GOVERNOR WALKER - THE TEA PARTY AND MEDIA'S WHITE HOPE.

Jay H. Ell has already outlined the frantic dash at the start of the GOP Presidential nomination race, (Blogs: The 2016 GOP Presidential Horse Race, The 2016 POTUS Race - It's Hillarious and The GOP Leadership Race and My Fair Hillary), and while the field is very bunched in the early running, media and poll indications are that the race will be fought out between Governors, Wisconsin’s Walker and Florida’s Jeb Bush. (This notwithstanding of the entries of the crazy, Ted Cruz, the serious Marc Rubio and the off beat Rand Paul as well as 14 others) . Walker leads the Iowa polls while the Jeb is narrowly in the lead in New Hampshire - New Hampshire and Iowa being the litmus tests of the hopefuls.

 It remains to be seen whether conservative, Tea Party, white hope Scott Walker can survive the scorching scrutiny of a nearly 2 years campaign when the media decide finally to put him under the microscope. It is early days yet and narrowing the field already is presumptuous to say the least. More likely this could be the start of the “Anyone but Bush” campaign just as in the last Republican Primary we had the “Anyone but Romney” encounters as one after the other Tea Party candidates headed the polls and was replaced the moment they were fully exposed to the cold light of day. The media promote and axe one contender at a time to keep the race going forever. In the end Romney was the only one left standing other than Santorum whom had faded earlier anyway.

It is crystal clear that this is one of the most mediocre fields in history for the Republican Derby - a race of such significance that it is run only once every four years. The most positive comment about this collection of lack luster hopefuls was uttered by the Washington Post’s conservative commentator, Jennifer Rubin, who headlined her piece, “Imperfect Candidates But a Very Flawed Opponent”. The winner of the GOP match up is scheduled to be pitted against the Democratic champion, who by universal consensus will be Hillary Clinton, who apparently is “very flawed”, for the most prestigious race on the political calendar - The President’s Cup. 

AS A CRUCIAL ASIDE.....THE MEDIA

(Appropos Ms. Rubin's last statement that Ms. Clinton is "very flawed" it is interesting to note the way the media distorts its coverage as they selectively at any point in time choose to focus on candidates "weaknesses" and "strengths" mangling reality so as to keep up ratings and sell soap. Read below and see what the media have not as yet told us about Republican Front Runner, Scott Walker. All of the following is crucial to decision making and known right now to a simple observor such as Jay H. Ell. Rather than blurb it out they will let out the story out slowly to keep the suspense going, one way or another, for two years regardless of the truth. Their desire is to create an artificial ongoing close horse race rather than to accent all stengths and weaknesses even when they are evident. If they did they would risk not having a never ending reality show. For the moment the as yet unannounced Presidential Candidate, Scott Walker is the GOP "imperfect" frontrunner whose "imperfections" and qualifications are better than those of a "flawed" Hillary Clinton. 

At this stage Hillary, as the runaway favorite against any GOP candidate, will have any hint of a flaw mercilessly exposed in order for there to be a horse race. It is interesting to note the media's focus on Senator Bernie Sanders, the only Democrat who is running against her to date and who has not even got 1% of the Democratic electorate, being puffed up out of proportion. Hillary who is 50% ahead of her closest Democratic rival Elizabeth Warren will not be able to do much right for the next 18 months. Mercifully for her the electorate seem to be taking less and less notice of what they are supposed to be thinking.  (Blog: Hillary, The Media Run Presidential Race and Her E Mails).

So let us prematurely bring on Governor Walker.

THE  WISCONSIN GOVERNOR 

In horse racing parlance The Wisconsin Governor is “the business” for the GOP standoff.  He certainly looks “the part”. His conservative fiscal and social credentials are impeccable. He may not have the breeding of Jeb Bush but he certainly has the breeding to outstay him. He has that innocent boyish, butter couldn’t melt in his mouth, look about him that belies his rigid fiscal and uncompromising social agenda. And as Jeb himself has tautologously said, to win the Presidential race one has to lose the Primary. If the youngest Bush needed any confirmation of that, the hammering he received at the Conservative Political Action Conference, (CPAC), must have served as authentication. He may well be conservative by liberal standards, even wishy washy on his two supposed sops to the independents, national standards on education and a tortious path for citizenship for the “illegals”, but by CPAC he is no conservative. 

Fiscal Philosophy

Governor Scott Walker needs an introduction because up until now his fame has only spread from Wisconsin to Iowa and among the political junkies who are obsessed with this type of thing. He is a second term Governor in the blue State of Wisconsin who has withstood a recall vote. This he brags as one of his positives but you have to have angered a mass of people, 900,000 to be precise, who took the time and effort to sign petitions and collect signatures for your recall. His current approval ratings have plummeted to the mid  thirties so even Wisconsin have found him out. In Jay H. Ell’s opinion Governor Walker has the resume to triumph in the Primary match up. However, he has precious few credentials to enable him to win the President’s Cup.

