BENGHAZI - WHY THE GOP DON’T CARE

What are the GOP doing? Last week America was treated to an insane spectacle, a Benghazi hearing where the GOP proved their House Leader Kevin McCarthy was spot on. He had said the probe was an exercise dressed up in drag to bring down Hillary Clinton’s Presidential poll ratings. The unashamed objective was made even more obvious by the fact that this is the seventh Congress investigation into Hillary, whoops Benghazi, and this one has spent over $4 million dollars already. In addition the session dragged on for 11 hours. (Eight hours longer than the GOP debate that the two GOP front runners, Donald Trump and Ben Carson claimed was too long!). 

IT’S NOT BENGHAZI - IT’S BLUMENTHAL’S E MAILS - STUPID

To put the cherry on the top the rude, abusive, intemperate Republican members spent more time discussing e mails from a Clinton friend Sid Blumenthal - who overnight gained national prominence, just in time to advertise a book that he is writing on Lincoln - than they did on the cause celebre - namely Clinton’s alleged incompetence in not thwarting the terrorist attack. Sid Blumenthal being raised to this status brought a wry comment from David Axelrod, Chief advisor to President Obama and the architect of both his campaigns, to the effect that it was amazing to imagine that this “kibitzer”, (busybody), was alleged to be front and central in the Benghazi conspiracy. Axelrod in an earlier discussion with Jake Tapper of CNN confirmed that Obama had nixed Blumenthal’s appointment to the State Department and that Hillary Clinton had ignored the kibitzer's advice. Several insiders have given the scoop on Blumenthal who is a loyal and close friend to the Clintons and their insights belie the notion that he was the Svengali that influenced Hillary not to give the Benghazi Embassy security. This line of pursuit by the Benghazi investigative committee is a stark reflection of their distorted sense of reality.

COMMITTEE IGNORES WHAT DOESN’T SUIT THEIR POLITICAL AGENDA.

If Gowdy’s crew were really doing their due diligence impartially they would have learned that Ambassador Chris Stevens was, to quote Ryan Grimm a Huffington Post journalist, a “cowboy” when it came to security. He took lots of risks and did so knowingly. He would go unprotected into the Benghazi streets so as to let the locals know that he didn’t view them as enemies. He was dedicated to his job and the Libyan people, speaking Arabic. Speaking on the McGlaughlan report Grimm maintained that “when you take risks like that terrible things happen and that’s what happened here”. He concluded that the reason one wasn’t hearing this from Hillary is that it might come across as blaming the victim. 

However any impartial weighers of the facts would be investigating what role these well documented behaviors played in this tragedy. In addition the Benghazi installation was a CIA installation and what investigation of the CIA is Gowdy executing? Also this was a war and why weren’t Leon Panetta, Secretary of Defense as well as David Petraeus in the hot seat maintained Eleanor Clift of the Daily Beast. She also argued that Hillary played a “minimal” role compared to the others. 

Then to add insult to injury the Chairman of the Benghazi probe,Trey Gowdy, conceded that he had learned nothing new from the marathon hearing and that the investigation had a long way to go and even more would be heard about Mr. Blumenthal! There should be an outcry at the waste of public money that the GOP who, as a rule, are so anxious to protect. If Jay H. Ell was in Congress the first budget he would cut would be that Committee’s. It needs noting that Benghazi hearings have probably exceeded the combined length of Watergate, Iran Contra Scandal. 9/11, and Katrina. 

ITS ALL ABOUT THE HATED CLINTONS - KEN STARR DE JAVU

This is all about the Clintons, what they stand for and most tellingly what they are able to get done, whom are hated with a pathological passion. It is all reminiscent of Ken Starr the Special Prosecutor’s investigation into Hillary and Bill Clinton’s Whitewater Land Deal and whether they murdered, yes murdered, an aide Vince Foster. He went on and on and locked people up who wouldn’t tell him what he wanted to hear to the tune of $70,000,000, yes $70,000,000, till a snitch found him and blurbed what she had been told in confidence, thereby ruining Monica Lewinsky’s life, that Bill Clinton had indulged in incomprehensible childish sexual behavior. Then this distinguished officer of the Court, a learned Judge to boot, entrapped the President on the issue. An action that has been roundly condemned in every legal circle - an impartial  Judge setting up a “Sting” was unheard of till then. (But desperate times need desperate actions). So what had started as an investigation of a land deal and a death, which yielded ziltch, morphed into an enquiry as to the President's sexual behavior. Then the latter was set up and allegedly lied.

The Republican Congress then went one better they spent more of the money, that they say the Federal Government waste, on impeachment hearings, yes impeachment hearings, as to whether Clinton had indeed lied under oath about his pathetic affair. So you can have no doubt that Trey Gowdy and his crew will continue. (By the way there was one positive outcome of Starr’s inquisition it kiboshed his inevitable elevation to the Supreme Court and Starr is in relative oblivion wandering around from University to University whose Boards of Trustees share his opinion of the Clintons. So maybe it was worth $70,000,000). All this recalled to show how low GOP functionaries, even Judges, are prepared to go to sink the Clintons. 

WHO CAN STOP THEM?

Paul Ryan, in spite of everyone’s support, will not be able to stop Gowdy, as he continues to make a spectacle of the GOP, in the hope that he will find something in Blumenthal’s e - mails, like for example, that places him with Hillary Clinton on the night of the Benghazi tragedy. Then Trey has got her because she then would have lied under oath as she maintained that she was alone on that fateful evening. You know if and when that happens no - one will care. They will have turned off the TV just like Fox News did to the hearings.

The underlying fear of a Hillary Presidency is that she has the skill to compromise and move the country forward. This is against the likes of the inaptly named “Freedom Caucus”. They want to compromise on nothing. As a matter of a fact Jay H. Ell is not sure what they want other than to plunge the country into financial chaos. If You don’t believe Jay H. Ell ask Jeb Bush.

