Israelis face a crucial election on March 17 this year. (Unlike in the States the electioneering is mercifully not a two year process.) The election was called by Prime Minister Netanyahu as he could not hold his coalition together. He fired two Cabinet Ministers Tzipi Livni and Yapir Lapid who were key members in his coalition government. The former is now an intractable opponent while Lapid is weighing his options. Netanyahu has managed, not surprisingly, to antagonize a wide range of Israeli politicians. That together with his asinine decision to address the US Congress, which has brought about opposition across the Israeli political spectrum and his in your face style, help make him the central issue in these elections.
He has always faced a very vigorous opposition on his Settlement and Palestinian policies and is the recipient of much criticism on the recent Hezbollah “incident”. The country is war and Netanyahu weary and that sometimes bodes for a change. Thus while Bibi is still the favorite to cobble together a coalition the situation is more fluid than ever before. (BLOG: ISRAEL AT A CROSSROADS WHILE ABBAS GOES OFF THE RAILS). He will have to overcome the “Anyone but Bibi “ sentiment that is pervasive at present. Of course the security situation in Israel can change and then all bets are off.
American and Israeli relationships, (a.k.a Netanyahu and the POTUS), are at there worst in living memory, and the Israeli electorate are taking this into account in casting their ballots. As the weeks roll by the action will be ratcheted up between the two allies. As a start Bibi has announced, in the eye of the storm, the building of four hundred and fifty more houses on the West Bank and the WhiteHouse have countered that they have no further use for the Israeli Ambassador to the United States.
ISRAEL’S FAR TOO DEMOCRATIC DEMOCRACY
The Israeli democratic process involves proportional representation allowing for all sections of the population to be in the Knesset. This means religious groups and pro settlement factions, for example, in addition to the Parties that represent clear cut political alternatives are all in the mix. That is all very well and lovely and may be dandy in the Garden of Eden municipal elections but with two dozen entities having a presence in the final shakeup it makes it very difficult to form a stable government. It is projected that Netanyahu’s Likud and Herzog’s Hatnua/Labour amalgamation will both have a similar number of seats, approximately twenty - four in the 120 member Chamber.
So the choices of the other parties, that tally to two thirds of the Legislature, become crucial in the final outcome as to who forms the government. Parties come and parties go in this highly fluid environment so anything could happen. Also the invective and smears have reached a new high for Israeli politics with the Israeli Premier’s wife, never very popular, being accused of corruption and the leader of Labour being confronted with allegations that he is being backed by foreign money,
NETANYAHU COULD JUST LOSE OUT
On the face of it Netanyahu , according to the Brooking’s Institute, has a natural coalition of 71 votes but it is a bit wobbly. This would be himself, Bennet’s Settlement party, Kaldon’s Kulani party, the religious parties and Lieberman’s Yishai. Bibi has managed to antagonize a whole host of key players. Besides Livni and Lapid, who is ostensibly undecided but politically is of the center, the right winger Moshe Kahlon had a right royal row with Netanyahu and his own new party Kuhlanu is projected to get about 10 seats. Then two of the religious parties, (10 - 12 representatives), are really angry with the current PM whom they believe sold out on them to the secular orthodox. The Meretz Party with six legislators are out and out anti Netanyahu together with an Arab coalition, (who are projected to garner a dozen seats) will not be in the PM’s camp. Even Lieberman whose Party has taken a big knock because of corruption allegations claims to be moving to the center. So the potential is there to unseat the incumbent regime and its leader.
NETANYAHU’S BIG BLUNDER
As followers of Jay H. Ell may have picked up he has never been a big fan of Bibi. He regards him as an arrogant and confrontative bull in a china shop, an opinion shared by most Israelis as, after all these years only about a sixth of them bother to vote for him and his Likud Party. Ironically, he has more support in America than he has back home. This especially in Congress where to date he has been every one’s poster child. The Israeli PM enjoys mixing in American politics relishing in the pro Israeli sentiment which he misinterprets as adulation of his eloquence and charisma. He has been childishly “running against” Obama since time immemorial and to date has gotten away with it. (BLOG: NETANYAHU AND MAYBE OBAMA TOO JUST DON’T GET IT).