In five short years Walker has crammed in all the essentials to make him the pick of the bunch of the Tea Party candidates. He has screwed the Trade Unions and their bargaining rights and championed “right to work” legislation.  This in spite of his pre election promises that he would never sign such devastating fiscal legislation. Recently he firmed up his conservative resume by unambigiously defining where he was in the battle between “the givers” and “the takers”. He took with his left hand, $300,000,000 from “the takers” in the form of the state grant to the prestigious State University of Wisconsin ensuring that “the takers” would have to “give” more to obtain an education. Then he gave, with his right hand $200,000 000 to corporate “givers” to erect a basketball arena. Not too many other illustrations are needed to know where the Presidential hopeful’s fiscal heart lies.

Social Agenda Blends with Fiscal Priorities.

He has decimated social welfare programs including food stamps. He has mandated an expensive drug screening program to test those who get any state benefits including food. The latter screening test has been found not to be  cost effective besides humiliating and degrading - but what should “takers” expect? (In Arizona where this program has been introduced two out of a 108,000 tests were positive). So if you want health care or state assistance to obtain a job for example, pee in a bottle first. His 2015 budget calls for a cut of $15 million from the  senior citizen “takers” of Wisconsin’s drug, (medical of course) program. He denies that he actually cut $500 million from the Medicaid budget in 2011 - 2013. His disclaimer comes in the teeth of his pledge recorded in his own budget documents to do just that. Again it is senseless just to continue this litany as these illustrate enough where the peeing Governor’s bladder lies.

Foreign Policy

If this wasn’t a direct quote one could fairly believe that Jay H. Ell had made it up. The wannabe Presidential Candidate whose lifetime has spanned the Presidencies of Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Carter, both Bushes, Clinton and Obama where there have been innumerable wars, treaties, and events that have changed the international landscape, claimed that the most significant foreign policy event of his lifetime was:

“President Ronald Reagan’s move to bust a 1981 strike of traffic controllers firing some 11,000 of them. It sent a message not only across America, it sent a message across the world. America’s allies and foes alike became convinced enough that Reagan was serious enough to take action and that we weren’t to be messed with”. That was his the aspiring Commander in Chief’s inspiring message at the Conservative Republican Club for Growth, (CRCG), meeting.

Other than the obligatory visit to Israel undertaken by all candidates by both parties that is where it begins and ends.

The Good News.

In an interview with Fox News the Wisconsin Governor sought to repair some of the damage his infantile statements had landed him into. He clarified that former Mayor Giuliani was not speaking on his behalf on when he accused President Obama of not loving America. Walker illuminated on his initial answer that he did not know what the POTUS thought on the subject by substituting the narrative, "That he had no reason to question his love for his country."

In even more inane CRCG comment was “explained”. He testified that he did not mean that the Teacher Trade Union Protestors were “like ISIS” but rather his leadership had sorted the Teacher Trade Union out and therefore was the type of leadership needed to take on ISIS!

There is still another statement hanging out there that needs negating or it will haunt him as long he is still around - that he didn’t know whether President Obama was a Christian because he hadn’t asked him. Jay H. Ell is sure the Governor will either “ask him” or add that he has no reason to suspect his Christianity. 

Walker who is spending as much time in Iowa as he is in Wisconsin is learning the drill quickly. Always against the corn ethanol subsidy he has gone 180 degrees on the issue. He appointed a new campaign manager Liz Mair whose position on the ethanol subsidies was the same as his used to be. The Iowa Repblican Chairman said she had to go. So within hours of her appointment out she went. The Wisconsin Governor sure is a quick learner even though he is not so hot at vetting prospective staffers.

BIO

Walker can truthfully argue that he has come by his convictions honestly. There have been no deviations from his path since early childhood. The other right wing candidates are going to have a problem “out righting” him as he is the genuine article. Outside of Governor Perry and Senator Cruz, who believe that the world is even flatter, the Pauls, Rubrios, Huckabees and even Santorum are going to have to rewrite their fundamentalist accreditations to keep pace with this runner.

He has always been profoundly socially conservative as well as having a fundamentalist outlook on life. The New Republican, in an essay entitled, “Scott Walker’s Toxic Racial Policies”, has reported  an extensive analysis of his pedigree and breeding for this arduous race. His father was a Baptist Minister and Scott founded the “Jesus USA Club” at the age of seven. At the Jesuit University Marquette he was remembered as saying repeatedly, “God has told me I am chosen to cut taxes and stop killing babies”. He announced to the world in the College Yearbook in 1990, “I really think there is a reason why God put all these political thoughts in my head”.

In 1990 on the verge of graduating he dropped out of College, (Incidentally he has never provided a plausible explanation for this) and in 1992 entered the Wisconsin State Assembly. During his State legislature period, according to the New Republican, he become the media spokesperson for the Wisconsin Republican Party. He was a regular on two radio talk shows hosted by Charlie Sykes and Mark Belling whose rantings would make Rush Limbaugh blush. To give you a flavor of these two - the former has recently published a book entitled “A Nation of Moochers” and called Michelle Obama a “mooch” while Belling ranted that a black who died in police custody was “a piece of garbage”. In another outburst Belling attacked “the pigs of mothers who are too lazy to put their children in cribs and roll over the top of them while sleeping on a futon on the floor”.