It seems as if, like lunatics, they keep on doing things that don’t work. Bill Clinton’s ratings after his impeachment were the highest of his 8 year Presidency. Today he is the most revered political figure in the country and he will certainly do Hillary’s challenge no harm. 

One of the GOP luminaries, Mo Brooks of Alabama has actually given up the ghost on a Republican Presidency and said the moment Hillary is elected she will be impeached.

WHY THIS SELF DESTRUCTIVE PURSUIT?

Why on earth would Gowdy and his ilk want to pursue this counterproductive exercise that everyone conceded made Hillary look Presidential, that raised more money for her campaign than any other single day, that resulted in her netting a 100,000 new donors in the month of October, that embarrassed Fox News, who Eric Wemple in the Washington Post labelled the Benghazi channel, into cutting short their coverage of this supposed public humiliation of Clinton while MSNBC and CNN cheerfully carried on, and which seventy seven percent of Americans have labelled a partisan charade whose intention is to get Hillary. Now seventy seven percent of Americans agree on nothing else. This behavior that Republican commentators concede is giving Hillary the Presidency on a plate continues ad nauseam, shows no signs of abating. Why do the Republicans double down on every losing issue whether it be on the LGBT, immigrant accommodation, women’s reproductive rights or whatever. They are blind to the overall electorate sensibilities. 

The reason they do it all is they just don’t care. 

This is all happening, in the first place, because the GOP is leaderless and rudderless and because they don’t really exist as a cohesive party. There is no one with enough authority to tell petty ridiculous Mr. Gowdy to cut it out because he is ruining what is left of the brand. The way this would have worked in another era is that a John Boehner or a Reince Priebus or a some one in authority for God sake, would have called Chairman Gowdy and told him to cease and desist. So there is no one who has the power or the will to stop him and his mediocre committee from running amuck. If you don’t believe Jay H. Ell ask Jeb Bush.

Then secondly other than attack Hillary, defund Planned Parenthood, reverse Obamacare, deport 12 million “illegals”, Make America Great Again, close down the Government, renege on America’s debt and stop spending on the poor, disabled and unemployed, there is no cohesive platform that this crew has signed onto. They are all running off in different directions championing their pet hates and doing nothing. If you don’t believe Jay H. Ell ask Jeb Bush.

Then thirdly they don’t give a hoot that America’s demographics have changed. They are not interested. The only constituency they are interested in is their own gerrymandered district that ensures a Republican majority. Top priority is not to get out righted in a Primary. They want to be reelected, just to be reelected, and presumably carry on their negativity as there is no real program that has been put forward to take America into the twenty -  first century.  If you don’t believe Jay H. Ell ask Jeb Bush.

So they are not thinking any further than getting themselves back to Washington. So everything that transpires is to that end. They are appealing to the Tea Party base that has hijacked the GOP as only they vote in the Primaries in full force. Everyone else in the moribund Grand Old Party, with the accent on “Old”, either doesn’t care or is too disgusted to attempt to take their party back. Many of the old faithfuls are in denial as to what is happening. The GOP, be it only in name, control both the Senate and the House so what is there to worry? As far as the Presidential race is concerned - “this always happens” - any minute now Jeb will takeover, forgetting that if he does or doesn’t  - it is irrelevant as they are doing nothing to change the narrative to stop Hillary from winning. Also the Senate control looks dicey. They can introduce voter suppression but they cannot gerrymander the State borders. Jay H. Ell believes that is why Jeb Bush Ell has threatened to take his ball back and go home to mommy and daddy.

ANY HOPE? YES HERE COMES MR RYAN RIDING IN ON A WHITE HORSE.

Well the Republican members of Congress have finally agreed on a nominee as Speaker of the House. Ostensibly Paul Ryan will meld this motley crew into a close-knit unit. But the only issues that they have publicly agreed upon is to vote for him - at the end of the day they have to vote for someone and its not going to be Nancy Pelosi - and that he can have time off to visit his family in Wisconsin.Touching! The support was far from unanimous and those that are on board have cautioned that it id not unconditional.

First order of day for Mr. Ryan is to persuade these noodniks to stop with their investigation which he won’t do so he can last to the second day. Unless John Boehner can get him off the hook by settling the outstanding governmental issues, on the second day he needs to persuade them that it is no one’s interests to shut down the government and if he makes that hurdle on day three he has to impress on the caucus that America cannot really declare bankruptcy by reneging on its debt. Then the next order of business should be that maybe they should grow up and realize that banning Planned Parenthood, which the overwhelming majority of the country is against, is not the top priority. Even if Boehner does settle the urgent matters of government Paul Ryan may find these guys more angry than ever as once again they have been sold down the river with the help of the Democrats. Jay H. Ell is not convinced that Ryan is the sharpest tool in the shed. Remember he was the guy that divided the Americans up into “the givers” and “the takers”.

One, however, has to live in hope that Ryan agreeing to head is a sign that his caucus has finally agreed to govern. There has been much sighing of relief at Ryan’s decision and optimism that he will become a great figure when he works with the next Republican President to get their agenda through. What agenda? What Republican President? And that would require dealing with at least the Senate, even if it is still not Republican, not to stop the legislation. And to effect all this the Tea Party caucuses, that are gumming up the works now, will have had change of heart all because Paul is a good family man. 

WHERE IS ALL THIS GOING?

It is hard to believe that the American legislative process has become this dysfunctional. The Founding Fathers created this elaborate check and balance system in the belief that participants would be acting in good faith, cooperating and compromising as they did in setting it all up. Instead the process has been distorted to hold up the day to day workings of government unless some or other narrow ideological demand is being met - the priority de jour is to stop paying society’s share of  health care costs of 3,000,000 women who either have no insurance or poor insurance, i.e. Planned Parenthood. Or there are committees that are entrusted to investigate tragedies that are manipulated for blatant political purposes with no legal accountability. 