Israeli Criticism
Be that as it may, he may finally have just overstepped the mark by agreeing to address a joint Congress meeting at the invitation of House Speaker Boehner on the Iranian nuclear project. (Incidentally, sections of the American media seem to think that the Israeli Ambassador to America had more than a bit to do with Boehner’s invitation). Netanyahu has everything to lose and nothing to gain. He had almost unanimous American support already so why go and risk anything by this rude interlude? The opposition to Netanyahu’s American projected sojourn is almost unanimously condemned by every sector of the Israeli society.
Right Wing Condemnation.
No one has summed the lunacy up better than the right wing, pro settlement TV talk show host, Avi Perry who in an op ed piece in the pro Netanyahu Newspaper, Arutz Sheva, gave him the following advice in telling him to abandon his March 17 Washington suicide mission:
“The PM will only broaden the existing chasm between the Israeli PM and the American Administration. What is more Netanyahu’s speech may spread the rift to areas beyond the Iranian nuclear problem. It might even set off an emotional need for retribution by the White House.” Sheva continued, "In a no win situation there is a path to a lose lose situation”. His advice to Netanyahu, whom he buttered up in most of his piece, was to cancel his speech to Congress citing “security or domestic issues”. He ends by pleading to his leader, “To decline being manipulated by the Republican leadership in Congress. This political maneuver is merely to provoke the President, devoid of attaining any genuine meaningful fallout”.
Sheva must know better than anyone else that no one manipulates Bibi and this just a sycophantic contrivance to allow him to back off with some ego intact.
Former Mossad Head’s Scathing Criticism
The former Head of the Israeli Secret Service. Meyer Degan, was not nearly as subtle. He angrily responded to the Israeli PM’s meddling, “I don’t trust Netanyahu, his actions will cost us”. He and Bennett are leading us to a binational State and disaster… and his actions might extract an unbearable price from us in the future ”. He should know as protecting Israeli’s security is what he did for a living. Degan gave some insight as to Netanyahu’s megalomaniac personality when he recalled a conversation he had with him during his tenure where Netanyahu had complained, “ Why don’t you indulge me? You are my subordinate. I told him I am his subordinate but loyal to the State”. Degan made it quite clear that Israel would prevail regardless and all but said that the current Israeli PM’s assessment of the Iranian threat and his threatened responses were not sound.
Left wing and center criticism
Needless to say the Israeli left and center believe that Netanyahu’s hubris has reached new heights. The largest circulation newspaper in Israel, Yedioth Ahronoth, was highly critical of the Israeli Premier’s crass intervention, banner headlining the whole sorry saga, with the assessment that Bibi was “Losing America”. Nahum Barnea, a columnist of that newspaper, argued that, “It is dangerous, it’s toxic and it’s not so funny anymore”. Not unexpectedly Netanyahu’s main political rival Yitzhak Herzog retorted strongly - “What Netanyahu is doing with his brutish behavior is deliberately hurting Israel’s security interests. The American political system cannot stand this behavior”.
A potential key coalition partner also weighed in. Yair Lapid accused Netanyahu “..of destroying our strategic relations with America for an election speech”. Left wing leader of the Meretz Party filed a complaint with the election commission to bar Netanyahu’s Congressional speech in the media because the electoral laws ban electioneering within two weeks of the election.
Michael Oren, the immediate past Israeli Ambassador to the United States urged Netanyahu to cancel his speech.
American criticism
Netanyahu has finally succeeded in having any criticism of him and by extension Israel stilled. His acceptance of Boehner’s unprecedented request has resulted in a storm that is gathering momentum. Any fantasy he and Boehner may have had of reversing Obama’s foreign policy has been quashed. If anything the converse has happened. The Democratic Senator Menendez, a leading hawk on Iran, has stated that he would not vote for his own motion increasing sanctions on Iran pending the President’s negotiations. Nine of the pro sanction Democrats in the Senate have supported his stand. These actions have axed any possibility of the Republicans getting the necessary sixty votes to even question the President’s foreign policy.
Nancy Pelosi the Democratic leader in the House of Representatives has stated that Netanyahu’s projected speech would send the wrong message and hinder diplomatic efforts to obtain a satisfactory solution to the current Iranian impasse. She echoed Obama’s objection that this invitation was within two weeks of the Israeli election and that Boehner had made the overture, unilaterally, without consulting all leaders in the Congress let alone the WhiteHouse. Harry Reid the Democratic leader in the Senate remonstrated with Netanyahu arguing that his actions had resulted in several Democrats withdrawing their support for sanctions on Iran. Reid, an avid protagonist of Israel warned, “I am not telling you what to do or what not to do but Boehner’s invitation was not the right thing to do”.
