TRUMP, THE MEDIA, RATINGS AND REALITY

The great American Presidential reality show continues with the media dictating the script. Jay H. Ell maintains that the reality show that they are creating is far from reality. The media creates a situation and then wails at the outcome of their manipulations. Major case in point is The Donald - they cover every flicker of his eyelid and every tussle of his mane and then ask themselves why is he front and central to the debate with all that media attention? They focus ad nauseam on Hillary’s e mails, like anyone really gives a hoot what server they came from, and then rhetorically cry , “Why is no - one reporting on her detailed policy positions?” However the myth that it is all meaningless is off base as their contrived handling creates a reality. 

IT IS THE MEDIA NOT THE MESSAGE

Just to recap Jay H. Ell’s well worn thesis. The media today has one objective that is to increase its ratings as the latter are used to sell advertising. Broadly speaking the media create the news and then report and comment on the news they have created. The Presidential race has been morphed into a reality show with big stakes. The objective is to create a close horse race. The winner becomes the leader of the world’s largest nation. What could be a bigger prize? There is more than a voyeuristic interest in the outcome as the result impacts on viewers’ lives - health care, taxes or whether one’s relatives and friends can stay in the country or not, for example. All this has the potential for amassing big audiences and therefore high ratings and  costly advertisements. The media in some instances favor one side over the other making them very influential players, however all that is secondary to their mission of making money. So carrying on with this argument the last scenario they need is that the winner of the two year Presidential race is a foregone conclusion. The devotees would loose interest and the fourth estate might have to produce their own material instead of being provided with actors and a script, gratis, courtesy of the Presidential contenders and their campaign staff. The tighter that the media can make these horse races the greater the engrossment of the viewership.

THE DEBATES - CARLY FOR PRESIDENT?

Besides the day to day coverage of the campaign there are the debates. These are being conducted in the main by Fox News and CNN. These channels dictate who are going to participate who gets asked what question, who asks them and so on. There have been two Republican Party presidential debates and the consensus is that in both of them the current leader for the GOP Presidential nomination, The Donald, has been hammered mercilessly. If this is indeed so, which Jay H.Ell believes it is, this could have the effect of bringing the GOP contenders closer together thereby heightening the interest, i.e. viewership and thereby ratings. (Incidentally, Jay H. Ell has previously blogged on the control that Murdoch’s Fox News has over the Republican Party).

Now viewing the latest debate the overt agenda was to put The Donald on the spot and create contestants that could challenge him. Then having done so report “objectively” that Trump has received a setback and by implication no longer a shoo in. Carly Fiorina, and Christie faired well and now newly represent challenges to Trump.  CNN’s handling of this second GOP debate was outrageously bad. They were unashamedly into the sensationalism and tightening the race. There was no pretense at allowing equal time for all the contenders. For example two very serious contenders were all but ignored - Ben Carson and Scott Walker. 

 Jay H. Ell believes that the media would welcome a female contest for the Presidency between Carly and Hillary. So Ms. Fiorina was fed the lines and she delivered. Then the selfsame press reported on her sensational success. She was the hit of the evening and has been catapulted into contention. There have been some serious efforts to promote Ms Florina into prime time and this was the latest. A few one liners are apparently enough to turn her into a knockout and even better the President of the United States. When it gets nearer the nomination it will be time to clip her wings and all the tawdry details that halted her senatorial campaign against Barbara Boxer in California will be taken out of wraps. She is a more subtle megalomaniac than the Donald. At Hewlett - Packard  she created a right royal mess from which they still haven’t recovered. Her nickname was “scissors” because her contribution was to fire tens of thousands of employees while buying several corporate jets - The Donald at least has a number of successes amongst his four corporate bankruptcies some of which he had personally signed security for. 

THE DEMS NON RACE

Down at the other end of the scale Hillary, every betting man’s obvious choice to be the next POTUS, is being steadfastly ignored as a serious candidate. The Dem primary issues to date are not centered around income inequality, immigration, foreign policy, women’s rights rather they are about e mails and the like. The same lame media game applies here. All their coverage is on her e mails and then they smugly comment that the issue does not want to go away! Don’t you know that she was secretly dealing with the Kremlin and selling America’s secrets while canvassing for the best recipe on gefilte fish so as to impress her in laws? 

