FRANCIS, POLITICS, RELIGION AND SPEAKER BOEHNER

Pope Francis’s, (Catholicism is the largest religion in America with 25% of the population being adherents), short, hectic, sensational visit to the United States, which was punctuated by the shocking unexpected resignation of Republican House Speaker Boehner, came at a time of political turmoil at home and abroad. In the USA there is a tearing apart of the traditional two party system trashing its tradition of consensus politics resulting in a polarization of the body politic not seen in generations. Further, there is frustration and disgust at endemic corruption, corporate greed, giant lay offs, massive executive salaries and government bail outs. A large section of the body politic, both to the left and the right, are totally disillusioned with the status quo and are searching other avenues. 

So what could the Pontiff offer?

THE SHAMBOLIC CHURCH

Pope Francis is the head of the Church to which one of five people on the planet is affiliated, (1.2 billion people). The church is suffering from its lowest attendances in history - in certain East European countries the congregations are non existent, a monumental shortage in priests drifts on, a savage scandal of pedophilia still lingers with continuing revelations of the hierarchy covering it up, the Vatican bank  as yet unresolved scandals still sullies the Holy See's name and the social tensions that arise out of its male exclusivity, contraception policy, unbending stand on divorce and the LGBT community are being exacerbated as society marches on. All the latter in a world where female equality is the accepted goal, divorce and children out of wedlock are running at over 50% and society is more accepting of non heterosexual relationships. 

So who was the Pontiff to say anything?

WHY FRANCIS WAS SUCH A SENSATION

To answer the question as to why Francis created such an aura of excitement, hope and exultation one has to recognize that he represents an authenticity, a moral authority, a sincerity that society craves. There is literally nothing in it for him other than the good of mankind and his persona is like a breath of fresh air in a smoke filled caucus room. He connects with everyone and has a credibility and a humility that resonates - his spontaneous halting of his unostentatious Fiat motor car to bless a paraplegic in the crowd brought a tear to the most cynical of eyes. 

There is the naked anger at political and religious figures and their institutions which are regarded as self serving, phony, greedy and corrupt that he taps into and offers an alternative. He recognizes that both in religion and in politics there is a growing culture of intolerance that needs addressing. There are them and us, the good and the evil, the righteous and the sinners, the unGodly or uncaring versus the Godly and caring. So both in religion and in politics there is a belief that there is not any good in the other side. There is no attempt to emphasize with the “other”. They are all bad. As a result you can kill in the name of God - what Ex Chief Rabbi Jonathan Sacks calls altruistic murder. This phenomenon is called dualism and both Sacks and Francis recognize this as the scourge of our time. We have to see and accommodate the other person’s point of view, there is some good in everyone and in political terms we have to compromise. 

So in Pope Francis there is a figure who walks the walk and has taken on every possible institution on including his own.  Just a word on that, he has antagonized his highly Conservative establishment who resent his pastoral approach and believe that the doctrine is being neglected.  He is in sync with the key issues of our time such as poverty, income distribution and climate change and is hoping those that differ with him on the social issues will bear with him while to the Vatican Establishment’s chagrin he keeps relegating the social doctrines to the back burner.

CONGRESS SPEECH 

The Argentinian born nuncio’s visit has been a non stop tour de force drawing record crowds, accolades, admiration and support. His visit is yet another blessing for the media who have given him the full treatment. Nowhere would his words and message be more parsed than they would be in his address to Congress. The Holy See does not run his ideas and themes through focus groups and the US Congress got the whole nine yards. There are prominent members who are Catholics on both sides of the isle. The House Speaker John Boehner and the Leader of the Democratic opposition are both Catholics as are more than a quarter of the Senators. 

 He spoke of climate change, wealth disparity, immigrants - he was the son of an Italian immigrant to Argentine -, the poor, the elderly and significantly the role of politics in society. He interwove the need for social and political equality with four icons of American history, Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther King and two lesser known radical Catholic activists Dorothy Day and Thomas Mertom. 

He reminded that religious denominations have greatly contributed to building and strengthening society. He argued, “That it was important that today as in the past, the voice of faith continue to be heard … which tries to bring out the best in each person in society.” He recognized the growing menace of religious violence where you can kill in God’s name.

However it is the legate’s political comments that Jay H. Ell would like to focus on and its relevance and impact to current day America.

 THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SYTEM

Just a word of background - America has not a Westminster model democracy and it is largely dependent on consensus. There are 3 independent arms of government and in this context, Jay H. Ell wishes to just refer to one of these - Congress. The latter consists of the House of Representatives and the Senate. To cut to the chase simple majorities are just not good enough to legislate as several checks and balances exist. The system is more complicated in that on multiple issues there is no uniformity within a party and voting, if allowed, can then take place across party lines. In these instances a majority for a legislative initiative may be obtained where one Party alone might not have been able to garner the necessary support. For such a vote to eventuate the Speaker of the House and Leader of the Senate have dictatorial powers as to what issues can come to the floor. The latter are appointed by the majority party which in 2015 is the Republican Party. 

In large part America’s transformative legislation has relied on bipartisan support. From Lincoln’s vote to abolish slavery, to modern day examples of Lyndon Johnson civil rights legislation, Reagan’s economic changes and Clinton’s economic and entitlement changes there has been co operation between the President and the House Speaker and or the opposition party itself. The compromise which when brought to the floor passed with a majority vote made up of members of both parties. 

AND THE SPEAKER…

So the Speaker of the House is a very powerful figure and constitutionally is next in line for the Presidency should the President and Vice President be removed in one way or another. John Boehner has occupied this position for five years. In the early years of his term, in the true tradition, he had extensive discussions with Obama on compromise legislation to meet the priorities of the GOP - decreasing government spending - and the Democrats - a fairer tax code. All reports affirm that the two parties reached an accommodation and it was all systems go but for the intervention of the Tea Party with their winner takes all policy and for the next five years the American legislative approach all but ground to a halt. 

