HILLARY, THE MEDIA RUN PRESIDENTIAL RACE AND HER E MAILS

Hillary Clinton, love or hate her, is the odds on favorite to win the Democratic nomination and then the US Presidency in 2016. If one looks at the Dem polls she is ahead by 40 points from her nearest rivals. There is press hysteria about Elizabeth Warren as being a threat to Secretary Clinton in the Democratic Primary yet she is over forty points behind the front runner in the polls. In the Presidential race there is no GOP hopeful within 8 points of her and that represents an Electoral College massacre. 

At Ladbrokes the major betting operation in the world, even though Senator Clinton has not even announced her candidature, to win two dollars you have to lay out seven, that she will be the Democratic nominee. Gambling winnings are fully taxable, so even if you are in the 25% tax bracket you only get $1.50 in two years time for the money you lay out now. If Hillary decides not to even enter the race so as to babysit her grandchild you lose your money so Ladbrokes are not taking too many chances as they will invest your seven dollars over the two years and even if you win they won’t lose too much. 

So why all the hype? If the media is anything to go by this election is going to be another nail biter.

WHY THE 2016 POTUS MEDIA RACE IS NOT A YAWN

What Jay H. Ell is trying to convey is that that with nearly two years to go the 2016 Presidential Race  should be a massive yawn. Hillary is a foregone conclusion barring a miracle. Under these circumstances one would expect the media to be focussing on other issues and be giving the Presidential race a wide berth. However we are witnessing the very opposite as a result of two interdependent factors. Firstly, there is the vast sums of money that the Supreme Court has allowed individuals and companies to spend on candidates. For example, the Koch brothers, who apparently favor Governor Walker for President, have already committed a billion dollars for the 2016 elections. Sheldon Adelson the Casino billionaire apparently is pay rolling Lindsay Graham, who objectively is chanceless. Clinton for her part has already indirectly amassed a tidy sum in Political Action Committees. As Jay H Ell has blogged, “The 2016 Presidential Horse Race”, the new past time for billionaires is to “buy” a Presidential candidate rather than a horse. So conservatively the total spent on this race will run into the tens of billions. 

The other, even more important, factor that is ensuring non stop 24/7 coverage on the Presidential elections on the TV Channels is the fact that the studios have free copy and “actors” in their ongoing reality productions. The candidates and their hangers on either provide content, video material or appear in person for free, filling endless hours. All the media has to provide are “experts” who comment, interpret, prognosticate and yada yada on about what is going on and the impact that this, that and the other has on the reality that the network has created. The money that the Supreme Court has unleashed is going into media advertisements, particularly TV. So the media are not only the recipients of free programming content there is never ending advertising revenue from the campaigns - a double bonus!. 

So it makes sense for the media, especially the visual, to hype and distort the Presidential Race and morph it from being a boring foregone conclusion to a nail biting close race giving it the appearance of having to be decided by a photo finish. In order to effect this false reality the truth needs to be warped and circumstances twisted so as to create a consequence that ensures uncertainty and excitement. It is impossible to view the day to day catastrophes without this as a background and not take it all with a pinch of salt. 

So back to Hillary and the media and her e mails.

HILLARY

Hillary has no challengers and is waiting to be crowned Democratic Presidential challenger. It is possible that one or other nonentity will put up token resistance, which the media will give wall to wall coverage of but even they will be unable to turn it into a horse race. People forget the massive scrutiny the Clintons have already endured in the past. There were all manner of investigations - Whitewater and her alleged murder of Vince Vorster and the rest all of which came to naught. It did flush out Bill’s licentious behavior which was used against him and her. In fact in Republican circles it has been floated that they will use all Bill’s stuff against Hillary. That is desperation tactics as in spite of the impeachment Baba left the WhiteHouse the most popular modern day President and is the most popular political figure in the USA today . President number 42 will be an asset to her ticket as most people rightly or wrongly will think they are getting a “twofer”. 

In fact Clinton Inc is the most powerful political force in America today. In addition to their massive political tentacles that stretch across the country and even the world they are loaded. They either have or control billions. For this they are being pilloried by the Republicans who one might have thought would have cheered them on for it is the American way. So Hillary has a machine in place that is countrywide. Barack Obama has anointed her and in 2016 she won’t be an idiot like Gore was and toss aside the financial recovery that the POTUS will have bequeathed to her, so as to be her own man (sic). This taken into account coupled with the that  growing consensus that the next President should be a woman she looks a shoo in.

Going into a Presidential election it is hard to see any Republican triumphing. Firstly, the demographics are against them as well as every candidate being on the wrong side of history. Objectively the only possibility is Jed but he has work cut out to win the nomination and if he does by his own admission he will be too compromised to win. 

