PUTIN AND OBAMA - NEW WORLD VIEWS

The two cold war adversaries, the USA and USSR, through their leaders Vladimir Putin and Barak Obama have cast a totally new outlook on how they view their respective countries’ role in the Middle East specifically and the world generally. The Middle East scenario has dramatically changed in the past few months and Putin is climbing in while Obama is generally climbing out. Putin has added a worrying wrinkle for Israel as he hinted to Obama in their New York talks that he resented Israel’s interference in Syria! 

The conventional wisdom is that both of them have lost it - Barak, who is abandoning American supremacy and Vladimir who is recklessly plunging in where angels should fear to tread. However their behavior is far from unpurposeful and there is a consistency to their moves which is striking. In short Putin yearns for the old USSR glorious Imperial days and Obama is becoming more and more isolationist harking back to the USA in the twenties and thirties between the two World Wars.

The other plank in the American Premier’s platform is making peace with the world. Rapprochement with Cuba has been a priority, the Iranian nuclear deal and massive Trade Pacts have been assiduously worked upon and he has achieved his objectives in all of them. Against all odds the Senate voted to give him “fast track” authority to negotiate trade deals. His most recent accord with the Pacific rim countries involves 12 countries and forty percent of world trade. The deal in geo political terms is enormous and is a counter to China in their own backyard - a point missed by most commentators to date. Like all his transformative moves this has already raised the hackles of members on both sides of the aisle but Jay H. Ell’s gut feeling is that the Republicans will push the Pacific Pact through.

THE NEW MIDDLE EAST (ME) - THE PALESTINIAN/ISRAELI
CONFLICT

The central focus in the Middle East has changed from the Israeli Palestinian struggle to the battle between two Sunni factions and the Shiites with Israel lining up with the Gulf State Sunnis, Egypt and Jordan. No longer can anyone claim with a straight face that there would be peace in the region if only Israel would give the Palestinians their chunk of land. Abbas is threatening to tear up the Oslo accords a circumstance that would have previously sent diplomats scurrying  back and forth to avert a fate worse than armageddon but it barely made page two. Bibi made a monumental speech to the UNO and not only was no one there to listen if he hadn’t put it in Facebook no one would have known about it. Apparently he paused for 44 seconds and that is about the only content of his speech that got coverage. A far cry from the screeds that poured out when he addressed the UN and Congress last year. A reality he would be wise to take note off. His appearance last time was seen very much in the context of the local political scene where he was snubbing Obama and the Democrats in favor of the GOP.

Before leaving the topic of the Palestinian Israeli conflict just one recent development Abbas in his frustration is inciting more and more violence. He hasn’t quite yet called for the third Intifada but he is not far off. His tactic is simple. He will provoke a strong Israeli response which he will then use to whip up opinion against Israel. It works all the time and he then changes the narrative to a general attack on Israel and their denial of Palestinian rights. Inevitably in the retailiation there is civilian death and condemnation of Israel for not knowing that Paestinians put women and children in mumition sites. (Blog: Abbas and Arafat Same DNA - So Let's Get Real).

This incitement is out of character stuff for Mahmoud but he is desperate as his slips off the center ME stage. It is unlikely to get him anywhere cause nobody is really interested. Yes they will shove up his flag at UNO, make him an honorary member of the club and back his resolutions but there are far bigger fish to fry in the region. No lesser think tank than The Brookings Institute believes the more realistic approach to the age old conflict would be for both sides just to concentrate on Palestinian rights and worry about the two State solution later. 

Just one worrying aspect the religious violence is racheting up at the Temple Mount. Fundamentalists from both sides are confronting one another and Bibi has stepped in to make the Israelis stick their part of the deal. However, the Palestinian aggession far outweighs the odd Israeli fundamentalist outrage and although the rest of the world are not much interested the Israelis are and very soon a counter offensive will be unleashed that needless to say everyone will condemn.

SYRIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

So back to Syria which is the nidus of the region’s instability. The country is in a shambles four years into a catastrophic civil war that has splintered it into areas controlled by various rebel groups, a small area that Assad still is in charge of and ISIS who has created a blood stained caliphate together with the land it has captured from Iraq. There are 4 million refugees as a result of the Syrian civil war who are pouring into Europe unhinging the European Union but not fuzzing Putin one bit. He has on his blinkers and is focussed on one great big objective - his good self and a resuscitation of Russia’s glory days going back to Peter the Great. 

The Russian Tzar is going into the changing Middle East with a vengeance while the American Commander in Chief is not much interested in being a Commander. Nowhere is this more evident than in their respective policies on Syria which fit into their overall philosophy for the future. 

Putin is looking for every opportunity to expand Russian influence in the world. Part of his modus operandi is to be on whatever side Barak isn’t on. In the breakdown in the Middle East with its three emerging power blocks he has chosen to mix in with a vengeance. He has joined the Shiite faction lead by Iran. The latter have Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas in their stable and are vying for dominance in the region and the Muslim world while punctuating their imperialist aims with dire threats to annihilate America and Israel. Putin, behaving like the old comrades of yore - saying one thing and doing another - is openly siding with Assad of Syria in his fight against the rebels, bombing the latter’s strongholds. While paying lip service to the mantra that ISIS is the region’s and the world’s greatest threat he is supporting Assad rather than getting rid of the Islamic fundamentalists. He is there with a veritable arsenal, air power, a naval base, missiles that travel a 1000 miles and “volunteer” troops. This is no mean commitment and in characteristic bravado he doesn’t give a hoot what anyone else says. 

He sees his future in an intact Assad.

His recent infringements of his yesterday’s friend,Turkey’s air space which resulted in a virulent response from the Turks and NATO which have been shrugged off by the old USSR KGB operative as just part of doing business. This attitude of Vladimir is JUST pervasive - Crimea Ukraine - he just does not care.

Obama has just stuck to his limited agenda in all this. He is not going to declare war on Putin for bombing one of his rebel allies and says so. He will express irritation but that is it. There is no way that he sees himself climbing boots and all into the region. He is bombing ISIS a bit and claiming that they are the real worry and supporting selected anti Assad rebel groups. The latest reports indicate that he is even giving up on that.  

In retrospect he has done what he ran on -  only one war to fight and that was in Afghanistan to get rid of the Taliban and Osama. He pulled out of Iraq and nothing but nothing is going to get him going back there. All the taunts in the world, from the likes of McCain that he is turning the land of the brave into the land of the meek and letting Putin walk all over him and the USA, does not move him one bit. In short let the Middle East sort itself out no more American blood will be spilled and not too much treasure spent either. 

The American Chief cannot see this ending with Assad in place. He has to go! That is where he and Putin really part ways.

As far as Israel is concerned they can all shoot each other up - whoever wins wants to annihilate them. Other than the odd sortie where they see their interests threatened and humanitarian aid which they afford there line is similar to Obama's on Syria and ISIS for the moment.

WHAT ABOUT OUR ALLIES THE ISRAELIS AND THE GULF STATES?

But how does the two great powers current policy play with Israel and the Gulf States? Obama has reassured that he has Israel’s back and so far, when the crunch is on, he has delivered. But his laissez affaire attitude to the whole region has the Israelis and their allies tearing their hair out. The Iranian nuclear deal resulted in a cleavage between the two nations that has not been witnessed in decades. This chasm was undoubtedly exacerbated by Netanyahu, addressing Congress, with neither Boehner or him informing Obama of the invitation and with Bibi to this minute screaming the odds about the “bad deal”. Jay H. Ell believes that the deal was ill advised but is convinced, like large sections of the Israeli military and security apparatus is, that Israel and its Gulf allies can take any out any facility if and when the time arises. In addition as a result of the “bad deal” Israel is much more powerful in the region with the Gulf States, Egypt and Jordan as part of their new block. That with Egypt appealing to the Arab world to the make peace with the Jewish State must really warm the cockles of Bibi’s heart. 

