THE NEW MIDDLE EAST - OBAMA’S FAILURE TO CREATE A COHERENT POLICY

Phew, the Middle East world is moving so quickly it is difficult to keep up with the events. Jay H. Ell attempted to outline the players and the issues, (Blog: “The New Middle East - The New Realities”), and now he will attempt to outline the possible scenarios that might follow. In a nutshell there is a life and death battle for domination between the three Islamic factions, the Iranian lead Shia, the fundamentalist Jihadist Sunni, ISIS, and the fundamentalist Sunni Gulf States and their allies which is playing out to the background to the tiff between Netanyahu and Obama and crucial nuclear meetings between Iran and the American led 6 major nations. 

THE FIRST STRIKES IN THE ARMED FIGHT FOR ISLAMIC WORLD DOMINATION? 

Just in case the Middle East scenario wasn’t complicated enough the Iranian backed Houthi tribe ousted the government in Yemen. This was the final straw for the Sunni Gulf State of Saudi Arabia and they immediately led a nine Gulf State coalition carpet bombing of the Houthi. That the Gulf States were in this for the long haul was illustrated by the over a 100 war plane bombing to repel the Iranian backed Houthis with a 150,000 Saudi ground troops assembled, ready to invade. Egypt were quick to send battleships to the Yemeni coast in support of the Gulf States and Jordan sent airplane fighters. The Arab League stated that it would assemble a unified military response to the Iranian backed Houthi insurgency.  Even Pakistan weighed in. This could be the dramatic beginning of the apocalyptic power struggle between the Iranian Shia and the Gulf State Sunni and their allies, (which incidentally includes Israel), for the domination of the Islamic world. Iran strongly condemned the intervention lest there be any doubt this was not the real deal.

All this provoked Obama into coming out in favor of the Saudi’s promising them continuing logistical and intelligence support.The Saudis even allied with Obama following a Republican attack that Obama was taken by surprise. In fact the US provided the Saudi’s with the initial intelligence they needed. (Maybe Nancy Pelosi can invite the Saudi King to a joint Congress session in support of the POTUS.) Obama who till then had been co ordinating strikes against ISIS in Tikrit refused to continue unless Iran withdrew their troops. It was unclear whether that ended the US Iranian alliance in their fight on ISIS. 

The volcano has begun to stir that might convulse the whole Middle East into a Sunni/Shia war.

This event may have force Obama to finally comes to terms with the reality that he needs a coherent Middle East policy.

OBAMA’S FAILURE TO DATE TO ARTICULATE A COHERENT MIDDLE EAST POLICY

Obama to date has been unable to cobble a coherent policy to address all the conflicting issues. He is trying to achieve and balance objectives that are on their face contradictory. For example, on the one hand, he has been co ordinating with Shia Iran in the fight against the Sunni Jihadists ISIS and on the other, in he is now supporting his natural allies the Sunni Saudi Arabia in their fight against the Shia Iranian backed minority Houthi. This is complicated further by the fact the Iranian bond implies the US allying with Syria’s Shia Assad who is enemy number one in Saudi Arabia. All this is happening to the backdrop of negotiations with Iran on limiting their nuclear capability and Obama’s ongoing spat with Israel’s Netanyahu on Israel’s policy towards a two state solution.

What appears to be screaming out to Jay H. Ell is the need to identify who and what represent the greatest threat to the world order and therefore the United States? Having done that who are the US allies in the world and the region that can help eradicate that threat.

But let us first see what is standing in the way of a reasoned and systematic American response. 

OBAMA AND THE IRANIAN PROBLEM

Obama cannot really think intelligibly on Iran as he started out on a different tack at a different time when the Middle East was not in such a shambles. (Blog: Iran: What is Obama Thinking?). He together with five other leading nations were going to eradicate Iran’s nuclear capability in exchange for lifting sanctions on that country. It is fair to say that an economically powerful Iran with a nuclear capability would be unstoppable. Currently they are neither. A bad deal could make them both.

The whole nuclear exercise seemed a worthy one as Iran’s economy was on its knees and the six nations, led of course by the U esS A, had a great opportunity to get a deal that would rid us of the nightmare of a nuclear Iran.  But that is not really the way it has gone. The negotiations have gone on forever, Iran continues with its anti American posture with the Supreme Leader still spouting “Death to America” and carrying on exercises bombing mock American warships, the leaked details of the deal, to put it kindly, have put the heebie jeebies into everyone and The International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors are still complaining to the Security Council about Iran’s failure to cooperate. To add insult to injury Iran don’t want a written agreement they want to shake hands on it! So Iran is calling the shots and Obama seems all to keen to have a deal at any cost.

At one stage there was talk of a comprehensive deal that would include Iran fighting ISIS but more of that later. Implicit in that deal is that Obama would lay off Shia Syria, Iran’s major colony.

It is time for a reality to check for the POTUS. The nuclear deal is dead in the water if it doesn’t emerge with a caste iron process to prevent Iranian nuclear weapons. If there is no water tight agreement as to the total elimination of a nuclear capability this accord is going nowhere as Congress has a bipartisan veto proof vote not to cut sanctions on Iran but rather to increase them. Discretion is the better part of valor. If the deal isn’t Congress proof Obama must axe it and declare victory.

