There are two central issues that are currently facing Israel, Zionism and Palestine. Most of the discussion revolves around the two state solution to the seventy year old Israeli - Palestinian conflict. The latter situation has altered dramatically as a result of Mahmoud Abbas’s precipitous international actions in throwing down the gauntlet at Israel and once again showing the USA the finger in their attempt at engineering a two state solution. Jay H. Ell, however, believes that the central concern to the survival of Israel is less and less dependent on the threat that the PLO and Hamas engender and world opinion on the matter but rather the value system and policies that Israel adopts internally which is the other crisis faced by the Israelis .
He believes that the shambolic destructive leadership of Palestine with their total disregard for their own citizens does not propose an ultimate threat because if Israel’s survival really depended upon it they could blow both territories to kingdom come. Israel’s continuity is ultimately dependent on its adherence to its democratic value system that served as the basis for its establishment and for its subsequent survival against incredible odds.
THE PALESTINIAN LEADERSHIP ONCE AGAIN REJECTS A USA NEGOTIATED PEACE INITIATIVE
Jay H. Ell is firmly persuaded that the PLO under the leadership, first of Arafat and now of Abbas, were and are still not really interested in a two state solution. The most recent little reported, nine and a half month US attempt at bridging the gap between the two antagonists once again bears that out. Livni, Israel’s negotiator said that Netanyahu thought the deal hammered out with Kerry was fair and the impression was that Abbas was on sides. Abbas flagrantly defied one of its key provisions that he would not seek any other international solutions while the terms were being negotiated. The deal called for the release of several Palestinian prisoners as well as the return of the Israeli spy Pollard who is languishing in an American prison. Netanyahu agreed that further settlements would be frozen. Abbas, acting as Arafat repeatedly did, “inexplicably” reneged on the deal and careered off to the United Nation’s Security Council to seek a unilateral declaration of nationhood. This resulted in Obama’s United States being furious at this betrayal. Jeff Rathke of the US State Department responded, “This escalatory step will not achieve any of the outcomes the Palestinians hoped to see for their people”. The action was charitably called “counterproductive”.
The “State” of Palestine, divided between independent Gaza controlled by Iran’s Hamas and the West Bank occupied by Israel but with Abbas at its head, has had no coherent integrated policy other than their non recognition of Israel as a state. Abbas although the nominal ruler of Gaza has had no contact or visits for years to that territory and only has a tenuous hold over the West Bank not having risked an election for almost a decade. Abbas’s ludicrous bid for acceptance of statehood in these circumstances, in spite of support of a whole host of, at kindest, naive countries, is meaningless in reality and ended in an ignominious defeat largely as a result of the United States diplomatic efforts. (A fact bleated all over the Israeli press by Avigdor Liebermann the ultra right wing Minister of Foreign Affairs. Finally, it is sinking in that Obama is not their enemy just because he cannot tolerate the manipulative Netanyahu).
The leadership of Hamas condemned Abbas for this move as a total sell out! Hamas’s other criticisms of Abbas were even more broadly based. The Head of Hamas in Gaza, Ismael Haniyeh accused Abbas’s Fatah of not effecting the reconstruction of Gaza for which he had received the money. The anger of Hamas resulted in bombing of Fatah’s property in Gaza. Yet several nations, who should know better, backed this freak show.
Even in the most unlikely outcome that Palestine is granted statehood what does Abbas do next? Or does he expect Israel to roll over and agree with him that Israel should not be recognized and do his and Hamas’s bidding that the nearly eight million Jews should pack up and go to other countries. Maybe the other countries that are exhibiting such enthusiasm for a chaotic independent Palestine will welcome the eight million Israelis in to their midst - that is if their Muslim minorities will let them. They then will have to send in planes or troops as ISIS fills the power vacuum created by the Israelis departure.
DESPERATE ABBAS GOES TO INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT OF JUSTICE
With the unexpected outcome of the African representatives not voting for Palestinian statehood, the desperate Abbas moved to the International Criminal Court of Justice, (ICC), at the Hague. This is another exercise in futility as the wheels of justice move slowly at the best of times. His locus standii to lay charges will immediately be under challenge because as the rules stand you can only bring issues to the court that have occurred once a membership had been granted. Also the Court is only mandated to proceed if the defendant country’s judicial system had not addressed the possibility of war crimes. In fact Israel has a vast infrastructure to investigate possible crimes of war which began its work immediately after the ceasefire in the recent conflict. Needless to say Palestine has no legal review system as war crimes are their official policy.