The two broadcasters are joined at the hip and are known as SykesBelling, one dominating the morning airwaves and the other the afternoon. They have morphed into the unelected policymakers of the Wisconsin GOP. Their policy initiatives and endorsement or axing of Republican operatives in Wisconsin are the last word on the subject. A moderate Republican, Dale Schultz referring to the influence of their talk radio maintained that his colleagues wet themselves when it “got going”. Walker has had the undiluted support of these two who affirm that, “Walker keeps in close contact with us.. we make no secret we are very close to Scott”. They attested that Walker communicates with talk radio, “all the time”.

LEGAL PROBLEMS STARTING WITH CONVICTIONS OF SIX ASSOCIATES

Scott Walker is right in the middle of a legal minefield where some of the explosions have already occured. While Governor Christie’s legal and ethical woes have kiboshed any hope he might have had of landing the prize, Scott’s nonentity status has thus far allowed his snafus to slip under the radar. It would be charitable to call his ability to pick administrative staff as “poor”. Twenty - seven thousand of his e mails were released as a result of litigation against his administration. The allegations that allowed this avalanche of compromising material to surface included embezzlement, money laundering that his staffers effected in getting him elevated from Milwaukee County Executive to the Governor’s mansion. 

One of the e mails from his Chief of Staff contained the following: “THE NIGHTMARE - I can handle being a black, disabled, one armed drug addicted Jewish homosexual, but please, oh dear God do not make me a Democrat". Another circulated by his Deputy Chief of Staff compares welfare recipients to dogs - they are mixed in color, unemployed, lazy, can’t speak English and have no friggin clue who their daddies are”. 

This is the least of it as even as the litigation is held up in the courts for the moment it has already resulted in six convictions of his staff and campaign workers.

* Kelly Rindfleish, Deputy Chief of Staff was sentenced to six months imprisonment for working on political campaigns while being a government employee. She has appealed her sentence.

* Tim Russell, the third most powerful member of Governor Walker’s Milwaukee County Staff was sentenced to two years in prison for stealing $20,000 from a non profit that his chief put under his management. 

* Darlene Wink, a staffer, was sentenced to probation for assisting the Walker gubernatorial campaign on Government time.

* Kevin Kavanaugh, a Walker appointee, who ran the Milwaukee County Veteran Service Commission embezzled $51,000 in donations intended for Vets and their families. He was sentenced to two years in prison.

* Bill Gardner a campaign worker laundered tens of thousands of dollars for Walker’s initial run for the Governor’s campaign. He was sentenced to two years probation. 

* Brian Pierick, who was the registrant for the Wisconsin gubernatorial website, was accused of enticing a minor to expose his penis and plea bargained for a community service sentence and a $2000 fine. What might upset the faithful even more is the fact that in the complaint against Pierick he was described as the “domestic partner” of the aforementioned Tim Russell.

The investigation targeting Scott Walker for illegally  coordinating finances with conservative groups for his 2012 recall campaign is currently being reviewed by the Federal Circuit Court. The latter have allowed the investigation to continue while they review an appeal against its continuance.

Another problem, uncovered by Michael Isikoff, has shed light on one his major donors John Menard of Menards and his "anonymous" donations to a PAC supporting Walker. Million dollar anonymity is OK with the Supreme Court's blessing but he has been awarded $1.8 million dollars in special tax credits by a committee that Walker chairs. In the bad old days that would be considered quid pro quo but as a result of the Supreme Court's Citizen United decision you have to be caught handing the money over in a bag in exchange for a written statement in return that you will get that money back with interest before you have problems.

Another wrinkle on the Menard story is that environmental legislation that Menard, personally and his company had been fined under for dumping hazardous waste was repealed by Governor Walker. This will at least cause him major political problems if it too does not qualify for legal jeopardy. 

WALKER HAS MAJOR FINANCIAL BACKING 

One of the Conservative groups that Walker is alleged to have illegally conspired with is linked to the Koch brothers. The latter have been reported  to be very supportive of Walker’s Presidential candidacy. They have also publicly pledged $900 million to the 2016 elections. So the fact that Walker is leading the polls in Iowa the first Republican Primary and is a close second to Jeb Bush in the more middle of the road New Hampshire makes him a force to be reckoned with. Koch money will ensure that he stays the course.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The Washington Post’s senior columnist charitably characterized the Republican Presidential Candidates as “imperfect” and as Scott Walker is a front runner at the moment she can hardly be accused of hyperbole. The “very flawed” Hillary Clinton should not be losing too much sleep over this lot. The reason the Wisconsin Governor is so high up in the ratings is that his “imperfections” are largely unknown while the other hacks’ vulnerabilities have been on parade for years. 