The Founding  Fathers are beginning to look naive and must be wondering whether they should have introduced the Westminster model, after all, with its winner take all narrative.

POWERFUL ISRAEL NEEDS A PARADIGM CHANGE

The recent spate of Palestinian terrorist stabbings and responses by the Israeli security forces are threatening to spiral out of control and anger on both sides has reached fever pitch.  One has to know there just has to be a change in the paradigm of violence begetting violence when an angry Israeli mob lynches an innocent Eritrean migrant wrongly believing that he was a terrorist attacker. One or the other side has to show leadership to change this life long bloody narrative. It is not going to be Abbas, who hasn’t even condemned the Palestinian violence, or Hamas who incited the current terror by screeching that Israel were about to take over the Muslim religious sites . So that leaves only Bibi and the Israelis.

It is also really time that everyone took a deep breath and reassesses where Israel stands in the Middle East today. The reason for this is that Bibi frames every untoward event in the uncertainty of the sixties and before as if the only circumstance preventing Israel’s annihilation is some magical and heroic action such as Sharon shrewdly maneuvering himself behind the Egyptian lines as he did in the Yom Kippur war. Also the rhetoric is from the standpoint of a hapless victim surrounded by a sea of giants armed to the teeth. Nothing could be further from the truth - nuclear Israel is arguably the number one nation in the Middle East from every point of view and it is about time the behavior of its leaders reflected that position.

 ISRAEL TODAY  

Two realities have emerged in this modern day Israel. On the one hand the state’s progress is a miracle where in sixty  - five years it has absorbed over 5 million people from many cultures, mostly refugees and integrated them into an economically thriving Middle Eastern democracy. This has been achieved while weathering a non stop secession of wars and terrorist barrages since 1948 and finally emerging as a military and economic powerhouse in 2015. On the other hand the conflict lingers on with the Palestinians on its borders and even more significantly with its 2,000,000 Arab citizens, mostly Palestinians, who in spite of being citizens of Israel with parliamentary representation, believe they are second class citizens in the land of their birth. 

Both these phenomena have been brought into sharp focus by two recent separate developments - the current ongoing upheaval in the Middle East which has resulted in a realignment of the Middle East nation states and two wars and by the senseless murders and attacks of Israelis starting at the Al - Asque mosque.

There is also an intensifying of involvement in the well being of Israel from the diaspora jews as anti semitism is once again on the march. Many see the daily barrage of criticism of the Jewish State as another manifestation of this anti semitism and to a large extent Israel is indeed subjected to a double standard. This diaspora constituency finds it difficult to criticize the current Israeli regime lest it be interpreted as opposition to the very existence of Israel itself.

ISRAEL  NOW THE POWERHOUSE OF THE MIDDLE EAST

On the face of it Israel, in addition to its own economic and military prowess, has never been in a more powerful political and military position in the region. The stalemate of a unified Arab and Muslim world in the Middle East has been cracked open like Humpty Dumpty’s head. Long held together by a common hatred of the Jewish Homeland they have finally splintered into three factions: The Iranian Shia with Iraq and Syria as allies with their terrorist organizations Hezbollah and Hamas in tow; The ISIS fundamentalist Sunni and thirdly the Sunni Gulf States, Egypt and Jordan. Added to the Muslim breakdown are two internecine wars between fundamentalist ISIS versus the Assad's Syria, the Shia coalition and Gulf State Sunni and the four year civil war where Assad’s Syria is wracked in a struggle against rebel forces, ISIS and the Sunni Gulf States.

This fracturing of the Muslim world has resulted in the Gulf States, Egypt and Jordan allying with Israel and Egypt’s call to the Arab world to make peace with Israel. While Iran daily calls for the annihilation of Israel it is ironically weaker as a result of its deal to cut back on its nuclear production. As it painstakingly disassembles its nuclear capability it is more than aware that one false move and a ton of munitions will fall upon its head. And they will be watched like hawks. Russia’s intervention on behalf of Iran’s ally Assad, cynically too, is good news for Israel as that places America on the opposite side. Then there is the promise that whoever replaces Obama is set to abandon his isolationist stance and if election rhetoric is anything to go there will be more open material support for Israel’s position. 

As far as the Palestinian territories are concerned they are eunuch like. Abbas is operating in a power vacuum making threats that are either irrelevant or that he can’t carry out and Hamas, while quietly digging more tunnels, can only expect to be flattened again should it rear its head. It is also slowly sinking in that for the moment a two state solution is impossible. Abbas has not the power to negotiate and Hamas are not interested. To ask Israel to unilaterally hand over the West Bank, after Sharon did just that to Gaza and along came Hamas, shows the all round bias and frustration that has resulted in this decades long standoff

The upshot of all of this that there is no longer the belief that just giving independence to the Palestinians would result in stabilising the war torn Middle East. No more can it be argued if only intransigent Israel would deliver that the Middle East would live happily ever after and we all could sleep more soundly. 

The world must surely believe now that the Israel has an inherent right to conquered land in terms of international law. That it is fanciful to say at the very least that territory won in unprovoked wars that ended eons ago must be unilaterally returned and that the victors must give back residence to those on the opposing side that fled from the country. Europe and even America would be in chaos if the same principles were applied.

 However with regard to indigenous Palestinian peoples there is plenty that might be done and Israel have never been in a more dominant position to make a move to help alleviate the current impasse. 

THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE STATUS QUO - CHANGE THE PARADIGM

However to the everyday citizen in Israel the latter’s new found economic, political and military status is scant comfort when the streets of Israel are no longer safe and an uprising of Palestinian citizens is on the cards. While the terrorist - like attacks should be condemned in the strongest terms, rather than justified, they have evoked an outpouring of grievances from Palestinians within Israel and from the occupied territories. They have also been seen as the last straw by the majority of Israelis who in the same breath cry for a peaceful life for their children but ironically support answers that will ensure that the Palestinian question will remain a festering sore forever.

There is an urgency to defuse the conflict for many many reasons: Rightly or wrongly in this mobile world where skills and money circulate the planet with very little restriction more and more of Israel’s elite are thinking of packing up and going. Secondly, the jewish ethos, as Alan Dershowitz so eloquently writes is one of laws, contracts and covenants. The founders of Israel and as subsequently negotiated at Oslo and ratified by an Israeli majority opted for a two state solution and had as ultimate goal peace with the Palestinians. Now there is little doubt that this has been thwarted in the past mainly by Arab nations or terrorists but from a position of power it is time to make some gestures to those not causing chaos. There are over two million non jews in Israel, nearly all of whom are not terrorists and who are firmly integrated into the economy. Israel cannot risk forcing them to butt out because of the financial and political consequences. Finally, an effort needs to be made to redress Palestinian grievances because it is right and in accordance with a value system that the Israelis proudly affirm and a religion that proclaims again and again to empathize with the stranger, “Because you too were strangers in Egypt”.

 Whatever is being done now is not working. Tough Bibi cow towing to his extremists is just not cutting it. So there is a choice either carry on as per usual and allow more and more anger to smolder with its accompanying violence or try something new. No one is going to give Gaza and the West bank nation status but make an effort to create an infrastructure that rewards those who actually don’t want this violence. Create a life for Palestinians as far as possible so they may vent their spleens on the real architects of their hopelessness. And for heavens sake stop building and expanding settlements. 

The emphasis should be on the rights and the dignity of individual Palestinians both within and without Israel proper. Israel should make an effort to make the Israeli Palestinians real Israelis instead of patronisingly and even abusingly tolerating them. They are a minority in Israel that are not fully achieving. Therefore create the opportunities for them to fulfill their potential. If necessary introduce affirmative action. As for the Palestinians in the territories give those that demonstrate that just want peace and happiness work permits and dignity. Of course there is a risk but as is apparent there is even a bigger risk by not doing so. These are just suggestions but the idea should be worked on. Just like the Israelis are still around sixty five years later so are these Palestinians.

Change the paradigm or assuredly the violence will never stop. If one tries there is always hope. Of course Abbas and Hamas et al will reject all these moves but they are not aimed at them.

MORE OF THE SAME

To date the debate from the leadership on both sides of the divide has been sterile and inflammatory. Abbas sticking to his narrative that any Israeli response to violence is, by definition, a disproportionate response, outdid himself when he claimed that Israelis executed a 13 year old after he had attempted murder. He also maintained that Israel was attacking Muslim Holy sites and added fuel to the fire by talking of “filthy jewish feet” in Muslim holy places. The Palestinian child was alive and being cared for in a hospital and no holy sites have been violated. Abbas one has no control over. He answers to a different constituency. Not so Bibi.

As for the gratuitous offers from all and sundry to run the holy places for Israel that is really not going to fly. 

Netanyahu never fails to disappoint. His interventions have not exactly been designed to calm things down.He harks back to the past including a ludicrous statement that the Palestinians persuaded Hitler to exterminate the jews. He maintained provocatively that this low intensity Intifada is not going anywhere. He spouts out loud prior to Kerry’s arrival - “No concessions to Abbas”. He is not going to reward terrorism. Who is asking him to?  Reward those who are not involved in terrorism. Do something positive. Everyone knows that Israel has been a victim of aggression and that these murderous attacks are unconscionable. Move on to create a climate where they are totally unacceptable. It won't be easy with all the mistrust but try. If acting now in midst of crisis is uncomfortable let him state his intention to do so when the violence ends.  Deprive the apologists the rationalization of “What can you expect? It is as a result of hopelessness, They have nothing to lose”. It is in this area of propaganda that Israel is outmaneuvered.

Netanyahu needs to get his story straight. On the one hand he rightly and proudly points to the fact that there are 17 Arab Knesset members but now has used the occasion to attack them all as a result of the highly seditious remarks of a Knesset Member Haneen Zoabi. Nor has he curbed repeated charges by some of his cabinet who accuse all the Arab Knesset Members of being terrorists and have ordered them to hand back their citizenships.

Netanyahu can play the current unrest down with his usual bombast or play it up, depending on the audience but his response is to stamp it out by braggado and more repressive action and legislation. This will do nought to ameliorate the fears of all those Israelis and Palestinians scouring behind locked doors and peering into the empty eerie streets now and thereafter.

ANATOMY OF THE CURRENT CRISIS

Jay H. Ell marvels at how nonchalantly the world reacted towards the cold blooded murders that precipitated this escalating violence. This being inflamed by unprecedented obscene internet outpourings including videos on how to stab a jew. There were however incidents that were forerunners to this current flareup that gave credibility to the propagandists’ infamy that Israel were going to take over the Muslim holy sites. Under the existing agreement only Arabs are allowed to pray at the Al - Asque compound. (To get some empathy going, the Mosque means to the locals what the Western Wall signifies to the Israelis - a religious and a cultural shrine). Prior to the stabbings there were large demonstrations by religious right wing Israelis, at Al- Asque, which lasted several days, demanding the right to pray there as well. The protestors were under the protection of Israeli security forces. The subsequent reassurances by the Israeli authorities that the status quo would still remain were lukewarm.