OBAMA AND THE NETANYAHU PROBLEM

Obama is wasting almost as much energy on Netanyahu as he is on the ever elusive Iranian accord. It is time for at least one of these gentleman to grow up and as it is unlikely to be Bibi it better be the Commander in Chief. Bibi it emerges has angered other American Presidents that he has come into contact with not to mention France’s Francois Hollande as the open mike revealed. The POTUS cannot ditch Israel just because of Bolshy Bibi and if he can put up with his Sharia Law friends in Saudi Arabia he can live with the opportunistic Bibi. Also Congress have served notice that they will indirectly thwart him on every turn if he opposes Israel at the UNO. The President needs some perspective - to be expending political energy on an irritating Bibi when he has once again affirmed that he is favor of a two state solution Israel is counterproductive.

So accept Netanyahu’s explanations for the moment there will come a time and a place to put the screws on him and that time isn’t now. Israel is the only natural ally to America in the region and notwithstanding their Premier Bibi Netanyahu’s manipulative duplicitous behavior he can be relied upon in any struggle the US may face. (Blog: The Depressing Israeli Election Results - A Personal Reflection).

OBAMA and ISIS

Obama because he is so distracted with his Iranian nuclear deal has declared ISIS the main Middle East problem. It may be the major Middle East problem but it is not the main threat to the USA or the world. (Blog: “ISIS: Why is Obama Leading? Why no Muslim Outrage”). It was the ISIS barbaric beheadings that drove Obama into this posture. While Obama certainly needs to be part of the coalition fighting the Sunni Jihadist ISIS it is really the major problem of the Gulf Sunni nations and Shia Iran? For Iran whose whole dream of heading the Muslim world is being seriously threatened by ISIS to have the chutzpah to reportedly make their participation in the fight against ISIS a provision of the nuclear deal, like they are doing USA a favor, is off the wall. Not since Saddam’s Sunni dominated Iraq attacked Iran, with USA’s backing has Iran faced such a threat. 

ISIS, as evil as they are, represent no threat to the American homeland. They have their work cut out hanging onto their new territory, they have no nuclear reactors and no financial infrastructure other than behaving like pirates. They are able to incite terrorism but that is what the Department of Homeland Security supposed to deal with - an internal terrorist threat. 

Likewise the Gulf States need to take a major role against ISIS as they too are directly threatened. It is not the responsibility of the USA to have the courage of their convictions.

OBAMA AND THE GULF STATES

Obama in his desire to get a deal with Iran has angered America’s long time Gulf State allies. They have simmered as he has fawned and seemingly acceded to Iranian nuclear demands. This has built up into an even greater anger as there appears to be supporting now of Shia Syria’s Assad number one enemy of the Sunni Gulf States in that Syria is a total appendage to Iran. If this wasn’t enough the Gulf States with the Saudis at their head are furious at America’s apparent failure to stop the coupe of the majority Sunni Government by an Iranian backed minority Shia Houthi sect in Yemen. America has a large presence in Yemen and the Saudi supported government had given them cover to get into Al Qaeda terrorist nests in Yemen. 

Obama owes Iran nothing yet he is being tempted to abandon his Islamic power base for a lick and a promise from them. Obama offered the Saudis logistic and security information support. This in turn angered the Iranians who presumably will demand a few more thousand reactors in the nuclear parlaying.

WHERE ARE WE NOW?

What a mess. It is obvious to all that Iran is the major threat in the Middle East. They are building a sizable empire in the Shia world and the irresistible inference after the Yemen adventure is that they will be cherry picking all the weak Sunni Gulf Arab States to further their onward drive.  

So Obama needs to have a water tight nuclear deal or he needs to walk away from Iran. Sure he will attack ISIS but in return he cannot protect Assad. He needs to consolidate a world wide consortium with the Gulf States, Israel and his international allies. Israel needs to realize that they cannot get the open support they need unless a deal is finally made on a two State solution or they appear to be serious about it and they stop building settlements for G-d’s sake. Israel needs assurances from both Gaza as well as the West Bank that they will stop hostilities and recognize its right to exist. America needs once again to ensure sanity back in that debate. 

Israel is still the most powerful force in the Middle East and any thought of abandoning them is ludicrous. Besides their military manpower, their intelligence network and their democracy make them crucial allies in the battle to stabilize this area. The age old mantra that if Israel gave the Palestinians their state then there would be peace cannot be argued anymore by any sane commentator. To repeat it is in Israel’s interest to pursue the peace objectives as if they do their gulf allies can legitimately form an open alliance with them. 

WHAT NEXT?

For the immediate future the allies need to back the Saudis to the hilt on reclaiming Yemen. The ongoing battle against ISIS needs to continue. No deals with Iran for taking up the brunt of the battle as at the end of the day it is more their problem than the USA’s.

 Then there are two scenarios - a nuclear deal with Iran or not. And then if there is a deal is it a good accord or a bad one? 

A Bad Nuclear Deal

 If the nuclear treaty is not seen to be watertight it is not going to happen as Congress will kybosh it by not lifting Iranian sanctions and adding to them. The Gulf States will be angered that the US have sold them out. Bibi, bless him, will see this as the green light to build more settlements. If somehow Obama can get the bad deal through Congress Israel with probably with the Gulf Sunnis may consider some sort of preemptive strike. Also the Gulf States will proceed with their own nuclear ambitions.There is no way those two entities are going to let Iran grow more and more powerful economically with the additional possibility of becoming a nuclear power. 

A Good Nuclear Deal.