Bernie Saunders, a sweet sincere man, has been drawing crowds like any rockstar does. His message is pure and simple and is bringing great happiness and hope to those who are seeking the holy grail in politics. He is rating prime time coverage juxtaposed next to Hillary who is seen to be shuffling her e mails. Even the media cannot muster enough energy to push the other two Democratic Governor contenders whose names Jay H. Ell can never remember. Of course even the media recognize that grand daddy Bernie is chanceless so what about Joe Biden who in his previous runs couldn’t ever reach ten percent in the polls? Smoking Joe, the man you would like to go pub crawling with should not be encouraged. Term limits are part of the electorate’s unconscious and Joe represents Obama’s third term. Even the most ardent Obama hater has been relieved that Joe never had to take over. 

So here is what is really going 

1. THE TEA PARTY IS THE GOP- ITS OFFICIAL

The big news as to what is going on is that the party of Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan and the Bushs' no longer exists. After 8 years of pretending they are all one big happy family the Tea Party faction finally found a credible, (sic), leader - Donald Trump and he unceremoniously hijacked the Party. He unashamedly trumpeted the Tea Party’s social value system, misogynism, immigration policy and xenophobia. Bill O’ Reilly of Fox News has at last found a standard bearer to lead America back to being a white man’s country. Initially the establishment GOP resisted Trump’s ascendency and even recruited Fox News to tame him but he prevailed. More significantly he dragged the whole Presidential field into the Tea Party with him. Unlike in the last election where the establishment’s candidate Romney always lay second in the polls to the Tea party candidate du jour, Donald has remained the pacemaker and between him and Carson, a more kinder, softer and gentler but crazier version of The Donald, they have consistently represented fifty percent of the GOP electorate that were polled. If one adds to that third or fourth placed Cruz it comes to closer to sixty percent. Jeb is less than 10 percent and Carly is even less. 

Trump has poisoned the well on the Hispanics muting the pussy footing apologists like Marc Rubio and Jeb Bush who needed to go along with Trumpism in order to compete. It is hard to imagine that this demographic can ever be won back this election cycle. Trump’s loutish behavior may result in him not being the contender at the end of the day but he has been the agent for change. To measure the extent of the fundamental shift in the GOP’s center of gravity all that is needed is to reflect on the fact that Reince Priebus, the big pooh bah of the Republican Party, came to visit The Donald to ensure his support for whoever became the elected GOP nominee. By so doing Reince ensured that all the other candidates would back Donald or anyone like him should they emerge triumphant at the end of the Primaries. Put another way everyone would be expected to back a Tea Party standard bearer if one emerged.

This success has emboldened the Tea Party members in Congress who are threatening to shut down the government again if they don’t get their way on Planned Parenthood. The establishment leadership of McConnell and Boehner are resisting with all their might as they know what a no no that is among the whole electorate. 

So the takeover is official.

2. THE GOP CANNOT WIN THE PRESIDENCY IN 2016

Another non media reality is they do not reflect that it is almost impossible for the GOP to win a national election. Memories are so short it is pathetic. Remember that the GOP working party after the last election pointed out their demographic problem but the results of that assessment are being ignored. The reason that Obama beat Romney, to the disbelief of the faithful, is that the demographics were lined up against him. Contrary to the belief of the Anne Coulters’ of the world there are not enough geriatric white males to vote a Republican in in a national election. Coulter a big Donald supporter turned heads when she complained at the attention the Republican hopefuls were giving to Israel by screaming, “How many f … king jews do these people think there are in the United States.” Added to Trump’s tacit support of the demand of a questioner to get rid of the Muslims and his non response to the statement that Obama was a Muslim and not an American has the foreboding of the election turning ugly.

 The main swing demographic that matters is the Hispanic vote. Not only has Obama made Presidential moves to lighten their immigration burden the Republicans have opposed these and as mentioned The Donald has taken the issue to a new xenophobic level. He is going to build a wall to rival the great wall of China to keep them out.  He has made the Hispanics and Hispanicness his and therefore the GOP’s defining electoral issue. Even those Hispanics that prefer smaller government or are against abortion cannot but help feeling offended. In this nation of immigrants can you imagine how the jews would vote if Trump had said the undocumented jews must be deported and believe you me there must be some that are undocumented. Or had he taken on the Indians or Irish, for example, those groups would make his attack the defining issue that would motivate their vote. It is interesting to note that an Hispanic leader maintained that there was a certain amount of apathy amongst the Hispanic demographic but Trump had given them an impetus to vote against the GOP.

