THE NEW MIDDLE EAST - NEW REALITIES

As the cookie crumbles, in the beginning of 2015, the future ain’t what it used to be, especially in the Middle East. There have been a cascade of power moves, revolutions, realignments and even a new "rogue" country in that region. Added are the civil wars, the looming ISIS threat, the jockeying for dominance in the Islamic world, the Iranian nuclear negotiations and Israel’s recent election and the impact the latter might have on the internal politics of USA and Israel have all added to the fluidity of the regional politics.  

The “Spring” revolutions and uprisings for democracy in the Middle East have come to naught. All that the military effort from the allied nations in Iraq achieved was anarchy and  created a power vaccuum that split the country into religious sect divisions. Then green revolutions, which the West cheered on, were unceremoniously squashed or reversed, while the West watched on. 

It is only fair that the Western colonial powers "mix in" as they laid the groundwork for much of the chaos by dividing up the map, more according to their own political and economic needs, than the local demographics and populations, would have dictated. To add to that the West's subsequent interventions have created even more bedlam, anarchy and discord in this cauldron of turmoil. However, the fundamental causes of this  bloody whirlwind are secterian divides and a desire for regional and global power. 

  With this as a background Jay H. Ell tries to make sense of the dysfunction or at least define it.

THE MIDDLE EAST DICTATORSHIP AND CULTURAL MODEL

A major problem is that the Middle East functions in a different paradigm from the West. The natural form of rule is dictatorship or monarchy. So the West's paternalistic attempts to put them on the path to a Western democracy just does not cut it. Basic issues such as the rule of law, freedom of speech, women and children’s rights and free and fair elections by all are not part of the culture of the Middle East . Religious and sect divides are rigid and represent boundaries not to be crossed. There is no North American melting pot or European Union model there. Also to a lesser or greater extent the value placed on life vastly differs from the Western Judeo - Christian ethic where life is paramount. Warriors are more easily recruited, in this milieu, that can be motivated by the goodies of the after life where the rewards, usually sexual, await them. 

Jay H. Ell was reminded by an article written in The Spectator in 2005 by a dear friend's young son, Paul Mervis, who was tragically a victim of the Afghanistan war, that the way each side communicates differs vastly. Things mean what we say they mean - maybe. But between two vastly different cultures more than a language translator is needed, an expert in the idiom, context and manner of communication should be on hand. The Middle Easterners, for example, are given to hyperbole - "They and their ancestors are honored to have you in their humble abode, (palace) to partake of a few morsels, (feast) or to quote Mervis's piece, the response to "How are your children" is "My children are your slaves". 

So the disconnect between the West and the Middle East is cavernous making negotiations, one would imagine, treacherous. 

The lesson from all of this is that in the here and now a more pragmatic approach is needed. There is no way that any of these Middle East Islamic countries are suddenly going to adapt a Westminster model in a hurry. 

THE MIDDLE EAST ISLAMIC FACTIONS and Israel

With all that by way of introduction let us try and simplistically analyze the Middle East political situation and the players as they exist today. The Muslim religion dominates and is divided into two sects - Sunni and Shia. The Sunni are subdivided, politically, into the Jihardi militant fundamentalists and just the fundamentalists. The unresolvable power struggle is between these two groups and the Shia for domination of the Islamic World and according to some, then the whole planet. 

Just in case this isn’t a big enough recipe for disaster the small country of Israel exists amidst these conflicting entities. To all the other Middle Eastern countries, over the 65 years of its existence, Israel, represented the worst of any possible world. They were the infidel interlopers who stole Muslim Palestinian land and ever since their creation different entities in the Middle East, whether they be countries, “terrorist” organizations or the Palestinians themselves have tried, unsuccessfully, to wipe Israel of the face of the earth. For a long while the only factor that held the disparate Middle East factions together was their hatred of Israel. However, there is a dent in that line up as a result of the internal struggle between the Islamic factions, internal revolutions within the countries themselves and the disarray the Western Countries have generated by their ill conceived interventions into that region.

Iran - The Shia Powerhouse

The most powerful military Islamic group, by far, is the Iranian Shia theocracy whose leaders exhibit an iron grip over their country’s population.  Not only have they a well trained militia they control two terrorist organizations, Hezbollah that wields authority in Lebanon and Hamas who dominate the Palestinian Gaza. The Iranian empire further extends to the nations of Iraq and Syria. Iraq is now Shiite having been liberated from the minority Sunni dictatorship of Saddam and Assad's Syria is dominated by the Shiite sect. The reason Syria’s Assad has been able to survive for five years and the massacre of 220,000 civilians, is Iranian support directly or indirectly, through Hezbollah. Recently an Iranian official maintained that the capitol of the Iranian empire is now Baghdad. Iran is more than mixing in in Yemen, where the Iranian backed Shia Houthi have just completed a successful coupe, and North Africa as they extend their influence and empire. The mastermind of their military expansionism is Major General Qassam Soleimani of the Al Quds branch of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

For the past decade or so the West have been engaged with Iran in an attempt to prevent them from becoming a nuclear power. If the latter objective was attained Iran’s domination of the Middle East and Islamic world would be a foregone conclusion. 

Iran faces a credible Sunni threat from the Sunni Jihadists of ISIS but more on that later. 

