Phew, the Middle East world is moving so quickly it is difficult to keep up with the events. Jay H. Ell attempted to outline the players and the issues, (Blog: “The New Middle East - The New Realities”), and now he will attempt to outline the possible scenarios that might follow. In a nutshell there is a life and death battle for domination between the three Islamic factions, the Iranian lead Shia, the fundamentalist Jihadist Sunni, ISIS, and the fundamentalist Sunni Gulf States and their allies which is playing out to the background to the tiff between Netanyahu and Obama and crucial nuclear meetings between Iran and the American led 6 major nations.
THE FIRST STRIKES IN THE ARMED FIGHT FOR ISLAMIC WORLD DOMINATION?
Just in case the Middle East scenario wasn’t complicated enough the Iranian backed Houthi tribe ousted the government in Yemen. This was the final straw for the Sunni Gulf State of Saudi Arabia and they immediately led a nine Gulf State coalition carpet bombing of the Houthi. That the Gulf States were in this for the long haul was illustrated by the over a 100 war plane bombing to repel the Iranian backed Houthis with a 150,000 Saudi ground troops assembled, ready to invade. Egypt were quick to send battleships to the Yemeni coast in support of the Gulf States and Jordan sent airplane fighters. The Arab League stated that it would assemble a unified military response to the Iranian backed Houthi insurgency. Even Pakistan weighed in. This could be the dramatic beginning of the apocalyptic power struggle between the Iranian Shia and the Gulf State Sunni and their allies, (which incidentally includes Israel), for the domination of the Islamic world. Iran strongly condemned the intervention lest there be any doubt this was not the real deal.
All this provoked Obama into coming out in favor of the Saudi’s promising them continuing logistical and intelligence support.The Saudis even allied with Obama following a Republican attack that Obama was taken by surprise. In fact the US provided the Saudi’s with the initial intelligence they needed. (Maybe Nancy Pelosi can invite the Saudi King to a joint Congress session in support of the POTUS.) Obama who till then had been co ordinating strikes against ISIS in Tikrit refused to continue unless Iran withdrew their troops. It was unclear whether that ended the US Iranian alliance in their fight on ISIS.
The volcano has begun to stir that might convulse the whole Middle East into a Sunni/Shia war.
This event may have force Obama to finally comes to terms with the reality that he needs a coherent Middle East policy.
OBAMA’S FAILURE TO DATE TO ARTICULATE A COHERENT MIDDLE EAST POLICY
Obama to date has been unable to cobble a coherent policy to address all the conflicting issues. He is trying to achieve and balance objectives that are on their face contradictory. For example, on the one hand, he has been co ordinating with Shia Iran in the fight against the Sunni Jihadists ISIS and on the other, in he is now supporting his natural allies the Sunni Saudi Arabia in their fight against the Shia Iranian backed minority Houthi. This is complicated further by the fact the Iranian bond implies the US allying with Syria’s Shia Assad who is enemy number one in Saudi Arabia. All this is happening to the backdrop of negotiations with Iran on limiting their nuclear capability and Obama’s ongoing spat with Israel’s Netanyahu on Israel’s policy towards a two state solution.
What appears to be screaming out to Jay H. Ell is the need to identify who and what represent the greatest threat to the world order and therefore the United States? Having done that who are the US allies in the world and the region that can help eradicate that threat.
But let us first see what is standing in the way of a reasoned and systematic American response.
OBAMA AND THE IRANIAN PROBLEM
Obama cannot really think intelligibly on Iran as he started out on a different tack at a different time when the Middle East was not in such a shambles. (Blog: Iran: What is Obama Thinking?). He together with five other leading nations were going to eradicate Iran’s nuclear capability in exchange for lifting sanctions on that country. It is fair to say that an economically powerful Iran with a nuclear capability would be unstoppable. Currently they are neither. A bad deal could make them both.
