CAN BERNIE BE ANOTHER BARACK ?

There is an irresistible desire to compare the populist Bernie Sanders with the populist Barack Obama who beat out the self same Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Presidential nomination 8 years ago. In both situations the underdog was initially way behind in the polls but steadily narrowed the gap. Both were improbables that attract record crowds and have messages that resonate. Both were considered outsiders from traditional party politics thereby attracting a younger demographic that otherwise were totally disillusioned with Washington. Both competed against the establishment candidate Hillary.  Both are transformative figures. Both are charismatic but Barack is up there with Martin Luther King in some of his orations. 

So before someone can say to Bernie, "I know Barack Obama and you are no Barack Obama", let us see whether it can happen again and look at what did the first Democratic debate show if anything?

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE - A WALKOVER FOR HILLARY?

Jay H. Ell will resist the temptation to dwell too long on the differences between the Democratic forum and the raucous, unruly and undignified Republican circuses and limit his comments to the Democratic race. It is however fair to contrast the professional way the Democratic participants stuck to the issues even when confronting their opponents. The glaring difference that the debates have illustrated was that the GOP is still racked by division and the Democrats are, in spite of shadings, all on the same page.

There appear to be two spins on the outcome of the first debate  - those of the pundits and those of the man in the street that, on their face, appear to be diametrically opposed. 

The consensus of those in the know is that Hillary nailed it. Here are examples of some of the headlines: Washington Post - Hillary Towers Over Her Rivals; Time - How Hillary Won the Debate; Fox News - Well of Course Hillary Won; The Daily Beast - Hillary Scorches Her Rivals; The Rasmussen Reports - Hillary Sweeps the Tables; Newsmax - Hillary Blunts Out Bernie With Debate Showing; Morning Joe - Hillary Took Charge; The New Yorker - Hillary Wins Big in Vegas and New York Times - Hillary Clinton Turns Up the Heat on Bernie Sanders. They all confirmed what the TV pundits enthused post debate - Hillary wowed them.

As Eugene Robinson wrote in The Washington Post, "The GOP were right to fear Clinton".

Not only, according to the poo bahs, did Hillary polish off Bernie and the other three no name brands she put paid to Joe Biden who was waiting in the wings for the call. There appears to be no need for him to enter the race at this late stage as he is in addition a distant third in the polls. His non entry will help Hillary even further.

So all in all a pretty good night at the Vegas tables for Hillary. She broke the bank at Wynns. (Wynn by the way is an out and out Republican). But just like at the tables there can be more than one winner and that turned out to be The Berne.

THE MAN IN THE STREET

Inevitably there are the focus groups and CNN had a large one made up of Democrats and Independents who to everyone’s amazement thought Bernie had won. Obviously the criteria being put into play by the professionals were not the same as the voters in the focus group. Then Jay H. Ell listened to a morning talk show on National Public Radio where all the pros lauded Hillary for her impeccable performance and then they opened the phones, the e mails and the tweets. Lo and behold most of those that bothered to respond thought good old Bernie had won the debate! There is an online Democratic site “Democrats Unity” that has a straw poll with Bernie getting 49% support and Hillary just 20% of a 155,000 persons who clicked in. In the two early state primaries polls Bernie is closing in on Hillary in Iowa and is ahead in New Hampshire

Bernie by the way had 4,000 debate watch parties with a total attendance of a 100,000. He had with Hillary the highest collection of donations last cycle, $26,000,000. All his were made up of small donations. Then the following day after the debate his war chest  expanded by another $2,000,000. All made up of tiny amounts.

You know who was doing this last time out - Barack Obama! 

WHAT IT OBVIOUSLY MEANS AT THE MOMENT 

The fact is that an obscure disheveled elderly politician who is not even a Democrat but an Independent who is an unashamed socialist appears to be threatening the odds on favorite to win the Democratic nomination. This has to mean something. What it means is that the public are fed up with politics and politicians as usual. Bernie, who honeymooned in Russia many moons ago, tells it as it is. When he concedes to Hillary that her e - mails are a ridiculous diversion it is not considered a mistake of a clumsy neophyte it is rather perceived as genuineness of a patriot who does not wish to score points but rather debate issues. 

The Berne's message of redistribution of wealth is unadulterated and his cry that all the other candidates are contaminated by money rings true. He has no link at all to any moneyed corporation. While Hillary, for the most part is sounding honest, she still is a politician who has links to corporations and who one therefore can have legitimate doubts that she might not put her agenda into effect. The fact that Hillary is picture perfect and he isn’t makes him more authentic. His stumble over gun control which would be a major big deal for any other Democrat was given a pass as he reminded all, with pathos, of the fact of life that guns mean different things in his rural State as opposed to an urban setting. Even Bernie has to get elected the faithful nod. He is totally at sea outside his message but at the moment his cry to economic war seems to be enough. The mantra that the country is run by fat cats who control the politicians for their financial gain and to everyone else’s detriment has sunk in to his chunk of the electorate and is overriding every other factor at the moment.

 BERNIE AND TRUMP?

