THE GREAT IRAN NUCLEAR DIVIDE

Both the protagonists and antagonists on either side of the divide as to whether to ratify the nuclear agreement with Iran share the same opinion of the Iranian Theocracy. Defense Secretary Carter and his State counterpart Kerry both told the  Senate Foreign Relations Committee that they, nor anyone else for that matter, had reason to expect Iran to change its belligerent behavior towards the United States and Israel as a result of the accord. Nor had the Iranians given the slightest indication that they would stop supporting terrorism in the Middle East as a result of the pact. Where the two parties differ, inescapably, is whether or not to uphold the Vienna agreement that while placing severe limits on the uranium enrichment process allows for the Iranian economy to re emerge with all the political and military consequences that will ensue. 

The detractors of the recent deal, predominantly Israel, the Gulf States, Egypt and large sections of the United States Congress are at odds with ninety - nine percent of the world according to President Obama. While Obama seems to be engaging in hyperbole he is probably quite close in his assessment as to the overwhelming universal support the outcome of the months of tortuous negotiations enjoys. The ayes include the whole Security Council and in fact unanimity rarely seen in this day and age including all the nations of Europe, China and Russia. In addition the African, Latin American, Caribbean and East European groups and even Jordan are ad idem. In fact this is the very same crowd that have been condemning Iran in the Security Council for decades, mainly for leading the International Atomic Energy Agency a merry dance, and had as a result participated in the devastating sanctions against them. 

All this begs the question as to why that self same whole world, who not so long ago regarded Iran as a nuclear cheat and now acknowledge that they will not change their general behavior as a result of the deal, are so gung ho for it. This in contrast to the way the Israelis, their government and their opposition, the Gulf Sates and Egypt see the Iranian pact. (Blog: Why the Iranian Deal?).

HOW DID THIS ALL COME ABOUT?

Why after decades long defiance on nuclear issues did these talks even come about? On the surface the Ayatollah Khameini was defiant and why would the Security Council want to make concessions when they were grinding Iran to submission. Ostensibly it was the election of Prime Minister Rouhani in 2013 that paved the way for Iran’s new “flexible” approach and coaxed the Security Council members to give the decade long crises a rethink. Now any casual observer of the Iranian scene knows that to be so much tripe. The Iranian Prime Minister does what the Ayatollah tells him to do. So there had to be more to it than that. And then there was Iran being screwed economically and at a standstill, the populace was getting restless and already there had been a brutal bloody crackdown, Iran’s major allies Syria and Iraq were tottering and ISIS was becoming a direct threat to the Iranian integrity. All of the latter good enough arguments for the grand poobah of Iran to change his strategy on his nuclear policy.

Well that accounts for Iran involvement into the negotiations but what schlepped the world into it? The world could not really get too exited about Iran’s nuclear capability because, if push really came to shove, they or the Israelis would bomb them to smithereens. In addition the world just needed to stick around a bit longer and Iran would had to have caved because they were now being caught between the pincer of economic sanctions and ISIS. Also the seasoned politicians in the Security Council could not really buy that the election of Rouhani made one jot of difference in the Ayatollaha's decision making process. It was more like the Ayatollah was desperate.

Jay H. Ell believes that the nations of the world knew all of this but in weighing up its options rated the all conquering ISIS a bigger threat than Iran. (Blog: Why the Iranian Deal?). The irresistible temptation was thus to make Iran an ally in the war against ISIS. The fear too was that ISIS could take hold of weakened Iran and thereby propose an even greater threat to the world. 

THE MIDDLE EAST FACTION, (GULF STATES AND ISRAEL), WORLD VIEW

Now this is precisely the opposite world view of Israel, the Gulf States and Egypt. They believe that it is Iran that is the greatest threat to world peace, far greater than ISIS, who they rate as more of the same. ISIS just represents the growing Sunni radical movement. In addition ISIS’s biggest battle is with the Shia made up of Assad’s Syria, Iraq and Iran - not to mention the Hezbollah terrorist group. So the Middle East faction of Israel and the Gulf States can watch by as the radical ISIS Sunnis and Iran and their Shia allies duke it out. ISIS has no air force, no missiles no potential nuclear capability so they cannot take on the world or even Israel or the Gulf States like Iran can, so why worry about them? 

