THE FALLOUT FROM OBAMA’S IMMIGRATION ORDER

As might have been predicted the Republicans have gone bonkers over Obama’s executive decision on immigration. (Blog: "Obama Guns Blazing -Faces GOP Fire"). It would be instructive to examine why their outcry has reached hysterical levels. It is not as if his edict came out of the blue. The POTUS has telegraphed his thinking on the subject since way back. It is almost two years since the Senate passed a far more comprehensive bipartisan Bill on immigration than his Executive Action encompasses. Boehner, Leader of the GOP in the House of Representatives, first reassured the Commander in Chief that he would bring it to the floor and then reneged because, at the end of the day, he had resistance from the Tea party wing of his caucus. 

As the years passed and with the 2014 election of even more Tea Party members to the House there was no way the GOP were going to act. This is coupled with the fact that McConnell, GOP leader in the Senate, has openly maintained along that the GOP agenda is just to block or eliminate Obama. The fact too that the GOP have done nothing to advance Government rather foreclosing it and refusing to finance its day to day activities adds to the reality that nothing was about to come from the GOP. And nothing did. So Obama took the plunge.

There isn’t a constitutional lawyer of any standing that has maintained that Obama hasn’t the legal right to do what he has done and there are political precedents up the ying yang for this decision. So the legal challenges to it won’t happen but the political ones will - in spades.

GOP RESPONSE

The GOP maintained that the POTUS had poisoned the well for future cooperation. This statement is farcical in relation to the facts as outlined above. The Republicans simply have done zilch on policy including immigration, as it would split the Party. In fact their policy was that Obama was beyond the pale and now they are wailing that it his action that is peventing cooperation! There is absolutely naught to make any rational being believe that the GOP were about to cooperate with the Executive. (Other than their familar meaningless protestations that bipartisanship is what they are up for). Even less so now that they control both Chambers of the legislature. However, what Obama has given them is a “justification” to carry on running against him. It worked in the 2014 midterm elections so why cannot it be a tactic forever? 

So, once again, with feeling, all the negativity will ensue. Litigation against Obama has already been initiated. Ridiculously, Boehner aimed the latter against Obama’s execution of the Affordable Care Act rather than the Immigration order, but litigation it is - so wah. Two GOP State Attorney Generals are going to go to Court with the argument that Obama is interfering with their State’s rights to control immigration - that too is likely to go nowhere. McConnell and Boehner will do what they do best - threaten Government shutdown, deny finance for the day to day running of Government and generally advance nothing legislatively. The loons will call for impeachment and the party will rant on forever. Already Ted Cruz is staking his claim to action - no ratification of any of Obama’s nominees to the administration. Childish in the extreme, he is going to punish the country by preventing the government to function but this action is a logical sequitor of the crazy strategy that the GOP has used for years now.

At its most positive the GOP will attack the process of the new disposition rather than its content. But in terms of the electoral consciousness that is game playing that will only resonate well with the home base. The legislation they may promote could be focussed to bone up border security. The border per se is less and less relevant in the immigration saga and it just won’t play in Peoria anymore.

At the end of the day the GOP is still delaying the showdown with their radical Tea Party. The longer they do so the more difficult it becomes. It is so much easier to remain in their comfort zone of attacking Obama and in the Presidential election of 2016 to attack whoever is the Democratic candidate as running for Obama’s third term. It will motivate their base but who else?

LATINO RESPONSE

The Latinos are ecstatic. This vulnerable group finally see some light at the end of the tunnel. Obama gave them the first glimpse when he lifted the specter of deportation on a million persons that had been brought to the USA as children and knew no other home. He has now relieved the daily horror for families, whose children are American citizens or have green cards, in that they may apply for temporary residency if they have resided in the US for five years. To show how broken the system is there are four million such souls who have been in the country for over five years. Another million are also temporarily pardoned. 

The Latino leadership are aware that there will be no going back. This has to be the beginning of a more comprehensive policy for the approximately eleven million illegal immigrants in the USA. On a more practical level the Latinos, who represent 10% of the electorate will be back in full force for the Democrats. The Latinos are more organized than ever before with action groups and committees and they will be registering voters and organizing to bring out the vote. In 2004 George W. Bush won 43% of their vote. Romney won 29% against Obama and guess what percentage will vote for the GOP candidate in 2016? 

The only hope for the GOP will be a Jed Bush candidacy. He is married to a Latino and hablos Spanish. Jed resonates with that community. However, he cannot shout the odds too much as he needs the base to get the nomination. Romney too had extensive credentials with the South American group. His father George was born in Mexico as he was part of a Mormon mission at the time. It all helped like a hole in the head. Firstly Romney had to play it down in the Primaries and it was too late to start in the election itself. Also Jed’s problem is his last name is Bush and it was his brother that was the spur for the formation of the Tea Party. Perhaps he should listen to his mother and but out. (Blog: "What Barbara's Enough Bushes Means").

So all things being equal Obama has given the 2016 Democratic Presidential Candidate a massive boost and the GOP had to have expected it.

THE DEMOCRATS RESPONSE

The Democrat woeses who dumped Obama in 2014 have been proved wrong. ("Blog: 2014: The Smoke and Mirrors Election"). They bought into the mantra that he was the problem. Now they have to unlearn the obvious. You run on what you believe otherwise you cannot even motivate your base. In the next two years they better re own the President otherwise they will be once again sitting with a Democratic President and legislative GOP.

The Democrats need to rally round Hillary. Hillary needs to stop being the reluctant virgin and step into the arena. She also needs to define her agenda and risk loosing some votes. The country needs leadership. Not that it is not getting it from Obama but leadership that can get votes in Congress. Hillary needs to pick Elizabeth Warren as her running mate to avoid the same old same old “politics as usual”label. (She won’t of course). But even more important she must espouse an agenda that is populist. The country has made itself clear on a host of issues that include closing the gap on wealth inequity and how about legislation to nullify Citizens United? This is not just about winning but moving this country forward and getting the politics to work as they are  supposed to. There is no better qualified candidate than her and she brings meaning to the word “twofer” with Bill. If one analyses his success it was a mixture of leadership and compromise on what was valid and reasonable.  

In this political madhouse. that has resulted in a cynicism that can only get a third of the electorate to the polls, openess is needed. Where politics has become a swearword, “We the People” need to feel that the “We” are relevant and not just voting fodder for the special interests and corporations. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

So the GOP purge yourself and rejoin the Universe. Dems need to stop playing safely and offer a clear agenda for the twenty - first century. One doesn’t need a pussy footy alternative from those who haven’t the guts to support the policies of their leader that they actually agree with.