If by some fluke of history Walker survives the Primaries he will be slaughtered in the Championship stakes. Perhaps one of the “horses” carrying a lighter weight will cross the line and be the GOP standard bearer. Realistically, only Jeb Bush could give Hillary a go but he would have his work cut out to get the Independent vote while at the same time persuading the fundamentalist base to come out and vote for him. The latter really have no loyalty to the Republican brand, certainly as personified by a Bush, as the Bush brand was the main spur for the creation of the Tea Party.

Ironically, Mitt Romney would have been the GOP’s best bet as the early polls had indicated. He had the plus that at least, in the end, the Conservatives came out to vote for him. His problem was that he was a certain loser while by some miracle one of the other “Imperfects”, might not be. How anyone of these can conceivably win while the “do nothing” GOP Congress insists on knocking woman issues, welfare programs for the poor and middle class, Hispanics, and LGBTs, while at the same time appearing totally against everything, to quote Jeb Bush, is beyond Jay H. Ell’s comprehension.

However, if and when the media are ready to broadcast all of this to the world, the "imperfect" Walker will be the equivalent of the "flawed" Clinton. The show must go on.

RHODES, MANDELA AND THE UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN

The University of Cape Town, (UCT), has been the subject of national and international media attention as a result of sustained student protest over the presence of a statue at the entrance to the main campus, of the arch British Imperialist and supporter of racism, Cecil John Rhodes. To the uninitiated UCT is the leading University in Africa and amongst the top one hundred institutions of higher learning in the world. It has a proud history of  opposing apartheid, specifically in education, and now it is in the vanguard of “transformation”. The latter is a process whereby the University attempts to make itself relevant to the post apartheid society in terms of its student and faculty composition, curriculum content, culture and the needs of that society.

It also needs to be noted that the University, which under apartheid, struggled with the Nationalist Government to have ten percent of its student body representative of people of color now have approximately 70 percent of its students from that demographic. Also all the constituencies of the University from the Governing body to the Student Representative Council all have African leadership.

MANDELA  AND RHODES 

The very fact that  Africanization is an evolutionary process is as a result of the culture created by the non racial deal hammered out by Mandela who saw the need not to destroy the existing infrastructure of the country while simultaneously demanding, cajoling, persuading and legislating the Africanization of the new South Africa. While he was uncompromising on the fact that the majority would rule he believed in reconciliation.

Rhodes bequeathed the internationally recognized Rhodes Scholarships. The Rhodes Foundation in South Africa joined with the Mandela Foundation to create the Mandela Rhodes Foundation. The stated objective was to build exceptional leadership in post apartheid South Africa. One of the criteria of being a Mandela Rhodes appointee, besides academic and leadership skills, was a commitment to reconciliation - Mandela’s core narrative.

It has to be no coincidence that the number of Mandela Rhodes Scholarships awarded increased dramatically the number of South African youth going to study at Oxford and gain international experience. In I902 there were only 5 South African Rhodes Scholars, who could only be, as stated in his subsequently overturned will, "white Christian males". The Mandela award was initiated in 2005 with the objective to have never less than 30 appointees per year. In 2015 there were 40 Mandela Rhodes Scholars. The 2015 class had only 8 of the 40 scholars that were white. Not only has the number of scholars increased in the post apartheid years the number of those previously discriminated against and were never chosen are now in the overwhelming majority.

So Mandela did not feel uncomfortable about associating with the Rhodes name if it achieved the objectives of Africanization, reconciliation and transformation. As a visitor and speaker on the UCT campus he had to have noted the Rhodes Statue but he obviously did not regard it as a priority.

(For the record Jay H. Ell believes, regardless that the University is built on the land that Rhodes bequeathed to the State, the statue is not nor ever was an appropriate symbol for a University that is committed to social justice and Academic Freedom. Even though it was erected nearly 80 years ago heavens knows what the University Council was thinking then and more importantly what have they been thinking about ever since).

Indicative of the bohaai the incident caused, the Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, who was on a controversial visit to South Africa, quipped to the merriment of his hosts, President Zuma and 20 of his cabinet ministers, that Zimbabwe had Rhode’s corpse and South Africa could keep his statue.

THE 2015 UCT STUDENTS

It is understandable that students can aim for it all. They are at a stage in their lives where the unhindered, uncompromised pursuit of truth, as they perceive it, is fair game. This unadulterated position has often served society well as students have spearheaded change and have acted as the conscience of society. At a riveting student body meeting, called to discuss the removal of  the Rhodes statue the predominantly black assembly gave it a full go and in effect were giving the University management hell for not transforming the University fast enough. Furthermore if the statue went, which it did, this would be a victory for the students and by definition for all the forces of good. 

This group of students have to be seen in their context - they are not a simmering justifiably angry group of students in an apartheid world in a designated “white” university who are supposed to be grateful to those fighting on their behalf, nor are they in the immediate post apartheid class only to grateful that the world has changed. No, they are over a decade post apartheid and they are in a traditionally “white” institution, whether it opposed apartheid or not or whether it is  “transforming” or not, that they perceive the white establishment are still calling the shots. What rankles is their belief that the white infrastructure is still in place. 