The Tea Party faction would not allow anything to hit the floor and when they couldn’t get their own way they forced the government to shut down by not passing the Federal Budget. And Boehner stood by more often than not. In fact even in the wake of the address of His Excellency to Congress, Boehner had not been unable to persuade his Tea Party caucus not to shut down the government. They refused to vote for a Federal Budget unless Planned Parenthood which provides care for 3,000,000 women a year was defunded. All this was happening to the sound of the unravelling of the GOP and a Tea Party takeover. (Blog: The  GOP Unravels as Trump Triumphs).

So with this as a background Pope Francis entered the hallowed Congress Chamber to an applauding but apprehensive audience.

FRANCIS ON POLITICIANS’ ROLE.

The Pontiff solemnly maintained that the responsibility of the members of Congress was to satisfy the needs of society especially its vulnerable members. He continued that legislative activity is always based on care for the people. He harkened back to Moses who “Symbolizes the need of peoples to keep alive their sense of unity by means of legislation”. He saw politics as a holy mission arguing that, “Politics is an expression of our compelling need to live as one, in order to build the greatest community”. This involved sacrifice by a community to share its goods, its interests, its social life.

Pope Francis stressed that simple reductionism which sees only good and evil in effect makes us inhumane. He believed in the Golden Rule - Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.

BOEHNER’S RESPONSE

John Boehner, who was highly emotional throughout the Pontiff’s address, was almost in a fugue like state after the talk. Boehner confessed to reporters, “He grabbed me by the arm and asked me to pray for him. Who am I to pray for the Pope?”

The next morning Boehner announced his resignation from Congress and The Speakership to a flabbergasted world and a shattered GOP Establishment still reeling after the abdication of Governor Walker from the Republican Residential Race. The reasons a relaxed Speaker gave made no sense. - he was going to resign sooner or later and a prolonged leadership turmoil would do irreparable to the institution. How he believed he was preventing it only he, God and perhaps Francis knew. What made far more sense was his interpretation of his job definition. 

“My first job as Speaker is to protect the institution”, he argued. He believed in the Pontiff's "Golden Rule". How his resignation could be seen outside of the context of the role and tradition of the institution and the Nuncio’s testament is not fathomable. Jay H. Ell interpreted that he had seen the light and had a holy duty to fulfill his political obligation to meet society’s needs. There was very little doubt that he would now allow an open vote on to pass the Federal Budget so the Government would not shut down. In addition as the institution functioned there could be no way that Planned Parenthood would be defunded. Whatever anyone would read into his action “society’s goods” would be continued to be shared. In case anyone had any doubt as to where he was coming from he repeatedly stated that, “My first job is to protect the institution”.

In a subsequent interview on CBS, remaining in a biblical vein Boehner stated that, “There are false prophets out there.. in the town, in the House and Senate, who whip people into a frenzy believing they can accomplish things they know — they know! — are never going to happen.” He continued, spelling out his frustration, “Our founders didn’t want some parliamentary system where if you won the majority you got to do whatever you wanted,” he added. “They wanted this long, slow process. And so change comes slowly. And obviously too slowly for some.”

AFTERMATH

The Conservative Tea Party faction declared victory at the House Leader's departure.  But the abdication created a dilemma for the GOP Presidential hopefuls - they were going to be left with answering questions they would have preferred to ignore. Carly Fiorini, who to date has made the death of Planned Parenthood a center piece of her campaign, suddenly was not so sure if she would close the Government because of its funding. It would have been a lot easier to criticize punchbag Boehner for not doing enough. 

Contemporaneously with the announcement a conservative Value Voters’ Summit was in full swing. The Speaker’s impending departure was greeted with rapturous applause. Marc Rubio who has crept up in the polls greeted the news as if there had been one giant step for mankind. The next day on public radio he could not be pinned down as to whether he, Marc Rubio, would have shut the Government down. He hummed and he hawed but in the end he accepted that it could not happen but at least Boehner should have put up a fight. The Donald, in tune with his new role cheered at Boehner’s decision and nobody asked him why.

While Boehner’s side kick Congressman McCarthy will probably temporarily take over there is going to be a brutal battle between an even more right wing Boehner look alike,  (incidentally John Boehner is no bleeding liberal himself and was originally regarded as a Conservative upstart), and some gent/lady from the Tea Party.  This will be one of the more bloody brutal last stands and the Establishment have about as much hope to turn the tide as the Jewish Sicarii at Masada had of expelling the Romans from Palestine. 

It was left mainly to the Democrats to say what a fine fellow old John really was. President Obama was exceedingly gracious in his tribute because he knew more than anyone else that the outgoing speaker had tried to "protect the institution". 

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

It appears as if the dye is cast. Trump, Carson and Fiorini are polling a combined 50% in the polls. None of these have had any legislative experience. Behind them are Ted Cruz, the standard bearer in Congress of the Tea Party’s take no prisoners brigade, and Marc Rubio. They in sum represent nearly 70% of the  GOP and thet all shouted hurray. The Establishment is still praying, not so silently, for Jeb to make his move and for this nightmare to come to an end. 

Jay H. Ell is coming round to the belief that maybe these guys should get their own way. As matters stand at the moment it is inconceivable that any of them could triumph in a national election. After that maybe just maybe, if there are any adults left in the GOP war room, they will get their act together.

Just by the way the Pope in one of his parting statements reflected on how ephemeral power was…….