You don’t notice Israel in the thick of the battle against ISIS ..… 

WHY THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD VIEWS OF THE WORLD AND THE MIDDLE EAST FACTIONS

The rest of the world is worried about ISIS because they are worried about terrorism. They are concerned about the impact that an established Caliphate can have on recruitment via the internet and social media in every country in the world. They are worried about the asymmetric strategy that the internet spurns in every chat room and on facebook, twitter and in blogs and websites. ISIS is on U Tube every other day lobbing someone’s head off from their new country screaming salvation to the pure and death to all the infidels. There is very little doubt that a successful base and country provides a nidus for the recruitment of the disaffected, unhinged and radicalized youth throughout the world. In addition training can take place there and terrorism exported. The Al Quada experience tells it all. When Al Quada, Osama and the Taliban ruled the roost in Afghanistan, Al Quada terrified the world. Al Quada were chased out of Afghanistan together with the Taliban and now they are very low down on the radar. Who can be inspired by a loser? 

So Israel and the Gulf States are worried about the existential threat that Iran portends. They are adjacent to their genocidal neighbor while the rest of the world are worried about the impact ISIS may have in their home countries. 

WHAT ABOUT THE NUCLEAR THREAT?

Ah yes the nuclear threat. This is what this is supposed to be about after all and in fairness to the hardworking Kerry and his team they cobbled together a large improvement to the status quo. So there is very little doubt that Iran are in less of a position to make a nuclear weapon then they were 6 months ago, but so what. The argument being made at the moment that the alternative to this deal was war is utter nonsense. The alternative to this nuclear deal was the status quo with Iran sweating it out further. A nuclear weapon was still a ways to go and if it happened then the same outcome could have ensued that did with the Iraqi and the Syrian nuclear sites - elimination. Iran with the world on top of them and the Security Council screaming and the International Atomic Energy Agency producing report after report with the Rial going through the floor, with empty shops and inflation skyrocketing would like Iraq and Syria not go to war if their key reactor was snuffed out. They would shut up.

In any case to put it bluntly if Iran subsequently decides to build a nuclear weapon that’s exactly what they will do. North Korea take a fat lot of notice of their treaties. Mean time Iran, with a deal, will have got their mojo and their economy back and will behave just as they did before, except of course they are not going to build a nuclear weapon for the moment. They can then effectively back Assad, rearm Hezbollah and Hamas and with the West’s help take out ISIS. They will be then ready to assume their fight to control the Muslim world as they will control Syria, Iraq and their own terrorist organizations. If and when they are ready to take on Israel they will do so.Then onto the world…

SMOKE AND MIRRORS

As Jay H. Ell has argued this is about ISIS more than it is about nuclear threats. (Blog: Why the Iranian Deal). For everyone to scream at Obama as if it is all about him versus the rest of the world when in fact he is just a part of the ninety - nine percent he was talking about, is not facing the real issues. Jay H. Ell believes that regardless of the grandstanding by the GOP in the US this deal will go through. The GOP has also bought into the ISIS narrative. (Blog: Why the Iranian Deal).

Netanyahu did his cause not much good by coming to America at the Republicans behest and turning the Iran issue into a partisan issue. However he is irrelevant for the moment. Nobody is listening to what he is saying. 

SO WHO IS RIGHT?

So the issue, whether it is tied to a nuclear deal or not, is whether to ally and strengthen Iran because of ISIS or to just let the ISIS issue play out in the Middle East. In making a decision one should surely listen very carefully to those most involved in the contretemps, namely the Israeli/Gulf faction.   Does anyone really think the Gulf States and Israel would be doing as little as they are doing about ISIS if they thought they were the main threat? Iran and their terrorist groups are still public enemies number one. 

As for homegrown terrorism that should be fought at home. Even without ISIS the radical Jihadists have wreaked havoc and one imagines that they will continue to do so till internal security is stiffened up. A good start in the USA would be to stop making weapons so easily available to them.

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

This nuclear deal is going through and one will see what a strengthened Iran might do. But the Iranian nuclear deal is just the beginning not the end. They will certainly have to fight ISIS. They will certainly aid Assad’s Syria and the Shia in Iraq. The major battle as to who will control the Muslim world will still continue. How will the Gulf States respond to the scenarios that might ensue? The question too is what will the Israelis do. They owe the “rest” nothing. Also wanna bet that the Saudis are fishing around for nuclear technology?

If the world got lucky Iran just might rejoin the human race.

Watch this space…..