It is becomingly increasingly more obvious that Iran has no intention of relinquishing its capability of creating a nuclear weapon. Increasingly more obvious to everyone, everyone that is, other than Obama and his administration. (Jay H. Ell has blogged on more than one occasion that this whole prolonged circus, in an attempt to create a solution to the Iranian nuclear deal, will be Obama’s achilles heel: Blog: “Netanyahu and Maybe Obama Too - Just Don’t Get It’). Obama has plodded on and on extending the date for a settlement again and again as Iran cheerfully lead him on a merry dance maintaining that there will be no deal, “that takes away Iran’s self respect”. Unhappily, that “self respect” extends to the Ayatollah’ s right to set up centrifuges wherever he likes and whenever he likes. More recently this whole crucial issue has been lost in the sideshow created by the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who wishes to grandstand in Washington for domestic political purposes, Republican House Speaker Boehner, who never misses an opportunity to denigrate the Office of the Presidency and the POTUS, himself, who is now openly irritated by the antics of Bibi Netanyahu allowing it to cloud his judgement.
It is time to return to what is really at stake here - the risk of making Iran a nuclear superpower thereby aiding its ambitions, first to neutralize then obliterate Israel, dominate the Muslim world and then become the other major political superpower on the planet.
HOW IT ALL STARTED.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, (IAEA), as early as 2006, disclosed to the UNO that Iran was not in compliance with the International Treaty on non -proliferation. The saga has continued ever since then with the Security Council voting 4 times to inflict sanctions on Iran. However, the sanctions have really gained teeth with the US and the European Union upping the ante with financial restrictions thereby bringing the Iranian economy to its knees.
In the interim all opposition to the regime within Iran has mercilessly been put down. The most celebrated revolt was in 2009 and 2010, following upon Ahmadinejad’s re-election, where blatant fraud was alleged. The Ayatollah Khomeini clamped down with an iron fist. Well over a 100 protestors were thought to have been killed and tens of thousands tortured and raped. Communication was cut off from the outside but it did not stop the carnage being broadcast across the world when the drama of a twenty - three year old lady, Neda Agha- Soltan's, cold blooded murder was downloaded onto You Tube for all the world to see. (How short are all our memories).
Khamenei investigated the alleged fraud and found the election to be “ completely free” and a victory for Iran’s democracy. The subsequent uprising he attributed “to exuberance” such as seen after a soccer match. He failed to publicly applaud his highly effective crowd control operation which has allowed his totalitarian game to continue without further material interruption.
Then came the 2013 Iranian elections when the odious thug Ahmadinejad was replaced by the sweet smelling thug Rouhani. Really all irrelevant in the grand scheme of things when it is the Ayatollah who calls all the shots anyway. Rouhani the newly retreaded President of Iran, his country nearly out for the count with massive devaluation of its currency, the shelves of its stores empty and the Iranian natives surely restless, decided as an act of love, peace and reconciliation in November of 2013 to sign an historic Pact with the five members of the Security Council and Germany. (This represented the first such gathering, that included America, in the thirty four years since the Iran hostage crisis where the Iranians held 52 American diplomats for 444 days).
The initial meeting of the “Geneva Interim Agreement” adjourned till February 18 - 20, - 2014 that is, and then again adjourned till March 17, - 2014 that is, and they have been adjourning ever since till March 17, - 2015 that is.
Just to end this segment the way it was started the IAEA reported to the six supervising countries last week that, “Iran has still not addressed specific questions from the Agency over whether it explored the weaponization process in the past”.The IAEA report further stated that Teheran is still not co operating in two areas of their investigation. The IAEA has produced similar communiques over the years so this really nothing knew.
All this begs the question - What is the Obama administration thinking?
WHY OH WHY ARE WE HERE?
This whole Iranian deal is a relic of the original Obama dream - “…there are no red states or blue states only the United States” and the world really wants peace - remember the receptions Barak received everywhere, in Berlin and then in Oslo when they gave him the Nobel Peace Prize just for “Being There”. He was "the man". There is one thing being "the man: in everyone’s dreams but there is another delivering in political reality. Ironically, Obama has had his fantasy knocked out of him in “The United States” and most of the rest of the world but for whatever reason Iran lingers on. It lingers on because if he managed to persuade those crazies to see reason they should give him and, as their wont, the crazy that he does the deal with, a Nobel Peace Prize. So the more this dragged on the greater the stakes were for him to succeed. The longer it lasts the bigger the royal idiot he will be when it fails. Everyone has told him so, most significantly, the Grand Old Party and Bibi, of course.
So for the POTUS the talks just cannot fail. He is supposedly desperate. An anonymous Iranian report maintained that he has begged the Iranians for any deal so that he can save face. He better face the reality that an acceptable deal is just not going to happen.
There is a kind of fall back position. Secretary of State John Kerry has just announced that the USA is ready to inflict more sanctions on Iran if they renege. Guess what? That is what they have been threatening since day one. Sadly nobody believes a word the hardworking but ineffectual Kerry says.
So here we are awaiting yet another meeting of the two sides, with the background, that once again the Iranians have failed to honor the Geneva agreement. The initial arrangement allowed for a teaser easing of the economic pain in return for less uranium to be enriched by the fundamentalist state. The slight loosening of the monetary noose is there for all to see and all we have is Iran’s word that they are enriching less uranium, not the IAEA.