Everyone will hold their breath and carry on fighting ISIS. Suspicion will still be high and the Gulf States with American support presumably will do all they can to halt Iranian expansionism. The pressure will be on Israel to stop building Settlements and get a Palestinian deal done or at least show how willing they are.

No Deal

The pressure would be then on as Iran weighs its options as to whether to defy the International Atomic Energy Agency. Renewed  sanctions will possibly force them back to the table. The fight against ISIS will continue. The pressure will be once again on Israel to get a deal and stop building Settlements.

All bets are off if the Yemen volcano goes into full throttle. Somehow Jay H. Ell believes that Iran will throw the Houthi under the bus if they lose and regard it as a temporary setback.

Everyone hang on to their seats. The two sets of negotiators are meeting once again to hammer out the framework of a nuclear accord. The six have to hang tough with Iran and if they needed a wake up call they have just got one in Yemen. A bad deal that gets through all the hoops will have devastating consequences, in the Middle East, the World and America. Obama will face a grueling time which will have a major impact on Hillary’s chances unless she dumps him there and then…

THE NEW MIDDLE EAST - NEW REALITIES

As the cookie crumbles, in the beginning of 2015, the future ain’t what it used to be, especially in the Middle East. There have been a cascade of power moves, revolutions, realignments and even a new "rogue" country in that region. Added are the civil wars, the looming ISIS threat, the jockeying for dominance in the Islamic world, the Iranian nuclear negotiations and Israel’s recent election and the impact the latter might have on the internal politics of USA and Israel have all added to the fluidity of the regional politics.  

The “Spring” revolutions and uprisings for democracy in the Middle East have come to naught. All that the military effort from the allied nations in Iraq achieved was anarchy and  created a power vaccuum that split the country into religious sect divisions. Then green revolutions, which the West cheered on, were unceremoniously squashed or reversed, while the West watched on. 

It is only fair that the Western colonial powers "mix in" as they laid the groundwork for much of the chaos by dividing up the map, more according to their own political and economic needs, than the local demographics and populations, would have dictated. To add to that the West's subsequent interventions have created even more bedlam, anarchy and discord in this cauldron of turmoil. However, the fundamental causes of this  bloody whirlwind are secterian divides and a desire for regional and global power. 

  With this as a background Jay H. Ell tries to make sense of the dysfunction or at least define it.

THE MIDDLE EAST DICTATORSHIP AND CULTURAL MODEL

A major problem is that the Middle East functions in a different paradigm from the West. The natural form of rule is dictatorship or monarchy. So the West's paternalistic attempts to put them on the path to a Western democracy just does not cut it. Basic issues such as the rule of law, freedom of speech, women and children’s rights and free and fair elections by all are not part of the culture of the Middle East . Religious and sect divides are rigid and represent boundaries not to be crossed. There is no North American melting pot or European Union model there. Also to a lesser or greater extent the value placed on life vastly differs from the Western Judeo - Christian ethic where life is paramount. Warriors are more easily recruited, in this milieu, that can be motivated by the goodies of the after life where the rewards, usually sexual, await them. 

Jay H. Ell was reminded by an article written in The Spectator in 2005 by a dear friend's young son, Paul Mervis, who was tragically a victim of the Afghanistan war, that the way each side communicates differs vastly. Things mean what we say they mean - maybe. But between two vastly different cultures more than a language translator is needed, an expert in the idiom, context and manner of communication should be on hand. The Middle Easterners, for example, are given to hyperbole - "They and their ancestors are honored to have you in their humble abode, (palace) to partake of a few morsels, (feast) or to quote Mervis's piece, the response to "How are your children" is "My children are your slaves". 

So the disconnect between the West and the Middle East is cavernous making negotiations, one would imagine, treacherous. 

The lesson from all of this is that in the here and now a more pragmatic approach is needed. There is no way that any of these Middle East Islamic countries are suddenly going to adapt a Westminster model in a hurry. 

THE MIDDLE EAST ISLAMIC FACTIONS and Israel

With all that by way of introduction let us try and simplistically analyze the Middle East political situation and the players as they exist today. The Muslim religion dominates and is divided into two sects - Sunni and Shia. The Sunni are subdivided, politically, into the Jihardi militant fundamentalists and just the fundamentalists. The unresolvable power struggle is between these two groups and the Shia for domination of the Islamic World and according to some, then the whole planet. 

Just in case this isn’t a big enough recipe for disaster the small country of Israel exists amidst these conflicting entities. To all the other Middle Eastern countries, over the 65 years of its existence, Israel, represented the worst of any possible world. They were the infidel interlopers who stole Muslim Palestinian land and ever since their creation different entities in the Middle East, whether they be countries, “terrorist” organizations or the Palestinians themselves have tried, unsuccessfully, to wipe Israel of the face of the earth. For a long while the only factor that held the disparate Middle East factions together was their hatred of Israel. However, there is a dent in that line up as a result of the internal struggle between the Islamic factions, internal revolutions within the countries themselves and the disarray the Western Countries have generated by their ill conceived interventions into that region.