So Barak has not yet been put to the test as to whether he has abandoned his allies. Jay H. Ell feels notwithstanding all the anger that his inexplicable Iran stance has engendered should Israel really be pressured he will deliver. 

Israel should be far more worried about Vladimir who prior to his Syrian adventure was very pro the Israeli State. Netanyahu was off to Moscow when the old KGB operative placed all that hardware in Assad’s hands, all of which could easily hit Israel. If push came to shove one has to believe that the Russian Premier is far more likely to sell out on Israel than is the American President. The Russian Insider News reported that Putin told Obama that he would clip Israel’s wings in stopping its attacks on Syrian soil. What a chutzpah from this Johnny Come Lately to the region telling Israel what it can and can’t do in the Middle East. 

PUT A SOCK IN IT BIBI

Bibi has to be wishing that he hadn’t been so arrogant with Barak. (Why oh why couldn’t he have done what other disputing Israeli PM’s have done - discuss this in private. Why this need to humiliate him?) How he would now love to be able to pick up the phone and seek reassurance from the American Commander in Chief. Why he burned those boats is just as much a reflection of his childish personality as pouting Putin’s behavior is towards him. He can hardly expect that the guy whom he snubbed in his own backyard is going to dial and say, “Don’t worry Bibi”. He is just going to let him stew. 

Now Bibi just in case you want to start maneuvering against Barak again, stop!  The GOP are in a mess at the moment and have other projects. You can rely on McCain, Graham et al to look after it all. You butt in again you will once again be used by the GOP in their fight with the Dems and continue the partisan divide on Israel that you helped to create and that does not serve the cause. 

So just sit tight.

AT THE END OF THE DAY WHAT COULD HAPPEN

Whichever way one looks at the scenario the future ain’t what it used to be:

 * While Israel still has threats of boycotts, disinvestment and sanctions there is nothing really threatening their existence at the moment. Abbas is doing more of the same with the objective of getting the world’s hackles up but he like Netanyahu has to appreciate that they are the sideshow at the moment. Netanyahu will clamp down hard on the unrest. The pair’s problems are far from over but nobody is going to get involved while Syria and ISIS are occupying prime time . 

* Russia like all colonial powers and the wannabes will never learn. In Putin’s desire to play with the big boys and distract the Russians from their domestic economic woes he is on the slippery slope to escalation. Next stop is getting into Iraq. He is on a roll. The biggest insult to him is the fact that the good old USA won’t even take him on. Other than to make arrangements not to get in each other’s way and moan diplomatically, Barak is not giving them the time of day. The Turks and the Saudis, who have a big stake in backing the Syrian rebels, may not be as sanguine about Moscow’s proactive role in the region. If Putin thinks he can scare them off he has another think coming. The Saudis and their Gulf allies are in a major battle with Iran for domination in the region and Muslim world and are not going to let a key Iranian ally like Assad off the hook so easily. If they and Egypt can forgive and forget their millennia old enemy Israel over this they are not going to be frightened off by Putin’s bluster.

* Putin’s best case scenario is that by his strong arm presence he can “force” the USA, the Saudis, the Turks and other parties to let Assad survive in a post war truce. If he can he will be the broker of this catatonic impasse with all the prestige that accompanies such a powerful mover and shaker. Iran will be ecstatic as its empire will still be intact. Then according to script everyone can cheerfully go on and fight ISIS. One fat hope that that can happen. Putin does not begin to understand the dynamic of the Middle East. This is not some regional barnyard scrap over a fence this is a struggle over the future of Islam. He just cannot march in and takeover.

* So Putin better be contemplating Plan B.

* As a sop to the USA Russia will join in and attack ISIS as well. This does not change the equation however. 

* America is in election mode and about the only issue that every prospective presidential candidate agrees upon is that Israel’s existence is top priority, If its survival was threatened there is no way that America would not intervene. Israel is not going to back off if they view Syria a threat and Obama, even if he wanted to, is not going to stand by if Putin threatens Israel. So it appears that Vladimir has not really thought this one through. 

To be continued and all bets are off one just does begin to guess how this cookie will crumble.