THE CLIMATE CHANGES ON CLIMATE CHANGE:

THE CLIMATE CHANGES ON CLIMATE CHANGE:

 Pope Francis has called on all Christians to become the “Custodians of Creation” and to tackle climate change, “Because if we destroy creation creation will destroy us. Never forget this”, he concluded. In addition, the former Chief Rabbi of the British Commonwealth, Lord Jonathan Sacks, told a group of Jewish Scholars that the most important issue of our time, is not the increasing antipathy towards religion, the Middle East or Israel’s survival, but climate change. So you have to know the issue is pretty serious.

These statements come almost contemporaneously with the Supreme Court ruling, 7 - 2, to uphold the Environmental Protection Agency’s, (EPA), ability to control emission limits on big industry. In the same news cycle, “The Risky Business Organization” with a powerhouse of participants across the political and business spectrum issued a devastating prognostication as to what would happen to the country’s economy and standard of living if the carbon dioxide levels were not drastically curtailed. In addition a billionaire stated that he would spending a $100,000,000 on the 2014 election on candidates that back climate control.

So one has to believe that there has been some divine intervention.

POLITICAL REALITY

So finally, in almost a nano second,those who support Climate Control are no longer flakes and those who don’t will soon be joining the flat earthers. The catch will be turning this into political action. The GOP has attacked Obama again and again when he is on his climate gig maintaining that he is using it as a wedge issue against the Republicans. The Democrats are riding it high and see the same signs in the stars as they saw with same sex marriage. The Tea Party wear their label as flat earthers as a badge of honor and truth. In fact if there is going to be any joy from them it will be after 2014 as defending the energy status quo is central to GOP fortunes in crucial Senate elections. Mitch McConnell, GOP leader in the Senate, is fighting for his political life and attacking his opponent as being anti coal.(Not pro climate change).

But lets leave all that for the moment and examine the positive.

SUPREME COURT

The EPA and Obama have taken much into their hands on emission control as the “do nothing” congress has done zilch to meet the problem. So Presidential Executive order and the Environmental Protection Agency interpretation have been moving greenhouse gas regulation along. The EPA has 86% of the current major pollution spewers under control and the Court allowed them 83%. This ruling applies to existing plants. Members of the Court, as part of their judgement, shouted the odds at the agency and are obviously not very happy at their own decision. The author of the judgement Antonio Scalia, raved on that the EPA were “laying claim to extravagant statutory power over the national economy and asserting that the Statute would be unrecognizable to the Congress that designed it”. The Court made it quite clear that further statutory powers would not easily be granted - Scalia - “We are not willing to stand on the dock while the EPA make a multiyear voyage of Discovery”. The Court stated that any further regulation of energy would need Congress legislation.

However,the EPA was given the go - ahead and the biggest polluters would have to use the best technology available to restrict greenhouse gasses. For this they needed new facilities or upgrades as fast as possible.The EPA greeted the verdict enthusiastically maintaining that, “Today was a good day for all supporters of clean air and public health and those concerned for creating a better environment for future generations”.

OBAMA’S CLEAN POWER PLAN

It remains to be seen how the Clean Power Plan announced by the EPA on June 2, 2014 will fair in the Supreme Court. The powers that Obama announced here are more comprehensive and extensive than in the current legislation. Here the focus will be on States where the hope is that carbon emissions will be reduced. The State is given flexibility in how it effects change. The goal has been set to reduce greenhouse gasses by 30% by 2030. A formula has been defined as to how to measure carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector. A mix of making power plants more energy efficient, improving their operations and relying more on low carbon energy producing making entities are the potential remedies. The EPA notes that nearly all states have one or other method for reducing Carbon emissions.

There are also activities that are taking place in the market place that have already had an impact. The availability of an excess of cheap natural gas has made a sizable dent in the usage of coal as an energy source. 

So there is no doubt that the carbon dioxide curbs have taken a life of their own.

RISKY BUSINESS PROJECT ON THE ECONOMIC RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

An organization entitled Risky Business, with a top profile management, set into motion a research project to evaluate the destruction and economic devastation that failure to introduce climate containment may bring about. The data was obtained from peer reviewed science climate projections through the year 2100. Also empirical estimates of the effect that the pollution would have on temperature, sea levels, precipitation and storm activity were derived. Furthermore calculations were made as to how this would impact the US economy. 

The findings listed named the probable hardest hit regions in the US. In addition the data analyzed the impact high seas would have on coastal properties and infrastructure, the outcome of extreme heat on health, labor output and additional energy needs and in agricultural output.

 Before going any further the management team involved must be introduced as their status lends profound gravitas to the findings. 

Membership.