Iran - The Shia Powerhouse

The most powerful military Islamic group, by far, is the Iranian Shia theocracy whose leaders exhibit an iron grip over their country’s population.  Not only have they a well trained militia they control two terrorist organizations, Hezbollah that wields authority in Lebanon and Hamas who dominate the Palestinian Gaza. The Iranian empire further extends to the nations of Iraq and Syria. Iraq is now Shiite having been liberated from the minority Sunni dictatorship of Saddam and Assad's Syria is dominated by the Shiite sect. The reason Syria’s Assad has been able to survive for five years and the massacre of 220,000 civilians, is Iranian support directly or indirectly, through Hezbollah. Recently an Iranian official maintained that the capitol of the Iranian empire is now Baghdad. Iran is more than mixing in in Yemen, where the Iranian backed Shia Houthi have just completed a successful coupe, and North Africa as they extend their influence and empire. The mastermind of their military expansionism is Major General Qassam Soleimani of the Al Quds branch of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

For the past decade or so the West have been engaged with Iran in an attempt to prevent them from becoming a nuclear power. If the latter objective was attained Iran’s domination of the Middle East and Islamic world would be a foregone conclusion. 

Iran faces a credible Sunni threat from the Sunni Jihadists of ISIS but more on that later. 

The Oil Rich Sunni Gulf States and Egypt and Jordan

Then there are oil rich Gulf State Sunni States, some of which are monarchies.They are made up of the nations of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, who are more or less allied with the military dictatorship of Egypt and the monarchy of Jordan. These nations have a vested interest in stopping the Shia Iran on the one hand and the Jihadist fundamentalist Sunnis on the other. The former are challenging for total control of the Muslim world and the latter, in addition, wish to take over their governments as they regard the aforementioned States as apostate. Thus this group is openly opposed and are militarily engaged to a lesser or greater extent against ISIS. To belabor the point the threat is real as the Jihadi ISIS Sunnis advocate chaos and insurrection in these heretical Gulf countries and have their kingdoms in their sites as part of their caliphate. If ISIS establish their Iraq - Syria caliphate this possibility becomes a reality as these Gulf countries have their own suppressed internal opposition who might support ISIS.

The Fundamentalist Sunni Jihadis  - ISIS

This group has been carved out of the hardcore well trained ex Saddam's Iraqui Sunnis, which were originally part of his highly efficient and repressive Iraqui army which Bush disbanded and the radical Syrian Sunnis that are opposed to Syria’s Assad. They also have been a haven for all the wide eyed Muslim radicals who are attracted to the beheading lifestyle. ISIS, who unflinchingly practice the most severe form of Sharia law, indulge in genocidal sprees and use executions as online entertainment, have served notice that there will be no diluting of their tough barbaric fundamentalist line. They have paralyzed with fear all and sundry in the Middle East and in the rest of the world and caused a rethinking and realignment of all nations throughout the Middle East and the world.

ISIS as a current day phenomenon have brought to fruition the objectives of the Fundamentalist Islamist Jihardists and their wish to create a Caliphate that will dominate first the Muslim world and then the world itself thereby bringing back the glory days of the Ottoman Empire. They now control a sizable area of Iraq and Syria and therefore are a direct threat to Iran’s Ayatollah and his ambitions as well as to the stability of the Gulf Sunni States, Egypt and Jordan, not to forget, little old Israel.

Al Qaeda

Al Qaeda, the former poster boy for Islamic terrorism, have taken a back seat in the current mayhem stakes and are just mentioned for completeness. They too are Sunni and for the moment appear to having limited traction in the Middle East region. With the exiting of Osama they have slowly slid out of prominence but do exert some influence in the region as they are helping to destabilize Yemen. Obviously flying planes into buildings is out of fashion and having been responsible for reorganizing airport security across the world, excepting for Israel who always had that type of security in place, the Al Qaeda group seem to be resting on their laurels in the Middle East.

Israel.

The odd man out in this line up is the democratic secular state of Israel that is inhabited mainly by Jews. Israel was granted nation status in 1947 by the UNO and ever since have been under attack by one or other Islamic entity in the region. The real or imagined reason for this animosity is that Israel have deprived the Palestinians of their homeland. However, until relatively recently, every nation in the region promised Israel’s destruction and backed this up with attempts to do so. With the changing power dynamic in the region and also various successful peace talks, Jordan and Egypt are no longer “enemies” and with the Arab Gulf States seeing far greater existential threats to their existence from Shia Iran and Sunni ISIS they are edging closer and closer to Israel.

Much of the oxygen expended on Israel during its existence has been in relation to formulating a deal with the Palestinians to fulfill the original UNO mandate to create two distinct states. Israel face a major threat to its stability from the outside world as a result of what is alleged to be a changed attitude by that nation’s leader to the creation of an independent Palestine. (Jay H. Ell has blogged till he is blue in the face about the merits of who is and who is not to blame for the failure to reach a settlement so he will not go there now, other to accept that the issue has a profound effect on Israel’s future and standing in the region and the world).

The current crisis Israel faces is linked to two additional events - their recent election and the prior behavior of the victor, Prime Minister Netanyahu and secondly the negotiations between the major International powers and Iran on the curtailment of the latter’s potential nuclear capability. The Israeli premier, never very popular in American Adminstration circles, was seen to be openly sabotaging the American President’s attempts to effect a nuclear accord with Iran. Subsequent to that Netanyahu made comments that ran contrary to Israel’s long standing positions on the formation of an independent Palestinian State and the status of its own Arab citizens. This contretemps between Israel and it’s ally America, threatens to have profound internal political effects in both Israel and America as well as the region and will be discussed in a future blog. 

