THE 2016 GOP PRESIDENTIAL HORSE RACE:

Handicapping the runners for the 2016 GOP Presidential Race is no easy task as the only entry qualifications for this horse race are money, lack of insight and chutzpah. Already there are 17 entries or near entries and campaigning has started with a vengeance, two years before the off. This early start is ironic because Reince Priebus, the GOP National Chairman, following the 2012 Presidential disaster, set into motion two programs to ensure a Republican victory in 2016. One was an “autopsy” which  led to recommendations as to what the platform of the GOP should be. The other was a program to shorten dramatically the Primary session where, in 2012, the GOP candidates slaughtered one another using up endless money while they scratched each others eyes out in 20 debates. To remedy this prolonged infighting the GOP Convention would be moved forward from late August and the number of debates decreased. 

Both Reince’s efforts have come to naught as campaigning has started very early with Jeb Bush’s unexpected announcement. In addition every recommendation from the GOP autopsy which was to change the GOP image as, “…scary narrow-minded stuffy old men that do not care about people”, has been ignored. Also the gloves are off as various factions and individuals battle to define who the GOP are. The electorate is in for a reality show second to none while Hillary piles up the boodle, looks Presidential and watches “The return of Romney, and his opponents, part three.”

GOP “AUTOPSY”

Just so that Jay H. Ell’s detractors, (who are legion and that is why he won’t go on FaceBook because he couldn’t handle the dislikes), cannot say that he is making this up, one needs to chronicle why whoever gets the GOP nomination is chanceless as none of the fabulous seventeen are taking too much notice of the “autopsy” recommendations. The latter were said to be essential for a Republican victory in 2016. They included an outreach to the minorities - the Hispanics, the Pacific Islanders and the African -Americans. Already the number one GOP legislative priority has been to veto Obama’s Executive Orders on dispensation for those Hispanics who are parents of American citizens and residents and those who were brought here as children. The Democratic support from Hispanics has gone up twenty -  three percent since the midterms where Obama shut up because he was told to do so by the Dem woeses. 

Another group to be targeted were women but the GOP legislature have refused to enact an equal pay for equal work for women legislative move. That together with their rigid abortion approach, which nearly sixty percent of all Americans disagree with, does not put them off to a good start. In fact the autopsy virtually told them to lay off social issues which would take away the agendas of most of the prospective 2016 Presidential runners. Then, guess what, the postmortem told them? They need to take into account the lower income Americans. Obama has come up with a strong of suggestions to improve the latter’s lot that they have vehemently opposed. These include increasing the minimum wage to providing credits for working mothers and for childcare as well as subsidizing the astronomical costs of tertiary education. To complete the quartet of recommendations, the persistent almost universal attack on the LBGT’s was a no no as it just turns the youth off as poll after poll shows.   

So if dear old Reince and his commission into the Republican woes are correct whoever is the GOP Presidential nominee may as well stay at home as nothing has changed, in fact it has gotten worse. But nevertheless let’s give the prospective list the good old college try. But before that let us see how the oddsmakers rate the candidates’ chances.

LADBROKES THE BOOKMAKERS AND GOP CHANCES.

Ladbrokes in London rate Jed Bush the outright favorite to win the GOP nomination. The problem is that even if Jed wins, the Republican Party are not given a better than Jed’s six to one chance of beating Hillary. Now in a two horse race to get six dollars for your one is amazing odds so GOP faithful this is your chance to strike it rich. In fact if you believe Romney will be the candidate and up to time of going into print he is the GOP front runner you can get sixteen dollars to your one if he wins the Presidency. It gets even better with other serious candidates such as Rand Paul who will get you twenty, Scott Walker, (the last white hope) will deliver twenty  - five, Ted Cruz thirty -  three and the two Ricks, Santorum and  Perry would land you fifty. 