The Co Chairmen are Former New York Mayor and gun reform advocate, billionaire Michael Bloomberg, Hank Paulson,the legendary Secretary of the Treasury under George W. Bush and Tom Steyer a prominent businessman who has been active in many philanthropic activities including the Warren Buffet and Bill Gates, “Giving Pledge Organization” where the participants have pledged the majority of their fortune to charity.

The  additional members are George Schultz, a doyen of the Republican establishment having occupied several cabinet positions in several administrations, Robert Rubin, the whizz kid who was responsible for the Clinton economic success, Donna Shalala, Clinton’s Secretary of Health, Olympia Snowe the highly respected veteran Republican ex Senator, Henry Cisneros former Mayor of San Antonio and Secretary of HUD, prominent businessman Gregory Page and Al Sommer former Dean of John Hopkin’s School of Public Health. All of them are still active in Foundations and the like and represent, with the Co Chairmen more credibility than any political commission or research group that could be put together.

Findings.

An early observation by the group was that failure to address the issue has already brought about change resulting in human suffering and economic loss. Hurricane Sandy on the East Coast, including New York and New Jersey, (who could ever forget that they were involved!), was a freak incident that has been scientifically accredited to climate change. Bloomberg, in his Executive summary points to the billions of dollars that have already been lost to local economies by altered weather conditions. 

The report thus highlights the urgency to act. It also emphasizes that in addition to the earlier jolts that the damage can grow materially within the next 5 to 15 years. The estimations from higher storm surges will add to the present hurricane costs another 7 billion dollars. Over a similar period of time the crops of corn, wheat, soy and cotton can decrease by 10% to 20% and energy needs will increase to the extent of creating another 200 coal or natural gas plants at a cost of $12 billion per year as a result of the higher temperatures.

The report in general delineates the gloomy forecasts as to what the situation might be look with no intervention by the years 2050 and 2100.

Coastal Properties

The value of properties that will be below sea level decreases rapidly and by 2050 and up to a $100 billion will be lost and by 2100 up to $500 billion. However this figure could be even higher and at high tide it could be up to $1.4 trillion in property damage. In addition the impact of the hurricanes and other storms could be heightened increasing the loss caused by those natural disasters. These effects will be seen mainly in the Southeast of the USA and the whole Atlantic seaboard.

Extreme Heat

By 2050 the number of days the average American will experience heat above 95F will treble up to 50 days a year and by the end of the century up to a 100. However in the upper Midwest, Southwest and Southeast these temperatures might be present for months on end. This will impact productivity, health and energy costs. Without effective air conditioning the deaths from heat stroke and dehydration will increase appreciably. 

Agriculture

The projected diminutions in supply of corn, soy, wheat and cotton over the century, mainly in the Southeast, Great Plains and Midwest, are as high as 70%. It is hoped that the warmer temperatures and carbon fertilization by increasing productivity in the upper Northern areas and upper Great Plains may compensate for some of these losses. But such a reduction in staple crops has to produce widespread chaos with increased costs of staples and even deaths by starvation.

RESPONSE NEEDED

As this is fundamentally a business assessment suggestions are made to that community as well. Also adaptations need to be made urgently as climate change has already had an impact.

The business community most largely affected is agriculture. Changing crops will involve financial loss in the process as well as cost for new equipment. In addition construction in coastal areas has to change it’s building codes and materials. Although business can do its share as can local communities and States but as the report maintains the response is going to need a coordinated national effort. Likewise investors need to take climate variables into their calculations. The Securities Exchange Commission in 2010 issued guidelines to companies to assess and disclose their risk from climate change yet 40% of the companies in the Standard and Poor index have not as yet done so.

The report, while urging the business community to become actively involved, acknowledges that the onus to meet this challenge really lies predominantly in the Public Sector. It quotes an intergovernmental report stating that there is really only 15 years to act before the situation becomes intolerable. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

It really will all come down to Congress. The Supreme Court have served notice that they have let the President and the EPA go this far and no further. For anything to happen it will require a seismic change in attitude by the current GOP in Congress. (In fact the Republicans are so angry about the President acting so effectively on his own that they are taking him to court on his alleged misuse of Executive Power).  

One might hope that this authoritative bipartisan and expert Risky Business Report would have some influence on Congress, but don’t hold your breath. (There still is Tom Steyer, one of the co chairman of this report, who is backing climate change candidates with a $100 million dollars. Unbelievably, this is peanuts in relation to the money being thrown into the ring of Congressional elections these days). Really, what will it take for our legislature to acknowledge its responsibilities? Nothing it seems. All those shootings yet the NRA still rule supreme. Ninety - five percent of women have used contraception yet it is still a big issue in the Republican Party. And on and on. One just has to believe the electorate will wake up to the issues they indicate are their priorities and reflect their choices at the ballot box. Remember what Winston Churchill said, “You can trust America to do the right thing after they have tried everything else”. He should have known his mother was American.