It is just over 2 months to the mid term elections and the media are barely featuring what is normally their staple diet of ongoing electioneering, campaigning, back room maneuvering, statecraft, scandals, blunders ,whose hat is in the ring and all other related issues. The interest in the political process has to be particularly low as the three major channels that were created largely to provide us with political news, 24/7, are awash with Ferguson, Gaza, IS, and now the Ukraine. Only the party machines, their moneyed backers and the bases of both parties are working feverishly to effect their outcome. The general public are generally disgusted and nauseated by the spectacle of the last few years where Congress has done virtually nothing. They are ambivalent at the fact that Obama has unilaterally done “something” buying into the narrative that this qualifies him for the status as an Imperial President. Congress has a seven percent approval rating, although the limited media attention ignores that, and focusses on the fact that the President’s approval rating is hovering in the forty percent level.
The consensus among the pundits is that the Republicans are going to make gains and even win the Senate. This although in the accompanying op- ed pieces the cognoscenti maintain that the outcome of the election “is to close to call”. As Jay H. Ell has blogged no- one has the vaguest clue as to how the cookie will crumble. While the polls show a tight race these are random polls not necessarily reflective of the very few that are going to actually vote.
WHY THE REPUBLICANS? - THE TECHNICALS AND THE TACTICS
Technicals
Believe or not, like the stock market, American elections have “technicals”. For example, in midterm elections the Party of the incumbent in the WhiteHouse traditionally looses seats. In Obama’s first term in the 2010 mid terms the Democrats lost seats in spades. The situation is said to worsen in the President’s second term. Then as an act of faith and part of the technicals it is the Republicans that are said to have the more involved and committed base. In the Senate twenty - one of the thirty - six contested seats are Democrat so according to the technicals the Democrats are at an even greater risk of losing seats.
Tactics
Jay H. Ell has blogged on the “tactics” as early as April this year - “Why The Republicans in 2014 - Its The Plutocrats, Obamacare and Voter Suppression - Stupid!”. These tactics pose a far greater threat to the Democrats then the technicals.
Money
With the public disenchantment with the whole bang shoot, the base is all that this election is about. To bring the base out is mainly a question of money. Full time party officers and offices, transport, fliers, tea parties, collection of absentee ballots, phone calls and the like need money and plenty of it. As our fourth estate has more important rating material to see to, adverts, particularly negative adverts assume a disproportionate importance in this otherwise non event to the general populace.
On the money tactic the GOP is outspending the Dems threefold. The Plutocrats, first and foremost the Koch Brothers then Karl Rove are donating and amassing vast war chests. Aided by the Supreme Court the sky is not even the limit. The latter interpreted that the Founding Fathers believed that while, “All men were created equal” and that “Freedom of Speech” was an inalienable right the wise old men must have intended that if you had more money you were entitled to more freedom of speech.
So if you have as much money as the Kochs you were entitled to have more free speech than half the citizenry of the country. The Kochs are not Johnny Come Lately’s to the table. Making the country permanently Republican has been a life time project and with $40 billion and connections with even more “free speech” they have come a long way. They are accredited with the fact, for example, that the Republicans won 750 State Offices from the Democrats and took control of several State legislatures. In this election the GOP can see their Party unravelling so the Kochs and the like are going all out to protect their investment.
Obama
Attacking Obamacare has morphed into excoriating Obama, (Blog: “Obama and the Lynch Mob”). This has been done with a vengeance. Obamacare itself has not turned the country upside down and those millions that have benefited are more than pleased. The Auditor General has maintained that it is decreasing the deficit so the attack has to be on Obama himself. The narrative is that the gridlock in Congress is Obama’s fault and it is exiting the Republican base more than it is irritating the Democratic one as law suits are filed against Obama and threats of impeachment are in the air. He is blamed for foreign policy, domestic chaos, lack of jobs and socialism for example with or without merit. So the GOP faithful hate Obama and the mantra is put him on the ballot and the Republican base will come out.
Voter suppression
According to the American Civil Liberties Union 30 States have introduced laws that have the effect of impeding a citizen’s right to vote. Reince Priebus, the Chairman of the Republican Party National Committee, was quite taken by the concept of voter restriction. Ostensibly the motivation for the new legislation is to prevent voter fraud although not one jot of evidence has been produced in any of the 30 States that this represents a problem. These moves, that will impact on minorities and other constituencies, that traditionally favor the Democrats, have been vigorously challenged in court and the process is ongoing. The USA constitution’s Fifteenth Amendment clearly states that, “The Right of Citizens of the United States shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or Any State … on account or race, color or previous servitude.” This issue has still to be resolved in the courts but if the Supreme Court’s 5 - 4 ruling that certain Southern States no longer have to fulfill the mandate of Civil Rights Legislation, which was there to protect minority voters, is a pointer, one can look for another inexplicable interpretation of the Constitution by the so called majority Constitutional “purists”.
So it appears that the technicals and especially the tactics of the GOP favor a swing to the Republicans in the mid terms.
THE STAKES.
The House of Representatives, 36 Senate seats, State legislatures and Office Bearers, including Governors are on the November ballot. No pundit seriously believes that the Dems have the remotest chance of making any inroads in the House of Representatives. For the moment all attention, such as there is, is focussed on the Senate. Of the 36 Seats 16 are considered marginal. The Republicans need six gains to take over the Senate. Fox News has little doubt that this will be achieved and are running a competition as to which the six will be. The way the analysts are calling it the Republicans have three in the bag, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. There is one other North Carolina that is all but certain which means that the Republicans have to win two of the twelve closely contested seats remaining, most of which are considered “toss ups”.