Let us even argue that the demographic of women could be neutralized by a Fiorina but even that would not be enough to change the tide. It is incidentally hard to imagine Carly Fiorina doing that as all she has got going for her is that she is a woman. She has done nothing to further women’s issues and all the leading feminine movements support Hillary. Also breaking in Congress is the Tea Party determination to defund Planned Parenthood or close down government. Fiorina is against planned parenthood that has overwhelming female support. If she were for it she could kiss her chances of the GOP nomination goodbye.

The influential LGBT group will stick with the Dems and even if the youth of the Obama coalition split between the two parties it is not enough.

So unless Donald after he deports the illegal  Hispanics disenfranchises the Hispanic citizens as well the GOP has a tough row to hough. 

3. HILLARY WILL WIN THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

The media have all but written off Hillary. They are inculcating a de ja vu Obama feeling about Hillary’s Democratic candidacy. While Hillary is not the most exiting or charismatic candidate and tends to get irritated with the media, (they just simply hate her she maintains), she is still the odds on favorite to win the nomination and the Presidency. Hillary is not terribly good at running for President she just doesn’t feel the beat. By now she should have known when the e mail controversy came out she should have chucked the server at them before they even knew one existed. She is so anxious not to make mistakes that everything looks so contrived. She may even lose Iowa and New Hampshire but she hasn’t got an Obama opposing her and she has taken a leaf out of the latter’s playbook and is sowing up the Southern States delegates. In addition all the Super delegates are going her way. So wah.

4. GOP NOMINATION - HAS IT GOT TO BE JEB?

Before starting there are 20 or so contenders very few that need go away as they are fueled up with money that the Supreme Court allowed them to get. Remember if you are a billionaire you don't need a Derby winner in your stable you need a President! 

The media have got to know that Jeb is the nominee till otherwise proved. Although it is difficult to envisage but at the same time it is even more difficult to believe it won’t be Jeb. If it is Jeb, as all the smart money, including Jay H. Ell’s, believes it will be, it will be a retreaded Jeb. He will have had to have moved so far to the right that he would be unrecognizable. However, for the moment, Jeb is boring and the media will much rather not bolster his persona and so they then can tautologously argue that one doesn't hear from him. For the moment Trump or a look alike is still a very very serious contender.

The GOP nomination is the one area that there has to be uncertainty what with the revolution in the Party going on. So maybe the media has got it right after all. Wall to wall coverage of the GOP race punting and supporting one candidate after another to keep it interesting. And what is more it sells soap and to quote The Donald - he is a ratings machine. By the way Jay H Ell believes Trump is getting bored. While it was reported that he had lost his energy in the second debate it looked more like that he had had enough. As he is not remotely interested in policy positions or preparing for debates he has to run on insults, outrageous comments and the like. It is hard to imagine, hard on him and hard on us to have to hear this all again and again for the next 15 months and if Mr. Trump is correct for 4 years after that. 

One thing is for certain the casino mogul has no plan B. Maybe someone else will emerge from the pack?  Is it possible that the media kingmakers will give Chris Christie another chance for prime time? Surely BridgeGate is water under the bridge by now. Jay H. Ell’s GOP choice John Kasich makes too much sense to put his name up in lights. He and Hillary will put us all to sleep with practicality and lower the ratings. Carly, who knows? but when the going gets tough she has to wilt. Rubio, Cruz and Paul - no buzz to keep the crowds off their seats. Walker looks as if he has already shot his bolt, Huckabee’s stick resonates but has been heard before so maybe its just gotta be Jeb. Get him talking about his brother and his father and his mother there is a lot of interest there. Also he can discuss his Hispanic wife whom The Donald approves of.  There is an argument that the US should return to hereditary rule and the Bush dynasty is already in place. So maybe the smart money is right…… The Media can plan a coronation spectacle and hire the Queen’s carriage to drive him up Pennsylvania Avenue. Those spectacles also bring in high ratings and Donald would look good in a Gold Carriage…..