All this adds up to making it a tough job for the media to manipulate the proceedings into an ongoing breathtaking suspenseful horse race. 

HILLARY AND THE MEDIA

Before Hillary claims that there is a right wing conspiracy out to get her it is a media conspiracy and they are out to get everyone who interferes with their narrative that this is an ongoing close horse race. With the Republican race it is easy as someone or other will always be the "Anyone But Bush" candidate and as they are knocked off another contender will take his or her place. Or a variation of the latter, or maybe just Bush and Walker race from the word go?

Hillary, to cope with this inevitable avalanche that occurs every time she lifts a finger, goes somewhere or says something, is laying as low as possible. The old adage that all publicity is good publicity has given way to any publicity is bad because whatever it is there will be a million commentators looking for the angle to spin it in another direction. Doing nothing still evokes negativity cause the Clinton Foundation is attacked for having too much money, having expensive dos, (which one doesn’t to garner donations) and being so effective.

Jay. H. Ell’s advice to Hillary is to do her thing as if the media don’t exist. At the end of the day they cannot buck reality. They have been totally wrong in the last two elections calling them too close to call up to the last minute. 

HILLARY, THE  MEDIA  AND HER E MAILS

Recently, after the numerous Congressional investigations into the Benghazi incident yielded zilch other than the threat that she is going to be attacked for it in the election, all has been relatively quiet on the former First Lady front. That is till it was learned that she had used her own server and private e mail address as Secretary of State. It was an all out attack on Hillary before the matter could be explained, investigated or put into any context. At the outset it must be said that on it face it appears  inexplicable to Jay H. Ell that anyone in Public Office should do such a thing and it does hint at a loss of contact with the real world. It is akin to Bush 41 expressing amazement at the fact that they could scan an item at the check out counter and come up with the price. But while the latter requires very little context for explanation maybe before the incredible hysteria was unleashed at Hillary’s practice some research was needed. But apparently that need was dispensed with as we need a soap opera to keep up ratings not responsible journalism.

Firstly, to use private e mail was not illegal during Hillary’s tenure. Colin Powell used his own e mail and Condoleeza Rice hardly used it at all. John Kerry is the first Secretary of State to exclusively use Government e mail. It is forgotten how new e mail is. E mail really only started at the time of Baba Clinton’s Presidency in1993 and was not common practice for some while. Apparently governmental agencies, as one might expect with bureaucracies, were way behind in their implementation of this important communication modality which has revolutionized the world. Colin Powell in fact commented on this when using his personal e mail. So that accounts for all the precedents in the e mail age.

When commentating on what they have turned into a horse race it is important to know how the other horses are reacting to a similar circumstance. If the going is muddy you don’t just say the front runner is floundering if the whole field is making heavy weather of the conditions. You report that the field appears to find the mud a handicap. So what of the Republican front runner Jeb Bush who criticized Hillary on this score? He apparently released a ton of his e mails and is smelling like a rose. That is until you pull back a petal or two. Jeb only released 10 percent of his e mails and he too used his personal e mail, from a server that he too owned, while he was Florida’s Governor. What off all the other runners in public office? Lindsay Graham has already volunteered that he doesn’t use e mail!

On the slightest delving into e mailgate it appears to be a storm in a teacup. What remains now is the political exploitation of the cause celebre. Feeding off the feeding frenzy, a Benghazi Congressional Committee have linked this to the Democratic frontrunner’s alleged cover up of her responsibility of the murder of the Benghazi Embassy personnel and have resuscitated their moribund investigation. The former first lady has offered to provide all her e mails but whatever she does will not be enough. She held a Press Conference on the matter that evoked even more questions. She confessed that she used the secure server that was created by her husband as a "convenience". It will eventually blow over, as it always does, as the Republican legislators huff and puff accompanied by endless coverage from the media who will opine that this brings her closer to the other "contenders". 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Modern media communication especially of the visual type is geared for ongoing tension whether it be a coverage of a storm or a Presidential election. In some of the situations the coverage seems like a lampoon and gone is the serious investigative reportage. The Comedy “fake news” shows no longer have to invent satire, they just play snippets from the "real" news. Jon Stewart is going to leave a great void when he bids farewell. It is not by accident that a whole demographic trusted only him for their news. 

If the news world was a saner place then there would not be an almost four year continuing Presidential Election news cycle. This especially so when there isn’t much of race to talk about -  except the one the media is determined to make one way or another. The media is creating a situation where experience is something of a disadvantage. If you have been active as a First Lady both in the Governor’s House and the WhiteHouse, in the Senate and as a Cabinet Secretary there is always something to focus on without bothering to look at policy. There is always another angle on everything.