OBAMA’S LEGACY - TAKE 1

With political interpretation and commentary on several news channels, newspapers and on the internet, 24/7, deafening us all and drowning out all the surround sound, rushes to judgement have become the order of the day. Politicians get to hear their eulogies and funeral orations, solemnly and definitively compiled long before they are even ill let alone dead. This even though any historian will tell you that it takes centuries, as George W. from his easel keeps reminding us, to put their deeds, words and actions into a historical context with all the variables taken into account.

So let it be with Obama. 

IN THE BEGINNING

It is fair to say that Obama’s legacy is ensured, if only by one fact and one alone - he is the first African American President to be elected and as such represents a giant leap in racial equality in the USA. Although he would be the first to admit there is a long, long, long way to go and that the circumstance is more symbolic than real. In addition this is the last actuality that he would like to base his legacy on. He has worked so hard to be a President for all Americans.

As exited as the majority of the country was at his elevation to the Presidency as angry and disheartened the Republicans were. So much so that they have spent 6 years doing nothing but trying, first, to prevent him from winning a second term and from the word go to frustrate, ignore and humiliate him. Their agenda now is to sue him and impeach him, which action will be purely political. (Blogs: Obama and the Lynch Mob and Obama a Lying Disgraceful President - Why?). No- one in living memory, certainly not in the last 120 years, can recall such a vicious attack on the Office of Presidency. Again, this distinction is not one he would have aspired to as he had orated again and again, “There are no blue States, there are no red States there is only the United States of America”. He so so much wanted to be a unifier and the Republicans would have none of it. 

So Obama, himself, started out with unrealistic great expectations that were shared by an American electoral majority and the world. He was greeted by ecstatic crowds throughout by a hopeful, youthful, multicultural and female America. The world too saw him as breathe of fresh air and this was epitomized by him being prematurely awarded the Nobel Peace Prize that even he was embarrassed by. 

AGENDA.

Obamacare

He had an ambitious agenda with the number one priority being health care for all. At that stage of his Presidency he was still heavily into bipartisanship and the chosen model for his health care plan was the Republican Governor’s, Romneycare, that had been derived from the Conservative think tank, the Heritage Foundation. This rather than a single payor system that he would have preferred. Obama was then to learn the hard way that anything that he did, regardless of whether it was Republican party policy or not, would be fought till the death. Obamacare, 5 years later, is still under siege by the Republican Party with the assistance of the Supreme Court. However, Jay H. Ell believes it is too far entrenched and is a fact of life. In what ever fashion it is modified it will remain Obama’s number one legacy. As the Republican, David Bergen, the highly respected CNN commentator and advisor to four Presidents has maintained. Universal Health Care has been an objective of Presidents for a century and Obama achieved what none of them could do and that included Teddy Roosevelt, Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton. 

Foreign Policy

Iraq and Afghanistan

Obama made it quite clear that he wanted out from Iraq and Afghanistan after he had put the latter on a sound footing. It was assumed that he would sort out the Taliban and get rid of Osama Bin Laden. Well, he certainly fulfilled his mandate of getting out of both countries but how well he did in neutralizing the Taliban is a moot point. Although, as the Russians could have told him, the Taliban would never lose and just wait him out. So to his credit he didn’t stick around to prove the Russians right. It took a gutsy move to send the Marine Seals in after Osama as he risked a massive political fall out if the mission failed.

Bearing in mind that everyone except Cheney is blaming Bush for the Iraqi mess and that the Afghanistan President Karzi was worse than useless, Obama achieved what he set out to do in both these countries.

The Philosophy of his Foreign Policy

There is little doubt, whether stated in so many words or not, that Obama has made a decision that he is not going to put American boots on the ground unless America itself is under threat. In addition he has also publicly stated that America cannot control the world. 

