainly look at Kasich and Christie a lot longer than the Koch crowd. However, if all else fails they will tip the nomination in favor of Rubio and declare him their candidate too. (Now Rubio if he hits Prime Time has real money problems relating to his person and alleged malfeasance with expenditures while in the Florida legislature). 

But again all this is moot if the two independent musketeers, Trump and Carson hang onto the top positions. However, unlike the Kochs, the establishment will spend money, big money, to keep them out. If one of those became the nominee then what are the GOP supporting? Can they ally themselves on deporting 12 million Latinos. In addition the Tea Party literature is full of Trump punting gold over the dollar. Or can they ride along with Carson and own statements such as that if the Jews would have had guns there wouldn’t have been a holocaust or that in the endless gun massacres in schools it is the victims’ fault as they should rush the shooter!

THE ESTABLISHMENT DESERVE THIS MESS AS WELL

If the Kochs are to blame for facilitating the climate for this disaster the Establishment are even more culpable as they allowed to happen and did nothing to counter it. After the last election they had a post mortem that warned them not to repeat everything that they had done in the 2012 cycle. But once again they stood by in the hope that the Tea Party cranks would fall by the wayside, as they did last time.Then carrying on that hope that the candidate that emerged could change the Presidential election narrative just like Romney couldn’t last time. The Party elders to this day haven’t challenged the Tea Party narrative. They still haven’t heeded the warnings about ignoring the demographics that they need to win an election. Instead they have antagonized them even more. 

They have sat by and hoped that it would all go away and now they have a Trump or a Carson as their standard bearer.  And failing them Cruz who has told the Republican leader in the Senate to go to hell. Or at best Rubio who declared war on the personification of the GOP Jeb Bush and who is a pompous whipper snapper who politically is all over the show. The cancer has metastasized even further. The Senate is almost certainly lost and their new white hope speaker Paul Ryan is history, like Boehner, if he doesn’t pander to the crazies. By his statement that, “it would be ridiculous to do anything about immigration”, ostensibly because he doesn’t trust Obama, he has upped the ante in exclusivism.

Just to remind Reince Priebus the Chairman of the Republican Party, whom all the Presidential candidates have just ditched, what the 2012 report he commissioned told him:

“The Republican Party needs stop talking to itself. We have become expert to providing ideological reinforcement to like minded people, but devastatingly we have lost the ability to be persuasive with or welcoming to, those who don’t agree with us on every issue”.

It’s worse than that now as the narrative has become even more exclusive. This discussion is pervasive in every arena whether it be the Benghazi hearings, Planned Parenthood, LBGT equality, minimum wage and the like.

 CARSON, TRUMP, CRUZ, FIORINA ET AL ARE FOR REAL

For those all knowing pundits that are reassuring themselves that all these “outliers” are not for real they need to get real themselves. The disillusionment with politics and its politicians is endemic. The body politic is highly impressed with Trump, his record, his confidence and his independence. Likewise Carson, the antithesis of Trump’s bluster exudes politeness, capability and sincerity. Most of all they are both regarded as honest brokers. 

While the anti political establishment impact is far more marked in the GOP the Dems are not immune from this sentiment. Bernie Sanders, who is wowing the youth on the coasts, is not exactly a career Party politician. Although he is running for the Democratic Party nomination he is elected as an Independent and he has been on the fringe all his life. The GOP however has been totally taken over by the “independents” nearly all of whom no longer toe the Party line. The last establishment member standing is Jeb Bush who is looking quainter and quainter every day.

For the record over fifty percent of the GOP registered voters are supporting candidates in the Presidential Primary that have never ever occupied political office. This is not a fleeting phenomenon in fact the number is growing. Then the next two candidates with about ten percent each are Cruz and Rubio both who have only been in the Senate for two years and are wildly anti establishment. So where is Jeb going to get his votes from? 

Hillary has to have one fear - low turn out. The “GOP” has just won the Kentucky Governorship with a Trump clone and the turn out was thirty percent. Hillary needs to capitalize on the enthusiasm Bernie has created amongst the youth and see that they follow through with her. To date Hillary has moved with the times and Elizabeth Warren is way out in front of it all. Come to think of it Obama was a political neophyte from left field himself so maybe the Dems have already made their adjustment!

And don’t cry too much for the GOP Old Boys there are just tons of boards they can join and legal firms that are lobbyists - although at this rate they will have no colleagues left to lobby.

WHERE THE KOCH MONEY SHOULD GO

Jay H. Ell believes that the Kochs should either spend all their money on prison reform which they agree with or give it to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation or even better the Clinton Charitable Foundation, either one who will put it to good use. Or maybe they will learn something new in the next debate on November 10 but Jay H. Ell is sure they are not holding their breaths.