And that is just the beginning as the court is only directed to hear cases of “Unimaginable Atrocities”. Thus to date it has taken up only cases that involved tens or hundreds of thousands of deaths. So even if the Prosecutors accept that there is probable cause for the1,500 deaths in Gaza, in that they were as a result of war crimes, this “crime” should be of lower priority on the Court’s schedule than, for example, Assad’s 175,000 civilian deaths last year which apparently is not even on the Hague Court’s radar screen.
Then should the litigation proceed Abbas will have to face very credible counter claims that he is guilty of crimes against humanity in relation to Hamas’s activities of firing indiscriminately on civilians and using women and children as human shields. The prosecutorial staff at the Hague legally should give this all a miss as this litigation requires legal fact not propaganda. Their recent protracted attempt to convict the President of Kenya on war crimes, with far more probable cause than exists with the rhetoric related to Israel, came embarrassingly unstuck.
So Abbas’s move is counterproductive to say the least. Even if he triumphed it would take a long long time. Meantime he will have brought great financial penalties on Palestine. Israel can inflict major financial pain and politically why shouldn’t they? Abbas has said in addition to this latest volte face that he will never accept an independent Israel. In addition the USA has finally called it quits and the $400 million that they sling Abbas’s way is in great jeopardy. Abbas’s standing on the West bank has plummeted. In a recent survey from the independent Palestinian run Palestinian Center for Policy in Ramallah, he only gained a thirty -five percent approval rating. What the 8 members of the Security Council could have been thinking when they attempted to pass nationhood onto a leader that hasn’t had an election for ten years and has no control over the territories he supposedly governs, only they know.
ISRAEL’S CURRENT REALITY AND IT’S RESPONSIBILITY.
Israel over the last few decades has gradually drifted more and more to the right. It could be argued that this has been in response to the never ending attacks on it by Hamas and a growing disillusionment that peace is an illusion. However central that reality there is more to it than that. There has been a hijacking of the Israeli policies of tolerance and democracy by two minorities supported by various waves of immigrants that were never part of the original Zionistic establishment of Israel. The settlers and the messianic religious, representing a tiny portion of the citizenry, are now dominating the political process and have driven Bibi Netanyahu even further and further to the right. Before going into the current political breakdown in Israel, prior to a turning point election in March 2015, it would be salutary to restate the 1948 Israeli Charter. (It is important to note that there was consensus on this between Labour’s Ben Gurion and Likud’s Begin):
“The State would be founded on freedom, justice and peace as envisaged by the prophets of Israel; it will ensure complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants irrespective of religion, race and sex”.
“….. in the very midst of onslaught against us for months….. the State of Israel is prepared to cooperate with the agencies and representatives of the United Nations in implementing the resolution of the General Assembly of 29th of November 1947…..” The plan called for a two State division of the territories and was rejected then by the Arab Governments who rejected any form of territorial separation.
So there is a commitment to full rights for all in Israel and a two State solution - a commitment which has only recently been seriously challenged within Israel.
THE CHANGES IN ISRAEL’S BODY POLITIC
Whatever else can be said about the half century acrimonious spilt between Likud and Labour they stuck to their word and there was a succession of Prime Ministers, from both sides of the aisle, dutifully adhering to their covenant. The last of these statesmen coming from that great tradition was Ariel Sharon, although he morphed into the Kadima Party from Likud, the sense of the doing what was right in a sea of wrong had to be upheld, finally, even by him. In case one has forgotten the most powerful claim the Israelis have is that they are the arbiters of public morality in a region that has no respect for human rights and the rule of law.
Settlements.
No single issue has raised the ire of the international community more than the creation of settlements by the Israelis. While there have been settlements off and on since the Six Day War in 1967 many of these have since disbanded. Some of the settlements as explained by Rabin, following the Oslo Accords could never be ceded as they were crucial for security. However the fact that Israel did not hang onto the Sinai and Gaza for example having abandoned the former as part of negotiations and the latter unilaterally allowed the issue to simmer till Netanyahu took the reins. Netanyahu’s plan for an increase in settlements was publicly leaked by Haaretz in 2011 where he would increase settlements particularly on the West Bank. How much Netanyahu is responding to political pressure in the implementation of this program will become evident in the next few years if he still hangs onto power which to date seems to be his central political objective.
Israel by proceeding in this manner besides attracting world wide and internal opprobrium have gone back on their word and have lost much of their propaganda argument that their promise and theirs alone can be trusted. The argument that they are behaving like an imperialist colonial power is difficult to refute under the current settler policy.