He has made much use of drones to neutralize terrorists which enterprise has been underreported. This, in sum, represents a major change in American foreign policy and it is in sync with the public’s mood. His policy is not non - interventionism per se but no American’s life will be put at risk for an existential objective. He also has as an overriding principle to obtain as much international support as is feasible for any intervention, although he is not afraid to act alone should circumstances warrant it.

Obama has been flexible in his use of alternative options to influence outcome. He was prepared to bomb in Libya, supply ammunition and develop defense capabilities to Israel, and supply humanitarian aid to Syria opposition groups and the Ukraine. ( His personal animus with Netanyahu has lead to the perception that he is not as pro Israel as the rest of the country.)

 However, he has been the first to use the massive financial levers at his control to effect change. 

Obama has pioneered the use of financial sanctions as a weapon to effect political ends  These he has employed against Russia and Iran. He has used these to force the Iranians to the table to negotiate on their nuclear policy to the extent that the immediate past head of the Israeli secret service does not believe Iran currently represents a nuclear threat. Also Obama has put the megalomaniac Putin in his place by piling on the financial pressures that America either controls directly or indirectly. Putin, like all bullies, will back off. However, Obama’s cutting assessment that Russia is no longer a world power will stick. This he has done without even sending Ukraine munitions.

So Obama has dramatically changed America’s militaristic foreign policy, involving invasion or military support, by the increased use of drones and stratagems from providing munitions to humanitarian aid to doing nothing. He has effectively used the world of finance, that America still controls, as a highly efficacious weapon for tellingly bringing American pressure to bear. This represents a one hundred and eighty degree change of former USA foreign policy and has not as yet been fully acknowledged and indeed will be a central slice of his legacy.

Domestic Agenda

Obama’s domestic agenda was all encompassing and in retrospect overly ambitious. He was seeking to redress all financial, gender and citizen inequality. He was going to do it all in 8 years. This, with his universal health care plan lead to smears of being socialist and anti capitalist. The Republicans seeing this as a threat to the American way of life have been merciless in their attacks on him and have jettisoned the way American government works in an attempt to thwart him. (Jay H. Ell believes by so doing the Republicans have sacrificed any chance of winning the White House for years to come but more about that later). 

Obama has thus been left to his own, in the main, to put into place this agenda. He has used two main stratagems. First and foremost he has been in an ongoing campaign mode. At the stump, he is at his strongest. His ability to connect with an audience is unparalleled on the American scene and has not been witnessed since Martin Luther King. Secondly, he has judiciously flexed his muscle as the Chief Executive, as the head of the American Government, to advance his priorities. (This less than any preceding President but so much where it matters that he has been accused of being an Imperial President). In his capacity as President there is so much he can do and no more.

Inequality

Wealth

As the wealth gap gets greater between the top 1% and the rest, Obama attempted to employ the standard mechanism used by Governments to redress this imbalance - raise the taxes on the richest.  Another game plan is to lock their loopholes from evading tax - more than a cottage industry in the United States - but this has been to no avail. The Republicans have fought this as an article of faith, almost all having signed pledges to a non elected Republican leader, Grover Norquest, that they would never raise taxes. Moreover the Republicans insisted on cutting spending on social programs for those most in need. Another Republican mantra that thwarted this objective was their insistence that programs that were normally funded could not go forward unless their were spending cuts everywhere else.

Maneuvering and innovative juggling allowed several of the programs to remain intact and Obamacare which also increases the Public Medical Insurance, Medicaid, helped no end. Also by laying down a minimum wage for all Federal employes and contractors to the Federal Government he set an example that was followed by certain States and employers.

But all in all this income gap remains a pressing need to be met. 

Gender

Obama by campaigning and again by using his ability to control the Federal payroll attempted to decrease the 30% disparity in income between women and men for equal work in Federal facilities. In addition he prioritized that all women’s health care needs would be met. This latter endeavour has subsequently been hobbled by the Supreme Court. He did away with any discrimination between same sex couples and backed the LGBT group. This is the one area that seemed to gain traction throughout the country as court after court threw out State legislation banning same sex marriage. Even the Supreme Court  was on sides with this thrust, not because they suddenly became radical but rather Justice Kennedy who always votes with the conservatives, in a split court, is a strong supporter of Gay Rights.