Now the one feature Bernie and Donald have in common is they are not regarded as politicians. One can argue that what the Vermont senator represents to the left is what the business tycoon epitomizes for the right. In fact the disillusioned on the right have been around, as the Tea Party, for some time and have already taken over the GOP. However they are still not to happy with politicians and they want The Donald and if not him Carson and if not him Ted Cruz, who although a politician is hated by them all. The Tea Party are massively disheartened. Their party cannot even elect a Leader of the House of Representatives. All they have for their efforts is anarchy.

So there is a similarity between the Right and the Left and that is that they are both fed up with politics as usual, as are their standard bearers, The Berne and The Donald. Hillary is more than just a politician she is the Establishment. (One wonders what the short tempered Donald would have to say if the Congress held up his Government. He would simply just fire them Jay H. Ell supposes).

 The Berne has a coherent message and one does not know what will come out next out of The Donald’s mouth. Interestingly Donald like Bernie has not got one penny from the fat cats. So the two represent something in common on different sides of the political spectrum.

 BERNIE IS NO OBAMA AND IS DEALING WITH A DIFFERENT HILLARY 

While Trump has to have a chance at the GOP nomination one cannot imagine Bernie emerging triumphant as the latter is not only not a Barack, with the machine that he had behind him, he has a different Hillary to deal with. Obama had plenty of the moneyed people. While Barack may have not been The Establishment he had the not inconsiderable Chicago establishment and machine behind him as well as luminaries like Democratic Senate Leader, Harry Reid. In addition he had a wide embracing knowledge of all aspects of government. Sanders is really a one message candidate. Outside of inequities in wealth and the concentration of resources into the 1% there is a resounding void.

Clinton’s expected opponent would be the old GOP Establishment’s Jeb and currently she is leaving him standing. If her opponent was Trump the demographics would kill him. So she really does look the part. She has an encyclopedic grip on the issues, is relaxed, appears less contrived and all the cognoscenti cannot be hailing her in a vacuum. She is the only one standing that is qualified for the job. So the almost harpy attitude of the last cycle with her and Bill losing it at the realization of what had originally seemed a formality, is not in evidence this time around. They have had 8 years to put it right.  

Most of her obstacles are parting just like the Red Sea did for Moses. Supposedly Benghazi and her e mails were hurdles but what with Head of the GOP in the House of Representatives admitting the whole thing is political and just now a Republican Member of the House agreeing that it was just designed to discredit her, the hearings will have no credibility. Added to that is a Republican staffer who claims he was fired because he resisted the pressure to gear the process in a purely partisan direction. That will have legs as a legal challenge is pending. Then you had Bernie himself echoing the mood of the Democratic constituency that they are not going to be waste time with her e mails. 

Now that the media are treating her as if she has been reinvented, her Benghazi hearings will be broadcast live. Another opportunity for her to shine. With what has transpired in an investigation that has gone on longer than Watergate the GOP can only look like hopeless bullies and her a dignified and capable victim.

She is taking nothing for granted as her highly rehearsed flawless performance at the debate showed. She is organizing like mad. She has a ton of money and PACS galore so even if she loses Iowa and New Hampshire she will win South Carolina and Nevada and all those Southern caucuses and Michigan and Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin and on and on and will have all the super delegates thrown in. It is just so hard to imagine Bernie with his one stump speech and being clueless on foreign affairs marching through America increasing his support. Remember he still is well behind Hillary in the national polls. Hillary is leading 2 to 1.

But the fact that makes Jay H. Ell so sure that Hillary is the business is that when the groups that support The Bern are asked who they think the Democratic nominee will be they overwhelmingly answer Clinton. Ultimately they all know to get things done you have to have the skills and political connections to effect this. In this department the Clintons are numero uno. Meanwhile everyone is enjoying themselves and going along for the ride. 

GOP SHOUD TAKE NO SOLICE FROM BERNIE OR ANYTHING ELSE

Sanders, whatever happens, has at least richly added to the conversation unlike Trump, who himself is “rich, really rich” and talks nonsense about deporting 12 million people and building a wall to rival the wall of China. Or Carson who blames the victims of a mass shooting. Or Cruz who cheers on the Government being shut down and is living proof that the Tea Party are a party of protest not government. Or Fiorina who sees things that nobody else sees. Or Rubio who changes his position every other day. Or Huckabee who maintains thieves should be sold into slavery….. (No wonder poor Sheldon is having nightmares as to who to give his money to).

What with the Benghazi e - mail scandal fizzling the GOP seem to have no agenda other than to pray that Bernie gets the Democratic nomination. However in the unlikely event that Bernie executes he would probably beat any GOP candidate. The same demographic works for him as does for Hillary and in this milieu droves of Republican supporters may just stay at home. Also don’t forget Bernie is soft on guns! 

He would also be the first Jew in the WhiteHouse, albeit non professing or practicing!

And as Jay H. Ell has predicted earlier the shambolic GOP, who prayed for the House and the Senate so they could govern and it was granted but "it was not good" because they can’t even elect a leader and are en route to losing the Senate and House seats as well.