Internal Policy
Israel has prided itself on its vigorous democracy. Over the past decade or so their proud boast that they treat the Arab Palestinians like any other citizen has taken a hit. Lead by Avigdor Liebermann who screams “No citizenship without loyalty” which is unashamed code for deporting the Arabs who like a distinct section of Jewish Israelis do not support the Settler program nor how “Operation Protective Edge” was executed. The Israeli Center for Arab Minority Rights has documented that there are 50 discriminatory laws on the books in every domain of life in Israel from citizenry to land allocation. Also there has been legislation introduced that will not allow foreign money into the country for human rights groups all adding to the narrative that Israel is no longer prioritizing democracy. The most recent move to remove the word “democratic” in the definition of the State of Israel calling it only a Jewish State has raised the ire of those who again interpret this as a move away from the 1948 Charter.
Obviously the dominant policy in Israel is still equality, but should the Liebermanns of this world hijack the culture of Israel that has allowed it to thrive and survive, thereby turning it into a nationalist state that discriminates against those who disagree with them, this will no longer be so.
CURRENT SITUATION.
This brings us to the current political crossroads with the election on March 17, 2015. There is little doubt that the right have been strengthened by Abbas’s moves. A rejuvenated Netanyahu, who was reelected Leader of Likud with 80 percent of the votes, immediately grandstanded that he would not allow members of the Israeli Defense Force to be dragged before the Hague, knowing full well that they only drag “the decision makers” before the ICC.
As things stand it is hard to see a government without Netanyahu.There are a 120 seats in the Knesset and at the moment no party has more than 19 making a cobbled together coalition the only possibility. Israeli politics are incredibly mobile. Parties in Israel coalesce at the drop of a hat and others go off the map in a jiffy. Sharon’s Kadimah had 29 seats in 2006 and only 2 in 2013. Likewise politicians change often and Livni who was Kadimah’s head in 2009 is now head of Hatnuah.
The new Zionists represent to a large extent the influential minorities of the messianic right and the pro settlement constituencies. Their main parties are the religious party, The Jewish Home, with about 12 Knesset members and the Settler Party - Avigdor Libermann’s, Yisrael Beitenui with a similar number. The latter still nominally support a two state solution and are largely made of Russian immigrants that hardly know a tradition of democracy. Likud which is the former right wing party is headed by Netanyahu and has 19 seats. These three parties could form a powerful nidus for another right wing government.
The Religious Ashkenazi Jews are represented by United Torah Judaism and the Religious Sephardis by Shas. Both occupy six seats in the outgoing Knesset. Ironically the traditional religious parties have not got the same dogged commitment to Messianism as Bennett’s Jewish Home. Shas last time round was affiliated with Labour. Yair Lapid is head of Yesh Atid that sees itself as the middle of the road secular party had 19 seats in the current Knesset but was a solid partner in Netanyahu’s coalition.
The Labor Party under Herzog has 15 and Livni’s Hatnuah has 6 while the Arab parties have 11.
Already the polls see different numbers and who knows how the cookie will crumble. The cognoscenti are seeing a fight between Herzog/Livni and Netanyahu. They are both predicted to get 24 seats. The unlikely coalition of Labour and Hatnuah has sparked much speculation and interest as they are said to be the inheritors of the old Likud and Labour parties that have come together. The question is how Herzog/Livni could get to 61.The left are telling the Arab group that the time has come to align themselves heavily in a battle of this nature.
Another variable is how the corruption scandals will impact Liebermann and his party. Shas too are in flux as there is a major rift between factions after the death of their leader. The report that Netanyahu, who must be favorite to serve a fourth term as Prime Minister, accepted the US peace plan and was prepared to freeze settlements may or may not mean he is ready to join the long line of statesmen Israel has produced over the years.
Jay H. Ell is not going to begin to go into reading trends in the Israeli elections. What he does know that Israel stands for values that have allowed it to survive. On the one hand it faces discrimination from countries and institutions that should know better and on the other it is staring at an even greater internal threat to its very raison d’être. What good is it to survive by degenerating to the behavior of the lowest common denominator around you? Do the messianic who support the settlers in their supposed G-D given mission forget that the Torah tells them to love the stranger as “You too were strangers in Egypt”. Finally, spare a thought for those “strangers” whose leaders force Israel to blow up their residences, schools and mosques. Somehow one needs to find a way to get to them and help resolve their hell like existence and at the same time remove the day to day shadow of violence that the modern day Israel has lived under since its tumultuous inception.
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