At the moment there are two disconnected processes taking place in the Middle East. On the one hand there is the chaos arising out of the Syrian Iraqi quagmire and the surfacing of the nightmarish Jihardi Islamic State, (IS or ISIS), and on the other there is a realignment of Arab States with Israel, accompanied by some paradigm changing enterprises. The latter has been overshadowed by the IS crisis. Obama’s move to make the key Middle East problem the elimination of IS has relegated the Israeli - Palestinian "problem" to the back burner.
THE LUNATIC ASYLUM
The Arab and Muslim world plus Israel, loosely interchangeably known as the Middle East, is in sheer and utter chaos. In the not so distant past the simplistic narrative, whether verbalized or not, was - “If only the Israeli - Palestinian “problem” could be resolved all the rest of the Middle East would be mollified and they would stop hating the Americans and the West, who either overtly or covertly back Israel”. Some were less subtle than others being openly irritated with Israel for not just meeting Palestinian demands and letting everyone live happily ever after.
Then along came the Arab Spring which has since turned into an Arab winter. Iran also became a major threat as the theocracy demanded its democratic right to produce a nuclear weapon. Then there were problems everywhere in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Lebanon, Egypt, Libya, Sudan and Yemen with players such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia getting more and more involved in the action. One hardly knows where to begin it is all such a shambles…….
DEGRADATION AND DESTRUCTION OF IS -THE NEW MIDDLE EAST POLICY
So let’s begin with the latest simplistic analysis and work backwards. The current focus is on IS or ISIS the latest collection of crazies to emerge from that cauldron of insanity. If one would have written a smear on the Islamic fundamentalists and called it “The Protocols of Islam” and just chronicled what IS is now enacting one would have been driven out of town as being Islamophobic. However, it is for real and they are proud of it too! Their behavior is trotted out on the internet by themselves for all to see. - pure unadulterated totalitarianism, barbarism, rape, enslavement of women, ethnic cleansing of minorities especially Christians, child exploitation and primitive Sharia law with whippings, and executions for the “unbelievers”, all with children in attendance. Their piece de resistance is periodic beheadings of Westerners. What is more this crowd are growing stronger and stronger by the day and are said to have 30,000 fighters. They have sequestered huge chunks of land in Syria and Iraq. IS controls towns and has set up administrations. So all the other complex affairs of the Middle East have been swept under the carpet in favor of the degradation and destruction of IS.
WHY ISIS?
It is fair to interpret that Obama’s policy was to stay out of the Middle East as far as possible - other than to resolve the Israel and Palestine “problem” of course and more lately to prevent Iran from going nuclear. Congress and the USA population were ad idem. They didn’t even want him bombing Syria. However, when ISIS became a reality Obama weakened and started moving back into the Middle East arena. (Blog: Iraq: Obama Won’t You Please Stay Home - 6/19/14). So what allowed and even forced Obama to go ahead and change direction to degrade and destroy ISIS? What compelled Obama suddenly to realize it was in the USA’s national interest to take on the heinous ISIS? Everyone is agreed that it was the hideous videos of ISIS beheading two American journalists. (One can predict that Cameron's attitude to IS will change dramatically now that a UK citizen has suffered a similar fate).
So when “It comes down to reality” to quote Billy Joel, what triggered the USA into ISIS was the beheadings.
Thus in the final analysis this is the beginning of the declaration of war between two cultures - one of life and the other of death.
Of course the US rationalizations followed for the change in policy - this is not a “feel good” or “national ideal” exercise, the reason for the policy is “national Interest”; there is a need to protect American citizens in the area; IS threatens the stability of the whole Middle East, thereby becoming a danger to the USA; and sooner or later they will become international terrorists so there is a need to wipe them out now! (Another unspoken rationale is they don’t need IS controlling too much oil).
Not terribly convincing arguments as why to go to war again to say the least but let us carry on.
Coalitions against ISIS
In effect there are three coalitions "against" ISIS. The whole of the West and the rest of the Middle East are against the barbarians for differing reasons. Then Obama has put together a “feel good” coalition of Western Countries and certain Middle Eastern countries, none of whom, will have “boots on the ground” but will provide, to varying degrees, material and other support. Then there has to be a third coalition, yet to be announced, of those who will put “boots on the ground.”