Student Debt

Due to rising student college tuition fees and unashamed predatory practices, by a growing industry of for profit and not for profit private Colleges, a crisis akin to the mortgage loan outrage has emerged. The combined student loan at present is of the order of the mortgage debt that caused the financial crash in 2008. The debt is over a trillion dollars. Obama has been all for regulating these rapacious policies that lure students who are ill equipped to enter College by promising them endless opportunities when they attain a college degree. He has attempted to decrease some of the high percentage interest loans and negate or reduce some of these loans with no success.

Gun Control

In spite of making this a key issue campaigning and publicly being seen as a chief mourner, in the wake of mass shootings, gun reform never got to first base. This, like all his legislative priorities have widespread public support but the Republican Party was loathe to antagonize their base and thwarted progress here as with all Obama’s initiatives. However, his lead has been a spur as two new groups are full time championing the cause of reform. Gabbie Giffords a former Congresswoman who was gunned down in a mass shooting as well as the well healed former Mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg, have formed organizations to put this forefront before the electorate. Bloomberg’s group is sponsoring pro reform candidates.

Climate

The Supreme Court Gods backed Obama’s Environmental Protection Agency’s controls on emissions but warned that any more climate control regulations would have to come from the Congress not by Executive fiat. Obama has successfully stalled a Canadian oil pipeline, that would course across the country, that according to conservationists would wreak havoc on the environment. He has a prospective Bill on this subject that, you guessed it, is going nowhere.

Immigration Reform

This has to be the top domestic priority what with the most recent crisis on the border with tens of thousands of children refugees, from central America, milling around in camps and seeking refugee status. There are also 11 million, overwhelmingly Mexican, “illegals” in the country that have become a festering sore in the nations psyche. Obama wants a comprehensive Immigration Reform Bill which the Senate has given him but the Republican House has demurred. The Republicans have held out with the lame excuse that there is no border security. However in this latest crisis the children have walked up to border guards and asked for sanctuary. So there they sit in limbo. Prior to this Obama issued an Executive order allowing all undocumented children that were brought here before 2009 to remain without threat. As things are at the moment Obama has threatened Executive Action again.

ADMINISTRATION OF THE GOVERNMENT

The perception is that this has been a shambles. Obama seems not really to know what is going on and everybody seems to be doing their own thing. Name Jay H. Ell one member of the WhiteHouse staff now that Emmanuel and Axelrod have left. One can name plenty from the Clinton or Bush administration but no - one just slips of the tongue for his administration. Obama is inevitably surprised by any “scandal” that hits the fan and seems out of the loop. Jay H. Ell believes that it his Adminstrative style, or lack of it, that has resulted in the electorate lumping him with the dysfunctional Congress even though he is in sync with their agenda. 

AT NOT QUITE AT THE END OF THE DAY

Obama’s legacy will by far greater than anyone imagines. He has highlighted a social revolution that is taking place in this country but has been thwarted at every turn. His centerpiece legislation, whether in its original form or not, will have changed health care delivery forever. He has precipitated the disintegration of the Republican Party and whether that shows up in this election or later in 2016 is irrelevant. The Republicans cannot hope to salvage any sort of national platform. The demographics will kill them - they opposed legislation on every possible group that they need to become a real force again.

However, if his election to the Presidency has shown one fact - it is that it is heavy going for an inexperienced legislator to become the chief executive. He would have been in a much better position to be running for President in 2016 with a more comprehensive knowledge of how it all works and in a better position to manipulate the levers of power.  But all in all he has passed a willing electorate onto a wily and experienced Hillary. A citizenry that is supportive of change that they both share. America cannot afford another 8 years of non governance - a happenstance for which the Republicans are largely responsible. (Blog: Is USA Ready For The Westminster Parliamentary Model?).

Watch this space for further takes……