In this blog Jay H. Ell examines the impact that the GOP midterm election victory will have on USA politics. He believes that the outcome will be positive for the American political debate in that it will crack open the brittle coalition between the Tea Party and the Republican establishment. This will have positive outcomes for the Republican as well as the Democratic Parties and the country as a whole. However there is one issue that can throw this whole analysis awry. If Obama negotiates a nuclear settlement with Iran that is unfavorable to Israel all bets are off.
OBAMA, IRAN AND ISRAEL
So there is just one word of caution to Obama. The date, November 24, for the Iranian nuclear deal is coming up. If Obama sells Israel out he is in for big trouble. That is the one agenda item that will get a veto proof consensus in Congress and will change the political dynamic totally against Obama. Jay H. Ell has blogged before that if the final accord looks as if he is throwing Israel to the wolves this will be a game changer. (Blog: “Netanyahu and Maybe Obama Too - Just Don’t Get It”). The POTUS seems to be obsessed with making peace with Iran in spite of the fact that they are totally untrustworthy, have conceded nothing and are purveyors of terror. Furthermore, the Washington based Institute for Science and International Security has alleged that Iran violated the interim agreement they made with the US and other international powers by developing a machine that could speed up uranium enrichment. In addition the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a report on November 7, 2014, stating that Iran have increased their enriched uranium supply by 8% since September.
Obama, according to the Wall Street Journal, sent a letter to the Ayatollah Khomeini that is indicative of a naivety more in tune with the euphoria surrounding him just after being elected in 2008. On its face why would Khomeini agree to giving Obama what he wants for nothing in return? To quote the Business Insider, “Obama would not be the first American President to delude himself that he can overcome international conflicts through the force of his own charisma”. Obama’s former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, has argued that Obama is naive when it comes to foreign policy.
Ironically, the self same Ayatollah Khomeini, this weekend, using his twitter account, outlined his methodology to effect the following, “This barbaric, wolflike and infanticidal regime of #Israel which spares no crime, has no cure but to be annihilated” He included tweets suggesting the arming of the West Bank, giving as reason that “The fake Zionist regime has tried to realize its goals by means of violence, infanticide, homicide and an iron fist”. To effect the “final solution” for Israel the Ayatollah produced a table with nine steps. For whatever reasons, the Ayatollah does not think this objective necessarily means the massacre of the Jewish people in the region.
Just to get on the same page as these arbiters of international morality it would be salutary to take note of their edict on the ownership of dogs, issued last week. Those who continue to keep these pets will receive 74 lashes and be subject to heavy fines. Dogs are apparently unclean animals under Islamic custom. Those walking their dogs would be arrested by the morality police who also are on the watch out for women showing too much ankle and forehead. The dogs would be confiscated.
So it has been a bad week for Jews, dogs and their owners in Iran.
Where the rubber hits the road in relation to Iran is the outcome of the negotiations on Iranian nuclear weapons. Even though several of Netanyahu’s security brass believe he is over rating the Iranian threat, the fact remains that allowing the regime, that just this weekend outlined its curriculum for the “annihilation” of Israel, the potential of a nuclear arsenal is to say the least is a slap in the face of the USA’s traditional ally Israel and will create fury amongst the Gulf States and Egypt. Iran gaining a nuclear weapon capability would trigger a rush by the Sunni and secular Arab nations to follow suit. Obama needs to get his priorities straight and ignore Netanyahu’s provocative behavior and reaffirm USA’s traditional support of its only real ally in the Middle East. Support for Israel is about the only subject that would glide through the USA Congress and Jay H. Ell’s gut feeling is the GOP will move quickly, if the Dems don’t beat them to it, on a resolution to get Congress to review the Iranian nuclear deal whatever it is.
One has to assume that Obama will not go there and this will be another one of his foreign policy dreams that go up in smoke. Obama, who is in China at present, commented that the Iranian nuclear deal was no where close and Biden addressing the Jewish American Federations reassured that he and Bibi were the best of friends and that Israel had no other friend like the USA. He also ran cover for Obama reflecting that the leader had met no world leader as often as Netanyahu.
So then what do the midterm election results foretell for American politics?
THE GRAND OLD PARTY IS OVER BEFORE IT STARTS
Mitch McConnell made all the right moves about cooperation on the eve of being elected to be being Senate Majority Leader. President Obama invited all the leaders to lunch but was more than a bit in your face. The fact that McConnell’s six year position was objectionable and strident non cooperation must have made this opportunistic move by him stick in Obama’s crawl. In addition having waited around for more than a few years for Boehner to deliver on his promise for an Immigration Reform Bill, Obama unceremoniously informed the, ostensibly changed, GOP that he would wait till the end of the year for Immigration legislation and failing that he would go ahead on his own.
There is a belief, mistaken, Jay H. Ell believes, that this was all up to Obama now that the GOP have finally seen the light. Pundits refer back to Tip O’ Neal and Ronald Reagan, Newt Gingrich and Bill Clinton cooperation as precedents. But that was a different world. In those days the branches of government operated in terms of the paradigm of the Founding Fathers. Can the Republicans change after six years being totally nihilistic, shutting government, voting repeatedly to reverse entrenched legislation and filibustering forever? The assumption too is that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid would just roll over and clear the way to prove that the Republicans can govern and the Dems could not. Even assuming that the latter two Democratic leaders, in the interests of the memory of the Founding Fathers, did just that Jay H. Ell still cannot see this ending in kumbayah. Neither can the electorate. In a Rasmussen Poll fifty - nine percent of those polled believed that the Republicans will “disappoint”. By that they mean there will still be gridlock in Washington.
