THE NEW WORLD DISORDER

The problem with the future is that it never is what it used to be. Sometimes one is deceived because the status quo continues for so long that one believes that it will carry on forever. For 75 years the world was dominated, first, by USSR and America, and then by America. Now China is looming in the wings and ready to takeover. The world was a relatively uncomplicated place during the cold war between the USSR and America when black was black and white was white.  We were the good guys and they were the bad guys and the rest of the world was lined up behind them or us. No longer does this uncomplicated life pertain and it is all so confusing.  There is tumult everywhere and it is sometimes difficult to know which side we are on as the alignments are so intermingled and new power blocks are emerging all the time. 

CHAOS ALL ROUND

The emancipated Africa and the newly liberated Middle East have found democracy hard going to say the least. The West's involvement has added chaos to the already dysfunctional Middle East.The Middle East Muslim countries which for years were able to paper up their differences with their opposition to Israel is splintered into three major factions. (Blog: The New Middle East - New Realities). Iran is emerging as a potential behemoth and is an unashamed purveyor of terrorism. They are forefront in the news with the negotiations that are being held to curtail their nuclear capability. 


The European Union, (EU), is rickety and besides its economic woes it has growing anti semitism, a right wing resurgence and a massive influx of Muslim immigrants who, by and large, refuse to integrate. The United Kingdom are about to vote whether to stay and Greece are fearful they are going to be kicked out of the EU. All this added to Latin America which is having another bout of rabid inflation while the Israeli - Palestinian conflict festers on after 70 years and looks more insoluble than ever. 

Africa's shambles is evidenced by fierce battles that are intertribal or between Islam and Christianity taking place with hordes massacred while others are risking their lives by fleeing to Europe in rickety boats. East Asia with its burdgening populations and economic growth look as if they might herald the new center of the world displacing the North Atlantic axis that has held sway for centuries.

Russia controled by an erratic former KGB operative Putin is all over the show as they make a ridiculous bid to regain their glory.

So to say the least the world is in flux and all bets are off as to the future. So much by way of introduction:

THE WORLD

If one reflects on the world order since the end of World War 11, and tries to view it all as history might, we have seen the demise first of the mighty British Empire upon which the sun never used to set. This in spite of the denial and protestations of the greatest figure of the twentieth century, Winston Churchill, without whom the world would be a pretty different place now. (It would break his heart to see what was happening now with Scotland dying to make Great Britain no longer Great). Leadership of the planet was then shared between the USSR and the USA. We were comfortable in that scenario for nearly half a century and all of a sudden the smoke and mirrors show of Lenin, Stalin, Khruschev et al folded like the Berlin wall, and then there was only one - America 

AMERICA MAY HAVE HAD IT’S DAY AS CHINA AND ASIA TAKE THE STAGE

America, who in reality was the number one power from almost World War 1 has always internally followed a topsy turvy roller coaster ride with periods of plenty followed by periods of famine. (The lesson of Joseph and his amazing technicolor dreamcoat has not been learned in the New World). Their ability to bounce back after being seemingly down and out is legion. In one of their more recent periods of down, in the eighties, they seemed to have finally handed over the baton to Japan whose powerful yen was all but buying up the Statue of Liberty. But along came the unforeseen information, computer and dot com eras that once again allowed the teflon You Ess A to bounce back.

 However, America is again sadly poised to slip back into an “Off Broadway” location. This time the problems seem more systemic but then again they always seem that way. Looming over everything else is the possibility that the Arab Gulf States, lead by the Saudis, will uncouple the dollar from the price of oil and the financial world will come tumbing on its head. This would add to their malaise of a colossal debt that is owed to two Asian Countries as manufacturing and export is at an all time low. Japan does not quite seem to know what to do with its one and a quarter trillion dollars owed to it but China does and is busy parlaying its bounty on economic colonialism and are in potential control of the planet. 

Obama's Trans Pacific Partnership is designed to give the USA more influence in that region and decrease China's expanding interest but his own Democratic legislators are more concerned, for the moment, in hanging onto the jobs this effort might loose than taking on China. Xi Jinping, the Chinese Premier has not such internal hindrances as he sets about establishing China as the global leader.

Japan for whatever reason seems to stagnate while amoral China is not much interested in sorting out the world’s problems, rather they have concentrated on owning large chunks of a large chunk of Sub Sahara Africa and Latin America, presumably to ensure markets for its insatiable productivity. It’s most recent investment is in Pakistan and will be for forty - five billion dollars!  They will be building a railway through Pakistan from their Southern border to the Atlantic which will cut days off the transport of their exports. Added to the transaction is military cooperation with Pakistan. This tidy sum compares very favorably with the USA’s paltry seven and a half billion investment in Pakistan which was spread all over the show and made very little impact. (Truth be told one never knows where one is with the Pakistan USA relationship). Added to Japan and China, India  is becoming a major economic power and is part of the Asian Big Three who together the Koreas, Vietnam, Taiwan and the like are shifting the world's center of gravity from the North Atlantic axis to the Northern Pacific. 