The Oil Rich Sunni Gulf States and Egypt and Jordan

Then there are oil rich Gulf State Sunni States, some of which are monarchies.They are made up of the nations of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, who are more or less allied with the military dictatorship of Egypt and the monarchy of Jordan. These nations have a vested interest in stopping the Shia Iran on the one hand and the Jihadist fundamentalist Sunnis on the other. The former are challenging for total control of the Muslim world and the latter, in addition, wish to take over their governments as they regard the aforementioned States as apostate. Thus this group is openly opposed and are militarily engaged to a lesser or greater extent against ISIS. To belabor the point the threat is real as the Jihadi ISIS Sunnis advocate chaos and insurrection in these heretical Gulf countries and have their kingdoms in their sites as part of their caliphate. If ISIS establish their Iraq - Syria caliphate this possibility becomes a reality as these Gulf countries have their own suppressed internal opposition who might support ISIS.

The Fundamentalist Sunni Jihadis  - ISIS

This group has been carved out of the hardcore well trained ex Saddam's Iraqui Sunnis, which were originally part of his highly efficient and repressive Iraqui army which Bush disbanded and the radical Syrian Sunnis that are opposed to Syria’s Assad. They also have been a haven for all the wide eyed Muslim radicals who are attracted to the beheading lifestyle. ISIS, who unflinchingly practice the most severe form of Sharia law, indulge in genocidal sprees and use executions as online entertainment, have served notice that there will be no diluting of their tough barbaric fundamentalist line. They have paralyzed with fear all and sundry in the Middle East and in the rest of the world and caused a rethinking and realignment of all nations throughout the Middle East and the world.

ISIS as a current day phenomenon have brought to fruition the objectives of the Fundamentalist Islamist Jihardists and their wish to create a Caliphate that will dominate first the Muslim world and then the world itself thereby bringing back the glory days of the Ottoman Empire. They now control a sizable area of Iraq and Syria and therefore are a direct threat to Iran’s Ayatollah and his ambitions as well as to the stability of the Gulf Sunni States, Egypt and Jordan, not to forget, little old Israel.

Al Qaeda

Al Qaeda, the former poster boy for Islamic terrorism, have taken a back seat in the current mayhem stakes and are just mentioned for completeness. They too are Sunni and for the moment appear to having limited traction in the Middle East region. With the exiting of Osama they have slowly slid out of prominence but do exert some influence in the region as they are helping to destabilize Yemen. Obviously flying planes into buildings is out of fashion and having been responsible for reorganizing airport security across the world, excepting for Israel who always had that type of security in place, the Al Qaeda group seem to be resting on their laurels in the Middle East.

Israel.

The odd man out in this line up is the democratic secular state of Israel that is inhabited mainly by Jews. Israel was granted nation status in 1947 by the UNO and ever since have been under attack by one or other Islamic entity in the region. The real or imagined reason for this animosity is that Israel have deprived the Palestinians of their homeland. However, until relatively recently, every nation in the region promised Israel’s destruction and backed this up with attempts to do so. With the changing power dynamic in the region and also various successful peace talks, Jordan and Egypt are no longer “enemies” and with the Arab Gulf States seeing far greater existential threats to their existence from Shia Iran and Sunni ISIS they are edging closer and closer to Israel.

Much of the oxygen expended on Israel during its existence has been in relation to formulating a deal with the Palestinians to fulfill the original UNO mandate to create two distinct states. Israel face a major threat to its stability from the outside world as a result of what is alleged to be a changed attitude by that nation’s leader to the creation of an independent Palestine. (Jay H. Ell has blogged till he is blue in the face about the merits of who is and who is not to blame for the failure to reach a settlement so he will not go there now, other to accept that the issue has a profound effect on Israel’s future and standing in the region and the world).

The current crisis Israel faces is linked to two additional events - their recent election and the prior behavior of the victor, Prime Minister Netanyahu and secondly the negotiations between the major International powers and Iran on the curtailment of the latter’s potential nuclear capability. The Israeli premier, never very popular in American Adminstration circles, was seen to be openly sabotaging the American President’s attempts to effect a nuclear accord with Iran. Subsequent to that Netanyahu made comments that ran contrary to Israel’s long standing positions on the formation of an independent Palestinian State and the status of its own Arab citizens. This contretemps between Israel and it’s ally America, threatens to have profound internal political effects in both Israel and America as well as the region and will be discussed in a future blog. 

Suffice to say till an agreeable solution is found to this ongoing dilemma of creating an independent Palestinian state, regardless of who is to blame, it will be very difficult for Israel to form a bloc with their de facto Gulf allies in that region.

IRANIAN NUCLEAR TALKS AND THEIR IMPACT ON  ISRAELI AND AMERICAN POLITICS AND THE REGION

Israel has every reason to believe they could be toast should a nuclear Iran emerge. This is not even an inference as Iran, with monotonous regularity, announce that Israel should be wiped of the face of the earth. Iran’s surrogates, terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah are constantly attacking Israel adding action to the threats. Hamas which took over the Palestinian territory of the West Bank, Israel unilaterally ceded it to the Palestinians, have unashamedly assailed Israel ever since. So Israel has a lot going on the outcome of these negotiations. 

How this diplomacy plays out will have a transforming effect on the internal politics of both America and Israel which could influence the position of Israel in the Middle East and the world. Jay H. Ell has blogged that Iran could become President Obama’s Achilles heel and as the partisan politics are playing out in Washington, if Obama is not careful, he could add Israel to his vulnerability. The Republicans have staked much on championing Bibi sensing the national mood is in favor of Israel as well as Obama’s antipathy to Netanyahu might lead him to act irrationally. The goading of Obama by the GOP could well cause him to act rashly and finally give the GOP an opening which they are poised to seize. Already in an article in the NY Times the feeling is articulated to Obama - "Enough already". 

The whole region is in flux and the outcome of the Iranian nuclear negotiations as well as the post Israeli election relationship between the United States and Israel will have a weighty influence on the new Middle East.