THE  STUDENT ASSEMBLY MEETING ON THE RHODES STATUE

The meeting was held in the historic Jameson Assembly Hall. A venue that has hosted University Mass meetings for generations on all the issues of the day both within and without the University. Jay H. Ell’s own memory stretches back to the meetings he was involved in on as the head student at the University, on Academic Freedom, segregation of social events within the University, apartheid and the abrogation of the rule of law. Jameson Hall’s podium has hosted internationally recognized statesmen, politicians, academics from time immemorial including Robert Kennedy in what is considered his greatest speech ever, Mandela, Smuts, Obama, Eric Erickson and recently the Chilean Premier have all given seminal orations there.

The hall for this historic meeting was packed to the rafters and after initially being addressed by the Vice Chancellor and Principal, Max Price and the President of the Student Representative Council, Ramabina Mahapa, was then opened to the student body and Faculty

 The meeting which bubbled over in excitement and anger was well managed by the polished co chairmen - one a representative of the Convocation and the other the Chairman of the Student Parliament. The level of debate was of a high standard and the participants articulated succinctly their views. The  audience behaved tolerantly to all opinions. While Rhodes was vilified and action as to the removal of his statue was called for, the participants used the meeting for an attack on the Vice Chancellor and his administration, the culture of the University which did not jive with their world view of how transformation should be handled and the plight of black students in post apartheid South Africa. Also most students were not in the mood for compromise on anything and some saw this as being asked to do so just to make the “liberals comfortable”. The Principal’s call for non divisiveness was greeted with suspicion and disdain.  

UNIVERSITY PRINCIPAL AND VICE CHANCELLOR MAX PRICE AND PREDECESSORS

Max Price the white principal and Vice Chancellor of UCT has a thankless and daunting task which he has undertaken since 2008.  He has the academic and political credentials for this position. It is not that he is a vestige of the University policy making body trying to hang onto white control as he was preceded by two notable Africans. In 1996, just 2 years after Mandela had been inaugurated as the first post apartheid President, a brilliant anti apartheid activist and academic, Mamphele Rampele was appointed. She was the first black woman to run a University in South Arica. She took a leadership appointment with the World Bank in 2000 and was then was succeeded by the noted African writer and educationalist Njabulo Ndebele who was the head of the University till 2008 when he was appointed to a higher academic position at another institution.

So Dr. Price just had to have been the best man for the job by far. He has many UCT constituencies to answer to besides his volatile student body. Most central to his existence is the governing body of the University, the University Council which is incidentally now headed by  Archbishop Ndungane. Then there is his Convocation, the body of all graduates, chaired too by an African, Professor Barney Pityana. In addition there is the Senate consisting of the full professors and the body representing the rest of the academic faculty. Finally the body of non academic employees would be allowed to weigh in. 

He consulted all of these prior to arranging for the removal of the statue.

CHANCELLORS

Just for the record the University has had the most impressive list of Chancellors from the Prince of Wales, Edward V111, (come back Rhodes all is forgiven); Field Marshall Smuts the South African Premier who was the only Founding Member and author of the charters of both the League of Nations and UNO; A former Chief Justice of South Africa Centlivres whose seminal ruling from the bench forced the Nationalist Apartheid Government to gerrymander the electoral college of the Senate in order to change the Constitution to disenfranchise those of color already on the voters rolls and perpetuate white rule for another 50 years; Harold Oppenheimer mining magnate and philanthropist who almost singlehandedly pay rolled one of the white opposition parties during apartheid and most recently international humanitarian Dame Graca Machel, former first lady to the Premier of Mozambique and wife of Mandela form 1998 till his passing. She is the only woman in history to have been first lady in two countries. 

ALUMNI

So although by most standards transformation has been proceeding apace the students and several members of the teaching staff are unhappy. Dr. Price, however, has to worry about the lifeblood of a University - its alumni. They have to be the sternest critics and potentially the most resistant to change. The alumni, not just the few who pitch up to Convocation meetings, want sameness, tradition and nostalgia - they want to see the University as they remember it. Some of their attitudes will be rooted in prejudice but most want to gather and soak in the surroundings and culture as they experienced them. Some might be resentful of those who want to knock the symbols that were part of their fondest memories, whether it be Cecil John watching them on the playing fields or the antique stiff paintings in the library. They might fear that their classrooms, their residences or their sports teams will go by the wayside as new priorities shape up. 

Alumni are usually the big donors and Price needs them. The needs include new residencies for the dramatic increase in the student body, subsidies for students and money for research. Price is the chief interface between the nostalgic alumni and the University. He has to explain the fact that many of the white alumni are not going to see their children being admitted to UCT and thus are directly being impacted by change, He frequently visits the USA for example where there are literally thousands of UCT alumni. Just a few days ago he spoke to a poorly attended meeting in New York explaining the Rhodes decision to the faithful and being tremendously empathetic to the student position. Of course on his USA agenda would be visits to the US Foundations who have been very supportive of UCT’s efforts which are also directed at meeting the African continent’s needs.