Or as Jon Stewart might have said at this time of year, "Good Yomtov to the Pontiff"

THE GOP UNRAVELS FAST AS TRUMP TRIUMPHS

All the money in the world could not put Humpty Dumpty or the Republican Party together again. With the disintegration of Scott Walker, who was one of the last GOP Establishment white hopes, the end is nigh and they must face the final curtain. Just in case the enormity of the former GOP frontrunner’s melt down is being underestimated Jay H. Ell will lay it on a line and examine where things stand after that tsunami.

HE WAS A BIG MAN YESTERDAY BUT BOY YOU OUGHT TO SEE HIM NOW

Scott Walker twice elected Governor of Wisconsin and withstanding one recall vote in a state that voted twice for Obama, a destroyer of Trade Union rights and a darling of the establishment, in fact their second choice after Jeb Bush, is politically dead. He leaves with twenty million dollars in his Political Action Committee and more to the point he was anointed by the Koch brothers who undertook to spend a billion dollars on the 2016 presidential campaign. However having plummeted in the polls from being its leader to less than 1 percent support he has declared his campaign dead. 

The GOP apologists, who were backing Walker to the hilt up until yesterday, as a standard bearer of what the GOP stood for, now maintain that his fall from grace was because he was a flawed candidate. The real reason that he is out is because of the likes of Trump, Carson, Cruz, Huckabee and Fiorina. He could not match their Tea Party credentials even though he had initial Tea Party support versus Jeb back in the good old days when Jeb headed the polls in New Hampshire and his good self in Iowa. (Blog: Governor Walker - The Tea Party’s and Media’s Last White Hope). Walker is no more flawed and limited then when he started on this endeavor he just has had to deal with those who are far more articulate and committed to the Tea Party agenda. He is the metaphor for the last rites of the GOP.

So Scott Walker has been unceremoniously been thrown out of the GOP Presidential Reality Show.

JUST WAITING FOR A DONALD

The writing has been on the wall since the emergence of the Tea Party following the election of Bush 43. The Tea Party was established as a revolt to the GOP Establishment who rather than take them on pandered to them. Their eventual emergence to prime time was just a question of finding a credible, (sic), leader. The burlesque and caraciture Sarah Palins, Michelle Bachmanns and the Herman Cains never quite cut it. The Santorums and the Huckabees just weren't the right fit. So along came the Donald who is a mixture of media savyness, entertainment skills, holder of the “I am the American Dream” award, money - “I am rich very very rich” - and most importantly an ability to unashamedly embrace the raw unedited emotions of the Republican Base from the David Duke’s Klu Klux Klan, to the birthers, the social and fiscal conservatives, the “Don’t mess with America crowd”, we hate the Bush's and their spendthrift policies and the like. He has resonated and connected with their frustration, anger, prejudices, xenophobia and their desire to “Make America Great Again” - whatever that means. Laughed off in the beginning as he unbowed took them all on exhibiting the basest of sexist attitudes to boot. He has come through and now they are eating humble pie.

ESTABLISHMENT ASKED FOR THIS

The establishment should not be shocked - they created this monster by allowing it to grow, pretending it didn’t exist in the phony belief that they could have it both ways - the Tea Party votes coupled with an establishment candidate. According to the script the crazies that represented the Tea Party types would inevitably implode with their lunacy and the party would step in with a Romney look alike. Even this thinking is awry as whatever candidate that emerged could not counter the demographic composition of the electorate that has been ignored and abused in the run up to the nomination. As Jeb Bush put it in order to win the Presidency he would have to lose the nomination. And as things are panning out he is about to prove himself right. If he ignored his own advice perhaps he should have listened to his mother who said, “Read my lips, no more Bushes”.

SO WHERE ARE WE NOW? ASK THE MEDIA

We are one step nearer to the passing of the old GOP, may its dear soul rest in peace. However, Jay H. Ell has little doubt that it will not lie down and die. They will be like the liver of the little old lady who took two liver pills every day of her life and when she died they had to beat her liver to death. The GOP death will be a retrospective diagnosis in the meantime the relative merits of the candidates will be discussed in a vacuum and the media will carry on with their horse race even though a frontrunner has broken his leg. 

The immediate beneficiary of Walker’s exit is The Donald. He is up to 32% in the poll with Carson around about 12%. and Carly Fiorina 14%. His retirement should have benefited Jeb but everyone loves a winner. Trump is about to become a target deluxe as what started off as a joke becomes the central message. The last thing the media want is a no contest GOP race. The establishment candidates are faring so badly because, to quote Morning Joe, the widely followed media man of the sane Republicans, “They have no balls”. The reason the establishment supporters are not bothering to come out is they have no tough strong principled candidates. Jay H. Ell believes Jeb should be ranting “If you support Trump’s bigotry you will have Hillary” and “If you blow off the Hispanics we cannot win”. 

Come on the GOP is better than this. Do we really want a racist frontrunner? We all know that we can’t deport 12 million Mexicans and backing this lot will get us nowhere… Instead the Republican contenders cower and compromise in the wake of The Donald. 

WHERE THERE IS LIFE THERE IS HOPE

There will still be those that stand and hope for a miracle. It has to be possible. Let us take a chance with Bridgegate Christie who every so often shows flashes of sanity. He cleans up well and looks good in a suit. But Christie loses it far too often to be a real President and Bridgegate cannot really go away. Jay H. Ell's favorite the GOP Governor John Kasish, of another swing state that Obama won, Ohio, hasn't a prayer. And now there is Carly for those who don’t mind going down the Romney path again. At least Romney was successful. Her career was high - lighted by firing tens of thousands employees before being unceremoniously fired herself. Besides the fact that she is all over the show she is ready to expand the military in every direction that she is questioned about. Her credibility is in tatters having been shown to outright lie on her version of the anti Planned Parenthood video and reinventing her perceptions of Putin following her meeting with him a number of years ago. Spare us even though the Donald now says since the Prince kissed her she has turned from a frog into a Princess. To show how bad Jay H. Ell feels about phony Carly he prefers the Donald! The only other candidate with balls, other than The Donald, Jay H. Ell has to admit is Carly Fiorina and hence her appeal. Rubio? He just doesn’t pass Morning Joe Scarborough’s balls test. 