WHAT ARE THE PRIZES?
The big prize for Iran would be an accord heralding the lifting of the debilitating sanctions. Their fiscal plight has been mired even deeper this past year with the plunging price of oil. Iran can hardly shape up to its divine mission if it is desperately short of cash. For America and the rest of the Universe the jackpot would be the theocracy being unequivocably unable to produce a nuclear weapon. But as negotiations stand there is no way that this rational outcome is on the table. Instead a whole host of compromises are being floated to allow the Iranians “self respect”.
While supposedly the negotiations are in secret they are being freely debated in every media outlet. It appears that if Iran enriches only a low percentage of uranium for ten to fifteen years then they would be allowed to proceed with the nuclear energy program. After the ten to fifteen years Iran would be subject to the normal provisions of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Agreement. The problem is that “self respect" for this oil rich nation entails thousands of nuclear reactors. Now the IAEA has chimed in claiming that monitoring such a program would be impossible. They could manage a few hundred atomic facilities but the projected number would be impossible to inspect adequately.
Jay H. Ell has another observation, it was Iran’s refusal to honor the nuclear pact in the first place that precipitated this crisis. He believes nothing in their subsequent behavior gives him any confidence that Iran has changed its belligerent attitude. What are the six nations going to do if Iran just continues defying the IAEA after sanctions have been lifted? Declare war and invade? Ostensibly the answer to that question is that compliance will not be entrusted to the Iranians but rather “technical parameters”. But that still begs the question what the six will do if Iran does break the deal as measured by technical parameters?
Another ticklish issue is where will the enriched uranium be sequestered - in Iran or in another country? All these unresolved concerns have not been finalized. It appears for the moment there are more booby prizes than big prizes in the offing.
The can is being kicked further and further down the road. Now by the end of the March there will be an agreed upon framework and by the end of June an agreed upon treaty.
OPPOSITION TO THE “PRE ARRANGEMENTS”
The above solutions are creating a sharp reaction from detractors. No- one seems to be buying the State Department disclaimer that as there is no accord yet all this speculation is irrelevant. Nor are they buying the State Department’s other contradictory lame response that they are not announcing details as Netanyahu is sure to focus on a few “bad” points and blow them out of proportion. Speaking of Bibi he needs no encouragement to verbalize how he really feels. He rightly scoffed at the claim that he didn’t know what was going on and feigned shock at the fact that the talks are still proceeding after the IAEA report. Netanyahu’s credibility has taken a knock with Mossad contradicting him on his assessments as to when Iran could produce a nuclear weapon. His estimate being a year and his Security people believing that it would be much longer. Also Netanyahu’s poor showing in the pre election polls has taken the gloss of his persona.
Of far greater significance than the Israeli PM’s pre election grandstanding, was the reaction of the Gulf Arab States and Egypt. The latter have made it crystal clear to Washington their opposition to the current deal that is floating around. They, more than anyone else, are aware of Iran’s territorial and political ambitions. Their most telling prediction to Obama is that this will trigger off a nuclear race in the Middle East. While, as yet, there is no formal alliance between the Israelis and this group they have a common agenda - the containment of the theocratic Republic of Iran.
In the unlikely event that a compromise is finally hammered out, it better be acceptable as Obama has a mad dog Congress baying at his heels ever on the look out for blood. The Commander in Chief had his work cut out to persuade the legislature to postpone voting additional sanctions on Iran a short while ago. If he presents a deal that they determine is a sell out he will hit a veto proof majority to stop it as this is an issue that there will be no problem garnering Democratic support. They don’t need Netanyahu’s counterproductive appearance and his proclaiming himself the messiah of all jews throughout the world has created a backlash. Netanyahu’s guest appearance may well persuade wavering Democrats to stay loyal to the POTUS while the Israeli Premier’s behavior has split the American Jewish Community that would otherwise been ad idem on this issue. No doubt in the event of Congress kiboshing the Iranian deal Netanyahu will claim full credit for the achievement.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
The odds are heavily stacked against Obama and the leaders of the other five nations. The options appear to be a bad deal or no deal. Obama has wasted too much political capital on this issue. No one can claim that he hasn’t given it the good old college try. Granted the elephant in the room is that the Ayatollah controls the only army in the region that could take out ISIS. But at the end of the day ISIS is more of Iran’s problem than it is anyone elses. They represent the greatest threat to Iran’s territorial ambitions and are hobbling his allies Syria and Iraq. They are also commanding the attention and resources of their surrogate terrorist arm, Hezbollah. Iran is posturing much like Russia - they are on their knees yet they are brazening it out calling the shots.
So come on Barak, what are you thinking? Tell them, the next time there is an impasse or if they want 15,000 centrifuges, to jump in the lake and up the ante by turning on the screws with more sanctions. You are dealing with a crowd who function in a different paradigm. Do you seriously think that they will allow ISIS to take a chunk out of their empire? A deal with them will anger several American ally Arab states even if you are angry with Bibi. Nor incidentally has Iran the slightest intention of abandoning their nuclear quest which is supposed to be the object of this exercise.
The sooner President Obama can call this charade to a close the better.
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