Richard Cohen writing in the Washington Post says he will tell as it is. Netanyahu has allied himself with the Republican Party who want to destroy the President and “who hate his guts”. “Netanyahu will be a delegate from abroad at the next Republican National convention”, Cohen maintained. Cohen listed the long list of displays of open contempt Netanyahu has executed towards Obama. Netanyahu he argued will break up the Congresses bipartisan policy on Israel.
The WhiteHouse spokesmen in a masterpiece of understatement labelled the affair, “A departure from protocol”, while the President and Secretary Kerry have refrained from criticizing Boehner for his challenging invitation. Rather they have just stated that they will have no meeting with the Israeli Prime Minister as that might be seen to be interfering in the Israeli electoral process. Their message is far to subtle for the boorish Bibi who is cheerfully doing just that by cheerleading the attack on the leader of a country that has been Israel’s greatest ally.
The two major Jewish political groups, who are more often than not at loggerheads on what America’s position on Israel should be, were ad idem on Boehner's behest. The head of the Anti - Defamation League, Abe Foxman called it “ill advised” while Jeremy Ben - Ami of J Street labelled it as a cynical political maneuver at Israel’s expense.
AT THE END OF THE DAY - WHAT BIBI WANTS BIBI WON’T GET
* Bibi has to know that this bohaai has just begun and Jay H. Ell believes it has “legs”. There are about 2 months to go before the crucial Israeli election and the steam may really build up before Bibi hits town. The likelihood of criticism of this bizarre political event increasing has to be great and there appears to be no major constituencies supporting Netanyahu. As each day goes past another sequel unravels. Nancy Pelosi stated that she was “unsure” how many Democrats would attend Netanyahu’s speech.
* Bibi should take the advice of all sections of the Israeli and American community and cancel his trip. While he may lose face it is better than the alternative - seven weeks of criticism on both sides of the Atlantic. As indicated he has any number of excuses to allow him to back off. Besides citing security and his own domestic affairs as priorities he could offer that he has just learned that the invitation was not bipartisan and that he has no desire to mix in party politics in a foreign country.
* Bibi is unlikely to see reason and has already announced that his bags are packed and he is ready to go. He maintains that, "It is easier to mend US ties than a bad Iranian deal”. Jay H Ell feels he too must tell as it is - the man is psychotic. To believe he can change American and world foreign policy when he has already been told to jump in the lake is certifiable behavior. Then to be deluded enough to think that he and he alone “can mend the US ties” as if an accepting Obama is waiting like a love sick suitor to be told that his philandering partner has finally come home!
* What Bibi wants is totally unrealistic. There is no way that the six allied countries can legitimately stop Iran from having nuclear energy plants. Conversely there is no way that they can allow Iran to build a nuclear bomb.The deal has to be that Iran can only manufacture low grade uranium or whatever and would be subject to inspections. That stopped Iraq as was subsequently shown. If Bibi really believes allowing any nuclear activity by Iran is a declaration of war he better muscle up and prepare to attack Iran preemptively now. A stratagem that has been repeatedly poo - poohed by his security infrastructure.
- Bibi might have legitimate fears about Iran and the deal. However he well knows the US Congress’s attitude towards Iran. Iran since the seventies has been pariah number one. The legislature need no help from Bibi to decide what to do with a “sell out” deal. As Jay H. Ell has blogged that this is the one area Obama could be vulnerable on. The inescapable conclusion is that this is a narcissistic, counterproductive and reckless exercise by an individual who is putting his own personal and political interests ahead of his country’s.
- Bibi should appreciate that the US in particular is aware of the vulnerable situation Israel is in and the double standards they face, so why would he bite the hand that feeds him? (BLOG: EVIL - ISIS AND HAMAS, WORLD HYPOCRISY AND ANTI SEMITISM).
* Bibi, finally soak this in. The reason that there are nuclear talks at all, is that reacting to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, there are Obama lead sanctions that have brought Iran to its knees and forced them to the table. While Obama is not going to see the world from Bibi’s perspective he has not come this far to make it easy for Khomeini to cast a mushroom over the Middle East and the world.
One can only hope if the Likud leader is unrelenting the Israeli electorate and the leaders of the factions they represent will not be and vote him out.
No comments:
Post a Comment