Suffice to say till an agreeable solution is found to this ongoing dilemma of creating an independent Palestinian state, regardless of who is to blame, it will be very difficult for Israel to form a bloc with their de facto Gulf allies in that region.

IRANIAN NUCLEAR TALKS AND THEIR IMPACT ON  ISRAELI AND AMERICAN POLITICS AND THE REGION

Israel has every reason to believe they could be toast should a nuclear Iran emerge. This is not even an inference as Iran, with monotonous regularity, announce that Israel should be wiped of the face of the earth. Iran’s surrogates, terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah are constantly attacking Israel adding action to the threats. Hamas which took over the Palestinian territory of the West Bank, Israel unilaterally ceded it to the Palestinians, have unashamedly assailed Israel ever since. So Israel has a lot going on the outcome of these negotiations. 

How this diplomacy plays out will have a transforming effect on the internal politics of both America and Israel which could influence the position of Israel in the Middle East and the world. Jay H. Ell has blogged that Iran could become President Obama’s Achilles heel and as the partisan politics are playing out in Washington, if Obama is not careful, he could add Israel to his vulnerability. The Republicans have staked much on championing Bibi sensing the national mood is in favor of Israel as well as Obama’s antipathy to Netanyahu might lead him to act irrationally. The goading of Obama by the GOP could well cause him to act rashly and finally give the GOP an opening which they are poised to seize. Already in an article in the NY Times the feeling is articulated to Obama - "Enough already". 

The whole region is in flux and the outcome of the Iranian nuclear negotiations as well as the post Israeli election relationship between the United States and Israel will have a weighty influence on the new Middle East.

THE DEPRESSING ISRAELI ELECTION RESULTS - A PERSONAL REFLECTION

Jay H. Ell is depressed over the 2015 Israeli election results. Mostly, he is in a catatonic state over the behavior of the probable next Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, who has by sheer dint of personality projected himself as the face of Israel. In addition Netanyahu has thrust himself into the international limelight as the representative of all Jews. The only comfort Jay H. Ell can take is that opposition to him and all he represents is alive and well in and outside of Israel. 

All this begs the question as to why he is so despondent at the outcome of a highly democratic process, which in and of itself, is a beacon of enlightenment in the Middle East region. Is Jay H. Ell overreacting to the whole situation especially bearing in mind that he is the first to argue that Israel is a victim of double standards in a world where antisemitism is on the rise? (Blogs: “Evil - Isis and Hamas, World Hypocrisy and Anti - Semitism”, "The Caliphate,Sharia Law, Hamas,Isis or IS , Israel, Europe, War Crimes, Alma Aladdin, (George Clooney’s Wife), and Alice in Wonderland” and “Abbas and Arafat the Same DNA - So Let’s Get Real”). 

LEADERSHIP, NETANYAHU AND FORMER ISRAELI PRIME MINISTERS

Leadership, as Bibi Netanyahu well knows, is crucial as to the direction a country takes and to history itself. Bibi has made no bones about the fact that he sees himself as Churchill who undoubtedly saved the world from fascism and was the figure of the twentieth Century. Netanyahu fantasizes himself as the savior of Israel and Western Civilization against Islamic expansionist fundamentalism. (Blog: “Iran: Bibi’s Churchillian Fantasy and Obama’s Lack of Transparency”).

Netanyahu is a member of a unique and prestigious group of Prime Ministers who have served Israel. While these often represented opposite poles of Israeli politics no one ever accused any of them of ever putting their own political ambitions ahead of Israel’s best interests. Jay H. Ell will argue that Netanyahu has just done that methodically and with malice of forethought. It is harsh criticism that Jay H. Ell is directing at Netanyahu as it can be argued that to a lesser or greater extent all political leaders have to have an unflinching confidence in their own abilities and vision. So the burden is to argue why Netanyahu differs from his predecessors.

Israel’s former Prime Ministers from Ben - Gurion to Begin, Golda Meier to Sharon, Peres, Barak and Rabin to Shamir all were true to establishing a peaceful Israel and never ever gave up the covenant of the deal that lead to the founding of Israel - a two State solution. This they did in spite of provocation and in a far more hostile Arab world than exists today. They were ever mindful of the assistance they were receiving from whomever and more recently, both in the political and financial arenas from America. It is not an exaggeration to argue that without the United States Israel would not be in the powerful position today which, incidentally, Netanyahu feels is powerful enough to kick the US in the teeth. 

IRAN, NETANYAHU AND HIS PROTECTOR AMERICA

No other Prime Minster has been so deliberatively and consistently provocative and dismissive of an American Administration as Netanyahu. He has run against the American President in the United States, twice, and for his own objectives has antagonized him to the extent that Obama is no longer meeting with him or his duplicitous Ambassador. All this the Israeli Prime Minister has done while asking and receiving massive additional aid for Israel’s dome defense and munitions in its recent war against Hamas. This aid was accompanied by political support where the POTUS argued what is Israel supposed to do when rockets rain down on them? That political support was extended into the biased courts of world organizations. In short Netanyahu expected America to do what was right while he did what suited him regardless of how he embarrassed the American administration and made them look ridiculous. To the criticism of his actions Netanyahu replied to the effect that it was easy to mend relationships but he had to lead on Iran. 

To effect his aims he thus openly attacked the American Administration accepting again an invitation to address Congress on the danger of any deal with Iran. He, admittedly in an eloquent fashion, said nothing new and then used that address on his election website confirming, what had been alleged all along, that this whole production was a political stunt.  