So for the convinced that the GOP are going to elect the next President and who just know who the candidate is going to be this is your chance to break out of poverty. If, for example, you think Sarah Palin is the business, and remember she is the standard bearer and kingmaker of the Tea Party that really controls the GOP at the moment, take two thousand dollars out of your pension fund or get a cash withdrawal from your credit card at usurious rates of about thirty percent and back Sarah. When she wins you will then have a hundred thousand in cash and could start a small business and soon become a “giver” instead of being a “taker”. Personally Jay H. Ell believes you will just become a “giver” to Ladbrokes but he has been wrong before.

Or maybe everyone should have a reality check and realize that Ladbrokes have not become the foremost oddsmakers for anything and everything since 1800 because they are in the social welfare business. Every now and then a heavily backed fifty to one shot arrives and they happily pay out because gambling is all about hope and fantasy. They cheerfully broadcast their big losses so that you may bet in one of their 2700 world wide outlets or online where they have nearly a million customers.

Needless to say this reality has not impacted the GOP race so lets get back to showbiz. The hopefuls will be aided and abetted by the media who rake in billions in advertising revenue by pretending this is a close race. They will have their experts day in and day out opining on this that and the other, the ups the downs, the ins the outs, not for one moment telling it as it is. 

THE GOP HORSE RACE - BACKGROUND

Its very difficult to break down the groups into camps because they are all for themselves. They are all very conservative. The GOP Primaries has a natural history of everyone trying to outflank each other from the right in order to win the Primary of the grand old State of Iowa. Why they would want to do that is not quite certain as since it has become a right wing haven. Since Huckabee won in 2008 and Santorum in 2012 it has become less and less relevant. After the South Carolina Primary the contenders change color a bit and the final nominee, to quote Romney’s handlers last time, regards what has gone on up till then as erasable as jottings on an etch a sketch. For the actual election you must reinvent yourself. (As we will see we are about to encounter the sixth new Romney and if he gets the nomination the seventh).  And as Jed Bush opined in a rare insightful moment, to win the Presidency you would have to lose the nomination race first. Makes one understand why mama Bush told Jed not to run.

Another problem, that is not so much a problem anymore, is getting backers. There are backers a plenty since the Supreme Court anointed the rich as the kingmakers saying they could all spend as much as they liked, whenever they liked on whomever they liked. That is what democracy and free speech is all about. So a guy like Santorum in the last election had a heavy loaded backer so he just  carried on running even though he couldn’t win. In fact this has become a past time of the mega rich. In the good old days to show of your wealth you bought a racehorse in the hope you could win the Triple Crown and show your brethren that you had more toys than they did. Now you can buy yourself a presidential nominee and the rush is on to join in. 

Behind closed doors and in the open the plutocrats are placing their bets. The Koch brothers met with Cruz, Rand Paul, Rubrio and Scott Walker. The Kochs are already committed to spending a billion dollars through their political organization “Freedom Partners”. This is as much as each individual political party spends and its thanks to the Supreme Court, Citizen United decision. Just to let that sink in, the Koch brothers can buy the same influence as one of the two official parties.

According to “Time” a number of backers are sifting through their options and there are heavy hitters who also have entree to donors and can raise megabucks in just one evening. Sheldon Adelson the casino mogul is still to hold his “Primary”. It will be attended by a lot of candidates who around about this time of the electoral cycle suddenly become very interested in the Jewish Republican caucus in Nevada.

What really is striking to Jay H. Ell is that the candidates have no loyalty to their brand. Let us take candidates Christie, Bush and Romney who are charitably called less conservative. Apparently they are Republican Establishment candidates. To give their cause the best shot two should step down. In response to such talk we are reassured that there is enough money for all of them! So the comparison to the candidates being prize racehorses is not that far fetched. The stakes for winning this race must be high, bearing in mind that just to enter you will need a minimum of 50 million dollars and over a billion for the Presidential race. 

THE RACE PROPER.

Several of the candidates met just this weekend. They congregated under the aegis of anti immigrant, (in fact anti everything except money for elections), Congressional Representative King, at an event he entitled, The Iowa Freedom Summit. It really was a Conservative bun fest and everyone was there that should have been there. It was interesting to note that other than Christie the “Establishment” stars were absent. There were no less than ten prospective runners. Again if Jay H. Ell was Representative King, he would get the guys together and see who has the best shot at winning the nomination but that is just not going to happen. 