 So all this is on the Vice Chancellor’s agenda as well as keeping the University in the top 100 academically in the world while continuing with the most ambitious affirmative action program imaginable.  

AT THE END OF THE DAY 

Jay H. Ell, while respecting the highly articulate student opinion as to the role and narrative of the University of Cape Town believes their non yielding approach, in part, clashes with the vision and reconciliation approach of Nelson Mandela . This controversy takes place to the backdrop of the overall political climate in South Africa which is tense and uncertain. It would indeed be a tragedy, if what could turn out to be a lesson for mankind both in tolerance and change was sabotaged. For the moment, the students need reminding in the words of Mandela, rightly or wrongly, it is a “Long Walk to Freedom.”

It is  instructive and important to report the students well thought out feelings and this will be done in a future blog.

THE NEW WORLD DISORDER

The problem with the future is that it never is what it used to be. Sometimes one is deceived because the status quo continues for so long that one believes that it will carry on forever. For 75 years the world was dominated, first, by USSR and America, and then by America. Now China is looming in the wings and ready to takeover. The world was a relatively uncomplicated place during the cold war between the USSR and America when black was black and white was white.  We were the good guys and they were the bad guys and the rest of the world was lined up behind them or us. No longer does this uncomplicated life pertain and it is all so confusing.  There is tumult everywhere and it is sometimes difficult to know which side we are on as the alignments are so intermingled and new power blocks are emerging all the time. 

CHAOS ALL ROUND

The emancipated Africa and the newly liberated Middle East have found democracy hard going to say the least. The West's involvement has added chaos to the already dysfunctional Middle East.The Middle East Muslim countries which for years were able to paper up their differences with their opposition to Israel is splintered into three major factions. (Blog: The New Middle East - New Realities). Iran is emerging as a potential behemoth and is an unashamed purveyor of terrorism. They are forefront in the news with the negotiations that are being held to curtail their nuclear capability. 


The European Union, (EU), is rickety and besides its economic woes it has growing anti semitism, a right wing resurgence and a massive influx of Muslim immigrants who, by and large, refuse to integrate. The United Kingdom are about to vote whether to stay and Greece are fearful they are going to be kicked out of the EU. All this added to Latin America which is having another bout of rabid inflation while the Israeli - Palestinian conflict festers on after 70 years and looks more insoluble than ever. 

Africa's shambles is evidenced by fierce battles that are intertribal or between Islam and Christianity taking place with hordes massacred while others are risking their lives by fleeing to Europe in rickety boats. East Asia with its burdgening populations and economic growth look as if they might herald the new center of the world displacing the North Atlantic axis that has held sway for centuries.

Russia controled by an erratic former KGB operative Putin is all over the show as they make a ridiculous bid to regain their glory.

So to say the least the world is in flux and all bets are off as to the future. So much by way of introduction:

THE WORLD

If one reflects on the world order since the end of World War 11, and tries to view it all as history might, we have seen the demise first of the mighty British Empire upon which the sun never used to set. This in spite of the denial and protestations of the greatest figure of the twentieth century, Winston Churchill, without whom the world would be a pretty different place now. (It would break his heart to see what was happening now with Scotland dying to make Great Britain no longer Great). Leadership of the planet was then shared between the USSR and the USA. We were comfortable in that scenario for nearly half a century and all of a sudden the smoke and mirrors show of Lenin, Stalin, Khruschev et al folded like the Berlin wall, and then there was only one - America 

AMERICA MAY HAVE HAD IT’S DAY AS CHINA AND ASIA TAKE THE STAGE

America, who in reality was the number one power from almost World War 1 has always internally followed a topsy turvy roller coaster ride with periods of plenty followed by periods of famine. (The lesson of Joseph and his amazing technicolor dreamcoat has not been learned in the New World). Their ability to bounce back after being seemingly down and out is legion. In one of their more recent periods of down, in the eighties, they seemed to have finally handed over the baton to Japan whose powerful yen was all but buying up the Statue of Liberty. But along came the unforeseen information, computer and dot com eras that once again allowed the teflon You Ess A to bounce back.

 However, America is again sadly poised to slip back into an “Off Broadway” location. This time the problems seem more systemic but then again they always seem that way. Looming over everything else is the possibility that the Arab Gulf States, lead by the Saudis, will uncouple the dollar from the price of oil and the financial world will come tumbing on its head. This would add to their malaise of a colossal debt that is owed to two Asian Countries as manufacturing and export is at an all time low. Japan does not quite seem to know what to do with its one and a quarter trillion dollars owed to it but China does and is busy parlaying its bounty on economic colonialism and are in potential control of the planet. 

Obama's Trans Pacific Partnership is designed to give the USA more influence in that region and decrease China's expanding interest but his own Democratic legislators are more concerned, for the moment, in hanging onto the jobs this effort might loose than taking on China. Xi Jinping, the Chinese Premier has not such internal hindrances as he sets about establishing China as the global leader.