So we have to get back to Jeb who doesn’t look vaguely interested. He has to fight and stand toe to toe with The Donald and call him a windbag megalomaniac even at the risk of being told he is also ugly.

COME ON REPUBLICANS

Now there are a substantial group of the GOP media establishment that are making the new reality the mother of invention. They refer to The Donald by his first name. They pontificate with a smugness, like where is the problem? He is not so bad…. He or anyone else can easily beat Hillary. She is useless. Talk about lala land. The demographics are forgotten. Jeb if you are serious tell the immigration story as it is. Do you really want to defund Planned Parenthood? Just quote Pope Francis and as a Catholic his message has to resonate. 

Come on. Let us have a serious debate this is the US Presidential election not the convention of the flat earthers. Nor is it a meeting of the armed crazies on horses shooting their guns in the air and waving the Confederate flag, where they support the democratic right of the Clansmen to ride along even though they don’t fully support them…..

The world has to marvel at these pyrotechnics and wonder if their minds are playing tricks on them. As the Europeans grapple seriously with the emotionally charged Syrian refugee problem where everybody tells as it is we shuffle deck chairs on the Titanic. As the Pope challenges Congress to take on the issues the inanities continue. While the Middle East is in the middle of a paradigm shift the GOP front runners’ solution is to take them all out! The Donald will probably build a wall between Iran and the rest and make The Ayatollah pay for it. 

THE HAPPY DEMOCRATS

The Dems cannot believe their luck. In fact they are at a loss as to what to do when everything is going so swell. While the Republicans are acting as if their Primary is the Presidential election one of them eventually will have to run against someone who will automatically have all the key demographics on his or her side. According to the Pew Research group only 27% of the electorate are seriously taking notice of the present events, the rest are just enjoying the entertainment. So even if the majority of those are Republicans it probably means that The Donald has the backing of a third of about 18% which is 6% of the American voters and Carly half of that. So the Dems just need to plod along because all the negativity is going the GOP way and that is what the eventual winner will bring along as established baggage in the real contest. 

For their part all the Dem contenders are not fighting with one other or falling off the table to grab center stage. Bernie tours America just behind Billie Joel so he dosn’t have to put up his own stage, video screens and microphones, the two no name Governors mutter almost under their breath about the direction the country is going, Joe Biden agonizes whether to run again and Hillary potters about producing position papers. No one but no one is calling anyone ugly or not having energy or attacking them as beltway contenders, they are all just going about their business offering an alternate policy.

Also they have to be basking in Fox News’s frustration with the candidates. The Donald still believes he is powerful enough to ignore Fox. Bill O’Reilly, Fox’s number one, says he is nothing but pure theater. Megyn Kelly is still being shunned even though the powerful Fox CEO Roger Ailes is backing her to the hilt. The channel also questioned and requestioned Carly about what she claimed she saw on the Planned Parenthood video and to their frustration she stood strong, just likeThe Donald, and said it is what it is because she say it is! What are Fox going to do if one of these beauts get the nomination? Mean time they are spending their energy attacking “pitiful” Hillary which for the moment is not selling much soap. So the Dems have everything to be happy about.

IT IS ABOUT TO HIT THE FAN

For occupational therapy the Dems are the only ones focussing on what the GOP are trying to do in Congress. For those that read and watch the main media and don’t receive the Democratic Party e mails, Jay H. Ell wishes to broadcast to the world that the Tea Party faction, over the heads of the GOP leaders McConnell and Boehner, are trying to defund Planned Parenthood and or close down the Government. When the news gets out this is just not going to go down well and The Donald and the like are going to be asked what they think about it. The Donald and the like then have to choose between what the GOP Head Office want, McConnell and Boehner or what the Tea Party have done. This is what the establishment GOP need like a hole in the head. 

THE MEDIA 

Don’t expect any perspective or direction from the media. Other than Fox marking time with all Hillary’s weaknesses they are giving the Dems a bye and this coverage cannot compete with the reality GOP Primary. So no one is asking Bernie about his non existent foreign policy or Hillary or Joe where they disagree with Barak or with each other for that matter. Or does Joe think he will be Obama’s third term? They are all just being allowed to tootle along. Every now and then, so as to let you know that they haven’t forgotten the odds on favourite to won the Presidency they make the vague statement, “Can she get over her e mails.” Apparently she has obviously gotten over Benghazi. The don’t really know what to say about Joe so they discuss the tragedy of the death of his son and whether or not that will influence him running… You see the Dems are not slaughtering each other so their sober reflections don’t sell soap. The entrance of Biden into the race would not help the Republicans as in the unlikely event he can beat Hillary in the Primary all the polls show that he can beat all the Republican front runners. ( The demographics are the same). So the media should stop pretending that Biden in the race gives the GOP a better chance. 

Meanwhile Fox can’t wait for Trump to kiss and make up so the counterproductive feud with him can stop. It is just gulping all the oxygen. 

When the Republicans are down to one candidate, and who knows how long that may take, the media will have to focus on the real race and will have one objective in mind - keeping at is close as possible because the show must go on. This will do as they did in the last two elections forgeting about the reality of the demographics and focusing on the personalities in their reality show. (Blog: Trump, The Media, Ratings and Reality).