How IS can be degraded and destroyed with “no boots on the ground” and who and what the boots partners are and are going to do the necessary is still uncertain. The USA with the firepower and drones and the like will cause IS distress there is no doubt. However, the “Homeland’s” attempts to execute similar ventures in the recent past have taken battalions of boots and numbers of years with, to put it kindly, mixed success. Part of the current mess is thanks to George W and Cheney and his neocons trying to do whatever they were attempting to do in Iraq and all after all those USA efforts in Afghanistan the latter is still corrupt and unstable although the Taliban don’t run it for the moment.
Whose Boots?
Then who the partners who are going to have boots on the ground is a mystery. The obvious candidate, the Iraqi army, thanks to Bush is totally dysfunctional. He dismantled the army, and a 1000 Obama American advisors are not going to improve their prospects in a hurry. (The Iraqi Defense Force retreat from Mosul leaving their heavy uniforms and American tax payer paid for munitions show just how far they have to go to become battle ready).The Kurds are a fighting force but no match for this crowd. Iran can deliver but we can hardly kiss and make up with them in the midst an economic boycott and don’t forget they are central to much of the Middle East shambles. They support Assad, Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran really philosophically would like a Caliphate but their Shia Caliphate and not one that opposes their Assad. There are no other contenders who are inclined to send ground troops. So sadly Obama’s approach is not going to make the real problems in the Middle East go away and if anything have just muddied the waters even further.
However, finally Obama has found an issue to unite with Congress and they are all backing him to the hilt with relatively few ifs and buts.
THE NEW UNITED MIDDLE EAST?
Obama’s move has made a new united Middle East. All of a sudden the dynamic has changed. The whole Middle East including El Qaeda, and even Syria is on the same side. Even Saudi Arabia is ostensibly Iran’s newest best friend. However, this coalition as well as the more formal Obama “feel good” group can only offer what America is already providing - munitions, money and cheerleading. Obama still mistakenly believes that with the new Iraqi government the country will become unified so they can stop their own virtual civil war and their army can then concentrate on IS. Iran is really the only force on the ground with boots that realistically can take on IS - as Churchill might have said, “Our noble allies the Russians I mean the Iranians” will wipe them out.
It is obvious that a “boots coalition” doesn’t exist and if anything this whole exercise can be detrimental to American interests. Just citing one example how tough is Obama going to be on Iran’s abrogations of nuclear policy if indeed they wipe out IS? Also one can be sure that if Iran does fight IS it will be in tandem with bolstering Assad, Hezbollah and Hamas.
A GLIMMER OF SANITY?
But wait while all this is going on Israel’s Middle East anti - Jihardi coalition is showing some movement even though the Israeli - Palestinian madness continues of its own momentum.
Hamas
Hamas is defiantly rebuilding their tunnels with tours available on U- Tube. They have not denied that their policy was to run up as many civilian deaths as possible and are rearming while demanding the right to be rebuilt so that they can start firing rockets at Israel again and have more civilian deaths and have all the buildings where their fighters with their armaments and where women and children hang out once again reduced to a pile of death and rubble.
But even here there is glimmer of light. A Chief Hamas official, Abu Marzouk, says that there is nothing wrong with negotiating with Israel. He states that Hamas may be forced to follow this path as the population of Gaza demands this. Marzouk maintained that this would become a reality if Abbas fails to address the Gaza situation. This resulted in a sharp rebuke by Abbas’s Fatah calling such a move “treason”.
Arab Countries Paradigm Shifts
The most significant break in the logjam is in the Arab Muslim world as the non jihadist Sunnis separate themselves from the Sunni and Shia Jihadists. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and UAE are firmly on Israel’s side against Hamas. All of these countries see no merit in this counterproductive destructive lunacy that at the end of the day achieves nothing. It is important to accentuate that this happenstance did not occur in a vacuum and is the pay off for decades of good faith efforts by leaders such as Rabin, Peres, Begin, Ohlmert, Barak and Sharon. The message may not have gotten through to the Palestinian leader Jihadists but has permeated through to the environment around them. Now none of the countries Israel is involved with are models of democracy and or tolerance but this pragmatic attitude is a great start.