Netanyahu has every right to have fears on a future Iranian accord, which is shared by half the Arab world, the whole free world, the whole of the American Congress and even Jay H. Ell, (Blog: "Iran: What is Obama Thinking?"), but he should have shared his doubts with the US Commander in Chief and the other negotiating countries in private. He would have not have been the first Israeli PM to have disputes with the American President but all have disbursed their doubts behind closed doors.

NETANYAHU’S ELECTION CAMPAIGN

IRAN

The Israeli Premier called this election two years earlier than scheduled as he was having trouble governing. (Blog:  “Netanyahu Is the Issue in Crucial Israeli Elections”).He fired two key Coalition Ministers from his Cabinet and proceeded on the basis that he and his Likud Party would gain an unassailable position at the hustings. His strategy would be Israel’s security and the Iranian threat. The fact is that his security personnel, almost to a man, believed that his Iranian assessments were wrong, and cautioned against his Congress speech as this would hamper relationships with the Obama administration. More significantly they did not share their Commander in Chief’s urgency with regard to Iran and implicitly were counseling a waiting attitude in connection with the ongoing negotiations. His security personnel felt so strongly on this issue that they wrote an open letter to the Premier signed by over a 100 former employees exhorting him not to proceed. Later they lead anti - Netanyahu rallies. Their concern was reportedly shared by the Israeli Generals. 

It is history that Netanyahu defied his Security experts on the Iranian security situation. Presumably he had read Boris Johnson’s recent Churchill biography where it was recalled that the British Prime Minister, while in the shower, had boomed to his son Randolph, that the strategy to win the war was to involve America. So that is exactly what Bibi set out to do, regardless of the consequences.

THE ARABS

Bibi’s initial Iranian Security policy to win the election had gone awry and it was beginning to look like that gamble had come unstuck. The Zionist party of Herzog and Livni were giving him a run for his money. What is more the electoral turnout was forecast to be on the low side as the right were not fully motivated.The Iran ploy had not done the trick so the Churchill wannabe pulled another rabbit out of his racist hat. This time it was the Arabs. He frightened his right wing out of their nooks and crannies by giving them code that the Arabs were taking over Israel via the ballot box. He raved on that the left wing NGO’s were bringing the Arabs to the ballot boxes by the busload. Thus rather than reflect what a true democracy Israel was and that all sectors have the franchise, an argument often used by him under different circumstances, he appealed to the basest of instincts to arouse his uninspired following. 

THE  PALESTINIAN STATE

The Arab scare wasn’t enough to shake his disillusioned base out of their stupor so he broke the covenant and pledged that there would not be a Palestine State as long as he was in power. The very raison d’être of Israel’s moral position, a two state solution, was to be sacrificed on the altar of Bibi’s ambition. Now Hamas and Abbas have not exactly been cooperative of late and the prospect of an arrangement is not exactly imminent but if you want to own the high ground and claim to be the civilized party this is not  the way to go.

This had to be the last straw for the exasperated Obama administration that spend much of their political capitol defending the concept that a two state solution cannot be foist on Israel as it has to be negotiated. Now Bibi says he doesn’t want one so why bother? Let slip the dogs and let the United Nations impose one. What will follow is sanctions and boycotts and self righteous indignation. Bibi will scream it is not fair. It isn’t but what is?

WHAT WAS BIBI THINKING IT WOULD ALL LEAD TO?

What Bibi was thinking that anything but anything must be done and said to win the election. He would sort it all out later. And so he did within two days. He said that he didn’t say what he said. The Washington Post headlined, “Backtracking, Netanyahu Says He Wants a Two- State Solution”. Bibi baldly maintained, “I don’t want a one - state solution. I want a sustainable peaceful two - state solution. But for that circumstances have to change”. The “circumstances” are changes in the region’s political and security landscape. Bibi forgot what he said two days earlier and blamed the failure of peace negotiations on Hamas who was a terrorist organization and the Palestinians who would not recognize the Jewish State. He didn’t even bother to say he had been “misunderstood”.

Meanwhile Obama was having none of it, having thrown away all pretense at one way civility, he initially did not even bother to even congratulate the Premier on his triumph. A WhiteHouse spokesperson, Josh Earnest, commented that Netanyahu’s announcement was “deeply concerning”. Netanyahu’s statements undermined the values and democratic ideals that are an important part of what binds America to Israel, Obama’s official argued. 

Other reports, quoting anonymous sources, claim that the US Administration are contemplating backing a UN resolution to end the Israeli and Palestinian conflict and impose conditions to ending it.

You cannot have it both ways Bibi. You cannot claim to be the paragon of virtue and then behave like the other side and maintain, like they do, that the Palestinians have no right to exist as a State. Bibi’s retraction was a joke. Who can now believe anything the self appointed messiah says?

So the Israelis and all those who support Israel’s right to exist are left with Netanyahu as their spokesperson. All the depressed can do is cross their fingers that there is still a way to go before he actually gains the premiership.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

* Israel’s standing in America, generally, has taken a knock but sentiment is still very much in favor. Imposing a solution to the Palestinian - Israeli impasse might create more problems than it solves as the Palestinians are hopelessly divided and up until today they would only accept, what Netanyahu wanted two days ago, a single state. The Congress, although the Democrats are still seething at what they saw as an insult to their President, are still sympathetic to Israel’s cause.