Here in lies the source of much of the problem from the Israeli side. It is the far right, backed by Netanyahu, that have grabbed the agenda whether it be by increasing settlements or by inflammatory rhetoric that has hobbled any possibility of creating innovative solutions. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

As argued Israel is now in the position to make some moves firstly to meet the needs of its own Palestinian citizenry, (they have an endless list of grievances as to how they are being discriminated against), and start offering some rights to those Palestinians who see the futility in this no win struggle. Unhappily this will meet with opposition from the Israeli right but do they want to see their children die year after year in a battle that never resolves? What is their end game? The Israeli right also need to be taken on. They do not have a monopoly on Israel’s future. Hopefully some positive moves might evoke leadership from those Palestinians that see cooperation as the answer. This would be a slow process but Israel are in the driving seat at the moment as the undisputed power in the region and are in a position to dictate the shots. What have they got to lose? 

Make a start Bibi or how do you ultimately see this playing out - an ongoing conflict where you again and again show them who is the boss as Israel bleeds blood and treasure and the Palestinian dead are proclaimed as martyrs? 

Or even better do the statesmanlike thing Bibi and call it quits.

CAN BERNIE BE ANOTHER BARACK ?

There is an irresistible desire to compare the populist Bernie Sanders with the populist Barack Obama who beat out the self same Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Presidential nomination 8 years ago. In both situations the underdog was initially way behind in the polls but steadily narrowed the gap. Both were improbables that attract record crowds and have messages that resonate. Both were considered outsiders from traditional party politics thereby attracting a younger demographic that otherwise were totally disillusioned with Washington. Both competed against the establishment candidate Hillary.  Both are transformative figures. Both are charismatic but Barack is up there with Martin Luther King in some of his orations. 

So before someone can say to Bernie, "I know Barack Obama and you are no Barack Obama", let us see whether it can happen again and look at what did the first Democratic debate show if anything?

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE - A WALKOVER FOR HILLARY?

Jay H. Ell will resist the temptation to dwell too long on the differences between the Democratic forum and the raucous, unruly and undignified Republican circuses and limit his comments to the Democratic race. It is however fair to contrast the professional way the Democratic participants stuck to the issues even when confronting their opponents. The glaring difference that the debates have illustrated was that the GOP is still racked by division and the Democrats are, in spite of shadings, all on the same page.

There appear to be two spins on the outcome of the first debate  - those of the pundits and those of the man in the street that, on their face, appear to be diametrically opposed. 

The consensus of those in the know is that Hillary nailed it. Here are examples of some of the headlines: Washington Post - Hillary Towers Over Her Rivals; Time - How Hillary Won the Debate; Fox News - Well of Course Hillary Won; The Daily Beast - Hillary Scorches Her Rivals; The Rasmussen Reports - Hillary Sweeps the Tables; Newsmax - Hillary Blunts Out Bernie With Debate Showing; Morning Joe - Hillary Took Charge; The New Yorker - Hillary Wins Big in Vegas and New York Times - Hillary Clinton Turns Up the Heat on Bernie Sanders. They all confirmed what the TV pundits enthused post debate - Hillary wowed them.

As Eugene Robinson wrote in The Washington Post, "The GOP were right to fear Clinton".

Not only, according to the poo bahs, did Hillary polish off Bernie and the other three no name brands she put paid to Joe Biden who was waiting in the wings for the call. There appears to be no need for him to enter the race at this late stage as he is in addition a distant third in the polls. His non entry will help Hillary even further.

So all in all a pretty good night at the Vegas tables for Hillary. She broke the bank at Wynns. (Wynn by the way is an out and out Republican). But just like at the tables there can be more than one winner and that turned out to be The Berne.

THE MAN IN THE STREET

Inevitably there are the focus groups and CNN had a large one made up of Democrats and Independents who to everyone’s amazement thought Bernie had won. Obviously the criteria being put into play by the professionals were not the same as the voters in the focus group. Then Jay H. Ell listened to a morning talk show on National Public Radio where all the pros lauded Hillary for her impeccable performance and then they opened the phones, the e mails and the tweets. Lo and behold most of those that bothered to respond thought good old Bernie had won the debate! There is an online Democratic site “Democrats Unity” that has a straw poll with Bernie getting 49% support and Hillary just 20% of a 155,000 persons who clicked in. In the two early state primaries polls Bernie is closing in on Hillary in Iowa and is ahead in New Hampshire

Bernie by the way had 4,000 debate watch parties with a total attendance of a 100,000. He had with Hillary the highest collection of donations last cycle, $26,000,000. All his were made up of small donations. Then the following day after the debate his war chest  expanded by another $2,000,000. All made up of tiny amounts.

You know who was doing this last time out - Barack Obama! 

WHAT IT OBVIOUSLY MEANS AT THE MOMENT 

The fact is that an obscure disheveled elderly politician who is not even a Democrat but an Independent who is an unashamed socialist appears to be threatening the odds on favorite to win the Democratic nomination. This has to mean something. What it means is that the public are fed up with politics and politicians as usual. Bernie, who honeymooned in Russia many moons ago, tells it as it is. When he concedes to Hillary that her e - mails are a ridiculous diversion it is not considered a mistake of a clumsy neophyte it is rather perceived as genuineness of a patriot who does not wish to score points but rather debate issues. 

The Berne's message of redistribution of wealth is unadulterated and his cry that all the other candidates are contaminated by money rings true. He has no link at all to any moneyed corporation. While Hillary, for the most part is sounding honest, she still is a politician who has links to corporations and who one therefore can have legitimate doubts that she might not put her agenda into effect. The fact that Hillary is picture perfect and he isn’t makes him more authentic. His stumble over gun control which would be a major big deal for any other Democrat was given a pass as he reminded all, with pathos, of the fact of life that guns mean different things in his rural State as opposed to an urban setting. Even Bernie has to get elected the faithful nod. He is totally at sea outside his message but at the moment his cry to economic war seems to be enough. The mantra that the country is run by fat cats who control the politicians for their financial gain and to everyone else’s detriment has sunk in to his chunk of the electorate and is overriding every other factor at the moment.