The Governorships are also up in the air but several of the States have not as yet had their Primaries so even the bravest are not making too many predictions about these outcomes.
THE REALITY
If it is all so cut and dried why are all the expositors in the next breath saying its to close to call. Ladbrokes the British Bookmaking Company that will bet on anything that moves, including whether there will be a white Christmas or not, have not a “book” on the American midterm elections. They will give you 5/1 on Marc Rubrio and even 33/1 if you care to have a small wager on Sarah Palin being the Republican Presidential nominee in 2016. The, swaggering confident Ted Cruz could clean up a fortune by putting a year’s salary and increasing it 16 fold. The odds on Hillary being the Democratic nominee are prohibitive but a Democrat is odds on favorite to being the President in 2016 and guess who that might be? So even Ladbrokes are not even going to venture setting out odds as to how the midterms are going to pan out. Even they who have experts on everything and anything coupled with intelligence including the 2016 election are stymied.
THE REAL REALITY - DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICIES
In what is obviously going to be a low turnout election how can anyone know who ultimately will show? None of these analysts are applying their minds to two of the ultimate deciders of where this Country’s direction is going to trend, the demographics of the voters and the policies of the Parties. The demographics favor the Democratic Party and there are not too many, if any, major positions that the Republicans have taken that have the support of the majority of the electorate. Also in a fully participatory election which Republican Party are you voting for the Tea Party faction or the Grand Old Party?
Policies
Jay H. Ell cannot imagine another situation where a major political party is so so out of sync with the majority of the electorate. On virtually every issue from guns, to LGBT rights, equal pay for women, the support of women’s life and contraceptive choices, gun control, the raising of the minimum wage, non intervention in foreign disputes to name but some of the hot button issues the GOP are on the wrong side. However, the hardy faithful of the GOP are among those who disagree even if they don’t represent the majority of the Republicans they at least vote!
Demographics
But at the end of the day it depends on who comes out to vote in the Democratic base. Will African Americans in higher numbers than usual in the midterms be so incensed that they will vote? Can Obama persuade the youth that elected him that the alternative is to ghastly to contemplate even though he, Obama, could not turn activism into policy? Will the women, who in a recent poll affirmed that the Republican Party were uncaring make a detour to vote in greater numbers than expected? Are the Latinos angry enough at the GOP for not doing anything about immigration reform or not doing anything to help legalizing the 12 million of their “illegals”, to work themselves up into a big enough lather to be there in greater numbers than expected?
The Dems are more than aware of these variables but are short on money more than anything else. Their pleas to their base for more donations are reaching hysteria,
The Dems are thus making a determined organized attempt to mobilize these groups. For example Representative John Lewis, a veteran of the Civil Rights movement is leading the charge on behalf of the Black Congressional Caucus. The New York Times reports that NBA players are part of the effort to cajole Black Voters to Register. There is concentration in four States where a high African American vote will determine the result. In Georgia and Louisiana they represent 30% of the population, North Carolina 22% and Arkansas 15%. According to the New York Times in black churches and black talk radio African Civil Rights leaders are citing the Ferguson tragedy and all its implications, (Blog: “Ferguson - The Media, Race, Police and The USA Justice System”), coupling it with the Trayvon Martin killing, (Blog: Trayvon - All You Need To Know”), as reasons for making an impact for change. The Mayor of Atlanta, Kassim Reed, maintained that the “majority community” have underestimated the fury engendered at Michael Brown’s death in Ferguson. Both Reed and Al Sharpton, who is almost unrecognizable from his “loose cannon” past and who has a vast radio and TV audience have stated that the only way to effect change is through the ballot box.
The Democratic Party also know, for example, that if their four women candidates in the South win, one of whom is slightly ahead in the polls against Mitch McConell, the Republican leader in the Senate, they will not lose the Senate and deal the Republicans a devastating blow by knocking out their leader. This would precipitate a crises between the Tea Party faction and the establishment in the internecine battle for Republican leadership in the Senate.
The “unpopular” Obama, holds the key to two other constituencies - the youth and the Latinos. He has to go into campaign mode and those that are mesmerized by him will pitch up in their droves. In addition he should take what ever executive action he can to mobilize the Latinos. What are the Republicans going to do? Attack him and seal their fate forever as this demographic grows and grows.
Jay H. Ell believes the Democrats should relax cause even if they lose the writing is on the wall. In fact if the Republicans cannot win this one with all that they have in their favor they may as well regroup, split with the Tea Part and start organizing for 2020.
THE REAL REAL REALITY
The one confrontation that Ladbroke have a book on is the 2016 election and like everyone else believe that Hillary is an odds on favorite to win. In Presidential elections there is a turnout and the demographic factors that are in the Dems favor will come into play. Hillary will coat tail a major Democratic landslide. The Republicans don't even know who they are. The battle between the Tea Party and the establishment for the soul of the party wages on. They have no coherent policies on anything. Where they have expressed opinions such as on wealth distribution and taxation, equal pay, contraceptive and abortion rights for women, health care and the minimum wage they are way behind in the public’s frame of reference. So whatever happens in 2014 is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.
So what if the GOP win the Senate with fifty - one seats? Will they be able to effect anymore than the Democrats were able to do with fifty - five? They can be filibustered till kingdom come.
So Obama go for the gap. Don’t hold back on any of your projected moves on Executive Action for Immigration Reform, for example. Not only will it be the right move morally but it will pay off in the very short term. Don’t be persuaded by the party hacks who cannot think further than this election. History is on your side and take strength from Mandela whose mantra was “Its a Long Walk to Freedom”.
As an aside the electoral campaign traditionally starts on Labor Day, September 1. Nobody has stated what year in September that this dour, dogged, dirty, degrading and demented election begun.
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