TRUMP, THE MEDIA, RATINGS AND REALITY

The great American Presidential reality show continues with the media dictating the script. Jay H. Ell maintains that the reality show that they are creating is far from reality. The media creates a situation and then wails at the outcome of their manipulations. Major case in point is The Donald - they cover every flicker of his eyelid and every tussle of his mane and then ask themselves why is he front and central to the debate with all that media attention? They focus ad nauseam on Hillary’s e mails, like anyone really gives a hoot what server they came from, and then rhetorically cry , “Why is no - one reporting on her detailed policy positions?” However the myth that it is all meaningless is off base as their contrived handling creates a reality. 

IT IS THE MEDIA NOT THE MESSAGE

Just to recap Jay H. Ell’s well worn thesis. The media today has one objective that is to increase its ratings as the latter are used to sell advertising. Broadly speaking the media create the news and then report and comment on the news they have created. The Presidential race has been morphed into a reality show with big stakes. The objective is to create a close horse race. The winner becomes the leader of the world’s largest nation. What could be a bigger prize? There is more than a voyeuristic interest in the outcome as the result impacts on viewers’ lives - health care, taxes or whether one’s relatives and friends can stay in the country or not, for example. All this has the potential for amassing big audiences and therefore high ratings and  costly advertisements. The media in some instances favor one side over the other making them very influential players, however all that is secondary to their mission of making money. So carrying on with this argument the last scenario they need is that the winner of the two year Presidential race is a foregone conclusion. The devotees would loose interest and the fourth estate might have to produce their own material instead of being provided with actors and a script, gratis, courtesy of the Presidential contenders and their campaign staff. The tighter that the media can make these horse races the greater the engrossment of the viewership.

THE DEBATES - CARLY FOR PRESIDENT?

Besides the day to day coverage of the campaign there are the debates. These are being conducted in the main by Fox News and CNN. These channels dictate who are going to participate who gets asked what question, who asks them and so on. There have been two Republican Party presidential debates and the consensus is that in both of them the current leader for the GOP Presidential nomination, The Donald, has been hammered mercilessly. If this is indeed so, which Jay H.Ell believes it is, this could have the effect of bringing the GOP contenders closer together thereby heightening the interest, i.e. viewership and thereby ratings. (Incidentally, Jay H. Ell has previously blogged on the control that Murdoch’s Fox News has over the Republican Party).

Now viewing the latest debate the overt agenda was to put The Donald on the spot and create contestants that could challenge him. Then having done so report “objectively” that Trump has received a setback and by implication no longer a shoo in. Carly Fiorina, and Christie faired well and now newly represent challenges to Trump.  CNN’s handling of this second GOP debate was outrageously bad. They were unashamedly into the sensationalism and tightening the race. There was no pretense at allowing equal time for all the contenders. For example two very serious contenders were all but ignored - Ben Carson and Scott Walker. 

 Jay H. Ell believes that the media would welcome a female contest for the Presidency between Carly and Hillary. So Ms. Fiorina was fed the lines and she delivered. Then the selfsame press reported on her sensational success. She was the hit of the evening and has been catapulted into contention. There have been some serious efforts to promote Ms Florina into prime time and this was the latest. A few one liners are apparently enough to turn her into a knockout and even better the President of the United States. When it gets nearer the nomination it will be time to clip her wings and all the tawdry details that halted her senatorial campaign against Barbara Boxer in California will be taken out of wraps. She is a more subtle megalomaniac than the Donald. At Hewlett - Packard  she created a right royal mess from which they still haven’t recovered. Her nickname was “scissors” because her contribution was to fire tens of thousands of employees while buying several corporate jets - The Donald at least has a number of successes amongst his four corporate bankruptcies some of which he had personally signed security for. 

THE DEMS NON RACE

Down at the other end of the scale Hillary, every betting man’s obvious choice to be the next POTUS, is being steadfastly ignored as a serious candidate. The Dem primary issues to date are not centered around income inequality, immigration, foreign policy, women’s rights rather they are about e mails and the like. The same lame media game applies here. All their coverage is on her e mails and then they smugly comment that the issue does not want to go away! Don’t you know that she was secretly dealing with the Kremlin and selling America’s secrets while canvassing for the best recipe on gefilte fish so as to impress her in laws? 

Bernie Saunders, a sweet sincere man, has been drawing crowds like any rockstar does. His message is pure and simple and is bringing great happiness and hope to those who are seeking the holy grail in politics. He is rating prime time coverage juxtaposed next to Hillary who is seen to be shuffling her e mails. Even the media cannot muster enough energy to push the other two Democratic Governor contenders whose names Jay H. Ell can never remember. Of course even the media recognize that grand daddy Bernie is chanceless so what about Joe Biden who in his previous runs couldn’t ever reach ten percent in the polls? Smoking Joe, the man you would like to go pub crawling with should not be encouraged. Term limits are part of the electorate’s unconscious and Joe represents Obama’s third term. Even the most ardent Obama hater has been relieved that Joe never had to take over. 

So here is what is really going 

1. THE TEA PARTY IS THE GOP- ITS OFFICIAL

The big news as to what is going on is that the party of Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan and the Bushs' no longer exists. After 8 years of pretending they are all one big happy family the Tea Party faction finally found a credible, (sic), leader - Donald Trump and he unceremoniously hijacked the Party. He unashamedly trumpeted the Tea Party’s social value system, misogynism, immigration policy and xenophobia. Bill O’ Reilly of Fox News has at last found a standard bearer to lead America back to being a white man’s country. Initially the establishment GOP resisted Trump’s ascendency and even recruited Fox News to tame him but he prevailed. More significantly he dragged the whole Presidential field into the Tea Party with him. Unlike in the last election where the establishment’s candidate Romney always lay second in the polls to the Tea party candidate du jour, Donald has remained the pacemaker and between him and Carson, a more kinder, softer and gentler but crazier version of The Donald, they have consistently represented fifty percent of the GOP electorate that were polled. If one adds to that third or fourth placed Cruz it comes to closer to sixty percent. Jeb is less than 10 percent and Carly is even less. 