 BERNIE AND TRUMP?

Now the one feature Bernie and Donald have in common is they are not regarded as politicians. One can argue that what the Vermont senator represents to the left is what the business tycoon epitomizes for the right. In fact the disillusioned on the right have been around, as the Tea Party, for some time and have already taken over the GOP. However they are still not to happy with politicians and they want The Donald and if not him Carson and if not him Ted Cruz, who although a politician is hated by them all. The Tea Party are massively disheartened. Their party cannot even elect a Leader of the House of Representatives. All they have for their efforts is anarchy.

So there is a similarity between the Right and the Left and that is that they are both fed up with politics as usual, as are their standard bearers, The Berne and The Donald. Hillary is more than just a politician she is the Establishment. (One wonders what the short tempered Donald would have to say if the Congress held up his Government. He would simply just fire them Jay H. Ell supposes).

 The Berne has a coherent message and one does not know what will come out next out of The Donald’s mouth. Interestingly Donald like Bernie has not got one penny from the fat cats. So the two represent something in common on different sides of the political spectrum.

 BERNIE IS NO OBAMA AND IS DEALING WITH A DIFFERENT HILLARY 

While Trump has to have a chance at the GOP nomination one cannot imagine Bernie emerging triumphant as the latter is not only not a Barack, with the machine that he had behind him, he has a different Hillary to deal with. Obama had plenty of the moneyed people. While Barack may have not been The Establishment he had the not inconsiderable Chicago establishment and machine behind him as well as luminaries like Democratic Senate Leader, Harry Reid. In addition he had a wide embracing knowledge of all aspects of government. Sanders is really a one message candidate. Outside of inequities in wealth and the concentration of resources into the 1% there is a resounding void.

Clinton’s expected opponent would be the old GOP Establishment’s Jeb and currently she is leaving him standing. If her opponent was Trump the demographics would kill him. So she really does look the part. She has an encyclopedic grip on the issues, is relaxed, appears less contrived and all the cognoscenti cannot be hailing her in a vacuum. She is the only one standing that is qualified for the job. So the almost harpy attitude of the last cycle with her and Bill losing it at the realization of what had originally seemed a formality, is not in evidence this time around. They have had 8 years to put it right.  

Most of her obstacles are parting just like the Red Sea did for Moses. Supposedly Benghazi and her e mails were hurdles but what with Head of the GOP in the House of Representatives admitting the whole thing is political and just now a Republican Member of the House agreeing that it was just designed to discredit her, the hearings will have no credibility. Added to that is a Republican staffer who claims he was fired because he resisted the pressure to gear the process in a purely partisan direction. That will have legs as a legal challenge is pending. Then you had Bernie himself echoing the mood of the Democratic constituency that they are not going to be waste time with her e mails. 

Now that the media are treating her as if she has been reinvented, her Benghazi hearings will be broadcast live. Another opportunity for her to shine. With what has transpired in an investigation that has gone on longer than Watergate the GOP can only look like hopeless bullies and her a dignified and capable victim.

She is taking nothing for granted as her highly rehearsed flawless performance at the debate showed. She is organizing like mad. She has a ton of money and PACS galore so even if she loses Iowa and New Hampshire she will win South Carolina and Nevada and all those Southern caucuses and Michigan and Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin and on and on and will have all the super delegates thrown in. It is just so hard to imagine Bernie with his one stump speech and being clueless on foreign affairs marching through America increasing his support. Remember he still is well behind Hillary in the national polls. Hillary is leading 2 to 1.

But the fact that makes Jay H. Ell so sure that Hillary is the business is that when the groups that support The Bern are asked who they think the Democratic nominee will be they overwhelmingly answer Clinton. Ultimately they all know to get things done you have to have the skills and political connections to effect this. In this department the Clintons are numero uno. Meanwhile everyone is enjoying themselves and going along for the ride. 

GOP SHOUD TAKE NO SOLICE FROM BERNIE OR ANYTHING ELSE

Sanders, whatever happens, has at least richly added to the conversation unlike Trump, who himself is “rich, really rich” and talks nonsense about deporting 12 million people and building a wall to rival the wall of China. Or Carson who blames the victims of a mass shooting. Or Cruz who cheers on the Government being shut down and is living proof that the Tea Party are a party of protest not government. Or Fiorina who sees things that nobody else sees. Or Rubio who changes his position every other day. Or Huckabee who maintains thieves should be sold into slavery….. (No wonder poor Sheldon is having nightmares as to who to give his money to).

What with the Benghazi e - mail scandal fizzling the GOP seem to have no agenda other than to pray that Bernie gets the Democratic nomination. However in the unlikely event that Bernie executes he would probably beat any GOP candidate. The same demographic works for him as does for Hillary and in this milieu droves of Republican supporters may just stay at home. Also don’t forget Bernie is soft on guns! 

He would also be the first Jew in the WhiteHouse, albeit non professing or practicing!

And as Jay H. Ell has predicted earlier the shambolic GOP, who prayed for the House and the Senate so they could govern and it was granted but "it was not good" because they can’t even elect a leader and are en route to losing the Senate and House seats as well.

PUTIN AND OBAMA - NEW WORLD VIEWS

The two cold war adversaries, the USA and USSR, through their leaders Vladimir Putin and Barak Obama have cast a totally new outlook on how they view their respective countries’ role in the Middle East specifically and the world generally. The Middle East scenario has dramatically changed in the past few months and Putin is climbing in while Obama is generally climbing out. Putin has added a worrying wrinkle for Israel as he hinted to Obama in their New York talks that he resented Israel’s interference in Syria! 