After watching the Tea Party candidates at the Iowa Freedom Summit it was difficult to believe they were anything but one big joke but this conservative crowd is laughed off at the Establishment’s peril. With seventeen runners, depending on the way the cookie crumbles, anyone could emerge. Romney emerged last time out because he was the only Establishment candidate. For the major part of the Primaries he was second choice as the more powerful Tea Party Conservative wing of he party put up an “Anyone but Romney Candidate”. When one goofed, which happened with monotonous regularity, he or she was replaced by the next one. It is a fact that at least 7 tea party alternatives lead Romney at one stage or another till the latter outstayed the field. As a recent Fox News newsletter warned the Establishment should take more notice of the powerful conservative group that have dictated GOP policy for the past six years.

Jay H. Ell is not going to go into any detail on the field at this stage other than to discuss the “favorite son” of the Establishment and Ladbroke’s favourite for the GOP nomination, Jed Bush.

JED IS THE ESTABLISHMENT.

Jed is the latest prominent member of the Bush dynasty and dynasty it is. Besides two Presidents 41, and 43 their influence dates back to daddy Bush’s daddy, Prescott Bush, who was in the Senate before him. It bears repeating that since 1972 there has been no Republican President in the WhiteHouse without a Bush on the ticket. 

Bush 41 was Reagan’s Vice President and then became President himself. Then there was Bush 43 and that is a big part of Jed’s problem. But back to 41, he was National Chairman of the GOP in the Nixon days, he has been in the Senate and Congress, been ambassador to the UNO and China and headed the CIA. Jed’s mother, Barbara, a matriarch if ever there was one, was distantly related to President Pierce and has been prominent and popular in public affairs. So the Bushes are the Establishment.

So in racehorse parlance Jed is bred in the purple. The family has connections that go way back. Jed has also been a highly successful Governor of Florida a key state that almost certainly would go to Hillary with any other GOP candidate. He is married to a Hispanic and speaks fluent Spanish and has distanced himself from the pack by saying he favors a pathway to citizenship. To date the Establishment has always got its way. So why isn’t he a shoo in?

His brother Dubbaya, 43, whom he regularly identifies with, is one of the key reasons why the Tea Party was founded. Whether Jed likes it or not he now is emblematic, to the base, of all things wrong with the GOP. He, as mentioned earlier, fancies his chances more in a Presidential race than in the GOP primaries. He faces problems Romney never had as he has direct competition for Republican votes from three other very strong candidates. Two are labelled “Establishment”  - combustible Christie and good old Romney himself. A third hopeful is as menacing as he is from Florida as well, Senator Mark Rubrio. The latter is Hispanic and was an author of the original Immigration Reform Bill that passed the Senate. He has lived down the latter and thus has lost the right to be the standard bearer of Hispanic voters but his credentials in that arena are at least as good as Jed’s. So not only is the whole Tea Party faction starting off irreconcilably antagonistic, Bush has opposition from within and he has stiff competition from those Hispanics who are going to vote in the GOP Primaries.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY

It is early days yet and Jay H. Ell would not back, even with stolen money, Jed, as the Republican nominee as anything can happen in this freak show that is going to be a 20 month wonder.  Of course you can just give that whole monumental production a wide berth and back Hillary now as Ladbrokes are generously giving you one dollar for each dollar you wager if she becomes President. Those odds will shorten dramatically once this a two horse race for the "President's Cup".

Of far more significance than Ladbrokes’s insights and profit making is the impact outright ownership of the candidates might have on democracy. The candidates care far less about their own philosophy triumphing than they do about their own ambitions. They too will learn that their reliance, on what has become billions of dollars may not come without a total loss of their independence. No racehorse ever decides what races to run in and Jay H. Ell cannot remember a single horse race when someone or other had not maintained that the race was crooked.