Japan for whatever reason seems to stagnate while amoral China is not much interested in sorting out the world’s problems, rather they have concentrated on owning large chunks of a large chunk of Sub Sahara Africa and Latin America, presumably to ensure markets for its insatiable productivity. It’s most recent investment is in Pakistan and will be for forty - five billion dollars!  They will be building a railway through Pakistan from their Southern border to the Atlantic which will cut days off the transport of their exports. Added to the transaction is military cooperation with Pakistan. This tidy sum compares very favorably with the USA’s paltry seven and a half billion investment in Pakistan which was spread all over the show and made very little impact. (Truth be told one never knows where one is with the Pakistan USA relationship). Added to Japan and China, India  is becoming a major economic power and is part of the Asian Big Three who together the Koreas, Vietnam, Taiwan and the like are shifting the world's center of gravity from the North Atlantic axis to the Northern Pacific. 

So China if their internal situation remains stable and if they begin to translate their financial power into political clout will soon be calling the shots in the world. 

RUSSIA, IRAN  AND AMERICA AND ISRAEL

Russia, like in all the other dictatorships that were overthrown, flirted with democracy for a short while and then  fell into its old totalitarian and imperialistic ways. It annexed Crimea which it didn’t even pretend was it's last territorial demand and are now busy annexing East Ukraine. This has resulted in all embracing economic sanctions lead by America thereby heralding in Cold War 11, or so it appeared. However, America was cooperating with good old Putin, who is part of the six nation group negotiating, with what appears to be a very bizarre strategy in handling, the Iranian nuclear deal. Obama blessed the Russian Premier’s sale of a large cache of defensive missiles to Iran. Obama seemed to empathize with the Russian economic plight which he had caused. This action seems related to Obama’s determination to do a deal with Iran on nixing its nuclear weapon program in spite of being told to go to hell by Iran as they sick bombs into a paper US aircraft carrier.

All this sucking up to Iran has thrown Israel, who incidentally, on the quiet are getting on well with Vladimir Putin, into catalepsy. In order to reassure Bibi that everyone still loves him Barak parceled jolly Joe Biden to Israel to placate Bibi who had been telling everyone that “He had told them so”. The USA are consequently busily reasuring a jittery Israel, by showing them bombs that can blow up deep underground facilities while simultaneously conducting negotiations with an Iran who behave as if they are deadset at kyboshing any hope of a settlement.

AMERICA, THE SAUDIS AND GULF STATES, IRAN, ISIS AND ISRAEL

Apparently just in case anyone thought that the POTUS had caved on Iran he backed the Sunni Saudis in their war against the Iranian backed Shiite Houthis in Yemen. He supplied  them with tons of weaponry and intelligence, (previously verboten as the Gulf States used to be Israel’s enemies. Even so the weapon sales added to Israel's jitters). To make the point further he commissioned aircraft carriers off the coast of Yemen where they were ominously met by the Iranian navy. This failed to mollify the Arab States that he wasn't in bed with their major enemy, Iran, and they refused an invitation to come to Washington to be reassured by the POTUS that he hadn't sold out to Iran.

 Israel thus have formed a de facto pact with the Gulf States against the Shiite Iran and radical Sunni ISIS. (Jay H. Ell hopes that Ben Gurion, Begin et al can see this from up there).

This brings Jay H. Ell to ISIS where the Americans are all but formal allies with Iran in the battle against what many believe is the greatest existential threat to civilization. Again America’s behavior doesn’t seem to jive with the realities on the ground. Iran seems to be calling the shots when they are the ones who need the deal to have the crippling sanctions lifted and to pacify their restless natives. Likewise when it comes to ISIS, which is the biggest threat to Iran, Iran act as if they are doing everyone a big favor by fighting them. The evidence also more than hints that Obama is giving Assad a pass as a quid pro for Iran’s support. Needless to say these aspects of Obama’s foreign policy are more than annoying his allies the Gulf States and Israel. 

WHAT IS GOING ON?

Could somebody tell Jay H. Ell what the hell is going on! All  this US foreign policy chaos, (Blog: The New Middle East - Obama's Failure To Create a Coherent Policy ), is making him dizzy.

It appears that Obama rates ISIS as the number major threat to the USA and the world. (His Middle East allies vehemently disagree with him as they rate Iran as the nemesis). However accepting this hypothesis could then explain his actions. He is doing all he can to accommodate Iran including going to the ends of the earth to get an accord on the nuclear issue. However when his allies like Israel and the Gulf States are directly threatened by Iran he comes down on their side. This is pretty clear cut in the Yemen coup where he has openly opposed Iranian interests. While there is little doubt that he has Israel’s back Netanyahu’s behavior as well as his policies have altered the POTUS’s unconditional support. 

If this reasoning is indeed Obama’s he is making a miscalculation. He will never pacify Iran who everyone but him designates as enemy number one. Also he has very practical reasons not to abandon America’s unconditional support of Israel - Congress will not back him even if he has a decent Iranian deal. In addition he has alienated the Gulf States who are really crucial to upholding the mighty dollar. He also will create a rift between Hillary and himself as there is no way that she can afford to be equivocal on this issue. 