So China if their internal situation remains stable and if they begin to translate their financial power into political clout will soon be calling the shots in the world. 

RUSSIA, IRAN  AND AMERICA AND ISRAEL

Russia, like in all the other dictatorships that were overthrown, flirted with democracy for a short while and then  fell into its old totalitarian and imperialistic ways. It annexed Crimea which it didn’t even pretend was it's last territorial demand and are now busy annexing East Ukraine. This has resulted in all embracing economic sanctions lead by America thereby heralding in Cold War 11, or so it appeared. However, America was cooperating with good old Putin, who is part of the six nation group negotiating, with what appears to be a very bizarre strategy in handling, the Iranian nuclear deal. Obama blessed the Russian Premier’s sale of a large cache of defensive missiles to Iran. Obama seemed to empathize with the Russian economic plight which he had caused. This action seems related to Obama’s determination to do a deal with Iran on nixing its nuclear weapon program in spite of being told to go to hell by Iran as they sick bombs into a paper US aircraft carrier.

All this sucking up to Iran has thrown Israel, who incidentally, on the quiet are getting on well with Vladimir Putin, into catalepsy. In order to reassure Bibi that everyone still loves him Barak parceled jolly Joe Biden to Israel to placate Bibi who had been telling everyone that “He had told them so”. The USA are consequently busily reasuring a jittery Israel, by showing them bombs that can blow up deep underground facilities while simultaneously conducting negotiations with an Iran who behave as if they are deadset at kyboshing any hope of a settlement.

AMERICA, THE SAUDIS AND GULF STATES, IRAN, ISIS AND ISRAEL

Apparently just in case anyone thought that the POTUS had caved on Iran he backed the Sunni Saudis in their war against the Iranian backed Shiite Houthis in Yemen. He supplied  them with tons of weaponry and intelligence, (previously verboten as the Gulf States used to be Israel’s enemies. Even so the weapon sales added to Israel's jitters). To make the point further he commissioned aircraft carriers off the coast of Yemen where they were ominously met by the Iranian navy. This failed to mollify the Arab States that he wasn't in bed with their major enemy, Iran, and they refused an invitation to come to Washington to be reassured by the POTUS that he hadn't sold out to Iran.

 Israel thus have formed a de facto pact with the Gulf States against the Shiite Iran and radical Sunni ISIS. (Jay H. Ell hopes that Ben Gurion, Begin et al can see this from up there).

This brings Jay H. Ell to ISIS where the Americans are all but formal allies with Iran in the battle against what many believe is the greatest existential threat to civilization. Again America’s behavior doesn’t seem to jive with the realities on the ground. Iran seems to be calling the shots when they are the ones who need the deal to have the crippling sanctions lifted and to pacify their restless natives. Likewise when it comes to ISIS, which is the biggest threat to Iran, Iran act as if they are doing everyone a big favor by fighting them. The evidence also more than hints that Obama is giving Assad a pass as a quid pro for Iran’s support. Needless to say these aspects of Obama’s foreign policy are more than annoying his allies the Gulf States and Israel. 

WHAT IS GOING ON?

Could somebody tell Jay H. Ell what the hell is going on! All  this US foreign policy chaos, (Blog: The New Middle East - Obama's Failure To Create a Coherent Policy ), is making him dizzy.

It appears that Obama rates ISIS as the number major threat to the USA and the world. (His Middle East allies vehemently disagree with him as they rate Iran as the nemesis). However accepting this hypothesis could then explain his actions. He is doing all he can to accommodate Iran including going to the ends of the earth to get an accord on the nuclear issue. However when his allies like Israel and the Gulf States are directly threatened by Iran he comes down on their side. This is pretty clear cut in the Yemen coup where he has openly opposed Iranian interests. While there is little doubt that he has Israel’s back Netanyahu’s behavior as well as his policies have altered the POTUS’s unconditional support. 

If this reasoning is indeed Obama’s he is making a miscalculation. He will never pacify Iran who everyone but him designates as enemy number one. Also he has very practical reasons not to abandon America’s unconditional support of Israel - Congress will not back him even if he has a decent Iranian deal. In addition he has alienated the Gulf States who are really crucial to upholding the mighty dollar. He also will create a rift between Hillary and himself as there is no way that she can afford to be equivocal on this issue. 