WHY NO KUMBAYAH
It did not take long for Boehner to really fly off the handle after Obama threatened unilateral action on Immigration if the new retreaded GOP did not produce the goods. It is difficult to know what he expected. Obama was saying nothing new in fact some might argue that he was being conciliatory waiting till the end of the year. Mitch nearly cried pleading that it was unfair. For G-d’s sake, how could Obama expect cooperation under threat! Mitch more than anyone else knows that all Obama has to do, is to take a leaf out of the GOP playbook, and do nothing. Then in 2016 you can say, “Look the GOP did nothing, vote for us!”
However it is deeper than that. There are four factors that make it impossible for the GOP to sit down and compromise. As E. J. Dione of the Washington Post asserts it is in their DNA to attack Obama and they know nothing else. Then Obama epitomizes every philosophy that is an antithesis to the GOP mantra of free market trade, individualism and disbelief in social welfare. Thirdly, some are of the opinion that the 1000 pound gorilla in the room is the color of Obama’s skin as articulated by Bill O’Reilly of Fox news - “This used to be a white man’s country”. Finally, the one most powerful driver of this approach, Jay H. Ell believes, is that Obama disdain is the only issue the deeply divided GOP are id idem on. This has sustained them for six years.
Jay H. Ell has blogged from way back on this deep division in their politics that has arisen since the inception of the Tea Party in 2012 post George W. Bush, (43). (Blogs: “America at the Crossroads” and “The Republican Party is Dead”). Since then the Tea Party has gelled into a very powerful entity operating under the umbrella of the GOP. One of their leaders is Senator Ted Cruz who is accepted as such by House Tea Party Members. (Blogs: “Ted Cruz’s Crusade”,“Update: Ted Cruz’s Coup D’etat” and “GOP Fight - The Gloves Are Off”). In fact it was he who organized the House Tea Party caucus against Boehner initiatives, again and again, kyboshing any hope of a House motion on Immigration reform. Cruz was responsible for shutting down Government and does not regret it for one moment and for a monumental filibuster. With regard to Obama’s threat to unilaterally, by Executive Action, address Immigration Reform, Cruz has written to Harry Reid telling him to stop the Commander in Chief because if he doesn’t Cruz has a thinly veiled threat to introduce impeachment proceedings against Obama. That is last thing that the GOP need as it will be perceived to be proof positive that they have no intention of doing anything other than carry on their vendetta against Obama.
A POSSIBLE DRAFT MOTION ON IMMIGRATION BY BOEHNER AND MCCONNELL?
Let us look at what might happen if the GOP wanted to present a motion on immigration reform to the Democrats and Obama. There first order of business would be to get it through the caucuses of the GOP in the House and the Senate. Let us start with the House - Boehner has two choices. He has to decide whether he is serious about consensus and getting a resolution Obama might sign or is he more vested in keeping the illusion of Party unity. Ted Cruz has decided opinions on immigration reform and the new House has more Tea Party supporters than the last. Boehner has already signaled which way he is going to go. After Obama announced he would go it alone if there was no resolution Boehner attacked the President and said he was “Poisoning the well”.
For argument sake, imagine that Boehner gets a watered down resolution on immigration through his House of Representative GOP caucus in order to kick the can down the road. It could read increase border security and set up a commission to investigate, with the Latinos, a mechanism whereby immigration reform can be implemented. By so doing he could argue that they were setting the ball into motion and getting Latino input and he would mollify the right with his “border security” thing. Well for one Nancy Pelosi would get the team to vote against it, Harry Reid would filibuster it in the Senate and in the exceedingly unlikely event it would get to Obama’s desk, he would veto it.
Obama has nothing to lose by going ahead. Immigration reform, like most of his initiatives has popular support. Most important it has Latino support. He needs to put all those voters back in the Democratic column as soon as possible. Unlike the midterm there are several states where the Latino vote is going to be crucial in 2016.
So Obama by putting the immigration issue on fast track is going to force the GOP hand very early on in the game - even before the class of 2015 get into Congress.
WHITHER THE GOP
Assuming Jay H. Ell is correct and the outcome of the great togetherness suffers a mortal blow before the end of the year what is the GOP game plan now? Cruz can say, “I told you so”. The rant is obvious, “Carry on attacking Obama”. But where is that going to get them? The unsophisticated electorate are only interested in results and at least Obama is giving them some.
Sooner or later the GOP establishment have to fish or cut bait. Winning the midterms has sped up that process. It is ridiculous to believe that the Dems and the President are going to bail them out. Of course the Dems will go through the motions of cooperation but they need not fear that the GOP, as matters stand, are going to present them with a bill that they simply have to support. If they do then you can bet the Tea Party will be voting against it and if that happens there will finally be a de facto parting of the ways.
The GOP has to come to terms with the reality that it is never a good time to bring this sordid internecine struggle to a head, what with elections every two years. The longer they wait the worse it will get. It is time to bring the great American debate back to sanity. If the Tea Party are forced to go it alone they will fade into the shadows of history. It is up to the GOP establishment to decide if they want to go with them.
Realistically however the odds are on the GOP establishment carrying on and just hoping the Tea Party will go away. In all probability the GOP will do nothing about immigration and Obama will act. They then will attack Obama for acting unilaterally and the narrative will be the same old same old - attack Obama.They then will have to go into 2016 and hope against hope that they can win a national election with no policy and tarring everyone with the Obama brush.
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