The balancing act he is trying to effect is exceedingly difficult and will become increasingly more so as the battle for the control of the Muslim world continues in the Middle East where, when push comes to shove, he has to back his Sunni Gulf Arab allies and Egypt and Jordan. If Hezbollah, Iran’s Northern terrorist surrogate, whom the Israeli military rate a far greater threat than a nuclear Iran, attacks Israel he has to be on sides with the Jewish State. 

None of the aforementioned scenarios are far fetched. The Saudis in particular may well escalate against Iran or its surrogates, another Yemen can materialize or Yemen can escalate. Israel can decide to bomb Iranian nuclear sites, with or without the Gulf States if one or both perceive that they are on their own and that a nuclear program is an inevitability. What is he going to do then? Bomb them?

So Obama better get his line straight. Iran either accepts a deal as outlined or it doesn’t. He must forget about basing his foreign policy to facilitate the Iranian deal or he will get himself into a bigger foreign policy mess than he is already. 

THE FUTURE

This is a tough one even for Nostradamus. In the Middle East there is an incredible state of flux. Iran is hell bent, with or without the bomb, to dominate that region. Israel, with every justification believes that Iran either directly or through its surrogates will not stop till they annihilate them. The Gulf States coalition have already gone further than ever before by joining into combat. Its hard not to see another major conflagration. Much of this new aggressive Sunni approach is thought to be as a result of the new young Saudi Defense Minister who has just been designated second in line for the Saudi Kingship. So this is the beginning not the end of a hands on Saudi involvement no longer relying on the USA. ISIS that is everyone’s enemy at the moment is claiming center stage and once they are either eliminated or contained or even before that the tinder box that is the Middle East just needs a spark to set it alight. It is difficult to see it all settling down peacefully. 

The Syrian impasse is indicative of the whole ME confusion. Assad is fighting his rebels and ISIS. Hezbollah is fighting Israel, ISIS and Assad's rebels. Iran is fighting via their proxy, the Houthis, the Gulf States and the Yemen Sunnis, Assad's rebels, ISIS and Israel via its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas. The Gulf States have taken on Iran's proxy the Houthis, ISIS and Assad. America is on everyone's side in one or other war but is pleasing nobody.

Meanwhile Old Man China, just like the Yangtze River just keeps rolling along. Their economic deals come with strings attached as evidenced in South Africa for example where the post Mandela showpiece of democracy refused a visa to the Dalai Lama. This was because of their fiscal links to China and it lead Nobel Laureate Archbishop Tutu to explode that he never thought he would have to pray for an end to the ANC Government. The relationship of China to the Gulf States has to change as they, not America, are now the largest purchasers of Middle East oil. A lot depends on whether China decides to flex it's muscles politically on the international scene.

The post war African democracies in Africa have had problems galore and that Continent looks as if the radical Muslims and China have a clear run at the spoils. The West are weary of it all, Europe in particular. The new boat people with the ethical, logistical and practical problems they create seem to have overwhelmed the imagination of the EU. The answer is not more immigration, which their populaces just won’t tolerate, but rather getting involved in their old colonial stomping ground and help cleaning up the mess that they helped to create. It is a real stretch to be optimistic about Africa.

Latin America never ever seems to settle down. At least it has the saving grace of not spilling too much of its chaos onto too many others.

Europe and a large chunk of Eastern Europe hopefully will rejuvenate itself but NATO will be continously hassled by Putin who is determined to get back into the big leagues while busily rejoining East Ukraine to Russia. Putin will be a thorn in the West’s side cozying up to all the rogues on the international stage making the West's life difficult, while slowly grabbing as much territory as he can. 

There is one glimmer of hope in that the new Pope who is the all powerful head of over a billion souls is fearlessly championing the cause of the poor and exploited. His influence is not to be underestimated as shown in the Cuba - USA deal but he has a long way to go to get his own house in order. He has shown a willingness to get his hands dirty in the world of politics. His immediate priority is for the church to regain its ascendency in Africa.

Now back to the USA. Really one does need a coherent foreign policy and not pet projects. Also the legislature needs to start behaving like adults. Something must be done to change the political process from a prohibitively costly reality TV show. Fiscal responsibility is needed and this nonsense that the unproven theory of trickle down economics works has to be laid to rest. Fairer trade policies are called for in addition to halt the unrestricted right to outsource production and money to escape taxes and thereby deprive America of rebuilding infrastructure as well as providing education to its youth at an affordable cost. (Can’t the GOP candidates run on Eisenhower and not Reagan). 

Since it is unlikely that Congress will make adjustments we all better sit down and pray for yet another miracle that will wipe out the deficit and restore the USA to being the leader of the world. They sure beat the hell out of the alternatives. One fact is for sure we don't need another two year old Senator neophyte to run foreign policy - been there done that - stick with Hillary she knows everybody and everybody knows and trusts her as they all speak the same language!

But as we said the future ain’t never what it used to be……..