The conventional wisdom is that both of them have lost it - Barak, who is abandoning American supremacy and Vladimir who is recklessly plunging in where angels should fear to tread. However their behavior is far from unpurposeful and there is a consistency to their moves which is striking. In short Putin yearns for the old USSR glorious Imperial days and Obama is becoming more and more isolationist harking back to the USA in the twenties and thirties between the two World Wars.

The other plank in the American Premier’s platform is making peace with the world. Rapprochement with Cuba has been a priority, the Iranian nuclear deal and massive Trade Pacts have been assiduously worked upon and he has achieved his objectives in all of them. Against all odds the Senate voted to give him “fast track” authority to negotiate trade deals. His most recent accord with the Pacific rim countries involves 12 countries and forty percent of world trade. The deal in geo political terms is enormous and is a counter to China in their own backyard - a point missed by most commentators to date. Like all his transformative moves this has already raised the hackles of members on both sides of the aisle but Jay H. Ell’s gut feeling is that the Republicans will push the Pacific Pact through.

THE NEW MIDDLE EAST (ME) - THE PALESTINIAN/ISRAELI
CONFLICT

The central focus in the Middle East has changed from the Israeli Palestinian struggle to the battle between two Sunni factions and the Shiites with Israel lining up with the Gulf State Sunnis, Egypt and Jordan. No longer can anyone claim with a straight face that there would be peace in the region if only Israel would give the Palestinians their chunk of land. Abbas is threatening to tear up the Oslo accords a circumstance that would have previously sent diplomats scurrying  back and forth to avert a fate worse than armageddon but it barely made page two. Bibi made a monumental speech to the UNO and not only was no one there to listen if he hadn’t put it in Facebook no one would have known about it. Apparently he paused for 44 seconds and that is about the only content of his speech that got coverage. A far cry from the screeds that poured out when he addressed the UN and Congress last year. A reality he would be wise to take note off. His appearance last time was seen very much in the context of the local political scene where he was snubbing Obama and the Democrats in favor of the GOP.

Before leaving the topic of the Palestinian Israeli conflict just one recent development Abbas in his frustration is inciting more and more violence. He hasn’t quite yet called for the third Intifada but he is not far off. His tactic is simple. He will provoke a strong Israeli response which he will then use to whip up opinion against Israel. It works all the time and he then changes the narrative to a general attack on Israel and their denial of Palestinian rights. Inevitably in the retailiation there is civilian death and condemnation of Israel for not knowing that Paestinians put women and children in mumition sites. (Blog: Abbas and Arafat Same DNA - So Let's Get Real).

This incitement is out of character stuff for Mahmoud but he is desperate as his slips off the center ME stage. It is unlikely to get him anywhere cause nobody is really interested. Yes they will shove up his flag at UNO, make him an honorary member of the club and back his resolutions but there are far bigger fish to fry in the region. No lesser think tank than The Brookings Institute believes the more realistic approach to the age old conflict would be for both sides just to concentrate on Palestinian rights and worry about the two State solution later. 

Just one worrying aspect the religious violence is racheting up at the Temple Mount. Fundamentalists from both sides are confronting one another and Bibi has stepped in to make the Israelis stick their part of the deal. However, the Palestinian aggession far outweighs the odd Israeli fundamentalist outrage and although the rest of the world are not much interested the Israelis are and very soon a counter offensive will be unleashed that needless to say everyone will condemn.

SYRIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

So back to Syria which is the nidus of the region’s instability. The country is in a shambles four years into a catastrophic civil war that has splintered it into areas controlled by various rebel groups, a small area that Assad still is in charge of and ISIS who has created a blood stained caliphate together with the land it has captured from Iraq. There are 4 million refugees as a result of the Syrian civil war who are pouring into Europe unhinging the European Union but not fuzzing Putin one bit. He has on his blinkers and is focussed on one great big objective - his good self and a resuscitation of Russia’s glory days going back to Peter the Great. 

The Russian Tzar is going into the changing Middle East with a vengeance while the American Commander in Chief is not much interested in being a Commander. Nowhere is this more evident than in their respective policies on Syria which fit into their overall philosophy for the future. 

Putin is looking for every opportunity to expand Russian influence in the world. Part of his modus operandi is to be on whatever side Barak isn’t on. In the breakdown in the Middle East with its three emerging power blocks he has chosen to mix in with a vengeance. He has joined the Shiite faction lead by Iran. The latter have Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas in their stable and are vying for dominance in the region and the Muslim world while punctuating their imperialist aims with dire threats to annihilate America and Israel. Putin, behaving like the old comrades of yore - saying one thing and doing another - is openly siding with Assad of Syria in his fight against the rebels, bombing the latter’s strongholds. While paying lip service to the mantra that ISIS is the region’s and the world’s greatest threat he is supporting Assad rather than getting rid of the Islamic fundamentalists. He is there with a veritable arsenal, air power, a naval base, missiles that travel a 1000 miles and “volunteer” troops. This is no mean commitment and in characteristic bravado he doesn’t give a hoot what anyone else says. 

He sees his future in an intact Assad.

His recent infringements of his yesterday’s friend,Turkey’s air space which resulted in a virulent response from the Turks and NATO which have been shrugged off by the old USSR KGB operative as just part of doing business. This attitude of Vladimir is JUST pervasive - Crimea Ukraine - he just does not care.

Obama has just stuck to his limited agenda in all this. He is not going to declare war on Putin for bombing one of his rebel allies and says so. He will express irritation but that is it. There is no way that he sees himself climbing boots and all into the region. He is bombing ISIS a bit and claiming that they are the real worry and supporting selected anti Assad rebel groups. The latest reports indicate that he is even giving up on that.  