Trump has poisoned the well on the Hispanics muting the pussy footing apologists like Marc Rubio and Jeb Bush who needed to go along with Trumpism in order to compete. It is hard to imagine that this demographic can ever be won back this election cycle. Trump’s loutish behavior may result in him not being the contender at the end of the day but he has been the agent for change. To measure the extent of the fundamental shift in the GOP’s center of gravity all that is needed is to reflect on the fact that Reince Priebus, the big pooh bah of the Republican Party, came to visit The Donald to ensure his support for whoever became the elected GOP nominee. By so doing Reince ensured that all the other candidates would back Donald or anyone like him should they emerge triumphant at the end of the Primaries. Put another way everyone would be expected to back a Tea Party standard bearer if one emerged.

This success has emboldened the Tea Party members in Congress who are threatening to shut down the government again if they don’t get their way on Planned Parenthood. The establishment leadership of McConnell and Boehner are resisting with all their might as they know what a no no that is among the whole electorate. 

So the takeover is official.

2. THE GOP CANNOT WIN THE PRESIDENCY IN 2016

Another non media reality is they do not reflect that it is almost impossible for the GOP to win a national election. Memories are so short it is pathetic. Remember that the GOP working party after the last election pointed out their demographic problem but the results of that assessment are being ignored. The reason that Obama beat Romney, to the disbelief of the faithful, is that the demographics were lined up against him. Contrary to the belief of the Anne Coulters’ of the world there are not enough geriatric white males to vote a Republican in in a national election. Coulter a big Donald supporter turned heads when she complained at the attention the Republican hopefuls were giving to Israel by screaming, “How many f … king jews do these people think there are in the United States.” Added to Trump’s tacit support of the demand of a questioner to get rid of the Muslims and his non response to the statement that Obama was a Muslim and not an American has the foreboding of the election turning ugly.

 The main swing demographic that matters is the Hispanic vote. Not only has Obama made Presidential moves to lighten their immigration burden the Republicans have opposed these and as mentioned The Donald has taken the issue to a new xenophobic level. He is going to build a wall to rival the great wall of China to keep them out.  He has made the Hispanics and Hispanicness his and therefore the GOP’s defining electoral issue. Even those Hispanics that prefer smaller government or are against abortion cannot but help feeling offended. In this nation of immigrants can you imagine how the jews would vote if Trump had said the undocumented jews must be deported and believe you me there must be some that are undocumented. Or had he taken on the Indians or Irish, for example, those groups would make his attack the defining issue that would motivate their vote. It is interesting to note that an Hispanic leader maintained that there was a certain amount of apathy amongst the Hispanic demographic but Trump had given them an impetus to vote against the GOP.

Let us even argue that the demographic of women could be neutralized by a Fiorina but even that would not be enough to change the tide. It is incidentally hard to imagine Carly Fiorina doing that as all she has got going for her is that she is a woman. She has done nothing to further women’s issues and all the leading feminine movements support Hillary. Also breaking in Congress is the Tea Party determination to defund Planned Parenthood or close down government. Fiorina is against planned parenthood that has overwhelming female support. If she were for it she could kiss her chances of the GOP nomination goodbye.

The influential LGBT group will stick with the Dems and even if the youth of the Obama coalition split between the two parties it is not enough.

So unless Donald after he deports the illegal  Hispanics disenfranchises the Hispanic citizens as well the GOP has a tough row to hough. 

3. HILLARY WILL WIN THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

The media have all but written off Hillary. They are inculcating a de ja vu Obama feeling about Hillary’s Democratic candidacy. While Hillary is not the most exiting or charismatic candidate and tends to get irritated with the media, (they just simply hate her she maintains), she is still the odds on favorite to win the nomination and the Presidency. Hillary is not terribly good at running for President she just doesn’t feel the beat. By now she should have known when the e mail controversy came out she should have chucked the server at them before they even knew one existed. She is so anxious not to make mistakes that everything looks so contrived. She may even lose Iowa and New Hampshire but she hasn’t got an Obama opposing her and she has taken a leaf out of the latter’s playbook and is sowing up the Southern States delegates. In addition all the Super delegates are going her way. So wah.

4. GOP NOMINATION - HAS IT GOT TO BE JEB?

Before starting there are 20 or so contenders very few that need go away as they are fueled up with money that the Supreme Court allowed them to get. Remember if you are a billionaire you don't need a Derby winner in your stable you need a President! 

The media have got to know that Jeb is the nominee till otherwise proved. Although it is difficult to envisage but at the same time it is even more difficult to believe it won’t be Jeb. If it is Jeb, as all the smart money, including Jay H. Ell’s, believes it will be, it will be a retreaded Jeb. He will have had to have moved so far to the right that he would be unrecognizable. However, for the moment, Jeb is boring and the media will much rather not bolster his persona and so they then can tautologously argue that one doesn't hear from him. For the moment Trump or a look alike is still a very very serious contender.

The GOP nomination is the one area that there has to be uncertainty what with the revolution in the Party going on. So maybe the media has got it right after all. Wall to wall coverage of the GOP race punting and supporting one candidate after another to keep it interesting. And what is more it sells soap and to quote The Donald - he is a ratings machine. By the way Jay H Ell believes Trump is getting bored. While it was reported that he had lost his energy in the second debate it looked more like that he had had enough. As he is not remotely interested in policy positions or preparing for debates he has to run on insults, outrageous comments and the like. It is hard to imagine, hard on him and hard on us to have to hear this all again and again for the next 15 months and if Mr. Trump is correct for 4 years after that. 