The whole nuclear exercise seemed a worthy one as Iran’s economy was on its knees and the six nations, led of course by the U esS A, had a great opportunity to get a deal that would rid us of the nightmare of a nuclear Iran. But that is not really the way it has gone. The negotiations have gone on forever, Iran continues with its anti American posture with the Supreme Leader still spouting “Death to America” and carrying on exercises bombing mock American warships, the leaked details of the deal, to put it kindly, have put the heebie jeebies into everyone and The International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors are still complaining to the Security Council about Iran’s failure to cooperate. To add insult to injury Iran don’t want a written agreement they want to shake hands on it! So Iran is calling the shots and Obama seems all to keen to have a deal at any cost.
At one stage there was talk of a comprehensive deal that would include Iran fighting ISIS but more of that later. Implicit in that deal is that Obama would lay off Shia Syria, Iran’s major colony.
It is time for a reality to check for the POTUS. The nuclear deal is dead in the water if it doesn’t emerge with a caste iron process to prevent Iranian nuclear weapons. If there is no water tight agreement as to the total elimination of a nuclear capability this accord is going nowhere as Congress has a bipartisan veto proof vote not to cut sanctions on Iran but rather to increase them. Discretion is the better part of valor. If the deal isn’t Congress proof Obama must axe it and declare victory.
OBAMA AND THE NETANYAHU PROBLEM
Obama is wasting almost as much energy on Netanyahu as he is on the ever elusive Iranian accord. It is time for at least one of these gentleman to grow up and as it is unlikely to be Bibi it better be the Commander in Chief. Bibi it emerges has angered other American Presidents that he has come into contact with not to mention France’s Francois Hollande as the open mike revealed. The POTUS cannot ditch Israel just because of Bolshy Bibi and if he can put up with his Sharia Law friends in Saudi Arabia he can live with the opportunistic Bibi. Also Congress have served notice that they will indirectly thwart him on every turn if he opposes Israel at the UNO. The President needs some perspective - to be expending political energy on an irritating Bibi when he has once again affirmed that he is favor of a two state solution Israel is counterproductive.
So accept Netanyahu’s explanations for the moment there will come a time and a place to put the screws on him and that time isn’t now. Israel is the only natural ally to America in the region and notwithstanding their Premier Bibi Netanyahu’s manipulative duplicitous behavior he can be relied upon in any struggle the US may face. (Blog: The Depressing Israeli Election Results - A Personal Reflection).
OBAMA and ISIS
Obama because he is so distracted with his Iranian nuclear deal has declared ISIS the main Middle East problem. It may be the major Middle East problem but it is not the main threat to the USA or the world. (Blog: “ISIS: Why is Obama Leading? Why no Muslim Outrage”). It was the ISIS barbaric beheadings that drove Obama into this posture. While Obama certainly needs to be part of the coalition fighting the Sunni Jihadist ISIS it is really the major problem of the Gulf Sunni nations and Shia Iran? For Iran whose whole dream of heading the Muslim world is being seriously threatened by ISIS to have the chutzpah to reportedly make their participation in the fight against ISIS a provision of the nuclear deal, like they are doing USA a favor, is off the wall. Not since Saddam’s Sunni dominated Iraq attacked Iran, with USA’s backing has Iran faced such a threat.
ISIS, as evil as they are, represent no threat to the American homeland. They have their work cut out hanging onto their new territory, they have no nuclear reactors and no financial infrastructure other than behaving like pirates. They are able to incite terrorism but that is what the Department of Homeland Security supposed to deal with - an internal terrorist threat.
Likewise the Gulf States need to take a major role against ISIS as they too are directly threatened. It is not the responsibility of the USA to have the courage of their convictions.