In retrospect he has done what he ran on -  only one war to fight and that was in Afghanistan to get rid of the Taliban and Osama. He pulled out of Iraq and nothing but nothing is going to get him going back there. All the taunts in the world, from the likes of McCain that he is turning the land of the brave into the land of the meek and letting Putin walk all over him and the USA, does not move him one bit. In short let the Middle East sort itself out no more American blood will be spilled and not too much treasure spent either. 

The American Chief cannot see this ending with Assad in place. He has to go! That is where he and Putin really part ways.

As far as Israel is concerned they can all shoot each other up - whoever wins wants to annihilate them. Other than the odd sortie where they see their interests threatened and humanitarian aid which they afford there line is similar to Obama's on Syria and ISIS for the moment.

WHAT ABOUT OUR ALLIES THE ISRAELIS AND THE GULF STATES?

But how does the two great powers current policy play with Israel and the Gulf States? Obama has reassured that he has Israel’s back and so far, when the crunch is on, he has delivered. But his laissez affaire attitude to the whole region has the Israelis and their allies tearing their hair out. The Iranian nuclear deal resulted in a cleavage between the two nations that has not been witnessed in decades. This chasm was undoubtedly exacerbated by Netanyahu, addressing Congress, with neither Boehner or him informing Obama of the invitation and with Bibi to this minute screaming the odds about the “bad deal”. Jay H. Ell believes that the deal was ill advised but is convinced, like large sections of the Israeli military and security apparatus is, that Israel and its Gulf allies can take any out any facility if and when the time arises. In addition as a result of the “bad deal” Israel is much more powerful in the region with the Gulf States, Egypt and Jordan as part of their new block. That with Egypt appealing to the Arab world to the make peace with the Jewish State must really warm the cockles of Bibi’s heart. 

So Barak has not yet been put to the test as to whether he has abandoned his allies. Jay H. Ell feels notwithstanding all the anger that his inexplicable Iran stance has engendered should Israel really be pressured he will deliver. 

Israel should be far more worried about Vladimir who prior to his Syrian adventure was very pro the Israeli State. Netanyahu was off to Moscow when the old KGB operative placed all that hardware in Assad’s hands, all of which could easily hit Israel. If push came to shove one has to believe that the Russian Premier is far more likely to sell out on Israel than is the American President. The Russian Insider News reported that Putin told Obama that he would clip Israel’s wings in stopping its attacks on Syrian soil. What a chutzpah from this Johnny Come Lately to the region telling Israel what it can and can’t do in the Middle East. 

PUT A SOCK IN IT BIBI

Bibi has to be wishing that he hadn’t been so arrogant with Barak. (Why oh why couldn’t he have done what other disputing Israeli PM’s have done - discuss this in private. Why this need to humiliate him?) How he would now love to be able to pick up the phone and seek reassurance from the American Commander in Chief. Why he burned those boats is just as much a reflection of his childish personality as pouting Putin’s behavior is towards him. He can hardly expect that the guy whom he snubbed in his own backyard is going to dial and say, “Don’t worry Bibi”. He is just going to let him stew. 

Now Bibi just in case you want to start maneuvering against Barak again, stop!  The GOP are in a mess at the moment and have other projects. You can rely on McCain, Graham et al to look after it all. You butt in again you will once again be used by the GOP in their fight with the Dems and continue the partisan divide on Israel that you helped to create and that does not serve the cause. 

So just sit tight.

AT THE END OF THE DAY WHAT COULD HAPPEN

Whichever way one looks at the scenario the future ain’t what it used to be:

 * While Israel still has threats of boycotts, disinvestment and sanctions there is nothing really threatening their existence at the moment. Abbas is doing more of the same with the objective of getting the world’s hackles up but he like Netanyahu has to appreciate that they are the sideshow at the moment. Netanyahu will clamp down hard on the unrest. The pair’s problems are far from over but nobody is going to get involved while Syria and ISIS are occupying prime time . 

* Russia like all colonial powers and the wannabes will never learn. In Putin’s desire to play with the big boys and distract the Russians from their domestic economic woes he is on the slippery slope to escalation. Next stop is getting into Iraq. He is on a roll. The biggest insult to him is the fact that the good old USA won’t even take him on. Other than to make arrangements not to get in each other’s way and moan diplomatically, Barak is not giving them the time of day. The Turks and the Saudis, who have a big stake in backing the Syrian rebels, may not be as sanguine about Moscow’s proactive role in the region. If Putin thinks he can scare them off he has another think coming. The Saudis and their Gulf allies are in a major battle with Iran for domination in the region and Muslim world and are not going to let a key Iranian ally like Assad off the hook so easily. If they and Egypt can forgive and forget their millennia old enemy Israel over this they are not going to be frightened off by Putin’s bluster.

* Putin’s best case scenario is that by his strong arm presence he can “force” the USA, the Saudis, the Turks and other parties to let Assad survive in a post war truce. If he can he will be the broker of this catatonic impasse with all the prestige that accompanies such a powerful mover and shaker. Iran will be ecstatic as its empire will still be intact. Then according to script everyone can cheerfully go on and fight ISIS. One fat hope that that can happen. Putin does not begin to understand the dynamic of the Middle East. This is not some regional barnyard scrap over a fence this is a struggle over the future of Islam. He just cannot march in and takeover.

* So Putin better be contemplating Plan B.

* As a sop to the USA Russia will join in and attack ISIS as well. This does not change the equation however. 

* America is in election mode and about the only issue that every prospective presidential candidate agrees upon is that Israel’s existence is top priority, If its survival was threatened there is no way that America would not intervene. Israel is not going to back off if they view Syria a threat and Obama, even if he wanted to, is not going to stand by if Putin threatens Israel. So it appears that Vladimir has not really thought this one through. 

To be continued and all bets are off one just does begin to guess how this cookie will crumble.