* Bibi’s international credibility has to be rock bottom. He has given the Palestinians the opportunity, which they have already seized upon, to claim the high ground. Their chief negotiator took no time to broadcast to the world. “That we told you so and that we accept Israel’s right to exist”. He can easily say later that isn’t what he meant as there is precedent for that type of thing.

* Iran is still looming large on the horizon and the way the cookie crumbles will have a bearing on the whole outcome. Obama holds all the cards. He can walk away from a “bad” deal and say he tried. If he gets a deal that he can justify he becomes incredibly powerful and Kerry can collect the Peace Prize as Barak has his already. On the other hand if the deal sucks Obama is in for a rough house and Bibi will be forgiven.

* If Iran turns sour on the Republicans they will abandon Bibi as surely as they embraced him. Addressing Congress as the maven on the subject can be a two edged sword if it turns out you were talking rubbish. 

* All this mess was so unnecessary. Was it so important for Bibi to become Premier that he complicated the already complicated issue?

* Now if Netanyahu had stayed at home and not spouted all that trash the bones and all the polls said that he would have not been Prime Minister. Then about half of Israel would have been ecstatic and Jay H. Ell would have not been depressed. Herzog would have been welcomed everywhere as a light at the end of the Hamas tunnels. The latter’s line on Iran is exactly the same as BIBI’s except he would have minded his own business and listened to his Generals and Security people and let the Iran and six nation talks play out. He too would have not sold Israel down the river and would have made it much harder for Abbas and Hamas to duck talks. Life would have been far less complicated for everybody.

That is why Jay H. Ell is catatonically depressed about the election outcome in Israel.

THE GOP MORPHS INTO THE TEA PARTY AND OPTS FOR ANARCHY

The Republican inflammatory rhetoric and flagrant disrespect towards the President of the United States reached rock bottom with their letter to the Ayatollah Khameini of Iran warning that deals and undertakings with American Presidents are useless as they can only last 4 years at best. (In fairness to the 47 Republican Senate signatories they only meant this if the President was President Obama). 

In a stroke nearly half the Republican controlled Senate confirmed the Ayatollah’s s oft stated opinion of America that it was “deceitful”. The fact that that this totalitarian fascist, who is the world’s greatest purveyor of terrorism, was given confirmation of his propaganda, by 47 Republican Senators, namely, that America would not honor its word and thereby allow the Iranian poobah to conclude that the letter itself was, “A sign of the ultimate degree of the political collapse of political ethics and internal political disintegration, (of America)”, made Jay H. Ell wince with shame and anger. 

The fact too that the GOP leadership was so spineless that it caved into a thirty - seven year old looney tunes Senator, Tom Cotton, who had been in the Senate for seventy whole days, not having as yet made a speech in that chamber, and allowed him to hijack their Party’s and United State’s foreign policy is mind boggling. All this after the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, John Boehner, had invited a foreign Prime Minister to come and lecture the President on American foreign policy in Congress. These behaviors are the ultimate confirmation, if any was needed, that the Tea Party is now the GOP.

The argument that there is great anxiety over Iran does not cut it as who hasn’t? (Blogs: “Iran: What is Obama Thinking?” and Iran: Bibi’s Churchillian Fantasy and Obama’s Lack of Transparency"). Obama has to know that he will get a veto proof majority against lifting of sanctions with a “bad” deal. He does not need to learn this from Republicans colluding with the enemy. (Has anyone thought how politically crippling it would be if, after all that bad mouthing and bile, the POTUS comes up with a blockbuster deal?)

HOW LOW CAN YOU GO

Perhaps the degeneration of Republican Party politics can be epitomized by how low Senator John McCain is prepared to stoop to remain part of the conversation of the Tea Party dominated GOP. Just six short years ago the then statesmanlike McCain, while the GOP Presidential candidate against Obama, chastised, to his own political detriment, a supporter who was alluding to the future Commander in Chief as a Muslim alien infiltrator. McCain stopped him in his tracks and lectured the shocked perpetrator that Obama was a decent American with whom he, McCain, had disagreements with. Now a term and a half later McCain, the Chairman of the Senate Arms Committee, is part of the hatchet team and has sunk so low as to sign a letter that sabotaged Obama’s and America’s integrity. 

THE NATURAL HISTORY OF THE TEA PARTY TAKEOVER

While it is fair to say that the GOP Establishment is embarrassed by this all they have to realize that their failure to fish or cut bait with the Tea Party six years ago has resulted in the Conservative takeover that they have, in fact, aided and abetted. In order to avoid confrontation with the growing loutish and outlandish behavior of the Tea Party upstarts, the GOP establishment had a strategy where they would focus on the only issue they both agreed upon - annihilate Obama. First and foremost they would try and prevent all the POTUS’s initiatives and would sabotage him on every turn. They then would oppose every and any legislative initiative even when it was against their political interest.

The GOP leader in the Senate Mitch McConnell was the choirmaster of this charade. McConnell’s policy did change from the first four years where it was to prevent Obama from having a second term to stymying him on any possible legislative initiative thereafter. John Boehner, Republican Speaker, gave in to his ever increasing fractious caucus and all he has done the past six years is try and undo Obama’s Affordable Health Care Act - no less than sixty times. 