OBAMA AND THE GULF STATES
Obama in his desire to get a deal with Iran has angered America’s long time Gulf State allies. They have simmered as he has fawned and seemingly acceded to Iranian nuclear demands. This has built up into an even greater anger as there appears to be supporting now of Shia Syria’s Assad number one enemy of the Sunni Gulf States in that Syria is a total appendage to Iran. If this wasn’t enough the Gulf States with the Saudis at their head are furious at America’s apparent failure to stop the coupe of the majority Sunni Government by an Iranian backed minority Shia Houthi sect in Yemen. America has a large presence in Yemen and the Saudi supported government had given them cover to get into Al Qaeda terrorist nests in Yemen.
Obama owes Iran nothing yet he is being tempted to abandon his Islamic power base for a lick and a promise from them. Obama offered the Saudis logistic and security information support. This in turn angered the Iranians who presumably will demand a few more thousand reactors in the nuclear parlaying.
WHERE ARE WE NOW?
What a mess. It is obvious to all that Iran is the major threat in the Middle East. They are building a sizable empire in the Shia world and the irresistible inference after the Yemen adventure is that they will be cherry picking all the weak Sunni Gulf Arab States to further their onward drive.
So Obama needs to have a water tight nuclear deal or he needs to walk away from Iran. Sure he will attack ISIS but in return he cannot protect Assad. He needs to consolidate a world wide consortium with the Gulf States, Israel and his international allies. Israel needs to realize that they cannot get the open support they need unless a deal is finally made on a two State solution or they appear to be serious about it and they stop building settlements for G-d’s sake. Israel needs assurances from both Gaza as well as the West Bank that they will stop hostilities and recognize its right to exist. America needs once again to ensure sanity back in that debate.
Israel is still the most powerful force in the Middle East and any thought of abandoning them is ludicrous. Besides their military manpower, their intelligence network and their democracy make them crucial allies in the battle to stabilize this area. The age old mantra that if Israel gave the Palestinians their state then there would be peace cannot be argued anymore by any sane commentator. To repeat it is in Israel’s interest to pursue the peace objectives as if they do their gulf allies can legitimately form an open alliance with them.
WHAT NEXT?
For the immediate future the allies need to back the Saudis to the hilt on reclaiming Yemen. The ongoing battle against ISIS needs to continue. No deals with Iran for taking up the brunt of the battle as at the end of the day it is more their problem than the USA’s.
Then there are two scenarios - a nuclear deal with Iran or not. And then if there is a deal is it a good accord or a bad one?
A Bad Nuclear Deal
If the nuclear treaty is not seen to be watertight it is not going to happen as Congress will kybosh it by not lifting Iranian sanctions and adding to them. The Gulf States will be angered that the US have sold them out. Bibi, bless him, will see this as the green light to build more settlements. If somehow Obama can get the bad deal through Congress Israel with probably with the Gulf Sunnis may consider some sort of preemptive strike. Also the Gulf States will proceed with their own nuclear ambitions.There is no way those two entities are going to let Iran grow more and more powerful economically with the additional possibility of becoming a nuclear power.
A Good Nuclear Deal.
Everyone will hold their breath and carry on fighting ISIS. Suspicion will still be high and the Gulf States with American support presumably will do all they can to halt Iranian expansionism. The pressure will be on Israel to stop building Settlements and get a Palestinian deal done or at least show how willing they are.
No Deal
The pressure would be then on as Iran weighs its options as to whether to defy the International Atomic Energy Agency. Renewed sanctions will possibly force them back to the table. The fight against ISIS will continue. The pressure will be once again on Israel to get a deal and stop building Settlements.
All bets are off if the Yemen volcano goes into full throttle. Somehow Jay H. Ell believes that Iran will throw the Houthi under the bus if they lose and regard it as a temporary setback.
Everyone hang on to their seats. The two sets of negotiators are meeting once again to hammer out the framework of a nuclear accord. The six have to hang tough with Iran and if they needed a wake up call they have just got one in Yemen. A bad deal that gets through all the hoops will have devastating consequences, in the Middle East, the World and America. Obama will face a grueling time which will have a major impact on Hillary’s chances unless she dumps him there and then…
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