Jordan has just done a paradigm shattering $15 billion energy deal with Israel. Israel can well be the economic and resource engine that fuels a new Middle East. From all accounts Egypt have made an earthquaking move offering to give Gaza a chunk of land four times its size. Caroline Glick of the Jerusalem Post discusses the significance of this move in detail and indicates why this offer, that has since been denied following Abbas’s public refusal of it, was most likely a genuine effort to break the deadlock. Abbas as Jay H. Ell has blogged is part of the old school of a one State solution - Palestine and until then chaos.
Surreal Israel
Meanwhile back in Israel they are holding hearings to access whether there were any abrogations of policy in some of the civilian deaths in the Gaza incursion with a view to disciplinary action for those IDF members who violated policy. The Chief Military Prosecutor has opened criminal investigations into 5 cases including the incident where four Palestinian teenagers were killed on a beach and the bombing of an UNRWA facility where 14 Palestinians succumbed. All in all, according to the Jerusalem Post, Military Advocate - General, Major General, Dani Efroni has opened investigations into a 105 different episodes. (This civilized behavior is surreal in this madhouse). Israel is also building more security systems that will eliminate even more risk of fatalities when Hamas strikes up the band again. This suits Hamas as they play on the differential between Israeli civilian deaths that they are targeting and Palestinian civilian deaths that Israel are trying to avoid.
There also appears to be a mood in Israel that is sick of this all. The feeling is that there has to be some accommodation. While the extremists they are opposing are amoral there has to be a majority of Palestinian parents who love their children as much as the Israelis love theirs. Netanyahu’s ratings have dropped from 82% from during the fighting to 38% now that it is over. The Israeli media was awash with the decision of 43 Intelligence officers who refused to continue in the processing of information in the WestBank as a result of the IDF’s methods of obtaining material there.
In general no-one is giving up the right to defend oneself but there has to be some thinking outside of the box.
AT THE END OF THE DAY.
“If my analysis of the position is right at the end of the tunnel there is a glimmer of light”
- Joseph and His Amazing Technicolor Dream Coat
* The Middle East is in the process of splitting. On the one hand there are those of the Gulf States including Qatar, with Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and Iraq who are the in Obama’s “feel good” coalition against ISIS. On the other there is the Syrian, Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah axis. ISIS is the real enemy of all and sundry and in the long run are not going to go anywhere unless they become an effective terrorist group acting outside of the Middle East.
* The Iran axis is the one Obama should be concentrating on instead of trying to get the Sunnis, Shia and Kurds to become one happy state in Iraq. Iraq is a failed state as a result of the Bush, Cheney et al criminal misadventure. Eliminating ISIS is not going to save Iraq.
* Israel is no longer alone in the Middle East and has allies in the key members of Obama’s “feel good” coalition.
* There appear to be openings in the 70 year old Palestinian Israeli dispute. These will be exploited by the new anti Iranian axis which includes Israel. The Egyptian Premier Sisi is in a strong position to broker a deal and he can do the obvious by giving a relatively tiny chunk of land to make Gaza viable. There is an apparent beginning of a split between Fatah and Hamas, who well may being pressured by Qatar. Qatar has a foot in both camps but are members of the anti Jihadist Sunni Gulf Cooperation where two of its members are already part of the Israeli axis. Hamas is more under the influence of Qatar at the moment than Iran. There is no way that Abbas could beat Hamas in any election so in the grand scheme of things he is more irrelevant than Netanyahu.The Palestinian population believe that Hamas won the last war so they have a ton of credibility. Maybe Hamas are pondering giving up playing games with Abbas, whose tactic is to go to the World Court to charge Israel with war crimes, and actually accommodate those they purport to represent.
* For all this to happen Netanyahu and Abbas have to go. They are relics of the past. Also there has to an incredible amount of backroom work which no doubt is going on as we speak.
* Hopefully, watch this space......
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