Now from domestic policy to foreign policy the battering abuse and disdain has reached into every forum. With regard to foreign policy the Republican bile is treading on the very constitution that they scream day and night they they wish to uphold.

CONSTITUTIONAL IGNORANCE OF THE GOP/TEA PARTY

Now the Tea Party is heavily into the Constitution. They steadfastly argue, to whoever will listen, that it is what everything is all about - excepting of course when it relates to President Obama who apparently is not American so the Constitution doesn’t apply to him. Nevertheless by hook or by crook he became the American President. The powers relating to foreign policy are explicitly outlined in the Constitution. The latter empowers the President to conduct foreign policy on behalf of the United States. The President can negotiate “executive agreements” which are not subject to Senate approval. With regard to “treaties” the latter are initiated by the Senate and then ultimately ratified by the President. 

Now the Senators’ letter to the Ayatollah of Iran, apparently their newest best friend, had the objective of enlightening that leader on the intricacies of the American Constitution so that he would not be tricked by our President who was a closet Muslim, like the Ayatollah, and therefore could not be trusted. They generously informed Khameini that Obama could not negotiate a treaty with them, being ignorant of the fact that Obama was not attempting to do that. He would be involved with a non binding “executive agreement”. So their gratuitous intervention showed a faulty understanding of the Constitution and mislead the Supreme fascist of Iran as to Obama’s powers. 

The GOP ignorance of Constitutional law extends to the world scene where they more or less have instructed the five other negotiating nations, in addition to America, not to bypass them and do a deal with Iran that is ratified by the United Nations and thereby drop sanctions. They forget that not only are they not constitutionally in control of US Foreign Policy they also have no locus standi at the United Nations. For their information the Security Council initiated sanctions against Iran for over a decade without Tea Party input and if these are reversed they will not be involved either. Needless to say the impact of this letter has infuriated the other five nations and made America look even more ridiculous in the eyes of the world.

To clarify what the Senate are able to do in this situation: they can refuse to lift the current sanctions against Iran regardless of the talks and introduce new ones if they so desire. This they could legitimately do if there is a “bad” deal. For the moment, the Constitution as well as common courtesy needs them to shut up and not stab their President and Country in the back. 

SENATORS COMMIT TREASON

The Republican Senators, as the self proclaimed ultimate interpreters of the US Constitution, must have known that what they were perpetrating treason with their letter. However, in the interests of the “truth” were prepared to die. (They would prefer to die rather than go to jail for life as they are proponents of the death penalty). These constitutional experts of course were aware of the Logan Act of 1799 but in view of the “urgency” of the situation elected to ignore it. The Logan Act was enacted to prohibit unauthorized citizens from negotiating with foreign governments during a dispute with the United States Government. Logan tried to intervene with the French Government over the head of the lawfully elected President and in contravention of the Constitution. The fact that nobody of significance has been indicted under this Act it still undoubtedly makes sense. In war and in international relations one cannot have subversion that renders impotent a country’s negotiating power when parlaying with the enemy. 

GOP NO LONGER PLAYS BY THE RULES

The inescapable conclusion is that, currently, the Tea Party and therefore the GOP are technically involved in anarchy. This latest flagrant example is the cherry on the top and is the extreme end of the anarchy spectrum which spans from nobbling the legitimate activities of a government, refusing to ratify governmental appointments, shutting it’s workings and generally making a mockery of the intent of the US Constitution, to undermining the President while engaged in taming the enemy. 

As far the Tea Party is concerned it is their way or the highway and on their fringes there is even loose talk of armed insurrection. Their slavish support, promotion and defense of the Second Amendment, which grants citizens the right to bear arms, has lead to their association with dubious patriot groups who wander around with AK 47’s which they ostensibly need to hunt. They even supported that hill billy, Cliven Bundy, in Nevada who refused to pay his grazing taxes and who confronted the Feds with a posse of gun slingers who threatened to fire on the Government agents if they attempted to arrest this Tea Party hero. 

All this adds up to making the Republican Party aka Tea Party suspect. They are facing a reality they cannot accept, namely that the US demographics and culture have evolved to the extent that their archaic values are making it impossible for them to win a National Election. The fact that Obama won twice seems to have exacerbated their frustration. The GOP/Tea Party response has been to become obstructionist and anarchic rather than court and connect with the transforming demographic and culture in the USA. 

A HISTORICAL CHANGE IN REPUBLICAN PARTY’S POLICIES

The Republican Party Establishment have lost the battle and yet another change is to take place in the character of an established political party. Just as Lincoln’s Republican Party eventually became right wing and Johnson’s Democratic Southern Democratic Party was forced into the wilderness, Eisenhower’s middle of the road Republican Party is poised to morph into the Tea Party. Just to recall that the Johnson Civil Rights and Social Revolution in the 1960’s could have not happened without Republican support makes one realize how far deep the current GOP has descended back into the Dark Ages.

Sadly, it need not have happened. The Karl Roves of this world should have kicked the Tea Party out in 2008 when they could have and forced them to form a third party and they would have then faded into the sunset of history. 

The American version of Constitutional Government is about to face its sternest test for centuries as the new GOP attempts to place a condom on the march of history. Jay H. Ell, the eternal optimist, believes that the American citizenry will save the day and once again Winston Churchill’s prophecy that, “You can trust America to do the right thing once they have tried everything else”, will triumph and the current evolution of equality in human rights and the battle to overcome vast economic inequity will be victorious.