One thing is for certain the casino mogul has no plan B. Maybe someone else will emerge from the pack?  Is it possible that the media kingmakers will give Chris Christie another chance for prime time? Surely BridgeGate is water under the bridge by now. Jay H. Ell’s GOP choice John Kasich makes too much sense to put his name up in lights. He and Hillary will put us all to sleep with practicality and lower the ratings. Carly, who knows? but when the going gets tough she has to wilt. Rubio, Cruz and Paul - no buzz to keep the crowds off their seats. Walker looks as if he has already shot his bolt, Huckabee’s stick resonates but has been heard before so maybe its just gotta be Jeb. Get him talking about his brother and his father and his mother there is a lot of interest there. Also he can discuss his Hispanic wife whom The Donald approves of.  There is an argument that the US should return to hereditary rule and the Bush dynasty is already in place. So maybe the smart money is right…… The Media can plan a coronation spectacle and hire the Queen’s carriage to drive him up Pennsylvania Avenue. Those spectacles also bring in high ratings and Donald would look good in a Gold Carriage…..

BEHIND THE SYRIAN REFUGEE CRISIS

Behind the 500,000 pitiful Syrian refugees that have poured into Europe in the first 6 months of this year and the total of 4 000,000 souls displaced since the start of this Middle East turmoil this year, lie a host of other issues that crowd the room like a ton of gorillas. First and foremost is the battle against the Sunni extremist ISIS waged by an odd coalition of forces some of whom are at war with one another. Adding another wrinkle to the emergence of ISIS is the fact that they have been successfully recruiting Muslims from Western countries and have openly admitted that they mean to use the refugee crisis to send sleepers into Europe and America. Then, secondly, there is the civil war between the genocidal and totalitarian Syrian Premier against his own people which is the immediate reason for the European refugee invasion. Overlying these two major conflicts is the life or death power struggle for control of the Muslim world, led on the one hand by the Gulf State Sunnis and on the other the Iranian Shia. Also the perception that the Muslim world is controlled by terrorists hangs over the plight of the refugees. 

On top of all this is the predominant belief in that Middle East that the balance of power has shifted to Iran as a result of the recent controversial nuclear deal. This brings into focus another gorilla skulking in the shadows of the room - the fight to destroy Israel lead by newly empowered Iran and its surrogates, designated terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah. Not to forget that Syria’s Assad is a key partner in this imbroglio against Israel and it is from this country the refugees emanate. On the world stage yet another shifting of fortunes as Russia, by arming Assad, brings itself closer to creating a de facto power block between it and the Shia world controlled by Iran. This like everything else in the volatile Middle East has unsettled Israel who to date relied on Putin as an ally and as a result Netanyahu has scurried off to Moscow to plead with the unpredictable Russian Premier. Obama too is weighing up his options in relation to Putin’s blatant opportunism. The ripples of the refugee catastrophe are felt everywhere and are in contention in the upcoming US Presidential election for example. 

THE SYRIAN REFUGEES AND THE MUSLIM WORLD

Before moving onto the existential predicament the refugees have landed Europe into let us see how the world around Syria is coping. Three and a half million of the 4 million rooted from their Syrian homes that are still in the Middle East. The bulk is in Lebanon, (1,100,000), Jordan, (620,000), Turkey, (1,600,000), Iraq, (223,000) and Egypt (143,000). All these countries are stretched to the maximum with this flurry of humanity and are targets for destabilization.  Now it does not take a rocket scientist to realize these countries are all predominantly Shia. So where are the Sunni Gulf States in this desperate crunch? On its face the Gulf States are culturally most suited to settle these fugitives. The Gulf States have the same religion, legal system and the equivalent language but they have steadfastly refused to lift a finger to help. Kuwait, presumably in a crude attempt to deflect attention from the obvious sectional reason for their shameless neglect, have argued that their country is too rich for the Syrians. (It is also interesting to note that the evacuees are not clamoring at the Gulf States’ borders either). There are nearly sixty Muslim countries in the world and no others have volunteered to settle even a thousand. 

Assuming that this behavior, particularly by the Gulf States, is not just callous indifference it sends a message to all concerned of the deep divisions in the modern world between Sunnis and the Shia - a circumstance that will have profound implications in the predicted tussle between Iran and IsraeI. One could tritely refer to Israel and the Gulf States relationship as an unholy alliance!  Needless to say this neglect of the Syrian plight by their Sunni brethren has not past unnoticed and is used as an argument by many in Western countries not to become involved.

THE EUROPEAN DILEMMA

It is fair to say that Europe has been in an agitated ambivalent state ever since the refugees began pouring in. The humanitarian dimension of what was unfolding resonated in a continent that had stood by in the thirties and forties when a genocide was taking place. There have been desperate scenes of frantic scrimmaging everywhere interspersed with 71 dead bodies in a truck, drownings and most poignant of all a dead three year old young boy being dragged out of the water. The European Union is meeting regularly, anxious not to repeat their inhumanity exhibited at their infamous meeting at Evian, France in 1938 when every participant refused to take in any Jewish refugees. In the forefront of the relief effort is Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany who has argued, “If Europe fails on the question of refugees, its close connection with universal human rights will be destroyed”. Merkel initially pledged support for the placement of 800,000 fugitives. Other countries were far more circumspect - UK 20,000, France 24,000 and Spain 15,000. 