The balancing act he is trying to effect is exceedingly difficult and will become increasingly more so as the battle for the control of the Muslim world continues in the Middle East where, when push comes to shove, he has to back his Sunni Gulf Arab allies and Egypt and Jordan. If Hezbollah, Iran’s Northern terrorist surrogate, whom the Israeli military rate a far greater threat than a nuclear Iran, attacks Israel he has to be on sides with the Jewish State. 

None of the aforementioned scenarios are far fetched. The Saudis in particular may well escalate against Iran or its surrogates, another Yemen can materialize or Yemen can escalate. Israel can decide to bomb Iranian nuclear sites, with or without the Gulf States if one or both perceive that they are on their own and that a nuclear program is an inevitability. What is he going to do then? Bomb them?

So Obama better get his line straight. Iran either accepts a deal as outlined or it doesn’t. He must forget about basing his foreign policy to facilitate the Iranian deal or he will get himself into a bigger foreign policy mess than he is already. 

THE FUTURE

This is a tough one even for Nostradamus. In the Middle East there is an incredible state of flux. Iran is hell bent, with or without the bomb, to dominate that region. Israel, with every justification believes that Iran either directly or through its surrogates will not stop till they annihilate them. The Gulf States coalition have already gone further than ever before by joining into combat. Its hard not to see another major conflagration. Much of this new aggressive Sunni approach is thought to be as a result of the new young Saudi Defense Minister who has just been designated second in line for the Saudi Kingship. So this is the beginning not the end of a hands on Saudi involvement no longer relying on the USA. ISIS that is everyone’s enemy at the moment is claiming center stage and once they are either eliminated or contained or even before that the tinder box that is the Middle East just needs a spark to set it alight. It is difficult to see it all settling down peacefully. 

The Syrian impasse is indicative of the whole ME confusion. Assad is fighting his rebels and ISIS. Hezbollah is fighting Israel, ISIS and Assad's rebels. Iran is fighting via their proxy, the Houthis, the Gulf States and the Yemen Sunnis, Assad's rebels, ISIS and Israel via its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas. The Gulf States have taken on Iran's proxy the Houthis, ISIS and Assad. America is on everyone's side in one or other war but is pleasing nobody.

Meanwhile Old Man China, just like the Yangtze River just keeps rolling along. Their economic deals come with strings attached as evidenced in South Africa for example where the post Mandela showpiece of democracy refused a visa to the Dalai Lama. This was because of their fiscal links to China and it lead Nobel Laureate Archbishop Tutu to explode that he never thought he would have to pray for an end to the ANC Government. The relationship of China to the Gulf States has to change as they, not America, are now the largest purchasers of Middle East oil. A lot depends on whether China decides to flex it's muscles politically on the international scene.

The post war African democracies in Africa have had problems galore and that Continent looks as if the radical Muslims and China have a clear run at the spoils. The West are weary of it all, Europe in particular. The new boat people with the ethical, logistical and practical problems they create seem to have overwhelmed the imagination of the EU. The answer is not more immigration, which their populaces just won’t tolerate, but rather getting involved in their old colonial stomping ground and help cleaning up the mess that they helped to create. It is a real stretch to be optimistic about Africa.

Latin America never ever seems to settle down. At least it has the saving grace of not spilling too much of its chaos onto too many others.

Europe and a large chunk of Eastern Europe hopefully will rejuvenate itself but NATO will be continously hassled by Putin who is determined to get back into the big leagues while busily rejoining East Ukraine to Russia. Putin will be a thorn in the West’s side cozying up to all the rogues on the international stage making the West's life difficult, while slowly grabbing as much territory as he can. 

There is one glimmer of hope in that the new Pope who is the all powerful head of over a billion souls is fearlessly championing the cause of the poor and exploited. His influence is not to be underestimated as shown in the Cuba - USA deal but he has a long way to go to get his own house in order. He has shown a willingness to get his hands dirty in the world of politics. His immediate priority is for the church to regain its ascendency in Africa.

Now back to the USA. Really one does need a coherent foreign policy and not pet projects. Also the legislature needs to start behaving like adults. Something must be done to change the political process from a prohibitively costly reality TV show. Fiscal responsibility is needed and this nonsense that the unproven theory of trickle down economics works has to be laid to rest. Fairer trade policies are called for in addition to halt the unrestricted right to outsource production and money to escape taxes and thereby deprive America of rebuilding infrastructure as well as providing education to its youth at an affordable cost. (Can’t the GOP candidates run on Eisenhower and not Reagan). 

Since it is unlikely that Congress will make adjustments we all better sit down and pray for yet another miracle that will wipe out the deficit and restore the USA to being the leader of the world. They sure beat the hell out of the alternatives. One fact is for sure we don't need another two year old Senator neophyte to run foreign policy - been there done that - stick with Hillary she knows everybody and everybody knows and trusts her as they all speak the same language!

But as we said the future ain’t never what it used to be……..