The real Gorilla in this room is the fact that Europe has already experienced Muslim immigration and has witnessed a failure by that community to integrate into their societies. Also isolated terror incidents and flagrant antisemitism by Muslim extremists has left more than a sour taste. Interestingly enough Holland and Belgium have not agreed to any settlements. Issues such as communities demanding Sharia law abound throughout Europe and women and chid abuse related to custom are a challenge to local authorities. However, other than Hungary’s right wing Prime Minister claiming that he was not going to allow the Christian fabric of his society to be torn by a massive Muslim presence the Muslim identity of the homeless has remained in the closet. 

Also it is patently obvious that this is not Europeans perpetuating genocide while the world stands by. For example, the Europeans never put the hapless refugees in trucks they were put there by shameless exploitative thugs. All the Europeans are trying to do is wrestle with the nightmare that has landed on their doorstep. When caseloads of weapons are discovered in boxes captioned “Humanitarian Aid”, when opposition forces in the country cry enough is enough, it is understandable that there is concern by Governments. In contradistinction even in Hungary the plight of the damned has been embraced by individual citizens who empathize with the Syrians and have provided them with clothes, shelter, food and warmth.

PULLBACK ON REFUGEES

As the days roll on and the numbers of fleeing souls increase exponentially the brake mechanisms go into effect. Hungary has put up a fence making it extremely difficult to enter their country en route to migrate to the richer nations of Germany and Austria. They are even using tear gas and water hoses to control the mob. Germany pulled back too on their generous financial aid given to emigres and have replaced it with food coupons. Germany too is about to put up a fence on its border. There is little doubt that Europe cannot resettle what could be millions of people and somehow they are going to have to find a compromise between humanitarianism and reality. The initial planning EU meetings have morphed into emergency meetings on how to cope with this flood of humanity not how to integrate it.

The United States at the moment are going through their own contortions on the subject. Immigration per se has been made an issue front and center by the current GOP frontrunner, Donald Trump, for the Presidential nomination. The latter wants to deport 12 million Mexicans that are in America illegally. Ironically the United States is the country in the world that has been able to integrate peoples from all countries and persuasions into their melting pot. However, with Immigration a hot button election issue it is unlikely that Obama is going to make any sizable gesture. Thus far he is admitted just over a thousand Syrian homeless and has an objective of about 10,000 for a year. It is not only Trump who is sounding the alarm the number two contender on the Republican slate at present, Ben Carson says that no one can come in until they have had a comprehensive security check, which as it is not possible now, no one can seek asylum. It would be a brave Presidential contender in this climate to propose a major contribution to alleviate the crisis.

(All this immigration bluster is so much hot air because there is no way that 12 million Mexicans are going to be sent home as they are integrated into the economy. The quicker they are legalized the better as they are generally younger than the overall population and one needs a tax base to support the baby boomers who are going into retirement. Also no one cannot even hazard a guess at the true USA illegal situation as there are millions and millions of undocumented workers from other countries. For example there are a 100,000 illegal Greeks that have found there way to the US since their economy collapsed. Nothing will happen to these individuals till legislation is passed that punishes the employers - a policy not favored by the big donors of the GOP).

There is little doubt that Angela Merkel and some of the other European leaders had the adding of large numbers of young workers to their countries in mind in addition to their altruism. Their populations are aging and this is yet another gorilla in this overcrowded room. 

COMPROMISE ON ALTRUISM AND POLITICAL REALITY

The religious leader who has been in the forefront of the type of compromise needed is former Chief Rabbi Lord Jonathan Sacks. He believes that solidarity and empathy needs to be displayed towards the victimized Syrians. He has just completed his book “In God’s Name” where he explores the causative factors of those who effect violence in God’s name. He believes in the biblical edict, “Love the stranger as you were once strangers in Egypt”. He states that if one cannot have empathy for the plight of the Syrian displaced there is no hope as the world then loses its moral compass. At the same time he recognizes the limitations imposed on the European countries and as he is being interviewed left right and center to put a number on the refugees the UK should accept he has come out with the figure ten thousand. The precedent he relates to derives from the project initiated by Sir Nicholas Winton who brought in 10,000 Jewish children from Nazi Germany into the UK. He believes that, “….Sometimes small humanitarian gestures can pierce the darkness and light a flame of hope”.

Pope Francis’s message of hope and solidarity is for every Catholic parish to open its doors to one Syrian family.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Jay H. Ell has tried to show that even if Europe was able to absorb all the Arab refugees the underlying problems would still need addressing. He would also hope that all those gorillas in the room could be openly discussed. It is not wrong, for example, for a people to discuss their fears such as infiltration by ISIS so they can be realistically answered. Also the Middle East mess needs sorting out. The West has  a moral duty to help resolve the chaos as their imperial meddling has more than contributed to it.

The major military decision that needs clarification is how to take on ISIS without supporting Iran and Abbas because all that does is push the can down the road. In case the US and the other 5 major powers hadn’t noticed Iran has become more belligerent since the nuclear deal. The central decision to be made by the Muslim world is to take on terrorism before the extremists take over the religion. Already they have hijacked the platform and the whole theism is being identified with the murderers.

The West also need to remember who their only real ally is in that region and who operates from their value system. Israel too has made what should be considered a humanitarian gesture as the Israeli Defense Force has treated over 1500 injured Syrians regardless of what side they were on in this latest conflict. Abbas’s contribution has been to invite the 4 million displaced Syrians to settle on the West bank. Not surprisingly the refugees did not make a beeline to his and Hamas’s democracies and headed straight for Europe. They did need to become cannon fodder in yet another fracas.

One should be grateful that at least one is not hearing that if the Israeli Palestinian confrontation would be resolved than all these problems would go away. 

To be continued as anything can happen for this powder keg to explode….